Lifetime interest cost<\/strong><\/td>\n| $156,034<\/td>\n | $170,704<\/td>\n | $370,665<\/td>\n | +138%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n *National benchmark, April 2025: https:\/\/wowa.ca\/reports\/canada-housing-market. **StatCan Table 11-10-0190-01, 2022 figure (after tax) with 2.56% annual wage growth in 2023-25. ***Avg. major banks\u2019 five-year fixed rate, April 28, 2025. Historical data source: \u201c2012 vs 1984: Yes, Young Adults Do Have It Harder Today,\u201d R. Carrick. Globe & Mail, 8 May 2012, B12.<\/p>\n <\/p>\n Macroeconomic perspectives<\/span><\/p>\nA Credit Downgrade: What\u2019s in a Rating?<\/h3>\nIn May, Moody\u2019s downgraded the U.S. credit rating from the top Aaa to Aa1. This move by one of the major credit rating agencies\u2014S&P and Fitch are the other two\u2014raised the question: Does a downgrade matter?<\/p>\n First, what is a rating?<\/strong> A credit rating assesses a borrower\u2019s ability and willingness to repay debt. Unlike personal credit scores, which typically range from 300 to 900, government credit ratings are expressed as letter grades, with AAA representing the highest quality and lowest risk. A downgrade implies an increasing likelihood that a government may default on its bonds.<\/p>\nWhy does this matter?<\/strong> A downgrade generally means investors demand higher interest rates to compensate for added risk. Higher interest payments raise the cost of government borrowing. To sustain spending, more bonds must be issued\u2014further increasing the debt burden. In the U.S., interest payments have become the second-largest federal expense, surpassing defence spending in 2024.<\/p>\nWhile credit downgrades can shake investor confidence, equity markets had a muted response, briefly jittering. This was partly because the move wasn\u2019t a surprise, lagging similar downgrades by Fitch in 2023 and S&P in 2011. However, bond prices have come under pressure, sending yields higher, with the 30-year rate surpassing 5 percent in May. It comes at a time when a Republican tax bill rekindled debate about the sustainability of the U.S. deficit and spending.<\/p>\n There are likely to be ripple effects. A surge in U.S. mortgage rates may dampen consumer spending. Credit card and auto loan rates are less likely to be affected, as they tend to follow the federal funds rate more directly.<\/p>\n Why is this significant for Canada? <\/strong>Canada is among the few nations still holding the top credit rating from at least two major agencies. Fitch downgraded Canada in 2020 due to pandemic-related spending. While Canada\u2019s credit outlook remains stable, a downgrade would be unwelcome. Net debt is not out of step with other AAA-rated economies, but gross debt levels are high, and rising interest rates would raise debt-servicing costs\u2014straining future budgets. The heightened focus on global debt may help explain why Prime Minister Carney has opted to delay the release of the federal budget, usually delivered in the spring. Credit agencies continue to evaluate sovereign debt positions, and the U.S. downgrade follows a move by Moody\u2019s to downgrade France at the end of 2024.<\/p>\n <\/p>\n thinking ahead: <\/span><\/p>\nPlanning a Tax-Efficient Withdrawal Strategy<\/h3>\n\u201cA dollar\u2019s value depends on the tax trail it travels.\u201d <\/em><\/strong><\/p>\nHow and when you access your income sources can influence the taxes you pay, your eligibility for government benefits and your long-term financial health. Whether you\u2019re accumulating wealth, transitioning between career stages or planning for retirement, a tax-efficient withdrawal strategy can make a meaningful difference. Here is a brief look at common income sources and ideas to help you optimize withdrawals or manage income streams more effectively:<\/p>\n Non-Registered Accounts<\/strong> \u2014 Tax treatment depends on the type of income: interest (fully taxable), dividends (eligible for a dividend tax credit) or capital gains (50 percent is taxable). Tax-loss harvesting can offset capital gains to reduce your overall tax bill.<\/p>\nRegistered Retirement Savings Plan (RRSP) <\/strong>\u2014 Withdrawals are fully taxable and subject to withholding tax. Importantly, once funds are withdrawn, contribution room is permanently lost.<\/p>\nTFSA<\/strong> \u2014 Offers significant benefits as growth is tax free and withdrawals are not taxed. This means withdrawals do not affect income-tested government benefits. Any amount withdrawn can be recontributed in the following calendar year.