{"id":524,"date":"2023-12-06T12:00:20","date_gmt":"2023-12-06T12:00:20","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/advisor.wellington-altus.ca\/evansfamilywealth\/?p=524"},"modified":"2025-05-15T14:49:11","modified_gmt":"2025-05-15T14:49:11","slug":"beauty-of-bull-and-bear-markets","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/advisor.wellington-altus.ca\/evansfamilywealth\/beauty-of-bull-and-bear-markets\/","title":{"rendered":"Good News! The Beauty of Bull & Bear Markets"},"content":{"rendered":"

The Spectacle of Fireworks<\/span><\/h2>\n

“Whump!”\u00a0 In the distance, the deep but discernible\u00a0sound of the shell exiting the four foot diameter mortar barrel reverberates under the dark sky.\u00a0 Almost immediately, a red trail like a meteor streaks into the smokey sky.\u00a0 Spectators hush, eyes strained as the trail rises to the heavens.\u00a0 Night turns to day, as the shell explodes in a constellation of artificial\u00a0suns blinding\u00a0the senses, dilating pupils and overloading the faculties.\u00a0 Next the sound waves of the deafening explosion impact your chest, arriving seconds later with a palpable thud.<\/p>\n

Crafting the Yonshakudama<\/span><\/h2>\n

The\u00a0925 lb Yonshakudama shell is the pinnacle of pyrotechnics.\u00a0 Assembled by artisan\u00a0craftsmen called Hanabi-shi, the precisely placed sub-shells and\u00a0colour producing stars, packed amongst oxidizers like potassium nitrate, metallic powders and binding agents and equipped with both time and altitude sensitive fuses, take weeks to construct and seconds to explode.\u00a0 For some that might seem like a waste – not me.<\/p>\n

\"Yonshakudama<\/p>\n

The Ephemeral Nature of Fireworks<\/span><\/h2>\n

Japanese culture captures the awareness and appreciation of the transient nature of life and the bittersweet beauty found in fleeting moments. They call this “mono no aware” pronounced,\u00a0mono-no-ah-wah-reh<\/em>.\u00a0 At the heart of “mono no aware” is an acceptance and appreciation of the impermanent nature of things. This sentiment is not just about sadness over the fleeting moments but also about finding a deeper beauty and emotional resonance because of their ephemeral nature.\u00a0 What’s more fleeting than a pyrotechnic?\u00a0 The task is to appreciate both the beauty and art of assembling and blowing up the world’s biggest firecracker!\u00a0 Western investors could probably learn from the Japanese.<\/p>\n

The Bull and Bear Markets<\/span><\/h2>\n

Investors tend to focus on the big bangs of bull markets.\u00a0 A clear preference for this incendiary growth makes good sense – but misses the fact that these bull markets (like the mighty Yonshakudama) don’t make themselves.\u00a0 Without the work of the Hanabi-shi, the night sky would never light up\u00a0 – even if only momentarily.<\/p>\n

I’d probably be giving too much credit to our central bankers to compare them to Hanabi-shi.\u00a0 The hard truth is that there is no bull market without bear markets.\u00a0 The uncomfortable conditions we have been through in the last couple of years are laying the groundwork for the next bull market – which will create the speculative excesses which will be ground down in the bear market that will follow.\u00a0 It is always so.<\/p>\n

Signs of a Coming Bull Market<\/span><\/h2>\n

There is increasing reason for optimism that work of the central bankers is almost done.\u00a0 While prices are unlikely to ever return to their previous levels, inflation increasingly seems to be under control.\u00a0 Unemployment is now rising.\u00a0 \u00a0The expectation now is that the Bank of Canada will begin cutting interest rates by the middle of next year.<\/p>\n

I’m hesitant\u00a0to blow the “all-clear” whistle, because it strikes me that risks still abound. But we can compare what we would expect to be true if we were at the bottom with what is actually happening.\u00a0 If we were at the bottom of this bear market, we’d be expecting to see bond prices increasing as interest rates begin to fall (in expectation of the central banks cutting interest rates).\u00a0 We’ d also be expecting Consumer Prices to be falling down and Unemployment to be rising.\u00a0 Let’s check.<\/p>\n

\"Canadian<\/p>\n

\"Canada<\/p>\n

\"Canada<\/p>\n

source: YCharts.com<\/p>\n

Assessing the Current Situation<\/span><\/h2>\n

Check, check, check. There seems to be little doubt that substantial progress has been made during this bear market at restoring the fundamentals that are required for the next bull market run.\u00a0 Are we there yet?\u00a0 Maybe, maybe not.\u00a0 Frankly, it depends on how much more damage will come from the interest rate hikes that have already been done.\u00a0 Do we experience a recession or a soft-landing?\u00a0 I’m inclined to think that a recession is likely coming our way; but investors, like spectators at a fireworks demonstration, are leaning in, hushed, waiting to hear, “Whump!”<\/p>\n

The Long-Term Investor\u2019s Perspective<\/span><\/h2>\n

Long term investors like you and I, have learned to enjoy the sound and fury of bull markets while stoically accepting the impermanence of them – like the Japanese.\u00a0 For us long-suffering long term investors, the wait might be nearing an end.<\/p>\n

Glen<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

“Whump!”\u00a0 In the distance, the deep but discernible\u00a0sound of the shell exiting the four foot diameter mortar barrel reverberates under the dark sky.\u00a0 Almost immediately, a red trail like a meteor streaks into the smokey sky.\u00a0 Spectators hush, eyes strained as the trail rises to the heavens.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":193,"featured_media":526,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_oasis_is_in_workflow":0,"_oasis_original":0,"_oasis_task_priority":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[93],"tags":[404,53,109],"class_list":["post-524","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-market-insights-news","tag-government-policy-economic-impact","tag-inflation","tag-risk-management"],"yoast_head":"\nThe Beauty of Bull & Bear Markets - Evans Family Wealth<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Explore the explosive beauty of the Yonshakudama fireworks and how it parallels the impermanence of bull and bear markets. 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