Markets rarely linger in equilibrium. The pendulum of sentiment swings between fear and greed, and this year has been no exception. After April\u2019s lows, the S&P surged over 30 percent in just two months, one of the fastest rallies in recent history, while the TSX hit multiple all-time highs.<\/p>\n
Yet, the mood among investors remained divided. The summer enthusiasm saw a return of speculative fervour: meme stocks and cryptocurrencies (consider that Fartcoin reached a market cap of $1 billion). Many younger investors, who came of age during the low-rate post-pandemic era (and notably have never experienced a prolonged bear market), leaned into the euphoria. More seasoned investors, meanwhile, appeared to be climbing the proverbial \u201cwall of worry,\u201d mindful of cycles past.<\/p>\n
One driver has been the substantial optimism over artificial intelligence (AI). In the first half of 2025, AI capital expenditures contributed more to U.S. GDP growth than consumer spending.1<\/sup> This has prompted some analysts to ask: Would the U.S. economy have contracted without this massive spend? The top four tech firms alone are on track to spend $344 billion in AI capex this year\u2014about one percent of total U.S. GDP.2<\/sup><\/p>\n Indeed, the excitement pushed valuations to elevated levels. By summer\u2019s end, the S&P 500 traded at 22.0x forward earnings; well above its long-term average of 16.7x, with the top 10 stocks at 28.8x.3<\/sup> The S&P\/TSX sat lower at 17.0x, reflecting Canada\u2019s heavier weighting in value- oriented sectors like energy and financials.<\/p>\n Are we approaching bubble territory? At the height of the dot-com boom, the S&P 500 had a forward P\/E of 24.2x, but many stocks traded much higher: Cisco at 200x and Microsoft at 73x! In the late 1990s, simply adding \u201c.com\u201d to a company\u2019s name could send valuations soaring. Today\u2019s tech leaders are different: profitable, diversified, generating substantial cash flow and leaders in innovation. During the bubble of the \u201cNifty Fifty\u201d era in the 1960s and 1970s, Polaroid traded at 90x earnings, yet investors still justified such multiples for \u201cone-\u00a0decision\u201d stocks\u2014buy and never sell.4<\/sup><\/p>\n While momentum can carry further than many anticipate, fundamentals eventually reassert themselves. Earnings growth and return on capital, among others, drive long- term performance, even when short-term dislocations occur. Elevated valuations can reduce upside potential if prices already reflect<\/p>\n optimistic outcomes, and amplify downside risk should expectations falter. The price you pay remains important to achieving strong long- term outcomes. Valuations may not forecast short-term movements, but they remain a dependable compass, helping investors steer between the twin forces of fear and greed.<\/p>\n As the cooler days approach, it is a reminder that the end of the year will be here before we know it. If you need assistance with any investing matters in these final months of 2025 (see pg. 3, in brief), please call. This Thanksgiving season and beyond, we remain grateful for your trust and wish you a wonderful fall.<\/p>\n Canadians are wealthier than ever. The latest statistics show that average household net worth reached $1.03 million last year and continued to rise. Total wealth has grown by 30 percent since 2019, with Millennial and Gen X wealth climbing by over 10 percent in 2024.1<\/sup><\/p>\n Despite facing one of the toughest job markets in decades and a difficult path to homeownership, Gen Z (born 1997 to 2012) is doing just fine. At the same age, Gen Z incomes are 50 percent higher than Boomers\u2019, according to The Economist. By comparison, Gen X incomes were only 16 percent higher than Boomers\u2019 at the same age\u2014the smallest gain of any group, likely due to a weak labour market after the Global Financial Crisis.2<\/sup> Gen Z is also saving better, contributing a greater share to retirement plans than Millennials did when entering the workforce. In 2023, the median RRSP contribution for those under 25 was more than 20 percent higher than Millennials in 2009.3<\/sup><\/p>\n Yet, despite rising wealth across every generation, many don\u2019t feel wealthy. Higher living costs have strained households, while constant connectivity makes it easy for some to feel like they\u2019re falling behind the Joneses. Wealth can be a slippery benchmark\u2014it often feels like it\u2019s never quite enough. Research shows that people quickly adapt.