Rick Stuchberry on BNN – January 21, 2019

[vc_row][vc_column][ultimate_spacer height=”30″][/vc_column][/vc_row][vc_row][vc_column][vc_column_text]Rick Stuchberry returned for Market Call on BNN Bloomberg this week, on January 21st.

He discusses Canadian large caps and international ADR’s while providing his market outlook, top picks, and answering viewer questions.

Full Episode | 46:08

See clips below:[/vc_column_text][ultimate_spacer height=”50″][vc_row_inner][vc_column_inner width=”1/4″][vc_single_image image=”1473″ img_size=”full” img_link_target=”_blank” onclick=”custom_link” link=”https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/video/chris-stuchberry-s-market-outlook~1468097″][ultimate_spacer height=”30″][/vc_column_inner][vc_column_inner width=”3/4″][vc_column_text]

Rick Stuchberry’s Market Outlook 4:26

Rick discusses his outlook on the markets | 4:17[/vc_column_text][/vc_column_inner][/vc_row_inner][vc_row_inner][vc_column_inner width=”1/4″][vc_single_image image=”1502″ img_size=”full” img_link_target=”_blank” onclick=”custom_link” link=”https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/video/chris-stuchberry-s-top-picks~1468425″][ultimate_spacer height=”30″][/vc_column_inner][vc_column_inner width=”3/4″][vc_column_text]

Top Picks – January 21, 2019 

Rick discusses his Top Picks:  Tencent, Alibaba and Teck Resources | 6:57[/vc_column_text][/vc_column_inner][/vc_row_inner][vc_row_inner][vc_column_inner width=”1/4″][vc_single_image image=”1503″ img_size=”full” img_link_target=”_blank” onclick=”custom_link” link=”https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/video/chris-stuchberry-s-past-picks~1468334″][ultimate_spacer height=”30″][/vc_column_inner][vc_column_inner width=”3/4″][vc_column_text]

Past Picks – January 21, 2019

Rick reviews his past picks: ING Groep, Royal Bank of Canada and SpinMaster | 4:56[/vc_column_text][/vc_column_inner][/vc_row_inner][ultimate_spacer height=”30″][vc_column_text]Click on the links below for Rick’s outlook on select company stocks:

Canadian Tire | 1:21

Maxar Technologies  | 1:20

Crombie REIT| 1:23

AltaGas| 2:52

Magna International| 1:15

Franco Nevada | 0:44

Crescent Point Energy | 3:20

Open Text | 1:05

HSBC | 0:45

Precision Drilling| 1:21

Lloyds Banking Group | 1:47

Pizza Pizza Royalty | 2:09

BCE| 1:19[/vc_column_text][/vc_column][/vc_row][vc_row][vc_column][ultimate_spacer height=”30″][vc_column_text]If you have investment-related questions, feel free to give us a call, always happy to chat.

The Stuchberry Group

647.484.3111[/vc_column_text][/vc_column][/vc_row]

Chris Stuchberry on BNN – November 7

[vc_row][vc_column][ultimate_spacer height=”30″][/vc_column][/vc_row][vc_row][vc_column][vc_column_text]Chris Stuchberry returned for Money Manager on BNN Bloomberg this week, on November 7th.

He discusses looking to the US markets for where the TSX will go.

Full Episode

[/vc_column_text][ultimate_spacer height=”50″][vc_row_inner][vc_column_inner width=”3/4″][/vc_column_inner][/vc_row_inner][vc_row_inner][vc_column_inner width=”1/4″][ultimate_spacer height=”30″][/vc_column_inner][vc_column_inner width=”3/4″][/vc_column_inner][/vc_row_inner][vc_row_inner][vc_column_inner width=”3/4″][/vc_column_inner][/vc_row_inner][ultimate_spacer height=”30″][vc_column_text]Click on the links below for Chris’s outlook on select company stocks:

Chartwell Retirement | 1:26

CI Financial | 1:17

Square| 1:04

AltaGas| 1:32

HSBC| 1:06

Alcanna | 2:19

Bausch Health | 1:54

Pembina Pipeline | 1:08

Dollarama | 1:35

Shopify | 2:21

Manulife | 2:08

Canadian Tire | 1:36

SNC-Lavalin | 1:24

Enbridge | 2:23

First Quantum Minerals | 2:47

Scotiabank | 1:38

Lloyds Bank | 1:21

CN Rail | 1:18[/vc_column_text][/vc_column][/vc_row][vc_row][vc_column][ultimate_spacer height=”30″][vc_column_text]If you have investment-related questions, feel free to give us a call, always happy to chat.

