{"id":927,"date":"2025-03-14T13:47:12","date_gmt":"2025-03-14T13:47:12","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/advisor.wellington-altus.ca\/simonharry\/?p=927"},"modified":"2025-03-14T13:48:30","modified_gmt":"2025-03-14T13:48:30","slug":"stimulus-crisis-debt-problem-no-one-wanted-to-solve","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/advisor.wellington-altus.ca\/simonharry\/2025\/03\/14\/stimulus-crisis-debt-problem-no-one-wanted-to-solve\/","title":{"rendered":"From Stimulus to Crisis: The Debt Problem No One Wanted to Solve"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><img fetchpriority=\"high\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-930\" src=\"https:\/\/advisor.wellington-altus.ca\/simonharry\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/220\/2025\/03\/pexels-printexstar-11624829-1024x683.jpg\" alt=\"US debt\" width=\"1024\" height=\"683\" srcset=\"https:\/\/advisor.wellington-altus.ca\/simonharry\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/220\/2025\/03\/pexels-printexstar-11624829-1024x683.jpg 1024w, https:\/\/advisor.wellington-altus.ca\/simonharry\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/220\/2025\/03\/pexels-printexstar-11624829-300x200.jpg 300w, https:\/\/advisor.wellington-altus.ca\/simonharry\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/220\/2025\/03\/pexels-printexstar-11624829-768x512.jpg 768w, https:\/\/advisor.wellington-altus.ca\/simonharry\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/220\/2025\/03\/pexels-printexstar-11624829-1536x1024.jpg 1536w, https:\/\/advisor.wellington-altus.ca\/simonharry\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/220\/2025\/03\/pexels-printexstar-11624829.jpg 1920w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/>U.S.-Canada relations haven\u2019t been this strained in my lifetime. Like everyone else, I\u2019m at the grocery store on the weekend checking labels, looking for Canadian products.<\/p>\n<p>I\u2019m not a fan of the chaos spinning out of the U.S. administration\u2019s trade negotiations. However, when it comes to out-of-control government spending and debt, this is an issue that Western governments around the world need to address, especially now that the U.S. has first-mover advantage on addressing the issues that come from wasteful government spending.<\/p>\n<p>Please note that this is not a comment on the U.S. government\u2019s approach to the problem, this is a comment about the problem and the seriousness of the need to address it.<\/p>\n<p>I\u2019ve spent my career watching various money printing cycles play out, and if there\u2019s one thing that helps put it into perspective, it\u2019s satire.<\/p>\n<p><strong>A Reminder From 2011<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Back in 2011, I had been advising people for more than a decade. The U.S. government had just finished doubling the money supply to bail out the nation\u2019s banks and, by extension, almost anything listed on the stock market. The flood of capital created massive tailwinds for financial services professionals and their clients.<\/p>\n<p>As the debt ceiling was being debated, a colleague introduced me to a hilarious but painfully accurate video: <a href=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/watch?v=EoS52fVtVQM\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Raise the Debt Ceiling Rap<\/a> by political-economic satirist Remy Munasifi.<\/p>\n<p>This was three years after the financial crisis, when markets were still fragile, but those of us paying attention knew how the game worked\u2014massive government stimulus was making a lot of people, especially in finance, very wealthy.<\/p>\n<p>In his rap, Remy summed it up perfectly:<\/p>\n<p><em>&#8220;Fourteen trillion in debt but yo we ain&#8217;t got no qualms<br \/>\nDroppin\u2019 $100 bills and billion-dollar bonds,<br \/>\nSpending money we don\u2019t have, that\u2019s the name of the game<br \/>\nThey call me cumulo nimbus because you KNOW I make it rain.&#8221;<\/em><\/p>\n<p>A few verses later came his real message:<\/p>\n<p><em>&#8220;We&#8217;re gonna default if we follow this road!<br \/>\nI should have thought of this 14 trillion dollars ago!&#8221;<\/em><\/p>\n<p>It was funny. It was clever. We laughed at the imagery of bankers buying cars, yachts, dancing at clubs and playing tennis.<\/p>\n<p>Fast forward ten years, and nothing had changed\u2014except for the numbers.<\/p>\n<p><strong>2021: Same Problem, Bigger Numbers<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>By 2021, the debt crisis hadn\u2019t been solved\u2014it had doubled. Remy\u2019s updated rap written at the time was aptly titled <a href=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/watch?v=rx5mE9XPcWw\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Raise the Debt Ceiling Rap (Again)<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p>This time, the lyrics had changed, but the message hadn\u2019t:<\/p>\n<p><em>&#8220;Thirty trillion in debt and yo, we&#8217;re back again,<br \/>\nStill printing lots of money, telling all of your friends,<br \/>\nI told you this would happen, but you were a doubting Thomas,<br \/>\nThirty is the last trillion I&#8217;ll ever need\u2014I swear, I promise.&#8221;<\/em><\/p>\n<p>Sound familiar?<\/p>\n<p>For years, both Republicans and Democrats have taken the same approach:<br \/>\n\u2022 Kick the can down the road.<br \/>\n\u2022 Raise the debt ceiling.<br \/>\n\u2022 Pretend the problem isn\u2019t urgent.<\/p>\n<p>And we laughed at it. We made memes and shared satirical songs. Bankers and their clients made money while those in the know shook our heads at the absurdity of it all. But laughing at the problem can be a double-edged sword. Humour makes the problem seem distant, like an ongoing joke rather than a crisis. And when something becomes a joke, people become dismissive and stop taking it seriously.