Insights

News and Opinions:

  • Often, a client will ask what I think of what so and so said on the news. This is natural and understandable.
  • Like when Bill Ackman cried on TV and used the term “Hell is coming” near the lows in 2020, as he was buying stock.
  • Or if Goldman says commodities are going up 50% this year because of this or that. Frankly, odds are that if Goldman says it’s going to go up, they are probably shorting it. That’s how useful following opinion pieces are. They get into your psyche and infect your decision making process, when the reality is that most media opinion pieces are there to try to sell advertising. In Goldman’s case, it’s likely because they are trying to sell you something they want to get rid of. It’s a natural part of the market process and it needs to be understood and managed.
  • Even the legend Paul Tudor Jones was in the news recently touting inflation as the only position to have on right now. The thing is, he is also well known for holding positions extremely loosely, and will turn around his whole book in a very short period. By the time his view is in the news, he could be doing the opposite, such is his strategy, and he’s legitimately good at it.
  • Investors need to know their own time frames.
  • Jim Cramer mind you, though told to be a successful hedge fund manager in a previous life, is on TV to sell advertising. That’s ok, but we need to realize that fact. I do not begrudge him for it.
  • Below is a chart of West Texas Crude with comments made by Jim Cramer re: the Oil Price since the lows of 2020.
  • This is why investors MUST have a decision making process that does NOT in any way shape or form incorporate headlines, or what other people are “saying”.
  • In our view, the best process is to turn off the TV, ignore headlines, study the fundamental case for an investment and systematically follow price while managing risk.

 

Source: Aron S. Chopra, CFA, CMT

 

 

 

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The opinions contained herein are the opinions of the author and readers should not assume they reflect the opinions or recommendations of Wellington-Altus Private Wealth. Assumptions, opinions and information constitute the author’s judgement as of the date this material and subject to change without notice. We do not warrant the completeness or accuracy of this material, and it should not be relied upon as such. Before acting on any recommendation, you should consider whether it is suitable for your particular circumstances and, if necessary, seek professional advice. Graphs and charts are used for illustrative purposes only and do not reflect future values or future performance of any investment. The information does not provide financial, legal, tax or investment advice. Particular investment, tax, or trading strategies should be evaluated relative to each individual’s objectives and risk tolerance. All third party products and services referred to or advertised in this presentation are sold by the company or organization named. While these products or services may serve as valuable aids to the independent investor, WAPW does not specifically endorse any of these products or services. The third party products and services referred to, or advertised in this presentation, are available as a convenience to its customers only, and WAPW is not liable for any claims, losses or damages however arising out of any purchase or use of third party products or services. All insurance products and services are offered by life licensed advisors of Wellington-Altus. Wellington-Altus Private Wealth Inc. is a member of the Canadian Investor Protection Fund and the Investment Industry Regulatory Organization of Canada. All trademarks are the property of their respective owners.