The Stuchberry Group

647.484.3111[/vc_column_text][/vc_column][/vc_row]

Rick Stuchberry on BNN – November 6, 2018

[vc_row][vc_column][ultimate_spacer height=”30″][/vc_column][/vc_row][vc_row][vc_column][vc_column_text]Rick Stuchberry returned for another market call on BNN Bloomberg this week, on November 6th.

He discusses Canadian large caps and international ADR’s while providing his market outlook, top picks, and answering viewer questions.

Full Episode | 46:08

See clips below:[/vc_column_text][ultimate_spacer height=”50″][vc_row_inner][vc_column_inner width=”1/4″][vc_single_image image=”1473″ img_size=”full” img_link_target=”_blank” onclick=”custom_link” link=”https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/video/chris-stuchberry-s-market-outlook~1468097″][ultimate_spacer height=”30″][/vc_column_inner][vc_column_inner width=”3/4″][vc_column_text]

Rick Stuchberry’s Market Outlook

Rick discusses his outlook on the markets | 4:17[/vc_column_text][/vc_column_inner][/vc_row_inner][vc_row_inner][vc_column_inner width=”1/4″][vc_single_image image=”1502″ img_size=”full” img_link_target=”_blank” onclick=”custom_link” link=”https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/video/chris-stuchberry-s-top-picks~1468425″][ultimate_spacer height=”30″][/vc_column_inner][vc_column_inner width=”3/4″][vc_column_text]

Top Picks – November 6, 2018

Rick discusses his Top Picks:  Teck Resources, Bank of America and Home Depot | 5:10[/vc_column_text][/vc_column_inner][/vc_row_inner][vc_row_inner][vc_column_inner width=”1/4″][vc_single_image image=”1503″ img_size=”full” img_link_target=”_blank” onclick=”custom_link” link=”https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/video/chris-stuchberry-s-past-picks~1468334″][ultimate_spacer height=”30″][/vc_column_inner][vc_column_inner width=”3/4″][vc_column_text]

Past Picks – November 6, 2018

Rick reviews his past picks: Royal Bank of Canada, Tencent Holdings and Alimentation Couche-Tard | 4:52[/vc_column_text][/vc_column_inner][/vc_row_inner][ultimate_spacer height=”30″][vc_column_text]Click on the links below for Rick’s outlook on select company stocks:

Loblaw | 1:10

Banco Santander | 1:09

Maxar Technologies| 1:06

AltaGas| 2:12

Scotiabank| 0:54

Vermillion Energy | 1:50

Lloyds Bank versus ING Groep | 2:16

WSP Global | 0:41

Dollarama | 2:06

Pembina Pipeline| 1:21

Keyera | 1:25

Spin Master | 1:35

Citigroup | 1:28

National Bank | 1:26

Bombardier | 1:03

Interest Rates and Utility Stocks | 1:58

Marijuana Stocks | 3:14

Shopify| 1:03[/vc_column_text][/vc_column][/vc_row][vc_row][vc_column][ultimate_spacer height=”30″][vc_column_text]If you have investment-related questions, feel free to give us a call, always happy to chat.

The Stuchberry Group

647.484.3111[/vc_column_text][/vc_column][/vc_row]

Chris Stuchberry on BNN – October 17

[vc_row][vc_column][ultimate_spacer height=”30″][/vc_column][/vc_row][vc_row][vc_column][vc_column_text]Chris Stuchberry returned for another market call on BNN Bloomberg this week, on October 17th.

He discusses various North American large caps and ADRs while providing his market outlook, top picks, and answering viewer questions.

Full Episode | 45:40

See clips below:[/vc_column_text][ultimate_spacer height=”50″][vc_row_inner][vc_column_inner width=”1/4″][vc_single_image image=”1473″ img_size=”full” img_link_target=”_blank” onclick=”custom_link” link=”https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/video/chris-stuchberry-s-market-outlook~1468097″][ultimate_spacer height=”30″][/vc_column_inner][vc_column_inner width=”3/4″][vc_column_text]

Chris Stuchberry’s Market Outlook

Chris discusses his outlook on the markets | 5:28[/vc_column_text][/vc_column_inner][/vc_row_inner][vc_row_inner][vc_column_inner width=”1/4″][vc_single_image image=”1472″ img_size=”full” img_link_target=”_blank” onclick=”custom_link” link=”https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/video/chris-stuchberry-s-top-picks~1468425″][ultimate_spacer height=”30″][/vc_column_inner][vc_column_inner width=”3/4″][vc_column_text]

Top Picks -October 17, 2018

Chris discusses his Top Picks: Couche-Tard, Box Inc and Banco Santander. | 4:25[/vc_column_text][/vc_column_inner][/vc_row_inner][vc_row_inner][vc_column_inner width=”1/4″][vc_single_image image=”1466″ img_size=”full” img_link_target=”_blank” onclick=”custom_link” link=”https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/video/chris-stuchberry-s-past-picks~1468334″][ultimate_spacer height=”30″][/vc_column_inner][vc_column_inner width=”3/4″][vc_column_text]

