Unveiling The Path To A 1.75% Federal Funds Rate:
Balancing Churchill’s Caution, Truman’s Expectations, And
Gandhi’s Wisdom In The Age Of Chaos
In the realm of economic forecasting, the concept of a trilemma emerges as a thought-provoking
framework. This trilemma, which I refer to as the Truman-Gandhi-Churchill trilemma (or the TGC
trilemma), encapsulates the perspectives of three influential figures: former British Prime Minister
Winston Churchill, the 33rd President of the United States Harry S. Truman, and the revered
Indian political leader Mahatma Gandhi. It finds relevance in our current situation as we endeavor
to forecast the glide path and resting point for interest rates into 2025. By navigating the TGC
trilemma with caution, practicality, and humility, we seek to uncover insights that challenge
consensus and shed light on the likelihood of interest rates heading lower than currently believed.
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