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We are pleased to report that our Growth and Income model portfolios have once again finished higher in August. Despite the typical summer lull, early August brought a significant spike in volatility, with the VIX Index surging above 50—a level usually associated with the most challenging market periods, such as the depths of the COVID-19 crash, the Great Financial Crisis, and the aftermath of 9/11.
The silver lining? History shows that these volatility spikes often pave the way for extraordinary returns. Since 1990, 91 out of 92 occurrences where the VIX reached these levels have resulted in higher stock prices a year later, with an average gain of 33%. This reinforces our belief that the market is set for a strong rally in the months ahead, and we are well-positioned to seize the opportunity.
Following the volatility spike, we observed a continuation of the breadth increase that began in July. