Conrad Kluge Wealth Advisory Group Wellington-Altus Private Wealth
You watched the markets fall in March 2026 (like what happened 12 months earlier). You watched the news get worse before it got better. You asked the question that every high-net-worth investor asks during a correction: is this the one that does not come back?
That is a reasonable question. It deserves a direct answer. Here is what we saw, what we did, and why.
What you were watching
Since late March 2026, key indices—including the S&P 500 and the NASDAQ—have rallied to new all-time highs in a powerful nine-week rally from the bottom of the pullback to the end of May 2026. If your portfolio was positioned well during that period, you participated in a significant recovery. If fear pushed you out of the market, you did not.
Understanding what drove that sequence of events is worth your time, because the same pattern will appear again.
What the market was pricing in
When the Iran conflict began, markets started pricing in disruption. Oil exports were at risk. So were fertilizer, liquefied natural gas, helium, and other commodities that move through the Strait of Hormuz. Stock prices fell roughly 10 percent from their February highs.
Think of it the way a geologist reads a core sample. One layer of bad rock does not condemn the entire formation. You look at the full column before you decide. What you were seeing on the news in February and early March 2026 was one layer—geopolitical risk—and that layer was real. But it was not the whole picture.
A 10 percent correction is normal. In any given year, one or two of them are normal. The question is never whether a correction is happening. The question is what is happening underneath it.
What was happening underneath
At the same time prices were falling, something was building beneath the surface. Bottom-up earnings estimates from professional analysts were rising rapidly—and had been for several months.
A Chartered Professional Accountant (CPA) evaluating a business acquisition would recognize this immediately. If the asking price drops 10% and the expected earnings of the business rise 10%, the effective value of what you are buying has shifted by approximately 20%. That is not a small number. That is the kind of change that serious buyers pay attention to.
That is exactly what happened in your portfolio’s underlying holdings. The S&P 500 dropped roughly 10% in price. Earnings estimates rose roughly 10% at the same time. The combined valuation shift—what you were paying per dollar of expected earnings—was approximately 20%. For context, that is comparable to the valuation drop during the tariff disruption fears of April 2025. The market was offering a significant discount on businesses that were still growing.
Why the market recovered
By late March, markets began to look past the immediate disruption. Markets do not price today’s headline. They price what they expect to happen nine, 12, and 18 months from now.
The conclusion the market reached was that the Iran conflict, while serious, would reach a negotiated resolution before long term damage was done. That belief shifted attention back to earnings. And when earnings season arrived, the actual results were well ahead of what analysts had forecast—closer to 17% growth, against the 10% estimated before “earnings season”. (Source: FactSet.)
Markets moved up to reflect reality.
The conversation I want you to read carefully
Here is the part that matters most, and I want to say it plainly.
When the fear was at its peak—when the headlines were at their worst and prices were still falling—we were buying stocks in your portfolio. Not because we knew exactly how the Iran situation would resolve, or when. But because the data said you were being offered a 20% discount on growing businesses, and that is the kind of opportunity we exist to act on, on your behalf.
That decision did not feel comfortable. It rarely does. Buying into fear never feels as safe as waiting. But your financial plan is not built around what feels safe in the moment. It is built around what the evidence supports over time.
What I want you to take from this is not that we were right, or that markets always recover quickly. I want you to understand what we are doing when markets get difficult. We are not watching and waiting. We are reading the data, weighing the evidence, and making deliberate decisions with your long-term interests as the only consideration. When the data points clearly in one direction, we move—even when the news is telling you the opposite.
This pattern will repeat. The Iran situation is not the last time markets will fall on fear that turns out to be larger than the underlying reality. When it happens again, I want you to know what our process looks like and to feel confident that it is working for you.
What you should do now
If this period raised questions about your portfolio’s structure or your tolerance for volatility, that is a productive conversation to have right now—not during the next correction. This is exactly the kind of conversation I am here to have.
Reach out. These are the discussions that matter.
Conrad Kluge CFA, CFP leads the Kluge Wealth Advisory Group and is a financial advisor at Wellington-Altus Private Wealth, working with high-net-worth families in Calgary Alberta. This post is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Please consult with a qualified financial professional regarding your specific situation.