A NEW WAY TO CONTACT US
We have a new email address for our clients to use when contacting us on all administrative matters. It is:
marchewealth@wellington-altus.ca
This is part of our never-ending effort to deliver on our promise of Your life, uncomplicated. The beauty of this single email address for our admin is that we all have access to it. So, if anyone is away, any one of us can promptly respond to your message.
At the same time, it is important to note that you can always reach us directly on any matter at our personal email addresses, which are shown at the bottom of this blog post.
IRAN UPDATE
U.S. President Donald Trump has said many times that a deal with Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz is “largely negotiated,” yet there has not been a signed agreement. Before the conflict, roughly one-fifth of global oil shipments went through the Strait—so its continued closure has kept energy prices high. While the world economy has so far demonstrated resilience, sustained commodity supply disruptions create a significant risk of lower growth and higher inflation.
Even so, equity markets have recovered from their March correction and advanced further on the back of healthy corporate earnings and optimism of an eventual U.S. Iran deal. That said, bond yields remain well above where they started the year, as markets consider the possibility that the energy shock could keep inflation pressures firmer for longer.
As you can see, the outlook contains a certain amount of uncertainty—but we remain confident, as we focus on diversifying portfolios across sectors and asset classes, an approach which can withstand a wide range of market outcomes.
If you have any questions at all, please reach out.
WARREN’S WISDOM
Warren Buffett is the world’s greatest value investor. Berkshire Hathaway, the organization of which he is still Chairman of the Board, is sitting on “the largest cash hoard in its history: US$397.4 billion at the end of Q1 2026—more than the gross domestic product (GDP) of South Africa, and around 59 per cent of its investable portfolio.”
(For reference, if you sat on a pile of 397.4 billion one-dollar U.S. bills, you would be 43,400 km in the air, 11.3 per cent of the way to the moon, and above the level of geostationary orbit.)
As disciples of Buffett, this should tell us something—we should be very concerned that the market is overpriced. Our view, indeed, is that it is overdue for a correction.
True to one of Buffett’s many memorable maxims, we should “be fearful when others are greedy, and greedy when others are fearful.” Therefore, we are now being as careful and defensive as we have ever been. There are many companies that are, in our view, very expensive right now. It is getting difficult to find businesses that meet our stringent and long-term investment criteria. We have started to do some prudent selling, lessening our exposure, and rebalancing portfolios as appropriate, by trimming equities that, because of their strong growth, have become a higher-than-planned percentage of our portfolios.
That word, “planned,” is pivotal. Everything we do is driven by the financial plans of our clients, and all of those plans are ahead of schedule – which allows us to do some thoughtful selling and lock in some gains.
SPACEX
The SpaceX IPO, or initial public offering, has attracted an enormous amount of hype. It is intended to raise US$75 billion, which will be the largest IPO in history. The company would be valued at roughly US$1.75 trillion after the offering. As the Globe and Mail puts it:
“An unusually large portion of the SpaceX debut – roughly 30 per cent of the stock – is being earmarked for individual shareholders. In most IPOs, bankers allocate the bulk of stock to institutional funds, their biggest clients, and set aside less than 10 per cent for the retail crowd.”
This increased access for non-institutional investors is greatly adding to the mania.
We’re not buying it. The IPO, at least. Returning to Buffett’s maxim, we are choosing to be fearful when others are greedy. And so, we will take a wait-and-see approach with SpaceX. If we were to someday buy it, we would need it to fit our long-time, stringent investment criteria as mentioned above. One pillar of that criteria is that we must view the company as trading for less than its intrinsic value. Another is that—aligned with another one of our Buffett-inspired philosophies—we would need to clearly and deeply understand its business model.
As it happens, we do not understand SpaceX well, and we also view it as complicated. It contains Starlink, for example, a different business that focuses on satellite internet. And within SpaceX itself, there are launch services, rockets, spacecraft, military contracts, and more.
All of that said, we see the importance of being prudently invested in the space and defence industries, especially considering the opportunities in Canada, given our federal government’s commitment to increase defence and security-related spending to 5% of GDP by 2035. Canada has already reached NATO’s 2% of GDP benchmark, and is now on a path toward the new target, which includes both core military spending and broader defence-related infrastructure and security investments.