<\/p>\n While incremental increases provide a temporary boost in satisfaction, expectations quickly reset. In one survey, 19 percent of people with a net worth of at least US$500,000 said that \u2018having enough money\u2019 was a constant worry. Yet, among those with a net worth of at least US$10 million, 33 percent felt the same.4<\/sup><\/p>\n At the end of the day, however, it\u2019s worth remembering: being a millionaire (in USD) puts you in the top 1.6 percent of the wealth pyramid globally.5<\/sup><\/p>\n 1. https:\/\/financialpost. com\/wealth\/canadian-households-worth-more-million-2024<\/p>\n 2. https:\/\/www. economist.com\/finance-and-economics\/2024\/04\/16\/generation-z-is-unprecedentedly-rich<\/p>\n 3. https:\/\/www.theglobeandmail.com\/investing\/personal-finance\/retirement\/article-retirement-savings-gen-z-canadians\/<\/p>\n 4. \u201cYour Money & Your Brain,\u201d Jason Zweig, pg. 127<\/p>\n 5. Based on USD. https:\/\/www.ubs.com\/global\/en\/wealthmanagement\/insights\/global-wealth-report.html<\/p>\n After a summer of considerable market enthusiasm surrounding artificial intelligence (AI), it\u2019s worth taking a step back.<\/p>\n Why does AI seem to be advancing so quickly? While it may feel like a recent phenomenon, its roots stretch back to the 1950s when Alan Turing proposed his now-famous \u201cTuring Test\u201d for machine intelligence. What\u2019s different today is the pace of progress, driven by exponential increases in computing power, vast datasets and advances in machine learning algorithms. To put it into perspective, in the late 1980s, annual data creation was measured in terabytes (TB). In 2025, global data generation is expected to exceed 180 zettabytes (ZB)\u2014one ZB is a billion times larger than one TB. At the end of the 1980s, one terabyte of storage cost more than $20 million; today, it is well under $100\u2014a mind-blowing decline in just four decades.1<\/sup><\/p>\n Few doubt that AI will be an economic driver in the years ahead. Technology has long supported productivity gains. Consider how revenue per employee has dramatically increased since 1991 Concerns persist about the concentration of big tech in the S&P 500, but the reality is more nuanced. Today\u2019s largest tech firms differ from the internet darlings of the late 1990s. The \u201cMagnificent Seven\u201d are cash-generating, innovative and diversified, having acquired over 800 companies and expanding across industries. In many ways, they function as modern tech conglomerates\u2014still growing organically, but supported by multiple engines of innovation.<\/p>\n Ultimately, history reminds us that the successful adoption of any new technology doesn\u2019t guarantee financial success for all early adopters. Thoughtful analysis and evaluation, alongside a diversified approach to balance exposure and keep portfolios resilient as conditions shift, can help investors capture innovation\u2019s upside.<\/p>\n 1. https:\/\/ourworldindata.org\/grapher\/historical-cost-of-computer-memory-and-storage <\/p>\n If you\u2019ve eaten fast food recently, you may be surprised by the bill. Thirty years ago, a Big Mac hamburger cost around $2. Today, it is almost four times the price. Over the same period, average family income has risen by 162 percent, while the Consumer Price Index (CPI), the official measure of inflation, increased by 140 percent. Yet, among the items compared below (chart), one cost has far outpaced everything else: university tuition.<\/p>\n With the school year now underway, it is a timely reminder to consider education funding. Ensuring our families have the financial means to support higher education is more important than ever, given the rising costs. An investment program is also a great way for parents, grandparents and other family members to leave a legacy.<\/p>\n <\/p>\n 1. 1987 data is nominal data from: Report on Business Magazine, Apr. 2012, pg. 13;<\/p>\n 2.https:\/\/publications.gc.ca\/collections\/collection_2018\/statcan\/13-208\/CS13-208-1987. 3. Data from CREA; April 1987 and July 2025 data;<\/p>\n 4. Average Sony HDTV price based on 32\u201d and 55\u201d, bestbuy.ca;<\/p>\n 5. MacPro Tower, apple.ca;<\/p>\n 6. LCBO Ontario pricing at July 1987 and July 2025;<\/p>\n 7. economist.com Big Mac Index raw data: https:\/\/github.com\/TheEconomist\/big-mac-data; 8. https:\/\/bankofcanada.ca\/rates\/related\/inflation-calculator\/ for June 1987 & 2025;<\/p>\n 9. At close on 8\/27\/87 and 8\/29\/25.<\/p>\n Registered Education Savings Plan (RESP)<\/strong> \u2014 The most common tool, the RESP offers tax-deferred investment growth, Canada Education Savings Grants (CESGs) of up to $7,200 per beneficiary and potential income-splitting when funds are withdrawn and taxed in a beneficiary\u2019s hands.<\/p>\n Formal Trust<\/strong> \u2014 Unlike RESPs, there are no contribution limits (RESPs have a $50,000 per beneficiary limit), tax deferral or CESG benefits. However, earnings on trust assets may be taxed in the hands of the trust beneficiary if properly structured so attribution rules do not apply. Be aware that once funds are paid to the beneficiary, they can be used for any purpose, not just education.<\/p>\n Life Insurance<\/strong> \u2014 Participating whole life insurance can be structured to accumulate cash value to help cover future education costs. The cash value grows in a tax-advantaged way, and the policy also provides life insurance protection for the beneficiary.<\/p>\n Do You Have a Student in the Family?<\/strong> Despite rising living costs, the share of income spent on necessities has declined. In 1976, households spent about 43 percent of their income on shelter, food and clothing. Today, this has fallen to around 35 percent. What has risen is the share we pay to taxes. In 2025, the average Canadian family paid 43.1 percent in taxes.1 Put differently, if taxes were paid upfront, the first 158 days\u2019 earnings would go entirely to the government!<\/p>\n This is why tax planning continues to be an important part of wealth planning. As we approach the final months of the year, here are a handful of actions, in brief, that may help improve your tax position in 2025:<\/p>\n Split income.<\/strong> This may include electing to split eligible pension income with a spouse or paying reasonable salaries to family members for services provided to your self-employed business.<\/p>\n Contribute to your RRSP.<\/strong> You still have 60 days after the calendar year end to make contributions for the 2025 tax year, but the earlier you contribute, the greater opportunity for tax-deferred growth.<\/p>\n Consider tax-loss harvesting.<\/strong> Realize capital losses to offset capital gains. Please contact the office well before the end of the year to enact this strategy to allow for sufficient settlement time.<\/p>\n Give charitably.<\/strong> Gifting publicly-traded securities to a registered charity may offer tax benefits, including eliminating the capital gains tax liability on appreciated securities. Claim the pension income tax credit.<\/strong> If you are 65 years or older and don\u2019t have eligible pension income, consider opening a small RRIF or purchasing an annuity.<\/p>\n Withdraw from the TFSA before year- <\/strong>end. If you plan to 1976 2025 withdraw, consider Make RESP contributions.<\/strong> While it won\u2019t save tax, you may potentially benefit from the CESGs for 2025.<\/p>\n For more information or ideas, please contact the office.<\/p>\n 1. https:\/\/www.fraserinstitute.org\/commentary\/canadian-families-must-work-nearly-half-year-pay-taxes<\/p>\n Warren Buffett is leaving the building. After almost six decades at the helm of Berkshire Hathaway, Buffett announced earlier this year that he will step down as CEO at the end of the year. Buffett\u2019s departure doesn\u2019t come as a surprise. He named his successor Greg Abel back in 2021, wisely aware that succession planning, like investing, is often most successful when treated as a long game.<\/p>\n Succession planning takes time. Timelines vary based on complexity, but many experts suggest that it typically takes 3 to 5 years to fully implement a plan, and it may even take up to 10 years for family businesses. Yet, time alone isn\u2019t enough. For many small businesses, one of the more overlooked aspects of preparing for a transition is understanding what the business is actually worth. (Of course, as Buffett prepared for his transition, he had the luxury of knowing Berkshire\u2019s value as a publicly-traded company, which reached a trillion-dollar status last year, 44 years after its IPO in 1980!)<\/p>\n The Importance of Valuation<\/strong><\/p>\n Why does valuation matter? Even if you are years away from transitioning your business, knowing your company\u2019s value today can set realistic expectations. It\u2019s not uncommon for business owners to overestimate what their company is worth. A valuation exercise can uncover gaps, for reasons including:<\/p>\n Understanding valuation not only prevents future surprises, but it can also support strategic decisions around growth, succession and family planning:<\/p>\n Knowing your business\u2019s value today can give you better control of tomorrow. It helps you make informed decisions, safeguard your family\u2019s interests and preserve the legacy you\u2019ve worked hard to build. For guidance that goes beyond wealth management, including broader business planning support, our team of specialists can assist. Please call the office for a deeper discussion.<\/p>\n <\/p>\n According to the Canadian Federation for Independent Business (CFIB), over three-quarters of business owners expect to exit their businesses within the next decade, representing a potential transfer of $2 trillion in assets.<\/p>\n Yet, succession planning has taken a back seat:<\/p>\n Markets rarely linger in equilibrium. The pendulum of sentiment swings between fear and greed, and this year has been no exception. After April\u2019s lows, the S&P surged over 30 percent in just two months, one of the fastest rallies in recent history, while the TSX hit multiple all-time highs.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":193,"featured_media":1115,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_oasis_is_in_workflow":0,"_oasis_original":0,"_oasis_task_priority":"","_exactmetrics_skip_tracking":false,"_exactmetrics_sitenote_active":false,"_exactmetrics_sitenote_note":"","_exactmetrics_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[15],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-1105","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-quarterly-commentary"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/advisor.wellington-altus.ca\/melnykwealthmanagement\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1105","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/advisor.wellington-altus.ca\/melnykwealthmanagement\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/advisor.wellington-altus.ca\/melnykwealthmanagement\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/advisor.wellington-altus.ca\/melnykwealthmanagement\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/193"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/advisor.wellington-altus.ca\/melnykwealthmanagement\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=1105"}],"version-history":[{"count":7,"href":"https:\/\/advisor.wellington-altus.ca\/melnykwealthmanagement\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1105\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":1147,"href":"https:\/\/advisor.wellington-altus.ca\/melnykwealthmanagement\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1105\/revisions\/1147"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/advisor.wellington-altus.ca\/melnykwealthmanagement\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/1115"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/advisor.wellington-altus.ca\/melnykwealthmanagement\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=1105"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/advisor.wellington-altus.ca\/melnykwealthmanagement\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=1105"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/advisor.wellington-altus.ca\/melnykwealthmanagement\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=1105"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}\n
<\/h4>\n
WEALTH PERSPECTIVES<\/h4>\n
Food For Thought: We\u2019ve Never Been Wealthier<\/h4>\n
![\"\"](\"https:\/\/advisor.wellington-altus.ca\/melnykwealthmanagement\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/109\/2025\/10\/Canadas-Household-Wealth-by-Generation-Q4-20242-2.jpg\")
<\/p>\n![\"The](\"https:\/\/advisor.wellington-altus.ca\/melnykwealthmanagement\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/109\/2025\/10\/The-Global-Wealth-Pyramid2.jpg\")
<\/p>\n<\/h4>\n
ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE EXUBERANCE: HOW FAR WE\u2019VE COME<\/h4>\n
At a Glance: Perspectives on the Big Tech Bull Market<\/h4>\n
\n(chart, top), fuelled by computers, the internet, mobile devices, software and the innovation they\u2019ve enabled. However, key questions remain: Will AI live up to its transformative promise, reshaping the world like the steam engine or lightbulb? And, beyond the excitement, who will emerge as the winners?<\/p>\n![\"Revenue](\"https:\/\/advisor.wellington-altus.ca\/melnykwealthmanagement\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/109\/2025\/10\/Revenue-Per-Employee-1991-2025-Select-SP-500-Sectors2.jpg\")
<\/p>\n![\"Select](\"https:\/\/advisor.wellington-altus.ca\/melnykwealthmanagement\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/109\/2025\/10\/Select-Large-Technology-Company-Acquisitions2.jpg\")
<\/p>\n
\n2. Inflation-adjusted; https:\/\/ritholtz.com\/2025\/08\/the-magnificent-493\/<\/p>\nA 547% INCREASE?<\/h4>\n
On the Rising Cost of Education<\/h4>\n
![\"Changes](\"https:\/\/advisor.wellington-altus.ca\/melnykwealthmanagement\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/109\/2025\/10\/Changes-in-Prices-of-Select-Items-1987-20251.jpg\")
<\/p>\n
\npdf; Stat Can T-1110019101 for 2025, with 3.6% (2024) & 3.8% (2025) wage growth
\nassumptions;<\/p>\n
\nIf you have a student attending post-secondary school, keeping good records is important to take full advantage of tax benefits. Two tips:<\/p>\n\n
<\/h4>\n
FEEL AS THOUGH YOU\u2019RE PAYING MORE TAX?<\/strong><\/h4>\n
In Brief: Tax Planning Before Year-End<\/strong><\/h4>\n
\n<\/strong><\/p>\n
\ndoing so before the year-end. Contribution room resets at the start of the calendar year, so withdrawals after December 31, 2025, won\u2019t restore contribution room until January 1, 2027.<\/p>\n<\/h4>\n
WARREN BUFFETT IS \u201cLEAVING THE BUILDING\u201d…<\/h4>\n
Succession Planning \u2014 What Is Your Business Worth?<\/h4>\n
\n
\n
Have You Planned for Your Business\u2019s Succession?<\/h5>\n
\n