{"id":3614,"date":"2026-02-23T10:22:21","date_gmt":"2026-02-23T15:22:21","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/advisor.wellington-altus.ca\/evansfamilywealth\/?p=3614"},"modified":"2026-02-23T10:17:40","modified_gmt":"2026-02-23T15:17:40","slug":"canada-defence-spending-strategy","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/advisor.wellington-altus.ca\/evansfamilywealth\/canada-defence-spending-strategy\/","title":{"rendered":"Good News! Half a Trillion Dollars is About to Move"},"content":{"rendered":"

Australia’s Submarine Disaster: A Warning About Defence Megaprojects<\/span><\/h2>\n

We should start with a story, because it\u2019s a good one. In the 1980’s Australia spent A$5 billion building six Collins-class submarines. The final bill came in at A$20 billion. The boats weren\u2019t reliably operational until 19 years after the first one launched. The hulls leaked. The engines were too noisy. And here\u2019s the detail you couldn\u2019t make up: at the launch ceremony, entire hull sections were actually sheets of timber painted black so the submarine would look finished for the cameras!<\/p>\n

\"submarine\"<\/p>\n

HMAS Rankin, Collins-class submarine. Budget: A$5B. Final cost: A$20B. Time to operational readiness: 19 years. (image generated by Gemini)<\/em><\/p>\n

Undaunted, Australia then hired France to build twelve next-generation submarines. After spending A$4 billion, they cancelled the whole thing in 2021. Not a single boat was delivered. They\u2019ve now pivoted to nuclear-powered submarines under the AUKUS deal, projected at A$268-368 billion\u2014which, for what it\u2019s worth, is larger than the GDP of most countries. The Australians are nothing if not persistent.<\/p>\n

We laugh, but we shouldn\u2019t. Our own track record is just as bad.<\/p>\n

Canada’s River-Class Destroyer Program and Cost Overruns<\/strong><\/span><\/h2>\n

The River-Class Destroyer program\u2014replacement frigates for the Navy\u2014was budgeted at $26.2 billion in 2008. The Parliamentary Budget Officer now puts it at $84.5 billion, with some projections north of $108 billion. That\u2019s a 312% overrun, and it\u2019s still climbing.<\/p>\n

Each ship will cost roughly $7.4 billion. The United Kingdom builds the same design for about half that. The difference is simple: Canada required domestic construction at Irving Shipbuilding, creating a sole-source monopoly. Without competitive pressure, costs settled at 30-40% above international benchmarks\u2014and the schedule slipped by over a decade. This isn\u2019t a scandal. It\u2019s what happens every time. Everywhere.<\/p>\n

\"Canadian<\/p>\n

Gemini’s rendering of the River-Class Destroyer (Type 26 variant). Original budget: $26.2B. Current estimate: $84.5\u2013108B.<\/em><\/p>\n

The Iron Law of Megaprojects: Why Defence Spending Goes Over Budget<\/strong><\/span><\/h2>\n

An Oxford professor named Bent Flyvbjerg has spent his career studying this phenomenon. He looked at 16,000 megaprojects across 136 countries over seven decades and found something that won\u2019t surprise anyone who\u2019s watched government procurement up close: projects go over budget, over time, and under-deliver on benefits\u2014with the reliability of a law of physics. He calls it the Iron Law of Megaprojects. Defence programs are among the worst offenders, and no country is immune.<\/p>\n

Here\u2019s what the data shows:<\/strong><\/p>\n

\"Table<\/p>\n

Source: Flyvbjerg (2017), RAND Corporation, Parliamentary Budget Officer. Canadian figures reflect Surface Combatant and National Shipbuilding Strategy overruns.<\/em><\/p>\n

The bottom line: fewer than one in a hundred megaprojects comes in on time, on budget, and delivers what was promised. For defence programs specifically, the global probability of significant cost overruns exceeds 91%.<\/p>\n

Canada’s $500 Billion Defence Spending Strategy<\/strong><\/span><\/h2>\n

Against this backdrop, Prime Minister Mark Carney\u2019s government has released the most ambitious defence spending plan in Canadian history. The numbers are genuinely impressive: over $500 billion in total defence-related spending by 2035, backed by $81.8 billion in Budget 2025, with a target of reaching 5% of GDP\u2014up from 1.37% today.<\/p>\n

Let\u2019s give credit where it\u2019s due. The security threats are real: Arctic sovereignty, NATO commitments, a world that looks markedly different than it did five years ago. The strategy identifies ten \u201csovereign capabilities\u201d and commits to directing 70% of procurement to Canadian firms. As a statement of national ambition, it\u2019s stirring stuff.<\/p>\n

But here\u2019s the thing: Carney is a McKinsey man, a Goldman man, a former central banker. He knows the Iron Law of Megaprojects. He almost certainly knows this document will not deliver what it promises\u2014at least not on the timelines and budgets advertised. Which raises an interesting question: what if we\u2019re reading it wrong?<\/p>\n

Understood as an industrial policy, this strategy has serious problems we\u2019ll get to in a moment. Understood as a political document (a vote-getting statement of intent, like the 500,000 homes pledge) it\u2019s brilliant politics. It gives Canada a muscular answer to Trump\u2019s 51st-state taunts. It plays well in every region. It wraps industrial subsidies in a flag. And it positions Carney as the serious leader for a dangerous time. None of that requires the Gripens or F-35s to arrive on schedule.<\/p>\n

We say this with admiration, not as criticism, but for investment purposes we need to assess what will actually happen when this money hits the procurement system. And that\u2019s where it gets complicated….<\/p>\n

