{"id":795,"date":"2026-03-31T09:00:03","date_gmt":"2026-03-31T09:00:03","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/advisor.wellington-altus.ca\/stonehavenprivatecounsel\/?p=795"},"modified":"2026-09-04T17:19:04","modified_gmt":"2026-09-04T17:19:04","slug":"q1-2026-portfolio-commentary","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/advisor.wellington-altus.ca\/stonehavenprivatecounsel\/q1-2026-portfolio-commentary\/","title":{"rendered":"Q1 2026 Portfolio Commentary"},"content":{"rendered":"

This past quarter reminded us that markets can change direction quickly. When headlines shift and uncertainty rises, a steady process matters. Our focus remains the same: build diversified portfolios, manage risk carefully, and act when opportunities appear.<\/p>\n

\u00a0.<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

What happened in markets<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n

Markets started the year on a strong note. In January and February, equities moved higher, and leadership broadened beyond the large technology names. Areas tied to real assets did well, including energy and materials (such as gold and copper), along with parts of emerging markets.<\/p>\n

\u00a0.<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

In March, sentiment changed. Concerns around military developments in the Middle East increased worries about wider regional spillover in the Gulf. Investors began to focus on the risk of energy supply disruption, including the possibility of the Strait of Hormuz being affected. Oil prices rose sharply, and inflation concerns returned.<\/p>\n

\u00a0.<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

As inflation fears increased, investors also changed their view on interest rates. Instead of expecting rate cuts, markets began pricing in a more difficult environment \u2014\u00a0requiring interest rates to hold steady and possible increases<\/span><\/strong>. This uncertainty led to weaker equity markets to finish the quarter.<\/p>\n

\u00a0.<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

For context, global equities declined overall. The iShares MSCI World Index ETF (XWD.TO) was down\u00a01.41%<\/span><\/strong>\u00a0in Q1 2026.<\/p>\n

\u00a0.<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

What we did in your portfolio<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n

We are pleased with how the portfolio was positioned during this volatility.\u00a0Our equity portion was slightly up for the same period<\/span><\/strong>, which helped protect capital during the drawdown.<\/p>\n

\u00a0.<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

A few key actions and contributors:<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n

1) Energy: disciplined gains in a volatile environment<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n

Our energy exposure is through\u00a0Ninepoint<\/span> Energy, managed by Eric Nuttall<\/span><\/strong>. This position benefited from what we believe has been a disconnect between market pricing and real\u2011world risks around supply. Markets have generally assumed disruptions will be brief. We believe the situation may take longer to resolve. That said, we also recognize the risk of a sudden agreement that could quickly pull oil prices (and energy stocks) lower. Because of that, we have been\u00a0realizing gains when appropriate<\/span><\/strong>\u00a0and will continue to manage the position actively and prudently.<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n

2) Commodities and mining: taking profits, then re<\/span>\u2011entering at better levels<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n

We were also active in\u00a0Dynamic Active Mining Opportunities ETF (DXMO.TO)<\/span><\/strong>, which includes exposure to gold, copper, uranium, and other commodities. On\u00a0January 28, 2026<\/span><\/strong>, we reduced exposure after a very sharp run\u2011up, with the strategy up more than\u00a024% year<\/span>\u2011to<\/span>\u2011date<\/span><\/strong>\u00a0at the time. This proved timely as enthusiasm cooled and the sector pulled back. Gold weakened as expectations for higher interest rates increased (higher rates often reduce the appeal of gold). Later in the quarter, we\u00a0bought back part of the position at prices roughly 25% lower<\/span><\/strong>, improving the long\u2011term risk\u2011reward and avoiding a meaningful portion of the decline.<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n

3) Currency: the U.S. dollar strengthened<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n

