{"id":1784,"date":"2025-03-27T22:44:23","date_gmt":"2025-03-27T22:44:23","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/advisor.wellington-altus.ca\/harvest-time-wealth\/?p=1784"},"modified":"2025-03-27T22:44:44","modified_gmt":"2025-03-27T22:44:44","slug":"a-cloud-of-uncertainty","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/advisor.wellington-altus.ca\/harvest-time-wealth\/a-cloud-of-uncertainty\/","title":{"rendered":"A Cloud of Uncertainty"},"content":{"rendered":"\t\t<div data-elementor-type=\"wp-post\" data-elementor-id=\"1784\" class=\"elementor elementor-1784\" data-elementor-post-type=\"post\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<section class=\"elementor-section elementor-top-section elementor-element elementor-element-7611bf84 elementor-section-boxed elementor-section-height-default elementor-section-height-default\" data-id=\"7611bf84\" data-element_type=\"section\" data-e-type=\"section\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-container elementor-column-gap-default\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-column elementor-col-100 elementor-top-column elementor-element elementor-element-48fee407\" data-id=\"48fee407\" data-element_type=\"column\" data-e-type=\"column\">\n\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-wrap elementor-element-populated\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-399672e1 elementor-widget elementor-widget-text-editor\" data-id=\"399672e1\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-e-type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"text-editor.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<p style=\"text-align: justify\"><span style=\"font-size: 12pt\">The rhetorical tautology,<strong><em> \u201cPredictions are difficult,<\/em> especially about the future\u201d<\/strong> may feel particularly relevant today.<sup>1<\/sup> The start of 2025 has been marked by low visibility, with two events casting a cloud of uncertainty over investor sentiment: the launch of DeepSeek\u2019s AI platform\u2014claiming to be a significantly lower-cost model\u2014and U.S. President Trump unleashing a trade war.<\/span><\/p><p style=\"text-align: justify\">While the shift in U.S. policy direction has felt particularly unexpected\u2014from tariffs against its closest ally to talk of annexation\u2014it serves as a reminder of the value of diversification. Until now, Canada\u2019s dependence on the U.S. as its primary export market has largely been overlooked: 77 percent of exports go to the U.S.\u2014no other nation accounts for more than 5 percent.<sup>2<\/sup> Just as diversification is important in portfolio management, it is equally critical in trade.<\/p><p style=\"text-align: justify\">Over recent years, the focus on diversification in investing may have also taken a back seat. Market gains have been largely driven by a handful of U.S. tech giants, whose dominance has gone mostly unchallenged. DeepSeek\u2019s emergence highlights that disruption is inevitable in any innovation cycle, and no sector remains immune.<\/p><p style=\"text-align: justify\">If the first few months of 2025 have taught anything, it is to expect the unexpected. It may also be a watershed moment\u2014signaling a shift toward a new era of national protectionism. Indeed, it appears to be a critical juncture for Canada to focus on strengthening its economic position.<\/p><p style=\"text-align: justify\">The tariff situation has also reignited the debate over its effectiveness. While Trump actively campaigned on using tariffs to address the U.S . deficit and support tax cuts, the old economic principle still holds: <em>If you want more of something, <\/em><em>subsidize it;<\/em> if you want less, tax it. Many economists agree that tariffs will have negative effects on the U.S. economy at a time when it faces its own uncertainties: persistent inflation, higher interest rates and slowing economic growth.<\/p><p style=\"text-align: justify\">Given this backdrop, the tariff situation may evolve. As we have seen, the policy direction of the new U.S. administration is prone to shifting at any time. Even so, the effects of policy changes aren\u2019t always immediate or predictable. And, markets and economies don\u2019t always react as anticipated\u2014as we saw in the pandemic\u2019s aftermath. One of the best ways to navigate uncertainty is by preparing for multiple possible outcomes. Diversification is intended to position portfolios to withstand changing environments and varying conditions.<\/p><p style=\"text-align: justify\">With the shifting rhetoric south of the border, the next four years will likely be a test of investor discipline. Many other factors, such as geopolitical instability, economic declines or stock market volatility, are also beyond an investor\u2019s control. Yet, more often than not, how an investor reacts to these uncontrollable events can have the greatest impact on long-term outcomes. The key will be to look beyond the headlines and keep a broader perspective. While the near-term path may not always be clear, history has shown that, as with any cycle, the seasons change, the clouds will part and brighter days are never far behind.