{"id":2350,"date":"2025-05-12T08:00:42","date_gmt":"2025-05-12T08:00:42","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/advisor.wellington-altus.ca\/evansfamilywealth\/?p=2350"},"modified":"2025-05-26T15:02:51","modified_gmt":"2025-05-26T15:02:51","slug":"condo-prices-slide-what-it-means-for-bank-stocks","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/advisor.wellington-altus.ca\/evansfamilywealth\/condo-prices-slide-what-it-means-for-bank-stocks\/","title":{"rendered":"Good News! Condo Prices Slide and What It Means for Your Bank Stocks"},"content":{"rendered":"

The 1990s Called: Are We Repeating the Condo Crash?<\/span><\/h2>\n

The 1990s called\u2014Toronto picked up. Back then condo owners learned that prices could fall for 7 years in a row. The new cycle looks eerily familiar:<\/p>\n

\u201cBy the end of this year, GTA condo prices will likely have dropped\u00a015\u201120\u202f %<\/strong>\u00a0from their 2023\u202fQ3 peak, with about\u00a010\u2006 percentage points of that decline happening in 2025<\/strong>. A glut of supply, slowing population growth and tariff\u2011driven economic uncertainty are all weighing on demand.” TD\u202fEconomics,\u00a0GTA\u202f Condo Market Outlook<\/em><\/p>\n

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What the Condo Crash Means for the Big 6 Banks<\/span><\/h2>\n

Canada’s Big Banks have feasted on mortgages and are now dealing with indigestion. Provisions for loan losses have increased, but declining interest rates have cushioned the blow. Flashback to 1990\u201193. During the last condo crack\u2011up, Canadian bank shares went nowhere for three years, while U.S. leaders like JPMorgan gained 50% and Wells Fargo nearly doubled.<\/p>\n

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Charts courtesy of StockCharts.com<\/p>\n

Might History Repeat? A Tale of Two Housing Markets<\/span><\/h2>\n

Might history repeat? I can’t say, Ontario and BC’s housing markets are retrenching. The rest of the country seems to be doing relatively well. Still, I’m intrigued by the promises to deregulate the U.S. banking sector.<\/p>\n

The Cross-Border Scorecard: Canada vs. U.S. Banks<\/strong><\/span><\/h2>\n

Compared to Canada’s Big 6 Banks, the U.S. Big banks have handily outperformed in recent years and over the longer term too:<\/p>\n

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YCharts.com \u00a9 2025 YCharts, Inc. All rights reserved<\/p>\n

Our Take: Income, Growth, and Tactical Positioning<\/span><\/h2>\n