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July marked another strong month for equity markets, with major indices reaching new all-time highs. This continues the powerful rebound that began in the spring, and the underlying data supports a constructive outlook in our view.
At month-end, one of our proprietary indicators designed to identify momentum shifts in growth stocks triggered a key signal. Historically, when this occurs after a market decline of 10% or more (as seen in March and April), the results have been compelling:
Average 1-Year Return: +25.6%
Median 1-Year Return: +22.6%
Positive Return Frequency: 87%
This setup reinforces our bullish positioning as we move into the second half of the year.
While markets digest inflation data, rate expectations, and earnings reports, we’re focused on deeper structural forces reshaping the investment landscape.
I recently joined a podcast to discuss the “4Fs” framework I’ve been developing—Fiscal Dominance, Financial Repression, Passive Flows, and Fiat Money. You can watch the full conversation here:
In short, we’re entering an era where government spending increasingly drives economic growth, state intervention in markets is intensifying, and passive investment flows are distorting traditional price signals. The relationship between time, labour, and money is evolving, requiring a more adaptive, forward-looking approach to investment portfolios.
Model Portfolio Highlights Growth Portfolio: In July, we realized gains on Descartes Systems and trimmed our position in Microsoft, reallocating capital into Palantir Technologies. Palantir’s software is a cornerstone for defense and intelligence operations globally, and the company is showing strong revenue growth alongside accelerating share price momentum. We believe it’s well-positioned to benefit from current geopolitical and technological trends. We also exited First Quantum Minerals, using proceeds to increase our exposure to Kinross Gold.
American Growth Portfolio: We took profits on Salesforce and trimmed Microsoft, initiating a new position in Palantir to capture its upside potential.
Income Portfolio: We exited our position in U.S. financials, reallocating into a diversified basket of global growth companies to enhance long-term return potential while maintaining income generation.
Our approach targets opportunities with a significant margin of safety with minimal risk of permanent loss. Patience remains essential in realizing long-term gains.
Our clients value clarity, conviction, and a strategy that evolves with the world. If someone comes to mind, feel free to forward this note or introduce us directly.
As always, thank you for your trust. If you’d like to discuss your portfolio, the market outlook, or anything else on your mind, I’m just a call or email away.
Yours,
Ben
Ben W. Kizemchuk
Portfolio Manager & Investment Advisor
Wellington-Altus Private Wealth
Ben Kizemchuk offers full-service wealth management for high-net-worth Canadians including families, business owners, and successful professionals. Ben and his team provide investment advice, financial planning, tax minimization strategies, and retirement planning.
Performance reporting disclaimer: Performance results reflect the returns of each representative model portfolio. Returns are calculated using each model portfolio’s monthly performance, including changes in securities values, and accrued income (i.e., dividend and interest), against its market value at the closing of the last business day of the previous month. Performance results are expressed in the stated strategy’s base currency and are calculated on a net of fees basis. Individual account performance may materially differ from the representative performance history set out in this document, due to factors such as an account’s size, the length of time the strategy has been held, the timing and amount of deposits and withdrawals, the timing and amount of dividends and other income, and fees and other costs. Investors should seek professional financial advice regarding the appropriateness of investing in any investment strategy or security and no financial decisions should be made solely on the basis of the information provided in this document. This is not an official statement from WAPW. Please refer to your official WAPW statement for your specific performance numbers.
The opinions contained herein are the opinions of the author and readers should not assume they reflect the opinions or recommendations of Wellington-Altus Private Wealth. Assumptions, opinions and information constitute the author’s judgement as of the date this material and subject to change without notice. We do not warrant the completeness or accuracy of this material, and it should not be relied upon as such. Before acting on any recommendation, you should consider whether it is suitable for your particular circumstances and, if necessary, seek professional advice. Graphs and charts are used for illustrative purposes only and do not reflect future values or future performance of any investment. The information does not provide financial, legal, tax or investment advice. Particular investment, tax, or trading strategies should be evaluated relative to each individual’s objectives and risk tolerance. All third party products and services referred to or advertised in this presentation are sold by the company or organization named. While these products or services may serve as valuable aids to the independent investor, WAPW does not specifically endorse any of these products or services. The third party products and services referred to, or advertised in this presentation, are available as a convenience to its customers only, and WAPW is not liable for any claims, losses or damages however arising out of any purchase or use of third party products or services. All insurance products and services are offered by life licensed advisors of Wellington-Altus. Wellington-Altus Private Wealth Inc. is a member of the Canadian Investor Protection Fund and the Investment Industry Regulatory Organization of Canada. All trademarks are the property of their respective owners.
