Navigating Change with Discipline and Flexibility

The past several months have reinforced the value of thoughtful, active portfolio management in an increasingly complex market environment.

Investors continue to navigate elevated interest rates, shifting trade relationships, geopolitical instability, and questions around long-term fiscal sustainability. Yet these environments often create the most compelling opportunities. Rather than positioning portfolios around a single economic outcome, our focus remains on identifying attractive risk-adjusted opportunities, managing risk carefully, and maintaining the flexibility to adapt as conditions evolve.

Three themes are currently shaping our thinking.

 

Higher Interest Rates Are Reshaping Markets

Markets increasingly appear to be accepting that interest rates may remain higher for longer than many investors previously expected.

This has created a more selective investment environment. Companies with strong cash flows, resilient balance sheets, and attractive valuations have generally been rewarded, while more speculative areas of the market have faced greater scrutiny. Investors are placing a premium on quality, income generation, and financial strength.

Within fixed income, we continue to favour areas that provide meaningful income while limiting sensitivity to rising long-term rates. Within equities, we remain focused on high-quality businesses while maintaining exposure to a broad range of return drivers.

At the same time, we are increasingly interested in selectively extending duration. While we are not making a near-term call on the direction of interest rates, today’s yields provide a much more attractive starting point for long-term investors than those available just a few years ago.

 

Energy Markets: A Short-Term Opportunity, Not a Long-Term Destination

Energy remains one of the most important variables influencing the global economy, with various oil benchmarks up more than 50% so far in 2026.

In the near term, geopolitical risks remain elevated. Further instability in the Middle East could disrupt energy markets, place upward pressure on oil prices, and contribute to broader market volatility. Given our current positioning, we would expect to benefit from such an environment.

However, our longer-term outlook for energy is meaningfully different.

Recent developments in Venezuela have the potential to unlock significant investment in one of the world’s largest hydrocarbon reserves. While meaningful production increases would take time, Venezuela could become a more important contributor to global energy supply over the coming years. Similarly, any eventual resolution of the Russia-Ukraine conflict would likely improve global commodity flows and reduce some of the geopolitical risk premium embedded in energy prices today.

Taken together, these developments suggest that current supply constraints may prove temporary rather than permanent.

For that reason, we view strength in energy prices as an opportunity to be managed, not a destination. If geopolitical events drive oil prices materially higher, we would not hesitate to realize gains and reallocate capital to areas with more compelling long-term return potential.

Importantly, abundant and affordable energy would be highly stimulative for the broader economy. Energy is a critical input cost across transportation, manufacturing, agriculture, and consumer activity. Lower energy costs would help ease inflationary pressures, support economic growth, and create conditions that could allow interest rates to move lower over time.

As a result, we are increasingly interested in extending duration within fixed income portfolios where we believe investors are adequately compensated for interest-rate risk.

If inflation continues to moderate over the coming years, today’s yields may prove attractive in hindsight.

 

Canada’s Economic Transition Deserves Attention

The ongoing trade dispute between Canada and the United States has introduced a new layer of uncertainty for Canadian investors.

Regardless of how current negotiations unfold, recent events highlight a broader lesson: concentration creates vulnerability. Whether that concentration involves a country’s dependence on a single trading partner or an investor’s reliance on a narrow set of assets, adaptability is essential.

Canada’s efforts to strengthen economic relationships beyond North America could create meaningful opportunities over the coming years, particularly in infrastructure, critical minerals, energy, advanced manufacturing, and industrial development. While these transitions are rarely seamless, they may ultimately leave the Canadian economy more diversified and resilient.

We continue to monitor these developments closely as we evaluate opportunities across both domestic and international markets.

 

Portfolio Activity

 

One of our most important recent decisions was to rebalance our digital asset exposure.

Following a significant recovery in the asset class, including over a +20% gain in August, we reduced approximately 25% of the position. This locked in meaningful gains while lowering overall portfolio concentration.

Capital was redeployed across other areas of the portfolio, including Berkshire Hathaway and several existing positions where we believe long-term risk-adjusted return prospects remain attractive.

Importantly, this was not a change in our long-term view on digital assets. We continue to believe the asset class offers compelling opportunities and can play an important role within portfolios. However, successful investing requires discipline. When positions perform exceptionally well, part of our responsibility is to harvest gains and ensure that no single investment becomes too influential.

Some of the most valuable investment decisions are not about what we buy, but what we choose to trim.

 

Looking Ahead

The months ahead will likely be shaped by several important questions.

How restrictive will monetary policy need to remain? Will energy markets experience further disruption before additional supply comes online? How will global trade relationships continue to evolve?

These developments will undoubtedly create periods of volatility. They should also create opportunity.

Our objective remains unchanged: to build portfolios that can participate in long-term growth opportunities while carefully managing risk, maintaining flexibility, and acting decisively when markets present opportunities.

Our goal is not to fall in love with any asset class or investment theme. Our goal is to own what is likely to work today while remaining prepared for what may work tomorrow.

As always, thank you for your continued trust and confidence.

 

Sincerely,

 

The Team at Stonehaven Private Counsel

 

About the Authors
This commentary was prepared by Jeff Sproul, PFP®, CIM®, Victor Kuntzevitsky, CFA, CAIA, and Grant Dawes, CIM®, CFP®, TEP of Stonehaven Private Counsel at Wellington-Altus Private Counsel. Together, they provide portfolio management and wealth planning guidance to business owners, executives, affluent families, retirees, and multi-generational wealth clients. Learn more about their experience, credentials, and areas of expertise and explore how Stonehaven supports different client needs through its work with business owners, retirees, professionals, families, and next-generation wealth clients.

 

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