{"id":2195,"date":"2024-12-24T18:40:45","date_gmt":"2024-12-24T23:40:45","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/advisor.wellington-altus.ca\/goldsealfinancialgroup\/?p=2195"},"modified":"2026-02-18T15:19:21","modified_gmt":"2026-02-18T20:19:21","slug":"gold-seal-2024-year-end-review","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/advisor.wellington-altus.ca\/goldsealfinancialgroup\/gold-seal-2024-year-end-review\/","title":{"rendered":"2024 Year-End Review"},"content":{"rendered":"

\"Christmas<\/h1>\n

Gold Seal Monthly Review<\/strong><\/h1>\n

T\u2019was the night before rate cuts, and all through the street,<\/em>
\nThe markets were hoping for Powell\u2019s retreat.<\/em><\/p>\n

Bonds were hung by portfolios with care,<\/em>
\nIn hopes that soft landings soon would be there.<\/em><\/p>\n

Investors were nestled, snug with their gains,<\/em>
\nWhile Nvidia\u2019s profits soared up like planes.<\/em><\/p>\n

Macklem in Ottawa, and Powell down south,<\/em>
\nDebated rate trims with bated breath and mouth.<\/em><\/p>\n

When out on the newswire there arose such a clatter,<\/em>
\nI sprang from my desk to see what was the matter.<\/em><\/p>\n

To the Bloomberg I flew like a flash,<\/em>
\nPulled up the charts and prepped for a crash.<\/em><\/p>\n

The screen glowed bright, with AI stocks aglow,<\/em>
\nBut tariffs from Trump added ice to the snow.<\/em><\/p>\n

Canada\u2019s trade routes began to feel tight,<\/em>
\nAs auto costs climbed further into the night.<\/em><\/p>\n

Trudeau paced nervously, facing defeat,<\/em>
\nWhile Mexico gained on North American streets.<\/em><\/p>\n

\u201cHigher for longer,\u201d whispered no more,<\/em>
\nRate cuts had landed on Canada\u2019s shore.<\/em><\/p>\n

Yet growth felt thin, though markets climbed high,<\/em>
\nDisconnected from GDP under the sky.<\/em><\/p>\n

Serenity Portfolios <\/strong>beamed with delight,<\/em>
\nBut global headwinds stayed firmly in sight.<\/em><\/p>\n

With TFSA season about to unfold,<\/em>
\nWe rebalanced early, steady and bold.<\/em><\/p>\n

As I closed up my laptop, feeling quite bright,<\/em>
\nHappy holidays to all, and to all a good night!<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Canada\u2019s Economy: Storm Clouds, Trade Winds, and a Long Road Ahead<\/strong><\/h2>\n

As we head into 2025, Canada\u2019s economic outlook feels like we\u2019re standing in the driveway with a snow shovel, wondering how deep the storm will get before it finally lets up. While artificial intelligence (AI) driven rallies and bond market stability have been bright spots globally, Canada\u2019s path feels weighed down by trade tensions, political uncertainty, and the reality that our economy isn\u2019t riding the same tech wave as the U.S. The Bank of Canada\u2019s rate cuts have thrown a lifeline to debt-heavy households, but that relief may not be enough to offset what\u2019s brewing beyond our borders. For investors, this isn\u2019t just a long winter\u2014it\u2019s shaping up to be a year to bunker down and prepare for some rough trade winds.<\/p>\n

Much of 2024\u2019s market momentum came from the AI surge led by Nvidia, Microsoft, and the rest of the Magnificent Seven. But for Canada, this tech renaissance feels like something happening across the lake while we\u2019re still trying to start the snowblower. Our market, anchored in energy, resources, and manufacturing, isn\u2019t seeing the same meteoric lift. While these sectors provide stability, they aren\u2019t the kind of high-growth engines propelling U.S. indices forward. For Canadian portfolios, it\u2019s been a year of leaning into bonds, commodities, and defensive plays\u2014steady, but not spectacular.<\/p>\n

Now, with President-elect Donald Trump returning to the White House and dusting off the tariff playbook, Canada\u2019s vulnerabilities are moving to center stage. Trump\u2019s announcement of tariffs on Canada and Mexico\u2014America\u2019s closest trading partners\u2014underscores how trade has become his go-to hammer for achieving broader geopolitical goals. Unlike the strategy with China, where the goal is to permanently reroute industrial capacity, Trump\u2019s North American tariffs aren\u2019t about manufacturing\u2014they\u2019re about leverage. Immigration, border security, and fentanyl trafficking are now trade issues. And when trade negotiations start to look more like national security briefings, Canada\u2019s position becomes far more complicated.<\/p>\n

The auto sector is one of the most vulnerable to Trump’s proposed tariffs<\/a>, with vehicle parts crossing North American borders multiple times during production. Each crossing could drive up costs significantly, potentially adding thousands to the final price of a vehicle. While exact figures vary, analysts agree the cumulative effect could disrupt supply chains, increase inflation, and force manufacturers to reconsider production locations. This presents a real challenge for Canada\u2019s manufacturing base, particularly in Ontario, where the auto sector plays a major role. For Canada, this could lead to shrinking production capacity or worse\u2014relocation to the U.S. or Mexico. Either way, jobs and growth take the hit.<\/p>\n

