{"id":1172,"date":"2021-11-01T16:09:12","date_gmt":"2021-11-01T16:09:12","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/advisor.wellington-altus.ca\/crescowealthmanagement\/?p=1172"},"modified":"2021-11-01T16:09:12","modified_gmt":"2021-11-01T16:09:12","slug":"november-market-insights-by-james-thorne","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/advisor.wellington-altus.ca\/crescowealthmanagement\/2021\/11\/01\/november-market-insights-by-james-thorne\/","title":{"rendered":"November Market Insights by James Thorne:"},"content":{"rendered":"

Economic Squid Games: China\u2019s Enduring Mastery of Survival<\/h4>\n

Download this article as a PDF<\/a>.<\/p>\n

\u201c<\/strong>We\u2019ve already come too far to end this now.\u201d<\/strong>
\n\u2013 Sang-Woo,\u00a0<\/strong><\/em>Squid Game<\/strong><\/p>\n

Squid Game is a dark drama set in Korea that depicts the lengths some individuals will go to in order to try and eliminate their extreme levels of debt. Today, we see many countries facing a similar dilemma: decades of strong nominal GDP growth once reduced debt-to-GDP ratios to sustainable levels, but slowing growth has led to a new awakening. Nowhere is this more evident than with China, whose recent troubles with Evergrande have thrust them back into the headlines.<\/p>\n

We suggest that the Evergrande episode has confirmed a new phase in China\u2019s evolution and a transition is now underway. Chairman Xi has already acknowledged the need for structural change, signaling to some investors that he has accepted that he can procrastinate no longer. A new era of \u201cCommon Prosperity\u201d has begun, and investors should take note. We suggest that China will remain a \u201cCrouching Dragon\u201d1 as it implements new policies to facilitate the expansion of credit, which will occur in a more deliberate and nuanced fashion to generate higher-quality and balanced growth in China. In Squid Game, there will be winners and losers: some of the highly indebted players become stronger as they survive the physical and psychological twists needed to advance in the games \u2013 perhaps a fitting allegory on the enduring strength of China as we look forward.<\/p>\n

First: A Brief Lesson in History<\/strong><\/p>\n

The 100th anniversary of the China Communist Party (CCP) was held on July 1st this past summer. Yet, many of us may not remember that at the end of WWII, the West largely ignored China\u2019s significance. In 1949, the CCP declared China\u2019s \u201cindependence,\u201d an event that was met in the West with bitter recriminations and conflict over who was responsible for that loss. This was because the \u201closs of China\u201d2 had major geopolitical and economic consequences. Many western businesses had worked in China for extended periods positioning their business models in anticipation of a post-WWII capitalist China, all of which was lost. Imagine a world in which China was an open and democratic economy driven by market forces since 1949: Would there be concerns about an invasion of Taiwan? Would there have been a Vietnam War?<\/p>\n

Even until the 1970s, the U.S. continued to recognize the Republic of China, located in Taiwan, as China\u2019s true government. Two decades after the \u201closs,\u201d Richard Nixon reversed course and began negotiations with the People\u2019s Republic of China, and the opening of China began. Chinese leader Deng Xiaoping drew on former Soviet leader Vladimir Lenin\u2019s New Economic Policy (NEP), which had saved the Soviet Union from early collapse in 1922. He emulated Lenin by moving the CCP toward a socialist market economy under communism, but with Chinese characteristics. What Deng Xiaoping offered to the West was a market with one-fifth of the world\u2019s population.<\/p>\n

The Myth of Asia\u2019s Growth<\/strong><\/p>\n

China has become an economic superpower largely because it capitalized on its sheer size. Yet, it is following the natural evolutionary process that all countries must follow to become an advanced economy. After decades of neglect under Mao, and with its acceptance into the World Trade Organization in 2001, China entered into a period of rapid growth. In the early phases, the country used its labour cost advantage and decades of infrastructure neglect to develop an economy based on manufacturing exports, urbanization and fixed investments. This phase of credit-fueled growth, typical of developing nations, generated the unbalanced growth and overcapacity we see today. As with any developing nation, this growth cannot last forever and typically ends in a credit crisis.<\/p>\n

China is not unique in its evolution. It is, however, unique in the size of its credit bubble, which, if popped, could generate major global consequences. Economist Paul Krugman\u2019s \u201cThe Myth of Asia\u2019s Miracle,\u201d written two decades ago, saliently argued that Asia\u2019s seemingly dynamic economies, upon closer inspection, displayed \u201cstartlingly little evidence of improvements in efficiency.\u201d3 Their growth relied instead on rapidly increasing inputs, capital and investment. According to Krugman, there was nothing miraculous about Asia\u2019s economic growth. It mirrored the incredible growth rates seen in the Soviet Union after WWII.<\/p>\n

