September Market Insights: The Fed’s High-Wire Act
The adage, “Discretion is the better part of valour,” has never been more pertinent as the U.S. Federal Reserve cautiously navigates between the perils of inflation and deflation. In the world of economic policy, the Federal Reserve finds itself delicately engaged in a balancing act akin to a tightrope walker traversing a starlit sky obscured by clouds. The elusive concept of the “neutral interest rate” remains shrouded in uncertainty, and one could plausibly argue that rate hikes possess an inflationary nature. With continued reliance on outdated economic theories and models, the present quandary should come as no surprise.
August Market Insights: Unveiling The Crystal Ball
In early 2021, I presented a thesis regarding the latest inflation episode and its potential economic implications. At that time, I shared a perspective that differed from the prevailing narrative. Allow me to recapitulate my viewpoint.
Maximizing Your RESP: Withdraw Wisely
A Registered Education Savings Plan (RESP) is a Canadian registered investment account that promotes saving to support a beneficiary’s post-secondary education. Anyone — parents, family and friends — can open a RESP as a “subscriber” for the benefit of a child. Invested contributions grow tax free.
January Market Insights: The 2023 Market Forecast – The Pause that Refreshes
Throughout 2022, I differed from the consensus on what caused the inflation spike. The conventional view was that wages and aggregate demand of the private sector were the main culprits. I disagreed. My thesis was that the twin supply shocks of COVID-19 and the war, along with the extreme fiscal policy response, caused inflation. I adamantly disagree with the false premise that the inflation we experienced was akin to the 1970’s inflation spike.
Calculating 2023 RRIF Minimum Withdrawals
For clients who have rolled their Registered Retirement Savings Plan (“RRSP”) over to a Registered Retirement Income Fund (“RRIF”) or who have an existing RRIF account in 2022, the following information outlines how their 2023 minimum withdrawal will be calculated. All RRIF withdrawals are reported as pension income on a T4RIF slip.
November 2022 Market Insights by Dr. James Thorne: Trump, Gridlock And What It Means For Investors In 2023
After the 1994 midterm elections, gridlock was confirmed and inflation fears subsided. The next year, the Fed cut rates, and risk assets appreciated. The recent Consumer Price Index (CPI) data points to 2023 reversing the inflation shock, interest rate shock, and growing fears of 2022.
Canadian Snowbirds and U.S. Taxes: Avoiding Turbulence
Canadian residents who routinely fly south to escape the cold winters at home may not be aware that they could face U.S. tax consequences. This article looks at how spending extended periods in the U.S. can subject Canadians who are not otherwise U.S. taxpayers.
Earlier or Later? Deciding When to Start Canada Pension Plan Retirement Benefits
Many individuals approaching retirement wonder if there is an optimal age to begin taking their Canada Pension Plan retirement pension benefits (CPP). The question often arises because CPP is calculated based upon the age at which an individual starts to receive monthly payments.
September Market Insights: Waiting for Godot
September Market Insights: Waiting for Godot and passing the Peak Sagitta of the Inflation and Rate Expectation Arcs in 2022 Download this article as a PDF. Investors are waiting for their own Godot – certainty about the future. Like Godot, that certainty never comes. Yet, we keep waiting for it, even with a highly levered […]
Tax-Free First Home Savings Account
On August 9, 2022, the Department of Finance released for public comment the draft legislative proposals outlining the First Home Savings Account (“FHSA”). The FHSA was introduced in the 2022 Federal Budget to address the increasing difficulty Canadians are experiencing in buying a first home due to rising real estate values. The FHSA is intended […]