Past Picks – October 17, 2018

Chris reviews his past picks: Facebook, Alibaba and ING Group | 4:47[/vc_column_text][/vc_column_inner][/vc_row_inner][ultimate_spacer height=”30″][vc_column_text]Click on the links below for Chris’s outlook on select company stocks:

Chartwell Retirement | 1:26

CI Financial | 1:17

Square| 1:04

AltaGas| 1:32

HSBC| 1:06

Alcanna | 2:19

Bausch Health | 1:54

Pembina Pipeline | 1:08

Dollarama | 1:35

Shopify | 2:21

Manulife | 2:08

Canadian Tire | 1:36

SNC-Lavalin | 1:24

Enbridge | 2:23

First Quantum Minerals | 2:47

Scotiabank | 1:38

Lloyds Bank | 1:21

CN Rail | 1:18[/vc_column_text][/vc_column][/vc_row][vc_row][vc_column][ultimate_spacer height=”30″][vc_column_text]If you have investment-related questions, feel free to give us a call, always happy to chat.

The Stuchberry Group

647.484.3111[/vc_column_text][/vc_column][/vc_row]

Stuchberry Group Outlook Newletter | Fall 2018 | Volume 7 Issue 4

 REVIEW

The summer was a humbling experience, markets often do that when you get an air of confidence, it’s the markets job to take that away and make you earn it back.  We gave back a lot of our out performance over the market over the summer, with losses in Maxar and Facebook.  Globally, most markets are continuing their January corrections, which is normal that corrections take six months or longer, sometimes up to a year or two.  Canadian markets are doing very little, and Europe and Asia are languishing, so all of our performance year to date is coming from the USA.  The leading market, however, the Nasdaq continued its bull run and we believe will lead us higher.

We are experiencing a real “Techlash” in the mega cap tech companies, as Facebook and Google find themselves in front of congress continually this year.  Privacy and loss of trust are the primary concerns that markets, governments, and investors are debating.  We conflict on that outcome within our own team, but ultimately these are good companies, with great growth and balance sheets, that may be a bit of dead money for a time period.  That said, our smaller tech company Twilio has become our best performer in recent years, going up 260% year to date.

Our Twilio upside year to date and our sales @ $53.65 and $76

(Source: Bloomberg and Stuchberry Group)

 

Outlook

We wrote in May that we think sell in May and go away was the wrong approach and we were right with regards to the US stocks, but wrong with regard to Canadian and Global stocks.  The latter stocks have continued to struggle and we continue to see further opportunity in the lagging stocks.

The chart below shows that only the US Indexes are higher and Canada, Germany, England, and Hong Kong are all negative Year to Date.

Source: Bloomberg

 

Year to date we have reduced a couple of our US winners and bought more global companies.  We sold Starbucks, Loblaws and some Twilio to pay for purchases in China’s Tencent and more recently a bit of Box Inc in the USA.  Box is a leading company in Cloud Content Management that is making inroads into Artificial Intelligence.  It consistently grows revenue in the mid teens to early 20% range and will become earnings break even in the fourth quarter.  Box trades at a far lower valuation than Twilio and we hope it will have a similar run.

In an unexciting update, with all the interest rate increases in 2018 we have invested capital into lowest risk government of Canada T-bills and US T-Notes at yields of 1.91% and 2.01%.  We have taken many profits over the last couple years and now that we are running a bit of structural cash, it is nice to get a bit of a return on that capital in the risk-free world.  We haven’t been able to do this for nearly five years, so this is a minor win, but we take all wins.

We sound like a broken record mentioning the fact that interest rates must move higher.  Year to date the US Federal Reserve has had three rate hikes good for 75 bps, good to take us from 1.5% to 2.25%, or a 50% increase.  We think the other global central banks are going to have to play a big game of catch-up.  The chart below shows the massive difference between a US and German Bond on the short term to 10 years. The German bonds must go out six years before yields turn positive.

The German Bonds are negative until out six years; we think this spread must fall quickly over the coming years, so we own European banks to take advantage.