At the same time, political uncertainty at home isn\u2019t helping. Prime Minister Justin Trudeau\u2019s government, already operating as a minority, faces mounting pressure as rumors of his potential resignation grow louder. With an election looming, Trudeau\u2019s potential exit leaves Canada without a clear voice at the negotiating table during what could be one of the most critical economic standoffs in recent memory. Capitulating to Trump\u2019s demands could alienate Trudeau\u2019s base, while pushing back too hard risks retaliatory tariffs that could slam Canadian exports. Either scenario carries economic risks that could stall growth at a time when Canada can\u2019t afford it.<\/p>\n

Mexico, by comparison, may be better positioned to weather Trump\u2019s demands. President Claudia Sheinbaum\u2019s government has proven adept at negotiation, and Mexico\u2019s importance to U.S. supply chains makes it harder to sideline. In fact, Trump\u2019s tariffs may even strengthen U.S.-Mexico ties at Canada\u2019s expense, further entrenching Mexico as the preferred North American manufacturing partner. For Canada, this introduces the risk of being left out of regional trade agreements that were designed to safeguard our interests. The \u201cthree amigos\u201d could quickly become two\u2014and Canada risks being the odd one out.<\/p>\n

Meanwhile, the Bank of Canada has been doing its part to soften the blow at home. Rate cuts in response to cooling inflation have provided some relief to heavily indebted households and businesses, offering much-needed breathing room. But rate cuts won\u2019t fix supply chain disruptions or repair strained trade relations. They\u2019re helpful for managing debt and supporting domestic spending, but they won\u2019t stop factories from scaling back or exporters from facing higher tariffs. It\u2019s a band-aid, not a cure.<\/p>\n

Even so, 2024 hasn\u2019t been entirely bleak. Bond markets have performed well, providing a rare bright spot in portfolios. For investors looking for stability, fixed income became more than just a defensive play\u2014it became one of the best-performing asset classes on a risk-adjusted basis. But bonds alone won\u2019t drive growth. Without meaningful exposure to high-growth sectors like tech, Canadian portfolios will continue to lag behind global markets. Investors who diversified internationally this year fared far better than those who kept their focus close to home.<\/p>\n

At Gold Seal Financial Group, our Serenity Portfolios have thrived in this environment, delivering strong growth for clients. By emphasizing diversification across sectors and regions, we\u2019ve positioned portfolios to capitalize on the AI boom and global bond market resurgence. However, it\u2019s important to acknowledge that this growth is somewhat disconnected from the broader global economy. While Serenity Portfolios have performed well, much of that performance has been driven by specific market segments, namely large-cap tech and AI sectors. This divergence serves as both a reminder of the importance of diversification and a signal that we can\u2019t assume this growth will extend indefinitely.<\/p>\n

As we look toward 2025, Gold Seal will be rebalancing portfolios in early January following Tax-Free Savings Account (TFSA) contributions to ensure clients are positioned to weather the uncertainties of the year ahead. While Serenity Portfolios continue to perform well, we remain cautious about overexposure to sectors that may experience volatility as global trade tensions increase. A balanced, globally diversified approach remains critical to long-term stability.<\/p>\n

Canada isn\u2019t facing collapse, but the challenges ahead aren\u2019t small. Trade tensions, political turnover, and slower growth paint a picture of a longer, colder winter for the Canadian economy. But for investors willing to stay patient, diversify, and keep an eye on global opportunities, there\u2019s light on the horizon. The thaw may take longer this time, but like every Canadian winter\u2014it eventually ends.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

2024 Fall Economic Statement<\/strong><\/h2>\n

\"2024<\/p>\n

Following a tumultuous day at Parliament Hill, the 2024 Fall Economic Statement is finally here. The Advanced Wealth Planning team breaks down the highlights: read the full report here.<\/a><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

T\u2019was the night before rate cuts, and all through the street,
\nThe markets were hoping for Powell\u2019s retreat.<\/p>\n

Bonds were hung by portfolios with care,
\nIn hopes that soft landings soon would be there.<\/p>\n

Investors were nestled, snug with their gains,
\nWhile Nvidia\u2019s profits soared up like planes.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":169,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_oasis_is_in_workflow":0,"_oasis_original":0,"_oasis_task_priority":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-2195","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-uncategorized"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/advisor.wellington-altus.ca\/goldsealfinancialgroup\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2195","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/advisor.wellington-altus.ca\/goldsealfinancialgroup\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/advisor.wellington-altus.ca\/goldsealfinancialgroup\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/advisor.wellington-altus.ca\/goldsealfinancialgroup\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/169"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/advisor.wellington-altus.ca\/goldsealfinancialgroup\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=2195"}],"version-history":[{"count":5,"href":"https:\/\/advisor.wellington-altus.ca\/goldsealfinancialgroup\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2195\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":2446,"href":"https:\/\/advisor.wellington-altus.ca\/goldsealfinancialgroup\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2195\/revisions\/2446"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/advisor.wellington-altus.ca\/goldsealfinancialgroup\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=2195"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/advisor.wellington-altus.ca\/goldsealfinancialgroup\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=2195"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/advisor.wellington-altus.ca\/goldsealfinancialgroup\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=2195"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}