Canada’s Missing Defence-Industrial Base<\/span><\/h2>\n

Here is the fundamental problem: with the notable exception of Irving Shipbuilding\u2019s yards in Halifax, Canada does not have a defence-industrial base. Not at scale. Not in most of the ten sovereign capability areas the strategy identifies.<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

Source: Gemini<\/p>\n

There is no domestic manufacturer of armoured vehicles, no fighter jet production line, no torpedo factory, no established ammunition supply chain capable of wartime output. The strategy isn\u2019t proposing to spend $500 billion through an existing industry. It\u2019s proposing to build the industry and execute the largest procurement program in Canadian history at the same time. That’s like jumping out of an airplane and sewing a parachute on the way down!<\/p>\n

The EV Battery Subsidy Lesson for Defence Policy<\/span><\/h2>\n

Even those of us who most ardently support the initiative have to acknowledge the uncomfortable recent precedent of the EV battery debacle. Just two years ago, Canada committed $52.5 billion in federal and provincial subsidies to build a battery manufacturing industry from scratch. The results: Northvolt\u2014bankrupt. Honda\u2014frozen for at least two years. Stellantis\u2014construction halted, restarted, still no firm production date. The Parliamentary Budget Officer estimates it will take twenty years for taxpayers to break even on just the Volkswagen and Stellantis deals\u2014not the five years the government promised. That works out to roughly $5 million in subsidies per job created.<\/p>\n

For perspective, that $52.5 billion is more than the $34 billion it cost to build Trans Mountain and the $16 billion it cost to build the Site C hydroelectric dam\u2014combined, with change to spare. Both projects had their own legendary overruns, but both are actually working: Trans Mountain tripled Pacific export capacity and pushed crude production to record highs, and Site C is now powering half a million homes. The battery subsidies could have funded a pipeline and a dam, and we’d have hard infrastructure generating revenue today instead of bankruptcy filings and indefinite pauses.<\/p>\n

We’re not making an argument against ambition. We’re pointing out what Carney must already know: that reliably, predictably, and globally, governments fail when they try to conjure entire industries into existence with a chequebook. The EV battery strategy was one bet on one industry. The Defence Industrial Strategy is ten bets at once, at ten times the scale. As a taxpayer, are you comfortable with those odds?<\/p>\n

None of this means the spending won\u2019t happen\u2014it likely will. The political will is real, the allied pressure is real, and the cheques will be written. But the gap between what gets announced and what gets delivered is going to be very, very large. That\u2019s not cynicism. That\u2019s how investors preserve their capital\u2014by avoiding bad bets.<\/p>\n

Which brings us to our actual job. We\u2019re not the Auditor General. Our job is to understand where the capital flows\u2014and who captures it. Here the news is much better for investors!<\/strong><\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

Source: illustration by Notebook LLM and Glen Evans<\/em><\/p>\n

Investing in Canada’s Defence Spending: Follow the Capital<\/strong><\/span><\/h2>\n

The strategy\u2019s domestic content rules, compliance requirements, and enhanced multipliers for training and Indigenous workforce development create enormous barriers for anyone who isn\u2019t already in the club. In practice, the capital will likely funnel to a handful of entrenched, large-cap incumbents who know how to navigate Ottawa and check every box. That\u2019s not a flaw in the system\u2014from an investment standpoint, it\u2019s the whole point.<\/p>\n

Currently, we’re asking ourselves, “who benefits most?” Our work has just begun, but these names are part of the list we’re considering. Time is on our side and this list will not doubt change over time (some are names we already own).<\/p>\n

These TSX-listed companies (and others) may be structurally positioned to capture the largest share (Evans Family Wealth is not recommending any of these stocks):<\/em><\/p>\n

\"TSX<\/p>\n

Conclusion: What Canada’s Defence Strategy Means for Investors<\/strong><\/span><\/h2>\n

Look\u2014we want this to work. The threats are real, the armed forces are in genuinely poor shape, and the country needs to get serious. Carney has read the room correctly, and the ambition is welcome.<\/p>\n

But the Iron Law of Megaprojects tells us how we should expect this movie to end. Based on past experience (some of it very recent), investors should expect these projects to disappoint. Indeed, history’s lesson is that 91% of the time Megaprojects fail to deliver. Expecting otherwise isn’t patriotic\u2014it’s betting on hope over experience. As risk managers, we know that two things can be true at the same time. This policy may well be bad news for tax-payers while simultaneously being good news for investors.<\/p>\n

For investors, we need to know the game we’re playing. When a government commits half a trillion dollars through a system built for political outcomes, the companies sitting at the chokepoints capture value whether or not the stated objectives are met. Ships may arrive late. Satellites may cost double. Arctic bases may take a decade longer than planned. But the contracts get signed, the invoices get paid, and the incumbents grow. That’s the opportunity we’re looking at.<\/p>\n

We’re on it!<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Glen<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Canada is committing over $500 billion to defence by 2035 – but history shows megaprojects rarely deliver on time or on budget. Instead of debating the politics, investors should ask a simpler question: where will the capital actually flow?<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":219,"featured_media":3615,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_oasis_is_in_workflow":0,"_oasis_original":0,"_oasis_task_priority":"2normal","footnotes":""},"categories":[93],"tags":[400,404,402],"class_list":["post-3614","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-market-insights-news","tag-global-markets","tag-government-policy-economic-impact","tag-investor-behaviour"],"yoast_head":"\nCanada's $500 Billion Defence Spending Strategy: Who Benefits? - Evans Family Wealth<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Canada's $500B defence spending strategy aims to rebuild sovereignty. 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