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August delivered another round of record highs across major stock indices, extending the sharp rebound we anticipated earlier this year. Our proprietary indicators remain constructive, and late-month data confirmed this strength. A rare breadth thrust, where 90% of NYSE-listed stocks and volume advanced, triggered at month-end. This has historically preceded average 12-month S&P 500 gains of over 23%.
Beneath the headlines, the economy is quietly gaining momentum. Lending activity continues to pick up, driven by what we’ve termed a “dual-engine” dynamic: sustained fiscal support is helping de-risk the system, giving banks the confidence to lend again. This shift is meaningful and suggests gross domestic product growth could surprise to the upside in the months ahead.
Our long-term view continues to be shaped by what we call the “4Fs”: Fiat Money, Fiscal Dominance, Passive Flows, and Financial Repression. These forces are reshaping the investment landscape, dampening volatility and driving capital into equities. I recently discussed these ideas on Blockworks’ Forward Guidance podcast, which reaches over 190,000 subscribers. You can watch the full episode here:
We remain optimistic heading into year-end. Strong market internals, improving credit conditions, and supportive macro forces give us confidence in our positioning. As always, our focus is on managing risk while capturing upside.
Model Portfolio Highlights Growth Portfolio: We made no changes in August.
American Growth Portfolio: We exited a profitable position in NVIDIA and trimmed gains in Advanced Micro Devices, both of which have delivered strong performance. At the same time, we increased our existing exposure to Netflix and Intel.
Income Portfolio: We made no changes in August.
Our approach targets opportunities with a significant margin of safety with minimal risk of permanent loss. Patience remains essential in realizing long-term gains.
If you’re already a client, thank you for your continued trust. If you’re reading this as a friend of a client –welcome. We specialize in working with households with $1 million+ in investable assets, Ontario-based legal professionals, and early crypto wealth builders. If that sounds like you, we’d love to connect.
As always, thank you for your trust. If you’d like to discuss your portfolio, the market outlook, or anything else on your mind, I’m just a call or email away.
Yours,
Ben
Ben W. Kizemchuk
Portfolio Manager & Investment Advisor
Wellington-Altus Private Wealth
Ben Kizemchuk offers full-service wealth management for high-net-worth Canadians including families, business owners, and successful professionals. Ben and his team provide investment advice, financial planning, tax minimization strategies, and retirement planning.
Performance reporting disclaimer: Performance results reflect the returns of each representative model portfolio. Returns are calculated using each model portfolio’s monthly performance, including changes in securities values, and accrued income (i.e., dividend and interest), against its market value at the closing of the last business day of the previous month. Performance results are expressed in the stated strategy’s base currency and are calculated on a net of fees basis. Individual account performance may materially differ from the representative performance history set out in this document, due to factors such as an account’s size, the length of time the strategy has been held, the timing and amount of deposits and withdrawals, the timing and amount of dividends and other income, and fees and other costs. Investors should seek professional financial advice regarding the appropriateness of investing in any investment strategy or security and no financial decisions should be made solely on the basis of the information provided in this document. This is not an official statement from WAPW. Please refer to your official WAPW statement for your specific performance numbers.
The opinions contained herein are the opinions of the author and readers should not assume they reflect the opinions or recommendations of Wellington-Altus Private Wealth. Assumptions, opinions and information constitute the author’s judgement as of the date this material and subject to change without notice. We do not warrant the completeness or accuracy of this material, and it should not be relied upon as such. Before acting on any recommendation, you should consider whether it is suitable for your particular circumstances and, if necessary, seek professional advice. Graphs and charts are used for illustrative purposes only and do not reflect future values or future performance of any investment. The information does not provide financial, legal, tax or investment advice. Particular investment, tax, or trading strategies should be evaluated relative to each individual’s objectives and risk tolerance. All third party products and services referred to or advertised in this presentation are sold by the company or organization named. While these products or services may serve as valuable aids to the independent investor, WAPW does not specifically endorse any of these products or services. The third party products and services referred to, or advertised in this presentation, are available as a convenience to its customers only, and WAPW is not liable for any claims, losses or damages however arising out of any purchase or use of third party products or services. All insurance products and services are offered by life licensed advisors of Wellington-Altus. Wellington-Altus Private Wealth Inc. is a member of the Canadian Investor Protection Fund and the Investment Industry Regulatory Organization of Canada. All trademarks are the property of their respective owners.