Curiously, Krugman also pointed out that when measuring the growth of the Soviet Union, GDP was calculated differently \u2013 ironically as China does today. The Soviet Union focused on inputs \u2013 not outputs, as the West does. Not surprisingly, Xi gets it: the Chairman often makes distinctions between fictional and genuine growth. China does not have free capital flows in and out of the economy and is now dependent on foreign inflows of capital to support growth.<\/p>\n

In China, the RMB is fixed to the USD. Is it overvalued or undervalued? One thesis often put forward is that the Chinese economy is not as big as consensus believes due to its currency being significantly overvalued. Let\u2019s not forget that in the 1980s when the simple assumption of calculating the (Soviet) CCCP\u2019s4 GDP followed western conventions, policymakers realized that their economy was actually much smaller. This was because the CCCP was spending a vastly larger percentage of its GDP on military expenditures, motivating the Reagan administration to accelerate the arms race in an attempt to bankrupt its cold war adversary, at which they succeeded.<\/p>\n

Transformation: Xi\u2019s Vision of Common Prosperity<\/p>\n

China understands its need to transition. It has fiercely built up its capabilities in innovation and technology to ensure it maintains its global stronghold, just as the Soviet Union recognized that technology was key to maintaining power in the 1950s.<\/p>\n

\n
\"\"
China: Technology Leadership as Demonstrated by 6G<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n

And, yet, China\u2019s recent crackdown to declare bitcoin illegal \u2013 even as it held the global market position in bitcoin mining \u2013 is an example of how planners have a distinct idea of how China will evolve. While this may have appeared perplexing to some, it supports China\u2019s new direction. Cryptocurrencies reduce the power of centralized governments. China already has a central bank digital currency (CBCD) well under development. And, bitcoin mining has increased income disparity, blatantly contravening with China\u2019s new commitment to Common Prosperity.<\/p>\n

What is Common Prosperity?<\/strong><\/p>\n

Common Prosperity\u00a0takes China back to its socialist roots by seeking to achieve prosperity across the masses by narrowing the wealth gap. Common Prosperity\u00a0is not a new ideal in China. In fact, it was first introduced by Mao Zedong in the 1950s, and then repeated by Deng Xiaoping in the 1980s\u00a0when he\u00a0modernized an economy devastated by the Cultural Revolution.\u00a0Today,\u00a0Xi has indicated that it is core to the governing foundations of the CCP, focusing\u00a0efforts\u00a0on cracking down on excesses to eliminate poverty. The government is taking action to curb\u00a0tax evasion, using taxation and other income redistribution levers, as well as encouraging charity and donations.5<\/sup>\u00a0As well, Beijing is following the rest of the world in what may be long overdue:\u00a0reigning in large\u00a0tech giants\u00a0to try and eliminate the monopolistic power that they have\u00a0largely\u00a0assumed.<\/p>\n

The\u00a0ultimate\u00a0end goal? Xi wishes to achieve economic rebalancing to\u00a0move toward more consumption-driven growth\u00a0and\u00a0to reduce reliance on exports and investment. By spurring domestic demand, as well as continuing innovation, the Chinese can become more self-reliant as a nation.<\/p>\n

Many\u00a0Challenges Ahead<\/strong><\/p>\n

The transition will not be an easy one. China still\u00a0lacks the infrastructure to support an advanced economy.\u00a0China is rich in coal, which continues to be its\u00a0main energy source. To be clear, many emerging markets\u00a0still\u00a0rely on coal as their\u00a0main source\u00a0of energy.\u00a0Yet, the\u00a0proportion of coal in the energy consumption structure has fallen to 56.8% in 2020\u00a0as the world moves toward greener alternatives.\u00a0In order for China to be seriously seen\u00a0by the rest of the world\u00a0as an advanced economy, China\u00a0recognizes that it must\u00a0find new green energy sources, but this\u00a0will take time\u00a0\u2013\u00a0it\u00a0cannot be accomplished overnight. At present, the cumulative installed capacity of hydropower, wind\u00a0power\u00a0and solar power in China\u00a0ranks\u00a0number one\u00a0in the world. However, wind\u00a0power\u00a0and solar power\u00a0are volatile\u00a0and intermittent.<\/p>\n

Like many nations, China is turning to nuclear power as a solution.\u00a0However, as\u00a0the energy crisis in Europe has shown,\u00a0transitioning\u00a0to a net-zero green economy takes\u00a0time. Mismanagement of\u00a0this transition phase by policymakers is a risk that investors must put on their radar. We have suggested that the irony\u00a0of the goal of achieving net-zero is that\u00a0it will be\u00a0commodity intensive and\u00a0thus may\u00a0result in a\u00a0commodities\u00a0supercycle.\u00a0Yet, investors\u00a0need to accept that there\u00a0will\u00a0also\u00a0be\u00a0risks\u00a0during\u00a0this transition period.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

