{"id":601,"date":"2024-04-08T12:00:04","date_gmt":"2024-04-08T12:00:04","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/advisor.wellington-altus.ca\/evansfamilywealth\/?p=601"},"modified":"2025-05-15T14:42:57","modified_gmt":"2025-05-15T14:42:57","slug":"understanding-fiscal-dominance-and-market-impact","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/advisor.wellington-altus.ca\/evansfamilywealth\/understanding-fiscal-dominance-and-market-impact\/","title":{"rendered":"Good News! Understanding Fiscal Dominance and Market Impact"},"content":{"rendered":"

“Video killed the radio star…” The Buggles<\/p>\n

Baroque opera killed the medieval lute. “Too quiet!” was the\u00a0complaint.\u00a0 Happily, it didn’t stay dead – rather it was resurrected, Frankenstein-like and re-named the theorbo.\u00a0 Theor – what?\u00a0 Imagine a giraffe\u00a0and a ukulele had a baby and you get an image of this remarkable musical instrument.\u00a0 The Theorbo was created by luthiers attempting to provide a greater range of sound to match the on-stage drama of the opera.<\/p>\n

\"Theorbo\"<\/p>\n

The Theorbo source:\u00a0https:\/\/collections.ed.ac.uk\/stcecilias\/record\/95956<\/a><\/p>\n

The Revival of the Theorbo<\/strong><\/span><\/h2>\n

Italian craftsmen in Florence attached an enormously long second neck to a lute and strung another 4 non-fretted bass strings alongside the 8 or 9 pairs of strings of the lute.\u00a0 You can imagine what purists thought!\u00a0 Despite the ungainly appearance, the theorbo\u00a0caught on because in addition to providing a greater sound range and richer tone, it also created a louder “sympathetic resonance” (think reverb) as the bass strings vibrated even when not plucked, creating a louder and more sustained sound.\u00a0 This was the sound the opera required!<\/p>\n

Innovation and Progress: Addressing Problems with Solutions<\/strong><\/span><\/h2>\n

Isn’t that great!\u00a0 It’s the story of all innovation and progress: a problem arises and a solution (however strange looking) is developed and implemented.\u00a0 The US Federal Reserve and Treasury Department are masters of this innovation process (for better or worse).\u00a0 Their creations move markets and dictate the terms on which investors play.\u00a0 Investors like you and I need to pay attention because it’s not always obvious when their Frankensteins turn into monsters.<\/p>\n

The Federal Reserve’s Power and the Emerging Fiscal Dominance<\/strong><\/span><\/h2>\n

I continue to marvel that a handful of seven technocrats at the Federal Reserve, have historically\u00a0had nearly complete control of the US economy.\u00a0 Critics claim that this near total control is being eroded by the enormous deficits the Biden Administration has implemented through the US Treasury Department.\u00a0 Put simply, the US Government is running a deficit that is the equivalent in size to 6.4% of the entire US economic output – while unemployment is at 3.75%.\u00a0 Historically, deficit spending was limited to war time and to periods of recession.\u00a0 No longer. Critics claim that this unhinged level of spending is preventing the Federal Reserve’s interest rate hikes from having the desired impact of slowing the economy and bringing inflation back to the targeted range.\u00a0 Worse, they claim that issuing the debt to pay for this spending (about $1 trillion every 100 days) may jeopardize\u00a0their efforts to control inflation.\u00a0\u00a0https:\/\/www.msn.com\/en-xl\/news\/other\/as-us-debt-bomb-spirals-towards-35-trillion-hedge-fund-boss-warns-politicians-are-spending-at-the-expense-of-future-generations\/ar-BB1l1dn4<\/a><\/p>\n

The term for this development is fiscal dominance – a situation where the government’s fiscal policy starts to override the central bank’s monetary policy, potentially leading to high inflation that the central bank is unable to control. (Hello Frankenstein!)<\/p>\n