<\/p>\nEmployment Income<\/strong> \u2014 If you continue to work while drawing income from other sources, consider how employment income will stack with taxable withdrawals. In high-income years, deferring benefits (if possible) or adjusting other withdrawals may help reduce the overall tax burden.<\/p>\nHere are additional considerations for those nearing retirement:<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\nCanada\/Quebec Pension Plan (CPP\/QPP) <\/strong>\u2014 CPP\/QPP benefits are taxable income. Timing matters: starting early reduces benefits by 7.2 percent per year before age 65. Delaying increases payments by 8.4 percent per year after age 65, to a maximum of 42 percent by 70. The total benefit received can impact income level and tax situation.<\/p>\nOld Age Security (OAS) <\/strong>\u2014 OAS is a taxable benefit starting at age 65. If you expect higher income later in life, here are two considerations: i) Clawback<\/em><\/strong>\u2014If net income exceeds $93,454 (2025), OAS is reduced by 15 percent of the excess. At $151,668 (ages 65 to 74), it is fully clawed back; and ii) Delaying OAS<\/em><\/strong>\u2014This increases the benefit up to 36 percent by age 70.<\/p>\nRegistered Retirement Income Fund (RRIF)<\/strong> \u2014 Mandatory RRIF withdrawals begin the year after the RRIF is opened, increasing taxable income. Some choose to begin RRSP withdrawals earlier to manage future tax exposure or reduce the risk of triggering the OAS clawback.<\/p>\nCompany Pension<\/strong> \u2014 Pension income is taxable. After age 65, the pension tax credit may help offset the tax liability. Consider timing your pension\u2019s start with other sources of income to manage your tax liability.<\/p>\nDon\u2019t Forget: Income Splitting <\/strong>\u2014 Couples can sometimes lower their combined tax burden by splitting certain types of income, especially when one has significantly higher income. For retirees, shifting eligible pension income may reduce taxes or the OAS clawback. In cases of continued employment, coordinating taxable income (particularly after 65) may yield tax savings over time. Planning together can lead to better outcomes.<\/p>\nBuilding a tax-efficient income plan involves many moving parts. Knowing how and when to draw income may help reduce taxes and preserve benefits. Alongside tax advisors, we can help develop a strategy that balances cash flow needs, tax implications and government benefits to support your long-term financial goals.<\/p>\n perspectives on market volatility<\/span><\/p>\nThe Merits of Hanging in (& Why April Felt So Bad)<\/h3>\nIt\u2019s been a wild ride this year\u2014and we\u2019re only halfway through.<\/p>\n If April\u2019s market movements felt unsettling, you weren\u2019t mistaken. While volatility is a natural part of equity markets, the magnitude of April\u2019s decline was unusual. A two-day drop of more than 10 percent in the S&P 500, seen over April 3 and 4, is rare and has occurred only four times since 1980: on Black Monday in 1987, twice during the 2008 Global Financial Crisis (GFC) and in the early days of the 2020 pandemic.<\/p>\n It\u2019s worth repeating: while it might feel tempting to exit the markets during turbulent periods, doing so can come at a cost. One reason is that some of the best-performing days often follow the worst. Exiting the markets after a decline may mean missing out on these gains, which can then make re-entering even more difficult. We saw this play out in the spring when April\u2019s sharp drop was followed by a swift recovery in May.<\/p>\n While markets don\u2019t always rebound immediately, time has a powerful way of smoothing even the sharpest declines. In the year following the worst two-day drops, the S&P 500 posted an average gain of 36.3 percent. Similarly, after the largest one-day declines in the S&P\/TSX, the average one-year forward return was +34.6 percent.<\/p>\n One of the benefits of navigating through challenging markets like the GFC and the pandemic is that we have accumulated invaluable experience. Time and again, we are reminded that you can\u2019t keep the markets\u2014or the economy\u2014down for long.<\/p>\n Even the darkest nights eventually give way to dawn\u2014and patience remains one of an investor\u2019s great virtues.<\/p>\n \n- BMO Capital Markets, U.S. Strategy Report<\/em>, April 6, 2025. 2. BMO Capital Markets, Canadian Strategy Report<\/em>, April 6, 2025. Calculations based on BMO Capital Markets Investment Strategy Group calculations, Factset, Compustat, IBES.<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n
