{"id":2570,"date":"2026-09-18T15:44:17","date_gmt":"2026-09-18T19:44:17","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/advisor.wellington-altus.ca\/goldsealfinancialgroup\/?p=2570"},"modified":"2026-09-18T15:44:17","modified_gmt":"2026-09-18T19:44:17","slug":"september-2026-monthly-review","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/advisor.wellington-altus.ca\/goldsealfinancialgroup\/september-2026-monthly-review\/","title":{"rendered":"September 2026 Monthly Review"},"content":{"rendered":"

\"TeamGold Seal Monthly Review<\/strong><\/h1>\n

\u201cThe seasons remind us that change is inevitable. Perspective helps us decide what to carry forward.\u201d<\/em><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Welcome back. We hope your summer included time away, good company and at least a few days when checking the news felt entirely optional. Our newsletter took a summer pause, and September has now made its arrival rather clear. The calendars are full, the routines are back, and the weather has already given us a few unwelcome reminders that summer is winding down.<\/p>\n

The markets, of course, did not take the summer off. Trade tensions escalated, the Iran conflict continued to disrupt energy supplies, corporate earnings provided some encouraging surprises, and investment in artificial intelligence (AI) raises bigger questions about how businesses will grow and compete. In this issue, we look at what changed, what deserves our attention and how we are thinking about the months ahead.<\/p>\n

The headlines are loud. What has actually changed?<\/strong><\/p>\n

If you spent less time following the markets this summer, we hope you enjoyed the break. Coming back to tariff announcements, political arguments and another round of interest-rate speculation can make it feel as though everything needs your immediate attention.<\/p>\n

Our view is that there are still good reasons to be invested as we head toward 2027. Businesses are investing in equipment, infrastructure and technology, earnings expectations have improved, and those investments could support growth for years. The risks deserve attention, particularly the combination of trade barriers, energy costs and borrowing costs. For clients, these pressures matter in two ways: they can affect the profits of companies you own and the cost of maintaining your lifestyle.<\/p>\n

U.S. politics: What does it mean for Canadians?<\/strong><\/p>\n

With the U.S. midterm elections approaching on November 3, Canadian investors will hear plenty of predictions about what the outcome means. Our focus is on trade, investment in Canada and the companies held in your portfolios.<\/p>\n

U.S. business incentives can create both opportunities and challenges for Canadian investors. They can support profits at American companies Canadians own, while making it harder for Canada to compete for a new factory or expansion. For a Canadian business considering where to build, tax incentives south of the border and uncertainty about access to American customers can influence that decision. The consequences reach Canadian jobs, suppliers and future growth.<\/p>\n

An election result alone will not settle those questions. We will be watching the policies that follow, particularly whether they make trade and investment more predictable for Canadian businesses.<\/p>\n

Our portfolios can also experience these developments differently from the Canadian economy. A U.S. company we own may benefit from investment incentives even as a Canadian exporter faces more difficult conditions. That is one reason to invest beyond our borders. It also reminds us to look beyond where a company is listed and examine where it earns its revenue, sources its supplies and faces political risk.<\/p>\n

Tariffs create costs on both sides of the border<\/strong><\/p>\n

Canada\u2019s latest counter-tariffs<\/a>\u00a0took effect September 8, applying rates of 15%, 25% and 50% to specified U.S. goods covering approximately $27.6 billion in imports. They followed the U.S. tariff increase in August.<\/p>\n

For Canadians, the pressure comes from both directions. U.S. tariffs make affected Canadian exports more expensive for American buyers, while our own counter-tariffs raise the cost of affected imports here. A Canadian business can absorb the increase and earn less, pass it on and risk losing customers, or delay spending elsewhere. None is particularly appealing.<\/p>\n

Consider a Canadian business importing equipment or materials from the United States. If it absorbs the added cost, its profit falls. If it raises prices, its customers have less left to spend elsewhere. If neither option works, it may postpone expansion or hiring. Canadian exporters face the reverse problem when U.S. customers find their products more expensive and look for alternatives.<\/p>\n

Some Canadian producers may benefit as buyers turn to local suppliers. But additional capacity takes time to build, and the equipment needed may itself be imported. Protection for an industry does not ensure that every business within it benefits.<\/p>\n

For clients, the implications reach beyond share prices. Higher prices can affect retirement spending and major purchases. Business owners may face tighter margins or less predictable orders. Within portfolios, we want to understand a company\u2019s ability to pass on costs, change suppliers and withstand weaker demand. Businesses with manageable debt and room to adapt are better placed to weather a prolonged dispute.<\/p>\n

Iran: Progress proved fragile<\/strong><\/p>\n

The summer brought repeated hopes of an agreement, followed by setbacks. A June deal aimed to halt fighting and reopen the Strait of Hormuz, but further clashes quickly put it under pressure. Negotiations continued into July; by August, efforts to secure a lasting settlement had stalled. Renewed fighting in September\u00a0pushed Brent oil above US$100<\/a>\u00a0a barrel on September 9. Disruption to shipping\u00a0remained a concern in mid-September<\/a>, keeping pressure on energy supplies and transportation costs.<\/p>\n

Canada\u2019s position as an oil producer provides some benefit, but no immunity. Higher prices can support energy companies in our portfolios while increasing fuel, transportation and travel costs. A lasting agreement could ease those pressures, while reducing some of the benefit to producers. We are watching for reliable shipping and restored supply before assuming that relief is on its way.<\/p>\n

Interest rates cannot solve every problem<\/strong><\/p>\n

The Bank of Canada\u00a0remains at 2.25%<\/a>, while the U.S. Federal Reserve\u00a0raised its benchmark range to 3.75%\u20134.00%<\/a>\u00a0on September 16. The debate is whether higher borrowing costs will bring inflation under control or add pressure to households and businesses already squeezed by energy prices and tariffs. For Canadians, the effects can cross the border: U.S. rate expectations influence Canadian bond yields and fixed mortgage rates, even when our own central bank holds steady.<\/p>\n

Higher rates cannot reopen a shipping route or remove a tariff. Expensive fuel and imported goods already leave households with less to spend elsewhere; higher borrowing costs can squeeze them again. They can also discourage investments that would improve productivity and lower costs over time. Yet central banks cannot ignore the risk that temporary price increases become persistent inflation. The challenge is knowing when restraint becomes an additional problem.<\/p>\n

Our concern is that fighting inflation too aggressively could unnecessarily weaken Canadian growth. For clients, that means leaving room for borrowing costs to remain elevated while favouring businesses that can fund their plans without relying on cheaper money arriving soon. We can remain positive about investment opportunities without assuming central banks will make the path easier.<\/p>\n

Where we see opportunity<\/strong><\/p>\n

There was encouraging news beneath the summer headlines.\u00a0Analysts raised their combined third-quarter earnings estimate<\/a>\u00a0for S&P 500 companies during July and August. The improvement was uneven, but it is a reminder that difficult headlines and improving business results can coexist.<\/p>\n

Investment in AI and the infrastructure supporting it also creates opportunities, including for Canada\u2019s energy and industrial businesses. The test is whether that spending produces lasting profits, and whether investors are paying a sensible price for them.\u00a0 Ryan Archambault explores that distinction below in his essay:\u00a0Ryan’s Rundown: AI Has to Earn its Keep.<\/em><\/p>\n

Looking toward 2027, we remain positive about the investment opportunities, supported by the potential for stronger earnings and productivity. Prolonged trade restrictions, expensive energy and borrowing costs could challenge that outlook. We will adjust our assessment as the evidence changes.<\/p>\n

Portfolio Perspective | What this means for your plan<\/strong><\/p>\n

For clients drawing income, the priority is to have upcoming withdrawals supported by suitable cash and shorter-term holdings. That reduces the chance of having to sell growth investments during a difficult market. It is also worth reviewing whether higher living costs have changed the amount you need to withdraw.<\/p>\n

For longer-term investors, the opportunity is to participate in earnings and productivity growth while keeping any one company or investment theme from becoming too large a part of the portfolio. Rebalancing can be sensible after strong gains, even when the outlook for a holding remains positive. The aim is to keep the level of risk appropriate for you as investment values change.<\/p>\n

Bonds also need to be matched to their purpose. Higher yields can provide more income on new purchases, but rising yields generally reduce the market value of bonds already held, especially those with longer maturities. We consider the issuer\u2019s ability to repay, when the money will be needed and how much price fluctuation is appropriate.<\/p>\n

Currency deserves particular attention when investments and spending are in different currencies. A weaker Canadian dollar increases the Canadian-dollar value of unhedged U.S. holdings, but also makes U.S. travel and purchases more expensive; a stronger dollar reverses that effect. Whether that helps or hurts depends partly on where you will spend the money.<\/p>\n

If you have U.S. travel, a property purchase, a mortgage renewal or a family gift ahead, please bring it into the conversation early. Currency movements and borrowing costs can change the amount required. Knowing what you need the money for, and when, gives us a much better basis for decisions than trying to predict the next political headline.<\/p>\n

<\/h2>\n

Gold Seal Insights<\/strong><\/h2>\n

Ryan’s Rundown: AI has to earn its keep<\/span><\/h3>\n

\"Ryan<\/p>\n

Companies are spending enormous sums on AI. Some are building an advantage. Others are running hard just to avoid falling behind. For investors, the question is whether all that spending will leave shareholders better off.<\/p>\n

A business could make the correct strategic decision to spend more and still deliver disappointing returns to shareholders. Perhaps the investment merely prevents a competitor from taking its customers. Perhaps the benefits arrive later than expected. Or perhaps the share price already assumes a remarkably smooth journey from construction budget to cash flow.<\/p>\n

That is the distinction we want to carry into the fall. We can believe that AI is economically important while insisting that the numbers justify the price. Enthusiasm is welcome; it does not get an exemption from arithmetic.<\/p>\n

We are also interested in the less glamorous version of the story: companies using the technology to improve an existing business rather than selling the technology itself. Think less waste, better inventory management and fewer hours spent on routine paperwork. The next attractive AI investment need not have \u201cAI\u201d in its name. It might simply be a well-run business getting better at what it already does.<\/p>\n

The physical world gets a vote, too. A compelling business case is not the same as a completed facility. Where will the electricity come from? Can the equipment arrive on time? For Canadian investors, this creates opportunities beyond technology, including power, equipment and materials. That does not make every utility an AI winner or every mining company a bargain. We would want to understand who bears the construction risk, who funds the expansion, and who ultimately receives the economic benefit. A bottleneck can create an opportunity. Paying too much for the opportunity can still produce a poor investment.<\/p>\n

There is another wrinkle: a broader opportunity is not automatically a diversified portfolio. Consider a portfolio owning a cloud provider, an electrical-equipment supplier and a lender financing data centres. Those are different businesses. But if each investment depends on the same construction budgets continuing to grow, three labels may conceal one underlying bet.<\/p>\n

We remain constructive about the opportunity, while being particular about the price and how much of the portfolio depends on it. The purpose of the portfolio remains the life it is intended to support: retirement income, family priorities, a business transition or the flexibility to make a different choice. Our job is to connect the opportunity to those outcomes, not to win a contest for the boldest market prediction.<\/p>\n

<\/h2>\n

Two reasons to celebrate!<\/span><\/h2>\n

We\u2019re proud to share that Gold Seal Financial Group has been named one of Wealth Professional\u2019s\u00a02026 5-Star Advisory Teams<\/a>, alongside Tanya Wilson\u2019s recognition as a\u00a02026 5-Star Advisor<\/a>. Both honours draw on client nominations, making them especially meaningful to us. They are a welcome recognition of the care, collaboration and work our entire team puts into looking after you and your families. Thank you for your trust and for giving us so much to be proud of.\"\" \"\"<\/p>\n

<\/h3>\n

<\/h3>\n

Tanya’s Tips: Tax returns deserve a second set of eyes<\/h3>\n

\"Tanya\"<\/p>\n

We recently worked through a tax situation that is a good reminder of how quickly small reporting errors can turn into a very large headache.<\/p>\n

The clients had been hit with unexpected balances owing on their tax return, reassessments and significant quarterly instalment requirements. On review, we found several errors that needed to be corrected, including missing investment management fees, tax withheld at source that had been entered incorrectly, and capital gains reporting that did not reconcile. None of these issues were particularly complicated. That is exactly the point.<\/p>\n

Tax returns involving multiple investment accounts, T3s, T5s, T5008s, T5013s, foreign currency and pension income can become complicated very quickly. A single incorrect box, a missing adjusted cost base or a duplicated slip can materially change the result.<\/p>\n

The practical lesson is simple: a filed tax return is not automatically a correct tax return.<\/strong><\/p>\n

A few simple safeguards can save a lot of grief:<\/p>\n