Market Commentary
August 2025 Update
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July marked another strong month for equity markets, with major indices reaching new all-time highs. This continues the powerful rebound that began in the spring, and the underlying data supports a constructive outlook in our view.
At month-end, one of our proprietary indicators designed to identify momentum shifts in growth stocks triggered a key signal. Historically, when this occurs after a market decline of 10% or more (as seen in March and April), the results have been compelling:
This setup reinforces our bullish positioning as we move into the second half of the year.
While markets digest inflation data, rate expectations, and earnings reports, we’re focused on deeper structural forces reshaping the investment landscape.
I recently joined a podcast to discuss the “4Fs” framework I’ve been developing—Fiscal Dominance, Financial Repression, Passive Flows, and Fiat Money. You can watch the full conversation here:
In short, we’re entering an era where government spending increasingly drives economic growth, state intervention in markets is intensifying, and passive investment flows are distorting traditional price signals. The relationship between time, labour, and money is evolving, requiring a more adaptive, forward-looking approach to investment portfolios.
Model Portfolio Highlights
Growth Portfolio: In July, we realized gains on Descartes Systems and trimmed our position in Microsoft, reallocating capital into Palantir Technologies. Palantir’s software is a cornerstone for defense and intelligence operations globally, and the company is showing strong revenue growth alongside accelerating share price momentum. We believe it’s well-positioned to benefit from current geopolitical and technological trends. We also exited First Quantum Minerals, using proceeds to increase our exposure to Kinross Gold.
American Growth Portfolio: We took profits on Salesforce and trimmed Microsoft, initiating a new position in Palantir to capture its upside potential.
Income Portfolio: We exited our position in U.S. financials, reallocating into a diversified basket of global growth companies to enhance long-term return potential while maintaining income generation.
Our approach targets opportunities with a significant margin of safety with minimal risk of permanent loss. Patience remains essential in realizing long-term gains.
Our clients value clarity, conviction, and a strategy that evolves with the world. If someone comes to mind, feel free to forward this note or introduce us directly.
As always, thank you for your trust. If you’d like to discuss your portfolio, the market outlook, or anything else on your mind, I’m just a call or email away.
Yours,
Ben
Ben W. Kizemchuk
Portfolio Manager & Investment Advisor
Wellington-Altus Private Wealth
Office: 416.369.3024
Email: bwk@wellington-altus.ca
Book time with Ben W. Kizemchuk: Portfolio and Plan Review
Ben Kizemchuk offers full-service wealth management for high-net-worth Canadians including families, business owners, and successful professionals. Ben and his team provide investment advice, financial planning, tax minimization strategies, and retirement planning.
Performance reporting disclaimer: Performance results reflect the returns of each representative model portfolio. Returns are calculated using each model portfolio’s monthly performance, including changes in securities values, and accrued income (i.e., dividend and interest), against its market value at the closing of the last business day of the previous month. Performance results are expressed in the stated strategy’s base currency and are calculated on a net of fees basis. Individual account performance may materially differ from the representative performance history set out in this document, due to factors such as an account’s size, the length of time the strategy has been held, the timing and amount of deposits and withdrawals, the timing and amount of dividends and other income, and fees and other costs. Investors should seek professional financial advice regarding the appropriateness of investing in any investment strategy or security and no financial decisions should be made solely on the basis of the information provided in this document. This is not an official statement from WAPW. Please refer to your official WAPW statement for your specific performance numbers.
Recent Posts
July 2025 Update
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June 2025 Update
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May 2025 Update
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April 2025 Update
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March 2025 Update
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The opinions contained herein are the opinions of the author and readers should not assume they reflect the opinions or recommendations of Wellington-Altus Private Wealth. Assumptions, opinions and information constitute the author’s judgement as of the date this material and subject to change without notice. We do not warrant the completeness or accuracy of this material, and it should not be relied upon as such. Before acting on any recommendation, you should consider whether it is suitable for your particular circumstances and, if necessary, seek professional advice. Graphs and charts are used for illustrative purposes only and do not reflect future values or future performance of any investment. The information does not provide financial, legal, tax or investment advice. Particular investment, tax, or trading strategies should be evaluated relative to each individual’s objectives and risk tolerance. All third party products and services referred to or advertised in this presentation are sold by the company or organization named. While these products or services may serve as valuable aids to the independent investor, WAPW does not specifically endorse any of these products or services. The third party products and services referred to, or advertised in this presentation, are available as a convenience to its customers only, and WAPW is not liable for any claims, losses or damages however arising out of any purchase or use of third party products or services. All insurance products and services are offered by life licensed advisors of Wellington-Altus. Wellington-Altus Private Wealth Inc. is a member of the Canadian Investor Protection Fund and the Investment Industry Regulatory Organization of Canada. All trademarks are the property of their respective owners.