MDA SPACE
For the above reasons, we bought MDA Space in January of this year. We understand it much better: SpaceX is multifaceted, but MDA Space is more of a pure play, a 55-year-old global leader especially well-known for its creation of the Canadarm and Canadarm2. MDA is receiving American contracts as well as Canadian ones, and we are very pleased with its performance since our January purchase.
Note: what an image that is at the top of this blog: “November 1995 – Canadian astronaut Chris Hadfield is the only Canadian to be at the controls of the Canadarm during Russian Mir Space Station operations.” (Credit: NASA)
IS CANADA IN RECESSION?
It has not quite rocketed to the level of SpaceX IPO mania, but there has been a lot of talk about whether Canada is in recession.
Canada’s latest GDP report shows that economic output slipped 0.1 per cent annualized in the first quarter, well below expectations and marking a second consecutive quarterly decline. While this met the common definition of a “technical recession,” we believe the underlying details were not as weak as the headlines suggest.
For example, much of the downside surprise is due to a pullback in government defence spending after strong outlays in 2025 (this is simply a temporary fluctuation in defence spending amid a strong overall upward trend). As well, Canada’s population fell for a second consecutive quarter as immigration slowed, leading to a rise in real GDP per person of 0.9 per cent annualized. This might seem to contradict the 0.1 per cent slippage but does not, since our total economic output was spread among fewer people.
Overall, the latest GDP report points to a sluggish and uneven economy, but not one experiencing a significant broad-based slowdown.
BANKS LED CANADIAN EARNINGS
Canada’s big banks kicked off Q2 earnings season with results that generally exceeded expectations. Strong equity markets, improved dealmaking and elevated trading activity helped drive healthy revenue and profit growth and offset softness in consumer lending.
Even though their earnings reports were favourable, the effects on their share price were mixed. Valuation may be part of the explanation: after a period of strong performance, Canadian banks’ valuations sit above long-term averages, leaving less room for positive surprises to be rewarded.
CANADA DAY WILL BE CUSMA DAY
Trade policy remains the key near-term risk. Our expectation is that the trade terms in the Canada-United States-Mexico Agreement (CUSMA) will remain broadly intact, but the review process, which must formally begin on July 1, is likely to bring unsettling headlines. The recently proposed 10 per cent U.S. tariff shows that even limited measures can create complexity and weigh on business sentiment, even if CUSMA-compliant goods are likely to be exempt.
WHAT TO DO WITH A TAX REFUND?
We are honoured to serve multiple generations in many of our client families. The needs of younger family members tend to be different than those of their parents and grandparents. At tax refund time, these differences often rise to the surface, which puts us in an especially strong position to help.
Younger generations may be considering what to do with refunds they may receive this time of year and trying to determine if the best strategy is their Registered Retirement Savings Account (RRSP), Tax Free Savings Account (TFSA), or First Home Savings Account (FHSA).
Here is the big risk: doing nothing, because the options seem too complicated.
Let me assure you that at Marche Wealth Management, we are completely committed to our promise of Your life, uncomplicated. On many occasions, we have spoken with younger generations in our client families—explaining the options clearly, simply, and patiently, and answering absolutely any questions at all.
Is there a person of any age in your family—perhaps it’s you—who’s interested in this support? Just reach out to us. Our contact information is at the bottom of this blog post.
SUMMER IS (ALMOST) HERE
The Stanley Cup playoffs are almost over, which can only mean one thing: we are very close to the official start of summer. Depending on your feelings about soccer, street parties and traffic, you may be excited about the World Cup. Whether you are planning to stay in the city or head for the countryside, we wish you and yours a very happy summer!
We don’t speak jargon. We’re all about uncomplicating your life, so we speak plain English. If there is someone you care about—someone who would appreciate this simple approach—please feel free to share this message with them or put us in touch.
Want to discuss any aspect of this month’s blog, or any other issue on your mind? Have a story idea? I am always happy to receive your call or email.
Tyler Marche, MBA, CFP®, CIM, FMA, FCSI®
Your life, uncomplicated
tyler.marche@wellington-altus.ca
416.446.5432
WHO WE ARE
Tyler Marche, MBA, CFP®, CIM, FMA, FCSI® – Senior Wealth Advisor & Senior Portfolio Manager
Elizabeth Yip – Senior Investment Associate
Joy Loewen – Associate
Tracy McClure – Associate
Matthew Wilcox – Associate