{"id":3639,"date":"2026-03-10T13:53:35","date_gmt":"2026-03-10T17:53:35","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/advisor.wellington-altus.ca\/evansfamilywealth\/?p=3639"},"modified":"2026-03-09T09:34:23","modified_gmt":"2026-03-09T13:34:23","slug":"cusma-economic-impact-canada","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/advisor.wellington-altus.ca\/evansfamilywealth\/cusma-economic-impact-canada\/","title":{"rendered":"Good News! Clarity in Uncertain Trade Times"},"content":{"rendered":"

\"Henry<\/p>\n

Henry Ford, arriving at the White House (image by Gemini)<\/p>\n

Henry Ford’s black Lincoln Model L swept past the Treasury Building and through the gates of 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue gliding to a stop. America’s richest industrialist had come to the White House to beg.<\/p>\n

Smoot-Hawley and the Cost of Ignoring Economics<\/span><\/h2>\n

Over the course of an evening with President Herbert Hoover, Ford pleaded with him to veto the Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act. He called it “economic stupidity.” J.P. Morgan’s chief executive, Thomas Lamont, said he “almost went down on his knees” to make the same case. Over 1,028 economists had signed a petition begging Hoover not to sign. Hoover privately agreed the bill was “vicious, extortionate, and obnoxious” but he signed it anyway.<\/p>\n

What followed was the Great Depression.<\/p>\n

Why the CUSMA Economic Impact on Canada Matters<\/span><\/h2>\n

Ninety-six years later, a new poll shows that 55% of Canadians can’t be bothered to worry about the possible end of Canada-United States-Mexico Agreement (CUSMA)\u2014the trade architecture that keeps 86\u201390% of Canadian exports flowing duty-free across the border. The economists are waving their arms again. The question is whether anyone is listening?<\/p>\n

\"Infographic<\/p>\n

Source<\/a><\/p>\n

Ford’s description of Smoot-Hawley is apt in describing these poll results “economic stupidity”. As an investor, I try to maintain an optimistic outlook. Results like this make it difficult.<\/p>\n

For the record, our observation is that economists strongly disagree with the majority of Canadians. Prime Minister Mark Carney, disagrees with the majority of Canadians. The Governor of the Bank of Canada disagrees with the majority of Canadians. Business leaders disagree with the majority of Canadians. Let’s dig in.<\/p>\n

What Happens if CUSMA Ends<\/strong><\/span><\/h2>\n

CUSMA currently shields approximately 86\u201390% of Canadian goods exports from U.S. tariffs. Those exports amount to roughly 19% of Canada\u2019s entire GDP. Without the agreement, trade reverts to the World Trade Organization’s most-favoured-nation terms\u2014under which only about 40% of Canadian exports to the U.S. enter duty-free. Canadian trucks would face a 25% tariff, footwear up to 35% and apparel up to 32%.<\/p>\n

GDP, Jobs, and Recession Risk<\/span><\/h2>\n

The economic projections from losing CUSMA aren’t theoretical. They have been modelled (in detail) by people whose job it is to be right about these things:<\/p>\n