Market Commentary
September 2025 Update
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August delivered another round of record highs across major stock indices, extending the sharp rebound we anticipated earlier this year. Our proprietary indicators remain constructive, and late-month data confirmed this strength. A rare breadth thrust, where 90% of NYSE-listed stocks and volume advanced, triggered at month-end. This has historically preceded average 12-month S&P 500 gains of over 23%.
Beneath the headlines, the economy is quietly gaining momentum. Lending activity continues to pick up, driven by what we’ve termed a “dual-engine” dynamic: sustained fiscal support is helping de-risk the system, giving banks the confidence to lend again. This shift is meaningful and suggests gross domestic product growth could surprise to the upside in the months ahead.
Our long-term view continues to be shaped by what we call the “4Fs”: Fiat Money, Fiscal Dominance, Passive Flows, and Financial Repression. These forces are reshaping the investment landscape, dampening volatility and driving capital into equities. I recently discussed these ideas on Blockworks’ Forward Guidance podcast, which reaches over 190,000 subscribers. You can watch the full episode here:
We remain optimistic heading into year-end. Strong market internals, improving credit conditions, and supportive macro forces give us confidence in our positioning. As always, our focus is on managing risk while capturing upside.
Model Portfolio Highlights
Growth Portfolio: We made no changes in August.
American Growth Portfolio: We exited a profitable position in NVIDIA and trimmed gains in Advanced Micro Devices, both of which have delivered strong performance. At the same time, we increased our existing exposure to Netflix and Intel.
Income Portfolio: We made no changes in August.
Our approach targets opportunities with a significant margin of safety with minimal risk of permanent loss. Patience remains essential in realizing long-term gains.
If you’re already a client, thank you for your continued trust. If you’re reading this as a friend of a client –welcome. We specialize in working with households with $1 million+ in investable assets, Ontario-based legal professionals, and early crypto wealth builders. If that sounds like you, we’d love to connect.
As always, thank you for your trust. If you’d like to discuss your portfolio, the market outlook, or anything else on your mind, I’m just a call or email away.
Yours,
Ben
Ben W. Kizemchuk
Portfolio Manager & Investment Advisor
Wellington-Altus Private Wealth
Office: 416.369.3024
Email: bwk@wellington-altus.ca
Book time with Ben W. Kizemchuk: Portfolio and Plan Review
Ben Kizemchuk offers full-service wealth management for high-net-worth Canadians including families, business owners, and successful professionals. Ben and his team provide investment advice, financial planning, tax minimization strategies, and retirement planning.
Performance reporting disclaimer: Performance results reflect the returns of each representative model portfolio. Returns are calculated using each model portfolio’s monthly performance, including changes in securities values, and accrued income (i.e., dividend and interest), against its market value at the closing of the last business day of the previous month. Performance results are expressed in the stated strategy’s base currency and are calculated on a net of fees basis. Individual account performance may materially differ from the representative performance history set out in this document, due to factors such as an account’s size, the length of time the strategy has been held, the timing and amount of deposits and withdrawals, the timing and amount of dividends and other income, and fees and other costs. Investors should seek professional financial advice regarding the appropriateness of investing in any investment strategy or security and no financial decisions should be made solely on the basis of the information provided in this document. This is not an official statement from WAPW. Please refer to your official WAPW statement for your specific performance numbers.
Recent Posts
August 2025 Update
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July 2025 Update
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June 2025 Update
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May 2025 Update
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April 2025 Update
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The opinions contained herein are the opinions of the author and readers should not assume they reflect the opinions or recommendations of Wellington-Altus Private Wealth. Assumptions, opinions and information constitute the author’s judgement as of the date this material and subject to change without notice. We do not warrant the completeness or accuracy of this material, and it should not be relied upon as such. Before acting on any recommendation, you should consider whether it is suitable for your particular circumstances and, if necessary, seek professional advice. Graphs and charts are used for illustrative purposes only and do not reflect future values or future performance of any investment. The information does not provide financial, legal, tax or investment advice. Particular investment, tax, or trading strategies should be evaluated relative to each individual’s objectives and risk tolerance. All third party products and services referred to or advertised in this presentation are sold by the company or organization named. While these products or services may serve as valuable aids to the independent investor, WAPW does not specifically endorse any of these products or services. The third party products and services referred to, or advertised in this presentation, are available as a convenience to its customers only, and WAPW is not liable for any claims, losses or damages however arising out of any purchase or use of third party products or services. All insurance products and services are offered by life licensed advisors of Wellington-Altus. Wellington-Altus Private Wealth Inc. is a member of the Canadian Investor Protection Fund and the Investment Industry Regulatory Organization of Canada. All trademarks are the property of their respective owners.