Another theme this quarter was a stronger U.S. dollar as investors sought safety. While the Canadian dollar has support at times from higher oil prices, the U.S. dollar strengthened broadly, including versus the Canadian dollar. Most clients watch the rate as\u00a0CAD\/USD<\/span><\/strong>, and the Canadian dollar moved toward\u00a0about US$0.71<\/span><\/strong>. We think the U.S. dollar could remain firm if oil prices cool from recent highs and Canada\u2019s economic momentum remains limited. We also believe the market may be too optimistic about additional rate increases in Canada. At the same time, currency markets can overreact. If we see a good opportunity, we are prepared to\u00a0hedge foreign<\/span>\u2011currency exposure<\/span><\/strong>\u00a0to reduce risk.<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n

4) Fixed income: using weakness to improve long<\/span>\u2011term opportunity<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n

In bonds, our view remains that interest rates are\u00a0unlikely to rise as much as markets have recently priced in<\/span><\/strong>. As bond prices fell during the quarter, our actively managed fixed\u2011income solutions used that weakness to selectively add to areas with improved value \u2014 including\u00a0longer<\/span>\u2011term bonds<\/span><\/strong>\u00a0and carefully chosen\u00a0credit exposure<\/span><\/strong>. We are monitoring these managers closely to ensure the portfolio remains balanced and resilient.<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n

Why activity matters (and how we manage risk)<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n

Volatility this quarter created more opportunities \u2014 and required more decisions. We made\u00a0several rebalances and profit<\/span>\u2011taking moves<\/span><\/strong>\u00a0across the portfolio as conditions changed quickly. A key point is that many parts of the portfolio are actively managed and there is active decision\u2011making within active solutions. This matters most when markets move fast.<\/p>\n

\u00a0.<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

In addition, we continue to invest heavily in institutional\u2011quality risk management. During the quarter, we ran stress tests and scenario analysis using\u00a0BlackRock\u2019s Aladdin\u00ae risk management platform<\/span><\/strong>. These tools help us understand how the portfolio might behave during different types of market shocks. They are not forecasts. They are a way to spot hidden risks, understand how holdings may move together, and support better rebalancing and sizing decisions \u2014 especially during uncertain periods. This type of process is typically used by large institutions and is a meaningful part of the value we provide.<\/p>\n

\u00a0.<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

Looking ahead<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n

We remain cautious but constructive. Markets often recover a portion of sharp declines once uncertainty settles. Given the portfolio\u2019s relative resilience, we are evaluating ways to\u00a0increase equity exposure gradually<\/span><\/strong>\u00a0so we can participate more fully if markets improve, while still respecting risk.<\/p>\n

\u00a0.<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

As always, we will stay disciplined, keep risk at the centre of decisions, and remain ready to adjust as conditions evolve.<\/p>\n

\u00a0.<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

Thank you for your continued trust. If you know of family members, colleagues, or friends who might benefit from the same disciplined and actively managed approach, we would be happy to be a resource and help in any way.<\/p>\n

\u00a0.<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

Sincerely,<\/p>\n

\u00a0.<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

The Team at Stonehaven Private Counsel<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

About the Authors<\/strong>
\nThis commentary was prepared by Jeff Sproul, PFP\u00ae, CIM\u00ae<\/strong>, Victor Kuntzevitsky, CFA, CAIA<\/strong>, and Grant Dawes, CIM\u00ae, CFP\u00ae, TEP<\/strong> of Stonehaven Private Counsel at Wellington-Altus Private Counsel. Together, they provide portfolio management and wealth planning guidance to business owners, executives, affluent families, retirees, and multi-generational wealth clients<\/strong>. Learn more<\/a> about their experience, credentials, and areas of expertise and explore how Stonehaven supports different client needs<\/a> through its work with business owners<\/strong>, retirees<\/strong>, professionals<\/strong>, families<\/strong>, and next-generation wealth clients<\/strong>.<\/p>\n