\n
\"\"
Countries Most Reliant on Coal for Electricity<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n

As Evergrande reminds us,\u00a0China\u2019s future growth\u00a0cannot be reliant\u00a0on\u00a0the property market.\u00a0Until\u00a0recently, real estate had comprised almost 30 percent of China\u2019s GDP.\u00a0This was largely supported by the belief of sustained growth\u00a0that came with\u00a0the urbanization of such a large population. However, China now faces a demographic problem.\u00a0With an increasingly aging demographic, and the\u00a0now-evident\u00a0consequences of\u00a0its\u00a0one-child policy that lasted from 1980 to 2015, the population is shrinking. As such,\u00a0even if the credit excess is successfully contained,\u00a0the\u00a0demographic situation brings new\u00a0headwinds that are likely to\u00a0result in\u00a0slowing growth and a slowing property market.<\/p>\n

Where to for Investors?<\/strong><\/p>\n

The\u00a0adjustment period is expected to be a precarious one.\u00a0Yet,\u00a0we should not be surprised by Xi\u2019s policy moves. China understands its\u00a0need to\u00a0embark on a long\u00a0journey\u00a0in order to\u00a0evolve into an advanced economy. To be clear, China\u2019s\u00a0policymakers are students of history and\u00a0have always played\u00a0the long game.<\/p>\n

Despite the alarmist views to hit the headlines\u00a0about\u00a0Evergrande\u00a0over recent\u00a0weeks, we suggest that the sky is not falling. Outside of the property market, there are few signs of contagion.\u00a0In fact, China has a robust and growing private sector that\u00a0has almost\u00a0quadrupled over the\u00a0last\u00a0decade.6<\/sup>\u00a0Those\u00a0private\u00a0technology\u00a0companies hit by regulatory tightening over the past year only make up a very small proportion of the entire private sector, which\u00a0continues to innovate,\u00a0strengthen\u00a0and grow.<\/p>\n

\n
\"\"
Private Sector Growth Has Almost Quadrupled Since 2010<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n

However, investors do need to take a nuanced approach when investing in China.\u00a0The tide has turned\u00a0and the\u00a0previous\u00a0gains that manifested themselves in\u00a0ETFs and other passive\u00a0index\u00a0products will not be easily repeated in the future.\u00a0We\u00a0have entered into\u00a0an investing era in which a nimble approach and thoughtful analysis will benefit investors \u2013 this is a stock picker\u2019s market.\u00a0A recent Chinese government bond sale confirms that many foreign investors\u00a0continue to maintain\u00a0confidence in\u00a0the\u00a0China\u00a0opportunity, as they should.\u00a0Over three-quarters of investors in the 30-year bond\u00a0issuance, the longest maturity, were from outside of Asia.7<\/sup><\/p>\n

China has used the shock of the Covid-19 pandemic to begin a new era of economic\u00a0growth, no different than its\u00a0decision in 1949 to reject capitalism and democracy.\u00a0As\u00a0Squid Game<\/em>\u00a0forces us to confront\u00a0the impact of capitalism on modern society, which has driven excessive debt levels\u00a0in individuals, it may be\u00a0mirroring\u00a0the\u00a0situation\u00a0we see\u00a0today\u00a0with\u00a0many\u00a0nations\u00a0globally.\u00a0Like China,\u00a0Gi-hun, the\u00a0last man standing in the\u00a0Squid Game<\/em>,\u00a0reminds us\u00a0to never\u00a0underestimate the\u00a0human\u00a0drive\u00a0to\u00a0endure, to overcome\u00a0and to\u00a0ultimately\u00a0win.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Economic Squid Games: China\u2019s Enduring Mastery of Survival Download this article as a PDF. \u201cWe\u2019ve already come too far to end this now.\u201d \u2013 Sang-Woo,\u00a0Squid Game Squid Game is a dark drama set in Korea that depicts the lengths some individuals will go to in order to try and eliminate their extreme levels of debt. […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":129,"featured_media":1174,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"_oasis_is_in_workflow":0,"_oasis_original":0,"_oasis_task_priority":"","_exactmetrics_skip_tracking":false,"_exactmetrics_sitenote_active":false,"_exactmetrics_sitenote_note":"","_exactmetrics_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[16],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-1172","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-market-insights"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nNovember Market Insights by James Thorne: - Cresco Wealth Management<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/advisor.wellington-altus.ca\/crescowealthmanagement\/2021\/11\/01\/november-market-insights-by-james-thorne\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"November Market Insights by James Thorne: - Cresco Wealth Management\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Economic Squid Games: China\u2019s Enduring Mastery of Survival Download this article as a PDF. \u201cWe\u2019ve already come too far to end this now.\u201d \u2013 Sang-Woo,\u00a0Squid Game Squid Game is a dark drama set in Korea that depicts the lengths some individuals will go to in order to try and eliminate their extreme levels of debt. 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