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THE BEST OF TIMES, THE WORST OF TIMES: A Year in Review As we reflect on the market journey from late 2023 to the present and look ahead to 2025, the resilience and dynamism of the global economy stand out as defining characteristics. Throughout this period, a bullish outlook has

AMERICAN SYSTEM 2.0: A Trump Victory—Propelling the U.S. into a New Gilded Age As the Roman philosopher and statesman Lucius Annaeus Seneca once said: “Yield not to adversity; trust not to prosperity; keep before your eyes the full scope of Fortune’s power, as if she would surely do whatever is

MONEY FOR NOTHING: The Illusion of Easy Wealth in Today’s Economy There are moments in life that leave a lasting impression. For me, two significant memories from the 1985 Live Aid concert stand out: Queen’s iconic performance and Dire Straits, featuring Sting, introducing the world to their classic song Money

THE GREAT DELUSION: Are We Trapped in a Cycle of Change That Never Changes? A Forecast for 2025 and Beyond The Mirage of Recovery: How We’re Fooling Ourselves As we emerge from the shadow of COVID-19, a narrative of robust economic recovery has taken hold. Yet, beneath this veneer of

TRUMP’S TRADE WAR: America’s Imperial Twilight or Dawn of a New Golden Age? A Non Consensus Call for Interest Rates to be “Lower for Longer” The Rise and Fall of the American Empire Tales of empires are as old as civilization itself. From ancient Mesopotamia to Rome, from the Mongols

TRUMP’S FISCAL FRENZY: Godfather of Modern Monetary Theory Warns of “Drunken Sailor” Spending At this very moment, the U.S. faces a fiscal predicament which urgently calls for proactive measures following the 2024 presidential election. The nation’s mounting debt crisis demands immediate attention, yet neither party has outlined a clear strategy

THE GRAND CHESSBOARD: Navigating Geopolitical Investments In the complex arena of global finance, as in geopolitics, strategic positioning can be just as crucial as raw power. This insight comes from Polish-American diplomat and political scientist Zbigniew Brzezinski in his book The Grand Chessboard, which offers a compelling parallel to the

OUT OF OPTIONS: Navigating an Era of Fiscal Dominance, Rate Cuts, and Debt Monetization The Ghost of Arthur Burns U.S. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, deeply mindful of Arthur Burns’ missteps and inspired by Paul Volcker’s tenacity, is fully cognisant of the historical significance of his role. I have consistently

The 2024 Federal Budget, tabled on April 16, 2024, provides a mix of expected measures and a few surprises. In line with the announcements leading up to Budget Day, Budget 2024 outlines a multitude of measures targeted at housing affordability and the cost of living.

GREENSPAN’S GAME OF THRONES: Navigating the Monsters and Bubbles of Today’s Transformative Economy Now is the Time of Monsters We are at a pivotal moment in history, one that former U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan might liken to a historical juncture, where the intertwined narratives obscure the uniqueness of

THE FINANCIAL STORM IS COMING: Navigating China, Fed Tightening, Financial Instability, and Rate Cuts It’s All About Timing Navigating macro investing poses the challenge of not only identifying key events but also timing their occurrence. The hardest part is indeed getting the timing right. With Japan and the United Kingdom

TRUMP’S SHADOW: Echoes of History and Financial Markets in a Post-Pandemic World As we enter a presidential election year in the U.S., financial markets are resonating with historical echoes. One can particularly recognize the rise of populism after the Civil War, which parallels today’s socio-political dynamics. This comparison challenges the

IS THERE SOMETHING ROTTEN IN THE STATE OF CANADA? Part 2: Canada’s 2024 Economic Storm In this sequel to Is There Something Rotten in the State of Canada? we delve further into the complex web of monetary and fiscal policies that seem at odds with one another, evoking the drama

Unveiling The Path To A 1.75% Federal Funds Rate: Balancing Churchill’s Caution, Truman’s Expectations, And Gandhi’s Wisdom In The Age Of Chaos In the realm of economic forecasting, the concept of a trilemma emerges as a thought-provoking framework. This trilemma, which I refer to as the Truman-Gandhi-Churchill trilemma (or the