<\/p><p style=\"text-align: justify\">For many of us, recent events feel unsettling. We continue to monitor the ongoing developments and their potential impact on portfolios making adjustments where needed, without losing focus on the longer term. While challenges undoubtedly lie ahead, brighter days will eventually prevail. Please reach out if you have concerns.<\/p><pre><span style=\"font-size: 10pt\">1. Attributed to Niels Bohr, Danish physicist, and Yogi Berra, baseball <\/span><span style=\"font-size: 10pt\">player, known for saying, \u201cIt ain\u2019t over \u2018til it\u2019s over\u201d; 2. https:\/\/www.<\/span><br \/><span style=\"font-size: 10pt\">scotiabank.com\/ca\/en\/about\/economics\/economics-publications\/ <\/span><span style=\"font-size: 10pt\">post.other-publications.canada-and-us-economics-.canada-and-usdecks.<\/span><br \/><span style=\"font-size: 10pt\">trade-stats--january-31--2025-.html<\/span><\/pre><p style=\"text-align: justify\"><a href=\"https:\/\/advisor.wellington-altus.ca\/towerwealthadvisory\/\"><img fetchpriority=\"high\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/advisor.wellington-altus.ca\/towerwealthadvisory\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/37\/2024\/03\/2.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"2088\" height=\"604\" \/><\/a><\/p><p style=\"text-align: justify\"><span style=\"font-size: 8pt;color: #2c4357\">The information contained herein has been provided for information purposes only. The information has been drawn from sources believed to be reliable. Graphs, charts and other numbers are used for illustrative purposes only and do not reflect future values or future performance of any investment. The information does not provide financial, legal, tax or investment advice. Particular investment, tax, or trading strategies should be evaluated relative to each individual\u2019s objectives and risk tolerance. This does not constitute a recommendation or solicitation to buy or sell securities of any kind. Market conditions may change which may impact the information contained in this document. Wellington-Altus Financial Inc. (Wellington-Altus) is the parent company to Wellington-Altus Private Wealth Inc. (WAPW), Wellington-Altus Private Counsel Inc. (WAPC), Wellington-Altus Insurance Inc. (WAII), Wellington-Altus Group Solutions Inc. (WAGS), and Wellington-Altus USA Inc. Wellington-Altus (WA) does not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of the information contained herein, nor does WA assume any liability for any loss that may result from the reliance by any person upon any such information or opinions. Before acting on any of the above, please contact your financial advisor..<\/span><\/p><p style=\"text-align: justify\"><span style=\"font-size: 8pt\">\u00a92024, Wellington-Altus Private Wealth Inc., Wellington-Altus Private Counsel Inc., Wellington-Altus Insurance Inc., Wellington-Altus Group Solutions Inc., and Wellington-Altus USA\u00a0<\/span><span style=\"font-size: 8pt\">Inc. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. NO USE OR REPRODUCTION WITHOUT PERMISSION. <span style=\"color: #2c4357;font-family: var( --e-global-typography-text-font-family ), Sans-serif;font-weight: var( --e-global-typography-text-font-weight );letter-spacing: var( --e-global-typography-text-letter-spacing )\">www.wellington-altus.ca<\/span><\/span><\/p><p style=\"text-align: justify\"><span style=\"font-size: 10pt;color: #2c4357\"><span style=\"font-size: 8pt\">If you no longer wish to receive commercial electronic messages from Wellington-Altus Private Wealth Inc., please send an email to unsubscribe@wellington-altus.ca<\/span><\/span><\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/section>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>As an investor, wouldn\u2019t it be great to travel back in time 30 years to alter the course of the future? Knowing what you know now, would you choose to do things differently?<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":68,"featured_media":1571,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_oasis_is_in_workflow":0,"_oasis_original":0,"_oasis_task_priority":"","_exactmetrics_skip_tracking":false,"_exactmetrics_sitenote_active":false,"_exactmetrics_sitenote_note":"","_exactmetrics_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[24],"tags":[144,157,146,42,145,79,49],"class_list":["post-1784","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-articles","tag-capital-gains","tag-financial-advice","tag-financial-freedom","tag-financial-planning","tag-wealth-advisory","tag-wealth-management","tag-wealth-planning"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.3 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>A Cloud of Uncertainty - Harvest Time Wealth<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/advisor.wellington-altus.ca\/harvest-time-wealth\/a-cloud-of-uncertainty\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"A Cloud of Uncertainty - Harvest Time Wealth\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"As an investor, wouldn\u2019t it be great to travel back in time 30 years to alter the course of the future? 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