<\/p>\n S&P 500 Two-Day Declines & One-Year Forward Return1<\/sup><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\nDate<\/strong><\/td>\nDecline<\/strong><\/td>\n1-Yr. Forward Return<\/strong><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n\n| 10\/19\/1987<\/td>\n | -24.6%<\/td>\n | +23%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n | \n| 3\/12\/2020<\/td>\n | -13.9%<\/td>\n | +59%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n | \n| 11\/20\/2008<\/td>\n | -12.4%<\/td>\n | +45%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n | \n| 11\/6\/2008<\/td>\n | -10.0%<\/td>\n | +18%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n | \nAverage<\/strong><\/td>\n-15.2%<\/strong><\/td>\n| +36.3%<\/strong><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n <\/p>\n Largest S&P\/TSX One-Day Declines & One-Year Forward Return2<\/sup><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\nDate<\/strong><\/td>\nDecline<\/strong><\/td>\n1-Yr. Forward Return<\/strong><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n\n| 3\/12\/2020<\/td>\n | -12.3%<\/td>\n | +51%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n | \n| 10\/19\/1987<\/td>\n | -11.3%<\/td>\n | +6%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n | \n| 3\/9\/2020<\/td>\n | -10.3%<\/td>\n | +27%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n | \n| 3\/16\/2020<\/td>\n | -9.9%<\/td>\n | +53%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n | \n| 12\/1\/2008<\/td>\n | -9.3%<\/td>\n | +36%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n | \nAverage<\/strong><\/td>\n-10.6%<\/strong><\/td>\n| +34.6%<\/strong><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n <\/p>\n A New Trade Order?<\/h3>\nHow Tariffs Are Reshaping Global Dynamics<\/h3>\nThe global trade landscape was thrown into flux when the U.S. introduced a sweeping wave of tariffs on April\u2019s \u201cLiberation Day,\u201d aimed at reshaping its economic relationships. While the situation continues to evolve, tariffs remain at the centre of global attention. Here\u2019s a brief look at how they are reshaping trade dynamics\u2014and what it could mean going forward.<\/p>\n First, What Is a Tariff?<\/strong><\/p>\nA tariff is a duty (or tax) applied to goods brought into a country, calculated as a percentage of the product\u2019s value. The rate often depends on two factors: i) Product country of origin (where it\u2019s from); and ii) Type of product.<\/p>\n Tariffs are generally designed to protect domestic industries by reducing the competitive advantage that foreign producers might have\u2014whether due to cheaper labor, lower production costs, more lenient environmental regulations or financial support from foreign governments. These tariffs are paid by the importer when goods enter the country, with the funds collected on behalf of the government of the importing country.<\/p>\n What Is the Rationale Behind Broad-Based Tariffs?<\/strong><\/p>\nAlthough the current U.S. administration hasn\u2019t officially outlined its reasoning, President Trump has long advocated for tariffs as a strategic tool. They appear to be aimed at a range of objectives: shrinking the trade deficit by boosting exports and curbing imports, encouraging domestic manufacturing and onshoring, reinforcing national supply chain security, fighting unfair trade practices, increasing federal revenue and applying pressure on trading partners to negotiate better terms.<\/p>\n The Potential Effects: Economic and Market Impacts<\/strong><\/p>\nTariffs have heightened economic uncertainty, due to a range of potential effects, such as:<\/p>\n Pricing pressures for consumers <\/strong>\u2014 Since tariffs are essentially import taxes, U.S. businesses bringing in foreign goods are on the hook for the added cost. More often than not, these additional costs get passed down to consumers. That means higher prices, feeding into inflation and potentially softening purchasing power.