\u00a0.<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

Stonehaven in the News<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n

\u00a0.<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

“Easing financial conditions, stabilizing global growth and a constructive backdrop for commodities should provide a slow but steady tailwind,” said Victor Kuntzevitsky, a portfolio manager at Stonehaven, Wellington-Altus Private Counsel.<\/p>\n

“We expect energy, financials, industrials, and particularly the materials sector to be strong contributors to earnings as demand remains firm and capital discipline supports margins.”<\/p>\n

Canada’s TSX seen hitting new highs on sector rotation: Reuters poll | Reuters<\/span><\/strong><\/a><\/p>\n

\u00a0.<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

Victor Kuntzevitsky, portfolio manager with Stonehaven Private Counsel at Wellington-Altus Private Counsel Inc. in Aurora, Ont., sees the current anxiety in the sector as a sign of a maturing market, not a reason to run for the exits.<\/p>\n

\u201cThe current turmoil in private credit is visible, but it\u2019s orderly, and exactly what the structure of semi-liquid private credit markets was built to handle,\u201d he says.<\/p>\n

However, Mr. Kuntzevitsky faults the way these investments have been marketed as offering an attractive yield while \u201cbeing like an ATM, where funds could be withdrawn at any time.\u201d<\/p>\n

He points out that some Canadian legacy credit funds had excessively liberal liquidity terms in which investors could request their money back within two weeks to a month.<\/p>\n

\u201cThere was a mismatch between the loans the funds held compared to the redemption terms they offered,\u201d he says. \u201cWhen these funds were overwhelmed with redemptions, they didn\u2019t have enough cash on hand and were forced to gate, preventing further withdrawals.\u201d<\/p>\n

Mr. Kuntzevitsky says the risk of contagion in private credit funds is higher in Canada because of the large overlap of advisors and investors in these funds: \u201cIf one fund gates, the advisor might think, \u2018If this fund has issues, I\u2019m going to submit redemptions in the other funds, too.\u2019\u201d<\/p>\n

Why more retail investors are pouring money into private credit \u2013 and the risks | The Globe and Mail<\/span><\/strong><\/a><\/p>\n

The material contained herein has been provided for information purposes only.\u00a0 The information has been drawn from sources believed to be reliable.\u00a0 Graphs, charts and other numbers are used for illustrative purposes only and do not reflect future values or future performance of any investment.\u00a0 The information does not provide financial, legal, tax or investment advice.\u00a0 Particular investment, tax, or trading strategies should be evaluated relative to each individual\u2019s objectives and risk tolerance.\u00a0 This does not constitute a recommendation or solicitation to buy or sell securities of any kind. Market conditions may change which may impact the information contained in this document. \u00a0Wellington-Altus Private Counsel\u00a0 (WAPC) does not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of the information contained herein, nor does WAPC assume any liability for any loss that may result from the reliance by any person upon any such information or opinions.\u00a0 Before acting on any of the above, please contact your financial advisor.<\/p>\n

.<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

This past quarter reminded us that markets can change direction quickly. When headlines shift and uncertainty rises, a steady process matters. Our focus remains the same: build diversified portfolios, manage risk carefully, and act when opportunities appear. \u00a0. What happened in markets Markets started the year on a strong note. In January and February, equities […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":106,"featured_media":1027,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_oasis_is_in_workflow":0,"_oasis_original":0,"_oasis_task_priority":"","_exactmetrics_skip_tracking":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[17],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-795","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-portfolio-commentary"],"yoast_head":"\nQ1 2026 Portfolio Commentary - Stonehaven Private Counsel<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/advisor.wellington-altus.ca\/stonehavenprivatecounsel\/q1-2026-portfolio-commentary\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Q1 2026 Portfolio Commentary - Stonehaven Private Counsel\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"This past quarter reminded us that markets can change direction quickly. When headlines shift and uncertainty rises, a steady process matters. Our focus remains the same: build diversified portfolios, manage risk carefully, and act when opportunities appear. \u00a0. What happened in markets Markets started the year on a strong note. 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