Kluge Wealth Advisory Group – A few thoughts about 2023
Based on questions I have been getting from clients I have collected a few thoughts. As always, the focus of the Kluge Wealth Advisory Group is on preparation and not prediction. We always need to be prepared for a wide range of events and outcomes and to carefully balance both risks and rewards. First, […]
The 2023 Market Forecast – The Pause that Refreshes
January 9, 2023 Patience is a form of wisdom Download this PDF here. “All models are wrong. Some models are useful.” — George E. P. Box, statistician “Patience is a form of wisdom,” notes Jon Kabat-Zinn, creator of the Stress Reduction Clinic and the Center for Mindfulness in Medicine at the University of Massachusetts Medical […]
Investment Insights – Winter 2023
Most people, investors or not, tend to base their current views on what is most recent in memory. In good times, we may expect them to continue for the foreseeable future; in bad times, we often underestimate our ability to move forward. We all tend to “drive by the rearview mirror” to some extent, basing our decision making on what has just happened.
Trump, Gridlock And What It Means For Investors In 2023
November 21, 2022 Gridlock is good for reducing inflation Download this PDF here. “Permanent high inflation is everywhere and always a fiscal phenomenon” – Thomas Sargent, Nobel Prize Winner in Economics 2011 Steve Jobs once said, “You can’t connect the dots looking forward; you can only connect them looking backward. So, you have to trust […]
Highlights from the 2022 Federal Fall Economic Statement
On November 3, 2022, Canada’s Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Finance, the Honourable Chrystia Freeland delivered the 2022 Fall Economic Statement (FES 2022). FES 2022 highlighted key metrics of the Canadian economy and the government’s proposed new spending measures.
October Market Insights: Is The Fed Repeating The Mistake Of 1937?
In a recent article, Economist Bradford DeLong, shares a conversation he had with U.S. Secretary of the Treasury Janet Yellen, where she said that with the lack of models, the U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) is prone to react to the groupthink of media pundits. If true, the Fed, concerned about repeating the mistakes of the 1970s, may be repeating the mistakes of the 1930s.
September Market Insights: Waiting for Godot
Investors are waiting for their own Godot – certainty about the future. Like Godot, that certainty never comes. Yet, we keep waiting for it, even with a highly levered global economy that’s experienced two exogenous shocks. Central bankers are concerned that inflationary expectations will become unanchored.
August Market Insights: The Global Economy has its Hamlet Moment
Rebirth or a Financial Crisis
“To be or not to be, that is the question. Whether ‘tis nobler in the mind to suffer the slings and arrows of outrageous fortune.” — Hamlet, Act 3, Scene 1, William Shakespeare Words and phrases derive much of their meaning from the context in which they are expressed.
July Market Insights: The Fed & Its Use of Economic Coercion
The old saying “don’t fight the Fed” has been a golden rule in investing that has served investors well for many decades. Yet, today, confidence in the Fed’s performance has waned, with market pundits criticizing the central banks for waiting too long to fight inflation.
June Market Insights: The Fed, From Tragedy to Rebirth?
Just Follow the Path of the Credit Markets
“Always make the audience suffer as much as possible.” — Alfred Hitchcock
Alfred Hitchcock once suggested that drama is life with the dull parts cut out. Given the state of the financial markets, this has never been more relevant than it is today.