<\/p>\nDisrupted trade and supply chains <\/strong>\u2014 Businesses thrive on predictability, but evolving tariff measures introduce uncertainty. Many firms now struggle to make long-term decisions on production, investment and supplier relationships. Tariffs can also impact trade volumes. As a recent example, in April amid the temporary but sharp 135 percent tariff on Chinese imports, there was a 21 percent year-over-year drop in Chinese outbound shipments to the U.S.1<\/sup><\/p>\nDownward pressure on company profits<\/strong> \u2014 Higher input costs, potentially lower demand and logistical complications can impact profit margins for affected companies. This can lead to cost cutting, including layoffs\u2014especially in industries heavily reliant on international trade.<\/p>\nBroader economic drag <\/strong>\u2014 Collectively, all of these dynamics weigh on economic growth. In the U.S., consumer spending accounts for roughly 68 percent of U.S. GDP, so the combination of rising prices, rising unemployment and general uncertainty could weigh on economic growth.<\/p>\nRethinking Global Trade Norms<\/strong><\/p>\nFor decades, global trade has leaned on the principle of \u201ccomparative advantage\u201d\u2014the idea that countries should focus on producing goods they can make most efficiently. That approach has kept prices lower\u2014and supported broad-based global economic growth. As renowned investor Howard Marks recently noted: \u201cGlobalization has contributed to a rising economic tide that has lifted all boats.\u201d2<\/sup><\/em><\/p>\nCritics of the new tariff strategy argue that shifting away from globalization isn\u2019t so simple. For example, building out domestic manufacturing requires massive investments in infrastructure, which also take time. Plus, U.S. companies often can\u2019t match the low labor costs found overseas. According to one estimate, producing an item like an iPhone on U.S. soil could cost around US$3,500.3<\/sup> While developing nations have benefitted from globalization, so have countries like the U.S. and Canada, especially through cheaper consumer goods.<\/p>\nWhat Lies Ahead?<\/strong><\/p>\nAt the time of writing, the situation continues to evolve\u2014from legal challenges to ongoing negotiations between the U.S. and various countries. As such, trade policy is likely to remain a market driver over the near term. Yet market disruptions of one sort or another are not uncommon throughout history, and free-market economies have shown time and again that they can adapt and progress. There\u2019s no reason to believe this period will be any different.<\/p>\n \n- https:\/\/www.cnbc.com\/2025\/05\/09\/chinas-exports-jump-us-tariffs-imports-tumble.html; 2. https:\/\/www.oaktreecapital.com\/insights\/memo\/nobody-knows-yet-again; 3. https:\/\/www.cnbc.com\/2025\/04\/11\/heres-how-much-a-made-in-the-usa-iphone-would-cost.html#<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n
<\/p>\n <\/p>\n <\/p>\n <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" It has been said that \u201cthere are decades where nothing seems to happen, and there are weeks where decades happen.\u201d The sweeping global tariffs, announced by the U.S. on April\u2019s \u201cLiberation Day,\u201d caught the world off guard\u2014disrupting longheld norms in global trade and world order.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":149,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_oasis_is_in_workflow":0,"_oasis_original":0,"_oasis_task_priority":"","_exactmetrics_skip_tracking":false,"_exactmetrics_sitenote_active":false,"_exactmetrics_sitenote_note":"","_exactmetrics_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[14],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-1670","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-investment-insights"],"yoast_head":"\n QUARTERLY INVESTMENT INSIGHT - SUMMER 2025 - The Morcom Wealth Management<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/advisor.wellington-altus.ca\/morcom\/2025\/07\/01\/quarterly-investment-insight-summer-2025\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"QUARTERLY INVESTMENT INSIGHT - SUMMER 2025 - The Morcom Wealth Management\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"It has been said that \u201cthere are decades where nothing seems to happen, and there are weeks where decades happen.\u201d The sweeping global tariffs, announced by the U.S. on April\u2019s \u201cLiberation Day,\u201d caught the world off guard\u2014disrupting longheld norms in global trade and world order.\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" 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| | | | | | | | | | | | | ![\"Housing](\"https:\/\/advisor.wellington-altus.ca\/morcom\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/251\/2025\/12\/Housing-prices-G7.png\")
<\/p>\n