2024 Forecast: The U.S.’s Tech-Driven Reinvention Ray Kurzweil, computer scientist and futurist, once said, “The past is over; the present is fleeting; we live in the future.” This sentiment echoes through our current moment as we stand on the threshold of an era defined by technological advancement, navigating a myriad

Riding The Bull In The Midst Of Chaos: Investing Strategies For A New Era Of Growth And Innovation In the investment world, volatility and uncertainty often reign, evoking a sense of unease. Remembering the call for 3000 on the S&P 500 Index in late 2022, the recent correction at 4600

Is Something Rotten In The State Of Canada? The Inconvenient Truth: An Alternative Narrative In the grand theatre of Canadian economic governance, a clandestine struggle is waging, echoing the dramatic narratives of Shakespeare’s Hamlet. Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, once dismissive of monetary policy, now finds himself locked in a power

The Fed’s High-Wire Act: Dancing With Inflation, Deflation, And The Whims Of The Market Discretion is the Better Part of Valour The adage, “Discretion is the better part of valour,” has never been more pertinent as the U.S. Federal Reserve cautiously navigates between the perils of inflation and deflation. In

August Market Insights: Unveiling The Crystal Ball

Unveiling The Crystal Ball: A Glimpse Into The Future Of Financial Markets From 2024 To 2030 In early 2021, I presented a thesis regarding the latest inflation episode and its potential economic implications. At that time, I shared a perspective that differed from the prevailing narrative. Allow me to recapitulate

https://vimeo.com/849558623/f8fef57779 July Market Insights: Wall Street Is About To Embrace Crypto, And It’s Not What You Think!

Wall Street Is About To Embrace Crypto, And It’s Not What You Think! There is an old saying, “never let a good crisis go to waste.” And true to form, Wall Street is capitalizing on the current chaos within the digital asset space. Many will be surprised, but those who

The firm with the highest IE rating was, as in 2022, Wellington- Altus Private Wealth Inc., at 9.6 out of 10. The firm’s performance, as rated by advisors across 27 categories, was stable year over year.

Is AI The Next Gold Rush? Terminator vs. R2-D2 Hollywood and Artificial Intelligence (AI): The Emotional Scars Are With Us Today In the movie Terminator, a dystopian society is under attack by artificially intelligent robots that are hell-bent on the destruction of the human species. Skynet is the ultimate doomsday

Huckleberry Finn Is Not Tom Sawyer: The FTX Fiasco Has Nothing To Do With Blockchain Adoption. When one thinks of blockchain, one quickly thinks of Bitcoin, NFTs, and cryptocurrencies. Just as so many confuse Mark Twain’s Huckleberry Finn with Tom Sawyer, to the point where the rock band Rush makes

It Looks Like This Holy Fool Was Right. What Now? Since 2020, I’ve been one of the few holy fools that put forth the thesis that aggressively raising rates into a highly levered global economy would result in another financial crisis. My sin was questioning aggressive rate hikes based on

Budget 2023 outlined the government’s plans to build a stronger, more sustainable and secure Canadian economy against a backdrop of slower global growth, elevated global interest rates, and high inflation.

Fire and Ice: The Fight Between Inflation and Deflation What’s a More Significant Risk, Inflation or Deflation? In this poem, Robert Frost posits the destruction of the world will be due to either intense passion or bitter hatred, i.e., fire vs. ice. Too often, we tend to oversimplify our analysis

Apocalypse Delayed: The U.S. Debt-Ceiling Debate What if the U.S. Government Defaults on its Debt? If the U.S. was to default on its debt obligations, it would cause investors to flee from U.S. Treasuries, leading to a decrease in confidence in U.S. government debt and the U.S. Dollar (USD) as

The 2023 Market Forecast – The Pause that Refreshes “Patience is a form of wisdom,” notes Jon Kabat-Zinn, creator of the Stress Reduction Clinic and the Center for Mindfulness in Medicine at the University of Massachusetts Medical School. It demonstrates that we understand and accept that sometimes things must unfold

After the 1994 midterm elections, gridlock was confirmed and inflation fears subsided. The next year, the Fed cut rates, and risk assets appreciated. The recent Consumer Price Index (CPI) data points to 2023 reversing the inflation shock, interest rate shock, and growing fears of 2022.

