The rhetorical tautology, “Predictions are difficult, especially about the future” may feel particularly relevant today.1 The start of 2025 has been marked by low visibility, with two events casting a cloud of uncertainty over investor sentiment: the launch of DeepSeek’s AI platform—claiming to be a significantly lower-cost model—and U.S. President Trump unleashing a trade war.

It may be surprising to recall how the world has changed in three decades. Back in 1995, the “World Wide Web” was still largely unknown. Released in the public domain two years earlier, only 3 percent of us had logged on. Inventions like the PalmPilot and Windows 95 (with no internet browser!) were considered “landmark.”2 That same year, a young Jeff Bezos sold his first book from his online bookstore, Cadabra, which he ran out of his garage.

As the Roman philosopher and statesman Lucius Annaeus Seneca once said: “Yield not to adversity; trust not to prosperity; keep before your eyes the full scope of Fortune’s power, as if she would surely do whatever is in her power to do.” This sentiment resonates as we examine the current economic landscape shaped by Donald Trump’s victory in the 2024 U.S. presidential election.

How do you view the glass — half full or half empty? This question aptly captures the dual nature of sentiment today. On one hand, our standard of living is among the highest in history, fuelled by technological advances, improved quality of life, substantial and growing wealth and increased life expectancy. On the other hand, this progress is overshadowed by rising costs of living, heavy debt burdens, declining productivity and ongoing geopolitical tensions.