{"id":2606,"date":"2026-10-29T18:04:58","date_gmt":"2026-10-29T22:04:58","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/advisor.wellington-altus.ca\/goldsealfinancialgroup\/?p=2606"},"modified":"2026-10-30T18:34:54","modified_gmt":"2026-10-30T22:34:54","slug":"october-2026-monthly-review","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/advisor.wellington-altus.ca\/goldsealfinancialgroup\/october-2026-monthly-review\/","title":{"rendered":"October 2026 Monthly Review"},"content":{"rendered":"

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Gold Seal Monthly Review<\/strong><\/h1>\n

\u201cThe difficulty lies, not in the new ideas, but in escaping from the old ones\u201d\u00a0<\/em><\/p>\n

\u2013 John Maynard Keynes<\/em><\/p>\n

A historic turning point for B.C.: from election promises to economic opportunity<\/span><\/h2>\n

For the first time in nearly a century, British Columbia is preparing for a Conservative government.<\/em> Not since 1928, when Simon Fraser Tolmie led the party to victory, have B.C. voters elected a Conservative government. On October 24, that changed dramatically, with Lorne Doerkson leading his party to a decisive majority and ending nine years of NDP government.<\/p>\n

Whatever your political persuasion, the significance of this moment is difficult to overstate. Elections often promise change, but this one represents a fundamental shift in the province’s political landscape. For investors, business owners and families, it also raises an intriguing question: could a new direction in economic policy unlock opportunities that have been difficult to realize in recent years?<\/p>\n

The incoming government’s agenda is ambitious. Lower personal taxes, reduced regulatory barriers, faster approvals for major projects, expanded energy development and renewed efforts to attract private investment are central to its platform. These are meaningful commitments, particularly for a province blessed with enormous natural resources, entrepreneurial talent and access to global markets. The opportunity is substantial, but so is the responsibility to deliver.<\/p>\n

The promises that matter to your pocketbook<\/strong><\/p>\n

Perhaps the most immediately relevant proposal for our clients is the Conservatives’ commitment to increase B.C.’s basic personal tax exemption to $32,000. According to the party’s plan, this would provide approximately $1,000 in annual provincial income tax savings for eligible individuals, or $2,000 for a typical two-income household. The party has also pledged not to introduce new taxes or increase existing ones.<\/p>\n

For higher-income families, retirees and business owners, tax policy can have a meaningful influence on financial planning decisions. Greater certainty around taxation would be welcome, particularly when coordinating retirement withdrawals, corporate distributions and estate strategies. However, these proposals are not yet law, and the details of their implementation will matter enormously.<\/p>\n

Beyond personal taxation, the government has promised to accelerate housing and resource development, reduce regulatory delays and encourage new business investment. There is a compelling economic argument for making B.C. a more attractive place to deploy capital. When projects move forward, the benefits can extend well beyond the companies involved, supporting employment, local businesses, infrastructure and provincial revenues.<\/p>\n

A reason for optimism, and a reason to pay attention<\/strong><\/p>\n

Of course, ambitious promises are considerably easier to make on the campaign trail than to deliver from the Premier’s office.<\/p>\n

One of the most important tests will be fiscal discipline. The Conservatives have outlined a plan to reduce B.C.’s projected deficit to $10.8 billion by 2030, relying partly on stronger economic growth and spending restraint. Whether those assumptions prove realistic remains to be seen. Cutting taxes, improving services and reducing deficits simultaneously is an attractive proposition, but achieving all three requires considerably more than political enthusiasm.<\/p>\n

The same scrutiny applies to major development projects. Faster permitting and regulatory reform could encourage investment, but successful execution will also depend on infrastructure capacity, financing, market demand, environmental obligations and relationships with First Nations. Announcing an opportunity and bringing it to fruition are two very different things.<\/p>\n

We see reason to be constructive about policies that encourage investment, improve competitiveness and provide greater financial certainty. But optimism should never mean suspending judgment. We’ll be watching not just what the new government announces, but what it actually accomplishes.<\/p>\n

Politics makes headlines. Fundamentals drive portfolios.<\/strong><\/p>\n

While B.C.’s election may have significant implications for provincial businesses and personal financial planning, history reminds us that political outcomes rarely translate into predictable market returns.<\/p>\n

Consider the U.S. election in 2016. S&P 500 futures initially plunged as President Donald Trump’s unexpected victory became apparent, yet the index finished the following trading session higher. Similarly, traditional energy stocks performed exceptionally well during the early Biden administration, despite a policy agenda emphasizing renewable energy. In both cases, economic fundamentals ultimately proved more influential than the political narrative.<\/p>\n

With U.S. midterm elections approaching on November 3, investors can expect another round of speculation about which sectors might benefit or suffer. Our approach remains unchanged. We don’t make portfolio decisions based on election predictions. Earnings, valuations, interest rates and long-term economic trends remain much more important to investment outcomes.<\/p>\n

For B.C., however, the election creates an opportunity to reassess some important financial planning assumptions. We’ll be monitoring the new government’s tax legislation, budget decisions and economic policies closely, and evaluating how any changes may benefit our clients.<\/p>\n

After nearly 100 years, British Columbia is embarking on a new political chapter. There is reason to be interested in what comes next, and plenty of potential for meaningful economic progress.<\/p>\n

The election has delivered a mandate for change. Now comes the more important test: turning that mandate into measurable results.<\/em><\/p>\n

Of rates and robots<\/h3>\n

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Source: AI-generated illustration featuring Ryan Archambault. Image provided by Gold Seal Financial Group.<\/em><\/p>\n

Ryan recently shared with the team that he had been spending some of his free time inside a giant space robot. An older video game, adapted for virtual reality, had turned a familiar adventure on a screen into something he could step inside. Apparently, sitting quietly in front of a computer was no longer sufficiently sophisticated.<\/p>\n

The entertainment value was obvious. The investment implications took a little more unpacking. Across software development, artificial intelligence (AI) is shortening the distance between understanding how something works and building something that does a similar job. For customers, that could be wonderful. For companies charging handsomely for the original, the conversation becomes rather less recreational.<\/p>\n

Developers of another older game<\/a> report that AI reconstructed major systems overnight, following six months of work with earlier tools. The same activity is reaching products people pay good money to use. PhotoCraft<\/a>, for example, is building an independent alternative to Adobe Photoshop. It is early and unfinished, but the direction is interesting: even expensive software subscriptions are becoming targets for new competitors.<\/p>\n

The investment question does not require every challenger to be perfect. A competitor only has to become useful enough and cheap enough to make customers reconsider what they are paying. Subscription revenue is particularly attractive until the subscriber develops an opinion.<\/p>\n

A considerable amount of shareholder wealth rests on the assumption that what a company does is difficult or expensive to reproduce. We call that a competitive advantage. Occasionally, we pay as though it comes with a lifetime warranty. Of course, established companies also offer reliability and support, and can use AI to improve their own products.<\/p>\n

This is where the excitement around productivity meets the less forgiving arithmetic of investing. A technology can make the economy more productive while shifting profits away from the businesses that previously collected them. AI could deliver on its promises while some investments made in its name disappoint spectacularly.<\/p>\n

There is a security dimension as well. Mozilla<\/a> reported fixing 271 flaws found with AI’s help in its Firefox browser, a reminder that these tools can both protect software and expose weaknesses elsewhere.<\/p>\n

The opportunity beyond the technology<\/strong><\/p>\n

For all those risks, there is a compelling economic opportunity here. Better tools can help businesses produce more with the resources they have. The benefits could extend well beyond the companies selling the tools, which matters when deciding where the next dollar of investment should go. Smaller firms could gain access to capabilities previously beyond their budgets. Our task is to consider who captures those savings and whether the share price already assumes a generous helping of them.<\/p>\n

Dr. Jim Thorne, our Chief Market Strategist, develops a related argument in his\u00a0October Market Insights<\/a>. Investment in AI, energy, and infrastructure can expand productive capacity and help an economy manage its debt burden through growth. His concern is that the U.S. Federal Reserve could mistake the spending needed to build that capacity for overheating, then raise borrowing costs and delay the very projects that could lower future costs.<\/p>\n

That is a useful lens, without assuming every proposed project will earn its keep. A productive asset can support future income. An impressive announcement has somewhat less capacity to service a loan. And higher financing costs can turn a promising long-term idea into an uncomfortable short-term investment.<\/p>\n

What the bond and equity markets are telling us<\/strong><\/p>\n

All that investment in AI, energy and infrastructure needs financing, and borrowing costs matter. On October 14, the Canadian ten-year government bond<\/a> yielded 3.85%, while the U.S. equivalent<\/a> yielded 5.19%, up from 4.18% at the end of 2025. These rates help determine the cost of long-term borrowing, which can have a significant influence on whether ambitious projects make financial sense.<\/p>\n

For investors, higher bond yields are a mixed blessing. New bonds offer more income, but the market value of existing bonds generally falls when yields rise. And a higher yield isn’t necessarily a better deal. Even higher-quality corporate bonds were offering just 0.84 percentage points more than comparable U.S. government bonds. That’s the extra income investors receive for taking on the additional risk of lending to a company rather than the government. The question is whether that extra return is worth the risk. As always, the largest number on the yield sheet is not automatically the best bargain.<\/p>\n

Equity investors face a similar distinction between an exciting business and an attractive investment. The S&P 500’s ten largest positions<\/a> accounted for almost 39% of the index on October 14. Five hundred companies on the label does not mean five hundred equally sized investments. Those businesses may continue to deliver excellent results. The issue is how much of a portfolio depends on their doing so, and how much optimism is already reflected in their prices. Owning several funds does not necessarily solve that problem if their largest holdings keep introducing themselves under different fund logos.<\/p>\n

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Source: State Street \u2014 S&P 500 Index Holdings<\/a><\/span>
Index holdings table, October 14, 2026. Ten largest positions sum to 38.87%; both Alphabet share classes are included.<\/span><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

Bringing it all together in Serenity<\/strong><\/p>\n

These are the kinds of questions we have been working through in Serenity. Our recent portfolio work reduced selected software positions and broadened our sources of growth. We retain meaningful technology exposure, including Adobe. Recognizing a competitive threat means reassessing a business and its valuation; it does not require assuming that every established company will lose.<\/p>\n

We also hold international exposure and allocations to gold, copper miners, infrastructure, and other resources. Those investments have their own risks, but they give us ways to participate beyond the sale of software subscriptions. A more digital economy still needs electricity and physical infrastructure. Code may be copied quickly. Copper still needs to be mined.<\/p>\n

In the Serenity Growth model, the international allocation remains 20%, five percentage points above its strategic allocation, alongside 25% in fixed income. Balanced and Balanced Growth carry different mixes suited to their objectives. The accompanying chart shows those target allocations; individual accounts can differ with circumstances and market movements.<\/p>\n

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We assess the portfolio as a whole, including the equity exposure within alternatives. What matters is how the holdings work together, where growth comes from and what can fund withdrawals when markets become uncooperative.<\/p>\n

A central purpose of the overall mix is to help clients stay invested through periods when markets are less agreeable. For clients drawing an income, access to cash and suitable fixed-income holdings can reduce the pressure to sell equities after a sharp decline. The amount needed depends on the client\u2019s spending and circumstances.<\/p>\n

Markets can take their time deciding what something is worth. Retirement expenses tend to arrive on schedule.<\/p>\n

We can invest in an extraordinary future while allowing for tougher competition, expensive mistakes and the occasional unhelpful central banker. Serenity’s role is to keep those possibilities in proportion to the plans our clients are funding. Enthusiasm is useful. So is having room for events to unfold differently from the forecast.<\/p>\n

Ryan’s research from inside the space robot may continue. Whether the equipment qualifies as an investment committee expense remains an entirely separate discussion.<\/p>\n

Gold Seal Insights<\/h1>\n

 <\/p>\n

\"Tanya\"<\/p>\n

Tanya’s Tips: when a familiar voice isn’t who you think it is<\/span><\/h2>\n

Technology is evolving quickly, and unfortunately, so are fraudsters. One increasingly sophisticated scam involves using artificial intelligence (AI) to imitate someone’s voice. With just a short audio clip from a video, social media post or other recording, criminals can create a remarkably convincing copy of a real person’s voice.<\/p>\n

Known as deepfake or voice-cloning scams, these calls may appear to come from a family member, friend or someone representing an organization you trust. The caller might claim there’s an emergency, request sensitive information or pressure you to transfer money immediately. Think of it as a high-tech version of the familiar “grandparent scam,” except the voice on the other end of the phone may sound exactly like someone you know.<\/p>\n

Even more concerning, fraudsters can manipulate caller ID to make it appear as though the call is coming from a legitimate phone number. In other words, a familiar voice and a recognizable phone number are no longer reliable proof of someone’s identity.<\/strong><\/p>\n

Fortunately, protecting yourself doesn’t have to be complicated. Be cautious of unexpected requests involving money or personal information, particularly when there’s pressure to act quickly. If something seems unusual, end the conversation and call the person or organization directly using a phone number you already know and trust. Never rely on contact information provided during a suspicious call.<\/p>\n

If a request involves your investment accounts, you’re always welcome to contact our office directly to verify its authenticity.<\/p>\n

Fraudsters rely on creating urgency and exploiting trust. Taking just a moment to independently verify a request can make all the difference in protecting your finances and personal information.<\/p>\n

\"Mallory\"Mallory’s Mind: how to set financial goals<\/h2>\n

Clients often struggle to put their financial goals into action. We hope to help you translate vague goals like \u201cretirement\u201d into a specific plan.<\/p>\n

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    \n
  1. Consider what matters most to you. Early retirement, supporting family, travel, stability, etc. Goals that are personal to your values are more likely to succeed.<\/li>\n
  2. Assign each goal a target date, and dollar amount in today\u2019s money. It is okay to use estimates.<\/li>\n
  3. Divide your goals into short, medium, and long-term. Within each, order by priority. Some goals may be non-negotiable, some more discretionary.<\/li>\n
  4. Know where you are starting. Define your income sources, expenses, assets, and debts.\u00a0Our team can provide a worksheet to help you develop your financial synopsis.<\/strong><\/li>\n
  5. Work with a Certified Financial Planner (CFP\u00ae) professional to build a written plan. Action items might include automating savings, debt repayment, investment strategies, insurance needs analysis, and tax planning.<\/li>\n
  6. Track your progress at set intervals and make updates whenever life changes. Marriage, divorce, career changes, inheritances. Financial plans should not be static.<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n

    Financial planning turns someday into a dollar amount, a timeline, and an action you can take today.<\/p>\n

    Noteworthy Links<\/h1>\n