{"id":1076,"date":"2024-08-26T08:00:07","date_gmt":"2024-08-26T08:00:07","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/advisor.wellington-altus.ca\/evansfamilywealth\/?p=1076"},"modified":"2025-05-15T14:33:38","modified_gmt":"2025-05-15T14:33:38","slug":"dog-days-of-summer","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/advisor.wellington-altus.ca\/evansfamilywealth\/dog-days-of-summer\/","title":{"rendered":"Good News! The Dog Days of Summer and a Stellar Stock Market"},"content":{"rendered":"

\"\"<\/p>\n

Credit: Rachel Scott Smith<\/p>\n

Siriusly, It\u2019s Hot Out There!<\/strong><\/span><\/h2>\n

In the dawn’s twilight, before the Sun had risen, the ancient Greeks were already scanning the sky for the rising of Sirius, the star named after Orion\u2019s dog. When Sirius, the brightest star in the night sky, decided to show up fashionably late in July or August, the Greeks took note\u2014believing its dazzling light, paired with the Sun\u2019s already intense rays, was the cosmic equivalent of turning the thermostat up to 11. These “Dog Days of Summer,” as they were called, were seen as a time of lethargy, ill winds, and probably a good excuse to avoid anything resembling effort. Today, while we might not fear these days, they\u2019re the perfect time to seek shade, enjoy the comforts of the cottage, and take a moment to reflect on the year so far. And what a year it\u2019s been!<\/p>\n

Stocks to the Moon!<\/strong><\/span><\/h2>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

source: ChatGPT4<\/p>\n

It hasn\u2019t just been Sirius rising\u2014stock markets have been shooting for the stars, making new all-time highs in many places. Even bonds, which have been nursing a two-year hangover, are starting to perk up now that central banks are dialing down interest rates. Markets wobbled a bit in early August, but we held on, and our optimism has been rewarded. Sometimes the best thing to do is nothing\u2014or if you’re Rumble, have a siesta.<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

After the Dog Days of summer…what comes next?<\/strong><\/span><\/h2>\n

As fun as it is to reminisce, investors like us are always looking ahead (even if we\u2019re not quite looking to the stars). With a U.S. Presidential Election year upon us, what should we expect?<\/p>\n

Three Lessons from History\u00a0<\/strong><\/span><\/h2>\n
    \n
  1. Central Banks Are Cutting Rates: If we can dodge a recession, these rate-cutting periods often provide some of the best returns for both stocks and bonds; especially for high dividend-paying companies. But remember, all bets are off if the economy stumbles.<\/li>\n
  2. Election Year Bullishness: Historically, U.S. Presidential Election years have been kind to stocks, regardless of who wins. The third quarter can be a bit bumpy, but the fourth quarter tends to be a sweet spot.<\/li>\n
  3. Inflation Is Easing: Inflation is moderating, and we\u2019re even seeing signs of disinflation out of China. In Canada (if you exclude shelter cost) inflation was just 1.6% last month. Who knows? We might be surprised by how low interest rates could go.<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n

    One Caveat<\/strong><\/span><\/h2>\n

    While geopolitical and recession risks are always lurking (and perhaps more than usual right now), there\u2019s a new risk worth discussing. The Democrats seem to be pivoting from Bidenomics to a more extreme left stance, advocating price controls and much higher taxes (even on unrealized capital gains). The left-leaning Washington Post editorial board was shocked and dismayed, summing it up with a headline that says it all…<\/p>\n

    \"\"<\/p>\n

    No politics here\u2014after all, price controls were first implemented by Nixon, a Republican. It was a terrible idea then, and it remains one now.<\/p>\n

    But what about U.S. fiscal spending? I had hoped that both presidential candidates would dial back the enormous deficit spending of the Biden presidency (currently at 7% of GDP). But early signs from Harris’s platform suggest otherwise. The key risk is that irresponsible spending could reignite inflation, undoing the painful progress of the past two years.<\/p>\n

    But that\u2019s a story for another day\u2014for now, kick back, enjoy the shade!<\/p>\n

     <\/p>\n

    Glen<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

    It hasn\u2019t just been Sirius rising\u2014stock markets have been shooting for the stars, making new all-time highs in many places. Even bonds, which have been nursing a two-year hangover, are starting to perk up now that central banks are dialing down interest rates. Markets wobbled a bit in early August, but we held on, and our optimism has been rewarded.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":219,"featured_media":1079,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_oasis_is_in_workflow":0,"_oasis_original":0,"_oasis_task_priority":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[93],"tags":[404,53,20],"class_list":["post-1076","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-market-insights-news","tag-government-policy-economic-impact","tag-inflation","tag-wealth-management"],"yoast_head":"\nThe Dog Days of Summer and a Stellar Stock Market - Evans Family Wealth<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Stocks are soaring this summer, and with central banks easing rates, the outlook for the rest of the year looks promising. 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