(Source: Bloomberg – Stuchberry Group)

 

 

Stuchberry Group Highlights within the Quarter:

 

  1. The move to exit Richardson and join Wellington is a life changing move, since joining, the firms assets have grown over 60% from three billion to nearly five billion in less than a year- our one year birthday of joining is October 13th.
  2. The firm is nearing completion of the US Platform.
  3. We have upgraded our online access for you to view your accounts- contact us if you need assistance, you can go to our website and click through to the new site.
  4. We launched our Healthcare app Maple for eligible clients- contact us if you need assistance.
  5. We had an excellent summer hire with Sophia, and her work on the website and social media functions has resulted in the best web and online structure we have ever had, with measurable results. We are getting over 500 views on our website per month.
  6. The loss of Steve has been absorbed and we are ready to go with Rebecca. We hope to get back to business as usual and growing early next year.
  7. The Team has now doubled it’s media exposure with both of us on BNN regularly.

 

Goals to close the year:

  1. Rebecca to be fully trained by year end.
  2. Realized gains losses assessed and taxes addressed for all clients
  3. Rebecca has been tasked with reducing mail, we will attempt to get all the mail problems sorted in Q4.
  4. Obviously do our best to get portfolios to close the year at all time highs

 

Have a wonderful Thanksgiving with Family,

 

Chris, Rick, Rebecca

Stuchberry Group Outlook Newsletter | Summer 2018 | Volume 7 Issue 2

REVIEW

The year is turning out better than anticipated and we are happy to report most investment themes are performing well in 2018.  Our strength remains to be technology investments, highlighted by Twilio, which is up over 100% year to date.  We are also witnessing great performance in Amazon, Facebook (post-hacking allegations), and Alibaba – all cloud computing companies.  Our modern portfolios are performing as planned, and year-to-date we continue to add to the tech sector as opportunities have presentated themselves. We have bought some more Tencent in Q2 and will likely add to other names if opportunities arise over the summer.

The sector struggling in the portfolio is Financials, more specifically European Financials. Deutche Bank has been our worst performing stock year-to-date – forced to fire their CEO and generally having trouble with their turnaround plan.  We also face a contradiction in global monetary policy; in the USA we have seen two interest rate hikes, but in Europe, they are actually trying to extend Quantitative Easing (forcing interest rates down).  This has caused both shares of European Financials and the euro to fall, both of which hurt our investment – it’s a perfect storm of what we don’t want.

We were surprised to see the damage done to bond yields. It is important to see just how low European bond yields are; Germany is barely 30bps, where Canada and USA are 2.10% and 2.90% respectively.  Germany is actually down 50% top-to-bottom in yields this year.  In our opinion this is not sustainable, European yields must go higher, and when they do, we will be very happy owning European Financials.

Source: Bloomberg

 

 Outlook

We think ‘sell in May and go away’ remains short sighted.  We continue to believe there is a lot of value in the market, even in the sectors with such great performance.  The secular growth trend in the interuption stocks and the digital innovators is still early.  Add the fact that these companies generally have terrific balance sheets that make them immune to rising rate environment.  As an example, when we first bought Facebook, it grew at 35% (yoy), it has grown at over 50% for nearly two years. Amazon was growing at 30% when we bought it – now it is growing at 40%. These companies have accelerated growth.

The recentpoliticial skirmishes will certainly cause short term moves in the markets, but it’s important to note how little it impacts our companies.  Tarriffs and trade war issues only affect things that are actually produced and consumed, and most of our holdings do not produce tangible goods, they are only services, and are unlikely to be affected by tarriffs.

Source: Bloomberg

We believe the market is still in the process of completing the January correction, and at 6 months long it is a proper correction in our eyes.  Looking at the chart above is what gives us optimism. This secular bull market has been led higher by technology companies, and the Nasdaq broke out to new highs in June only to correct down to the old highs. It wouldn’t be surprising to see the main markets take a few more months and join to the upside.  That said, it is very possible for the lagging markets to pull the leaders down with them, but we do not think it is as likely a scenario.  As we have said before, the economy remains strong, we don’t think the tax cuts are fully priced into markets and longer term demographics are looking very good for consumption.  We just had a 10% equity market correction, and have yet to break out higher in major markets.

Our strategy remains unchanged, and in this correction, we are going to hold much more cash than usual to prevent any kind of stress knowing we have at least a year of cashflow in client accounts.  Second, we will continue to add selectively to financials, technology and strong balance sheet stocks in order to safely navigate this transitionary period as global bond markets must normalize over the next 1-3 years.  Once complete, we should be able to safely add some income securities to enhance our cashflow.

 

Update on Business

  1. We have launched our new website – StuchberryGroup.ca and added quite a bit of our content and blogs on markets. Please have a look, and give us your feedback.
  2. Our Twitter and Linkedin profiles are full of new content.
  3. Chris has taken on a more active role on BNN, doing a marketcall in June.
  4. We are in the process of rolling out Maple as a healthcare benefit for Clients who qualify.
  5. The firm continues to grow and has been recognized as one of the most successful startups in retail wealth management.

 

Have a great summer,

Chris, Rick, Steve, Sophia