<\/p>\n<p>We laugh at the ballooning debt, and because we laugh at it, we don\u2019t demand real solutions. It has, in some ways, permitted us to keep delaying action\u2014because after all, if we\u2019re still laughing, it must not be that bad, right?<\/p>\n<p>It is that bad. In a <a href=\"https:\/\/www.cnbc.com\/2025\/03\/12\/ray-dalio-warns-growing-us-debt-will-lead-to-shocking-developments.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">recent interview<\/a> with CNBC, the founder of the hedge fund Bridgewater, Ray Dalio, described a \u201cvery severe supply-demand problem\u201d when it comes to U.S. debt. \u201d[The U.S. has] to sell a quantity of debt that the world is not going to want to buy,\u201d he said, calling it a problem of \u201cparamount importance.\u201d<\/p>\n<p><strong>Enter the Chainsaw<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>These two videos\u2014hilarious as they are\u2014make one thing clear: the debt problem isn\u2019t just an economic issue, it\u2019s a cultural one. We\u2019ve normalized it, joked about it, and in doing so, made it easier to ignore.<\/p>\n<p>But now, someone is actually doing something about it\u2014and it\u2019s not pretty.<\/p>\n<p>Elon Musk has gone from cutting bloat at X\/Twitter to helping lead a broader charge against perceived government waste. Musk is now actively involved in U.S. government spending reform, bringing the same \u201ccut to the bone\u201d mentality he applied at his companies to Washington.<\/p>\n<p>He has called out massive inefficiencies in government contracts, defense spending, and bureaucratic waste. While politicians stall, Musk has taken action.<\/p>\n<p>This isn\u2019t about whether you like Musk or not\u2014it\u2019s about the fact that someone is finally addressing the elephant in the room.<\/p>\n<p><strong>The Reality Check Canada Needs<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>If you\u2019re still skeptical about the urgency of this issue, consider this:<\/p>\n<p>\u2022 As of today, U.S. national debt sits at $36.22 trillion and counting. ($6 trillion or 20% higher than 2021)<br \/>\n\u2022 Interest payments on the debt now exceed military spending.<br \/>\n\u2022 Canada is not far behind, with government spending and future obligations at record highs and no clear plan to rein it in.<\/p>\n<p>For years, we in the financial industry have known this can\u2019t continue forever. But the danger isn\u2019t just in the debt itself\u2014it\u2019s in how we\u2019ve learned to laugh at it rather than demand action.<\/p>\n<p>Now, it looks like the U.S. is taking steps to correct course\u2014whether through Trump, Musk, or sheer economic necessity. And it\u2019s time that Canada gets the memo.<\/p>\n<p>The addiction to debt-funded spending is like a drug\u2014it feels good in the moment, but over time, it weakens the entire system.<\/p>\n<p>If you want to criticize Trump, I get it\u2014I have issues with many of his policies, politics and his approach as well. But know that the problem of unchecked government spending, worsening year in and year out, is finally getting addressed.<\/p>\n<p>Canada needs to pay attention before we find ourselves in the same mess\u2014except without the economic engine or first-mover advantage the U.S. enjoys.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>U.S.-Canada relations haven\u2019t been this strained in my lifetime. Like everyone else, I\u2019m at the grocery store on the weekend checking labels, looking for Canadian products. I\u2019m not a fan of the chaos spinning out of the U.S. administration\u2019s trade negotiations. However, when it comes to out-of-control government spending and debt, this is an issue [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":232,"featured_media":930,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"_oasis_is_in_workflow":0,"_oasis_original":0,"_oasis_task_priority":"","_exactmetrics_skip_tracking":false,"_exactmetrics_sitenote_active":false,"_exactmetrics_sitenote_note":"","_exactmetrics_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[18,16,17],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-927","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-investing","category-markets","category-opinion"],"acf":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/advisor.wellington-altus.ca\/simonharry\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/927","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/advisor.wellington-altus.ca\/simonharry\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/advisor.wellington-altus.ca\/simonharry\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/advisor.wellington-altus.ca\/simonharry\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/232"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/advisor.wellington-altus.ca\/simonharry\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=927"}],"version-history":[{"count":5,"href":"https:\/\/advisor.wellington-altus.ca\/simonharry\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/927\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":933,"href":"https:\/\/advisor.wellington-altus.ca\/simonharry\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/927\/revisions\/933"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/advisor.wellington-altus.ca\/simonharry\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/930"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/advisor.wellington-altus.ca\/simonharry\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=927"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/advisor.wellington-altus.ca\/simonharry\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=927"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/advisor.wellington-altus.ca\/simonharry\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=927"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}