A Bifurcation in Sentiment
Markets rarely linger in equilibrium. The pendulum of sentiment swings between fear and greed, and this year has been no exception. After April’s lows, the S&P surged over 30 percent in just two months, one of the fastest rallies in recent history, while the TSX hit multiple all-time highs. Yet, the mood among investors remained divided. The summer enthusiasm saw a return of speculative fervour: meme stocks and cryptocurrencies (consider that Fartcoin reached a market cap of $1 billion). Many younger investors, who came of age during the low-rate post-pandemic era (and notably have never experienced a prolonged bear market), leaned into the euphoria. More seasoned investors, meanwhile, appeared to be climbing the proverbial “wall of worry,” mindful of cycles past.
One driver has been the substantial optimism over artificial intelligence (AI). In the first half of 2025, AI capital expenditures contributed more to U.S. GDP growth than consumer spending.1 This has prompted some analysts to ask: Would the U.S. economy have contracted without this massive spend? The top four tech firms alone are on track to spend $344 billion in AI capex this year—about one percent of total U.S. GDP.2
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Q4 2025 Evolved – Fall Newsletter
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