Is the Fed repeating the mistake of 1937? In a recent article, Economist Bradford DeLong, shares a conversation he had with U.S. Secretary of the Treasury Janet Yellen, where she said that with the lack of models, the U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) is prone to react to the groupthink of

The Global Economy Has Its Hamlet Moment We have reached a fork in the road. More specifically, the recent criticisms, slings, and arrows of the markets have set the stage for central bankers and the global economy to face their Hamlet moment – “to be” or “not to be” –

The Fed & Its Use of Economic Coercion: This is Not Coin-Flip Policymaking With the recent statement by U.S. Federal Reserve Chair Powell that “overall economic activity appears to have picked up,” after an aggressive 75-bps interest rate hike in June despite slowing economic growth, investors may understandably be confused.

The Fed: From Tragedy to Rebirth? Just Follow the Path of the Credit Markets The first half of 2022 has supported the consensus narrative of “tragedy” that has dominated the financial markets. Indeed, the market pullbacks to start the year have been intense. However, a closer look at the credit

A Secret War to Control the Fed? The Danger of Bowing to Political Pressure With the recent pivot to a highly hawkish stance by the U.S. Federal Reserve — despite the data suggesting the need for continued patience — is the Fed bowing to political pressure? As legendary football coach

Economic and Tax Highlights from the 2022 Federal Budget On April 7, 2022, Canada’s Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Finance, the Honourable Chrystia Freeland delivered her second Federal Budget. The 2022 Federal Budget entitled, “A Plan to Grow Our Economy and Make Life More Affordable” focused primarily on housing,

Detonating a Tactical Financial Nuclear Weapon: Sowing the Seeds of a New Financial World Order? The Ukraine/Russia crisis may mark a historic moment in the evolution of geopolitical balance. While there have been calls for a military response by the West, we should not overlook the significance of the sanctioning

Peak Inflation: Saved by Inertia? There is an aphorism in the medical community that may be fitting to our continuing narrative about the Federal Reserve’s tightening policy: “Don’t just stand there, do nothing.” In medical literature, it’s called “clinical inertia,” reminding us that sometimes stopping and doing nothing before we

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Continue Looking Forward As we begin another year, may we continue to look forward with the hope that the worst of the pandemic is behind us. For almost two years, we’ve each had to endure adversity in our own ways… Read Full Article Here: Q122 Schofield

The Maradona & Cantillon Effects: 2022 — The Year of The Fed! Will the Maradona Effect be pivotal to the Fed’s monetary policy playbook in 2022? Over 25 years ago, when Diego Maradona overcame five defenders to score one of the most memorable goals in World Cup history, he did

Stagnation or Change: Crypto and the End of the Petrodollar Download this article as a PDF. “Just follow the money.”                             – Deep Throat, All the President’s Men In 1972, while Carl Bernstein and Bob Woodward were investigating the break-in of the Democratic National Committee at the Watergate office complex, an

Are You Checking Too Frequently? It has been said that “successful investing should be more like watching paint dry.” Yet, for many investors today, the speed of change in the markets may be conditioning us to think otherwise. In fact, a recent Reuters report suggests that investors on one U.S.

Covid’s Lasting Economic Scar & A Goldilocks 2022? Download this article as a PDF. “This porridge is just right.”                             – Goldilocks and the Three Bears As the delta variant exerts its strength, the world is coming to terms with the sobering reality that Covid-19 is not going away anytime

Information: Not the Same As Advice There is an old saying in the investment industry: “Don’t confuse brains with a bull market.” The inference, of course, is that it’s easy to pick winners when markets are rising. The difficulties come when uncertainties arise, as they always do. With the tremendous

WINNIPEG and TORONTO, May 17, 2021 /CNW/ – Wellington-Altus Private Wealth (Wellington-Altus) has been rated as the number-one overall investment advisory firm in the 2021 Brokerage Report Card, conducted by industry publication, Investment Executive—marking the second consecutive year in the top spot. With an overall rating of 9.8 and nearly a full point above