{"id":2461,"date":"2026-02-23T16:56:08","date_gmt":"2026-02-23T21:56:08","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/advisor.wellington-altus.ca\/goldsealfinancialgroup\/?p=2461"},"modified":"2026-04-09T17:21:40","modified_gmt":"2026-04-09T21:21:40","slug":"february-2026-monthly-review","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/advisor.wellington-altus.ca\/goldsealfinancialgroup\/february-2026-monthly-review\/","title":{"rendered":"February 2026 Monthly Review"},"content":{"rendered":"

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Gold Seal Monthly Review<\/strong><\/h1>\n

Patience is easy in theory. Harder in practice. Especially when markets are strong, headlines are loud, and artificial intelligence (AI) is rewriting the investment narrative in real time.<\/p>\n

This month\u2019s edition draws directly from the CFA Society Okanagan Forecast Dinner, where Ryan once again had the privilege of hosting an evening of thoughtful debate and market insight. Two keynote speakers approached 2026 from different angles, yet landed on strikingly similar conclusions.<\/p>\n

From forecast to formation: What we learned from the 2026 CFA Society Okanagan Forecast Dinner<\/h2>\n

Every January, we get a rare chance to sit down with some of the sharpest minds in the business, reflect on the past year, and talk about where the markets may be headed. This year\u2019s CFA Society Okanagan Forecast Dinner brought two clear and timely messages:\u00a0earnings matter more than headline<\/strong><\/em>s<\/strong>, and\u00a0portfolios should be built to withstand a more concentrated and less predictable market<\/strong><\/em>.<\/p>\n

Brent Joyce,\u00a0CFA (BMO Private Wealth),<\/em>\u00a0focused on the idea of market resilience. His takeaway:\u00a0companies that keep earning money tend to keep driving markets forward.<\/em>\u00a0Sam McClellan,\u00a0CFA (BlackRock)<\/em>, looked at portfolio strategy in a world increasingly shaped by AI and shifting investment patterns. Despite their different approaches, both offered practical takeaways we\u2019re applying directly in Gold Seal client portfolios.<\/p>\n

Interest rates: a slow shift, not a sudden change<\/strong><\/u><\/p>\n

We\u2019re past the aggressive rate hikes of the last couple of years. Most central banks are now approaching interest rates like a dimmer switch by not rushing to lower rates, but stepping back from the brakes. In Canada, the policy rate is holding at 2.25%, while the U.S. sits between 3.5% and 3.75%. Other regions are following their own timelines.<\/p>\n

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Source:\u00a0BMO Private Wealth Insights<\/a><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

This long-term view of global interest rates shows why 2026 will likely bring small, gradual changes rather than big, sudden moves.<\/p>\n

For investors, this means cash and very short-term bonds may not remain as rewarding as they were. As central banks ease off, passive cash returns (such as those from GICs) could shrink and portfolios need to adapt. Income will need to be sourced more deliberately rather than assumed from short-term rates alone.<\/p>\n

Stock markets: strong, but narrow<\/strong><\/u><\/p>\n

Last year was a good one for stocks, with the S&P 500 up 16.4%, the TSX nearly 29%, and emerging markets up more than 30%. But much of that success came from a handful of very large companies. Today, just 10 stocks make up over 40% of the S&P 500\u2019s value, yet they only contribute around 32% of the index\u2019s earnings.<\/p>\n

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Source:\u00a0JP Morgan<\/a><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

Owning the index used to mean being broadly diversified. Today, it often means betting big on a few tech giants.<\/p>\n

McClellan pointed out that AI is driving real investment, not just hype. In 2025 alone, over US$500 billion went into building data infrastructure. That\u2019s a sign of lasting change and a capital expenditure cycle that extends beyond technology into energy, industrials, and infrastructure.<\/p>\n

But that doesn\u2019t mean investors should chase the biggest tech stocks. Encouragingly, earnings growth is beginning to spread beyond the narrow AI cohort. If that broadening continues, markets become inherently more resilient.\u00a0 Diversification within equities matters more than ever.<\/p>\n

Bonds are useful again<\/strong><\/u><\/p>\n

Fixed income hasn\u2019t been exciting for a long time, but that may be changing. With inflation easing and central banks slowing down, bonds are once again helping portfolios with both income and stability. McClellan warned that yields from cash and short-term investments may decline. To earn more income, investors may need to look across the portfolio and take a more active approach.<\/p>\n

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Source:\u00a0ETF Implementation Guide – 2026 Year Ahead<\/a><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

Bonds like emerging market debt and investment-grade credit offered some of the best risk\/reward profiles in 2025. Joyce also reminded us that higher starting yields make bonds more useful again, especially when the market faces unexpected volatility.<\/p>\n

Diversification still matters, but it looks different now<\/strong><\/u><\/p>\n

Both speakers agreed: traditional diversification still works, but it needs a refresh. In 2022, stocks and bonds fell together, leaving many portfolios exposed. In 2025, that improved, but the lesson remains: not all \u201cdiversifiers\u201d are created equal.<\/p>\n

Gold made a comeback in both presentations, not as a flashy bet, but as a thoughtful way to add balance. Central banks bought over 860 tonnes of gold in 2025, showing that demand remains strong. Gold behaves differently than stocks and bonds, especially when the unexpected happens. It is not meant to lead in bull markets. It is meant to buffer portfolio when concentration risk or geopolitical stress surfaces.<\/p>\n

How we\u2019re applying this at the Gold Seal Financial Group<\/strong><\/u><\/p>\n