The Impact of Government Spending on the Economy<\/strong><\/span><\/h2>\n

I’ll leave it to others to debate the long term implications of fiscal dominance.\u00a0 Let’s consider what this “spend-a-thon” means for investors. Here’s how one analyst I follow\u00a0describes it, “With public debt levels closing in on 100% of GDP and with deficits north of 6% of GDP, the economic impacts of the public spending cycle dwarf the impacts of the private consumption and investment cycles. The fate of the economy is determined by the spending decisions made by politicians”.\u00a0<\/em><\/p>\n

\u00a0source:\u00a0<\/em>https:\/\/www.fallacyalarm.com\/p\/tracking-fiscal-flows-in-real-time?utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web<\/a><\/p>\n

If correct, that means we Portfolio Managers need to add another neck to our lute if we’re going to continue to play with the band!\u00a0 For my entire career, the Federal Reserve was the conductor of the US economy – increasingly it appears that the politicians have taken control.\u00a0 \u00a0What is the likelihood that spending will decrease in an election year when the Democrats appear to be trailing Trump in the polls?<\/p>\n

Tracking Fiscal Flows: A New Tool for Investors<\/strong><\/span><\/h2>\n

We need new tools to measure the impact of this spending.\u00a0 Here’s a simple one that illustrates the point.\u00a0 The blue line in the chart below is the sum of the assets at the Federal Reserve.\u00a0 The dotted red line behind is the S&P 500.\u00a0 You can see that the stimulus the Federal Reserve implemented in the pandemic is correlated with the recovery of the stock market in early 2020.\u00a0 Data scientists will remind us that correlation isn’t causation so let’s look further.\u00a0 Once the Fed began to reduce its balance sheet in 2022 the market fell.\u00a0 As their balance sheet stabilized, so did the market.\u00a0 Recently, the market has diverged from this indicator as fiscal spending (from the Treasury) has replaced the stimulus that had been provided by the Federal Reserve.<\/p>\n

\"balance<\/p>\n

source: Federal Reserve<\/p>\n

This sounds more complicated than it is.\u00a0 Think of it this way, while the Federal Reserve has been trying to extinguish the fire of inflation by raising interest rates – the US Government has been fire-hosing gasoline on the fire in the form of deficit spending.\u00a0 If the US Government\u00a0continues to borrow 6% of GDP to spend, that is going to “goose” financial markets particularly once the Federal Reserve stops raising rates!\u00a0 In this new world, the spending decisions of the politicians sets the “temperature” of the US economy and by inference the stock market!\u00a0 The US Treasury has usurped the Federal Reserve.<\/p>\n

Adapting to the Changing Landscape: “Don’t Fight the Treasury”<\/strong><\/span><\/h2>\n

My take?\u00a0 We used to say, “Don’t fight the Fed”.\u00a0 Now we probably need to say “Don’t fight the Treasury”.\u00a0 Debating the relative risk and wisdom of these developments is best left to the academics.\u00a0 As the Buggles sang: “Video killed the radio star”!\u00a0 It is always this way.\u00a0 Our task isn’t to judge, it’s to act in the face of these developments.\u00a0 I’m working to develop tools to better track the Treasury Department’s spending so that we can all prosper from this changing landscape while enjoying the opera – because no one wants to hear Frankenstein sing!<\/p>\n

\"Frankenstein\"<\/p>\n

Glen<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Baroque opera killed the medieval lute. “Too quiet!” was the\u00a0complaint.\u00a0 Happily, it didn’t stay dead – rather it was resurrected, Frankenstein-like and re-named the theorbo.\u00a0 Theor – what?\u00a0 Imagine a giraffe\u00a0and a ukulele had a baby and you get an image of this remarkable musical instrument.\u00a0<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":193,"featured_media":602,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_oasis_is_in_workflow":0,"_oasis_original":0,"_oasis_task_priority":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[93],"tags":[404,53,109],"class_list":["post-601","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-market-insights-news","tag-government-policy-economic-impact","tag-inflation","tag-risk-management"],"yoast_head":"\nUnderstanding Fiscal Dominance and Market Impact - Evans Family Wealth<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Discover how the evolution of the theorbo parallels the shift from Federal Reserve control to fiscal dominance in U.S. markets. 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