{"id":1031,"date":"2026-11-06T14:49:06","date_gmt":"2026-11-06T19:49:06","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/advisor.wellington-altus.ca\/marchewealthmanagement\/?p=1031"},"modified":"2026-11-06T14:49:08","modified_gmt":"2026-11-06T19:49:08","slug":"marche-monthly-85-october-2026","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/advisor.wellington-altus.ca\/marchewealthmanagement\/marche-monthly-85-october-2026\/","title":{"rendered":"Marche Monthly #85 – October 2026"},"content":{"rendered":"

BLUE TSUNAMI<\/strong><\/p>\n

The American people have spoken in the midterms, giving the Democrats control of both the House of Representatives and the Senate.\u00a0 It remains to be seen what damper this may place on President Trump\u2019s ability to do what he wants, as he has demonstrated a willingness to govern through executive orders and retains the power to veto legislation passed by Congress.<\/p>\n

It is worth noting that since 1874, the S&P 500 (which we consider to be the authoritative indicator of how the overall markets are doing) has risen the year following midterms in 32 out of 38 elections, producing an average return of 14%.<\/p>\n

That said, regular readers of Marche Monthly know that our clients do not own the markets (they own a portfolio of businesses that we want to own for many years, in alignment with their overall planning), and that at any rate, the long-term performance of our portfolios will not be affected by who wins US\u00a0elections.<\/p>\n

The ultimate determinant of our portfolios’ performance is not geopolitical events, but the quality of the companies we own, and their earnings over time.\u00a0 We remain very comfortable with our core holdings, including regulated, dividend-paying companies such as banks and utilities.<\/p>\n

We are in a strong position to add more high-quality companies to our portfolios, given that we expect there to be considerable volatility in the final two years of Trump\u2019s mandate, considering Democratic majorities in Congress will be in a position to oppose his policies and perhaps conduct investigations.\u00a0 Volatility is our friend.\u00a0 It gives us the opportunity to buy companies that meet our stringent investment criteria<\/a> and that we believe are priced below their intrinsic value\u2014at a discount, in other words.<\/p>\n

Adding to our strong position is the fact that we have been deliberate about sitting on more cash than at any time since the onset of COVID-19 in 2020.\u00a0 We note that there is considerable fear in the market, confirmed by the Fear and Greed Index<\/a> of investor sentiment.<\/p>\n

As disciples of Warren Buffett, we refer to one of his many famous maxims: \u201cBe fearful when others are greedy, and greedy when others are fearful.\u201d<\/p>\n

Buffett is saying that fear leads others to sell unwisely, which leads to companies being priced below their intrinsic value, which gives us the opportunity to be \u201cgreedy\u201d and buy on sale.<\/p>\n

Much of the fear in the market is driven by investors\u2019 reaction to the fact that more than 40% of companies in the S&P 500 are down over 20% from their recent highs.\u00a0 The takeaway for us, in light of our portfolios being down approximately 3% from the date of the S&P\u2019s all-time high, is that:<\/p>\n