Q2 2025 Portfolio Commentary

The second quarter of 2025 proved to be one of the more volatile in recent memory, marked by swift sell-offs, strong recoveries, and geopolitical shocks. Through it all, our disciplined, active approach has once again demonstrated its value, allowing us to protect capital, capitalize on dislocations, and enhance overall portfolio performance.

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Quarter in Review

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April began with sharp market turbulence following President Donald Trump’s declaration of “Liberation Day”—a politically charged response to trade tensions with Canada and Mexico. The announcement triggered a global equity market correction exceeding 10%, compounding pressure from the Q1 trade war.

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Thanks to our defensive positioning, portfolios were insulated from much of this downside. This provided us with the opportunity to trim some of those protective holdings and purchase high-quality assets at a discount—a strategy that proved timely as markets quickly rebounded.

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By early May, equity markets had recovered to pre-selloff levels and continued their rally into June, reaching new all-time highs by quarter-end.

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Tactical Moves and Highlights

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Energy Exposure:  Energy played a significant role in both portfolio protection and profit generation this quarter. Following U.S. military action in Iran and broader Middle East escalation, energy prices surged. Our energy exposure was actively managed—added to in early March, trimmed at month-end, re-added in April, and partially exited in late June—monetizing volatility and providing meaningful returns.

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Commodity Adjustments:  We refined our broader commodity allocation by reducing energy and increasing exposure to base and precious metals, including gold and critical minerals tied to industrial and military use.  Gold, in particular, was introduced to bolster inflation resilience and as a hedge against rapid interest rate reductions globally.

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Fixed Income:  Performance was muted as a portion of our holdings are USD-denominated, and the U.S. dollar weakened by nearly 5% vs. the Canadian dollar in Q2—largely due to the market’s reaction to U.S. trade and fiscal policy.  That said, our fixed income portfolio remains focused on high-quality, investment-grade and government debt, emphasizing consistency and capital preservation in uncertain markets.

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Ongoing Rebalancing & Private Markets:  Our active rebalancing across both public and private investments continues to be a major contributor to performance.  Considering future actions, we have:

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Looking Ahead

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We’re encouraged by our results year-to-date. Our goal remains clear: build resilient portfolios that thrive amid erratic trade and fiscal policy, while retaining exposure to long-term growth and maintaining key hedges against crisis scenarios.

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As always, we are here to support you through uncertain times. We recognize the immense trust you place in us, and we’re grateful for it.

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If you know a friend, family member, or colleague who could benefit from the same level of care, guidance, and discipline, we would be honoured by your introduction.

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Lastly, if you haven’t yet taken full advantage of our comprehensive financial planning services, now is an excellent time to review your overall strategy to ensure all elements—investments, taxes, estate planning, and more—are working together to support your goals.

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Sincerely,

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The Team at Stonehaven Private Counsel
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About the Authors
This commentary was prepared by Jeff Sproul, PFP®, CIM®, Victor Kuntzevitsky, CFA, CAIA, and Grant Dawes, CIM®, CFP®, TEP of Stonehaven Private Counsel at Wellington-Altus Private Counsel. Together, they provide portfolio management and wealth planning guidance to business owners, executives, affluent families, retirees, and multi-generational wealth clients. Learn more about their experience, credentials, and areas of expertise and explore how Stonehaven supports different client needs through its work with business owners, retirees, professionals, families, and next-generation wealth clients.

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Stonehaven in the News

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“While the overall TSX is performing strongly, we’re certainly seeing a divergence between sectors,” said Victor Kuntzevitsky, a portfolio manager at Stonehaven, Wellington-Altus Private Counsel. TSX notches record high as metal mining shares climb | Reuters

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“As companies continue to grapple with the implications of tariffs and recalibrate their inventory strategies, alongside the inclination to delay capital expenditures, profit margins will likely face pressure,” said Victor Kuntzevitsky, a portfolio manager at Stonehaven Private Counsel, Wellington-Altus. TSX’s gains set to slow as trade war hits Canada’s economy | Reuters

The material contained herein has been provided for information purposes only.  The information has been drawn from sources believed to be reliable.  Graphs, charts and other numbers are used for illustrative purposes only and do not reflect future values or future performance of any investment.  The information does not provide financial, legal, tax or investment advice.  Particular investment, tax, or trading strategies should be evaluated relative to each individual’s objectives and risk tolerance.  This does not constitute a recommendation or solicitation to buy or sell securities of any kind. Market conditions may change which may impact the information contained in this document.  Wellington-Altus Private Counsel  (WAPC) does not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of the information contained herein, nor does WAPC assume any liability for any loss that may result from the reliance by any person upon any such information or opinions.  Before acting on any of the above, please contact your financial advisor.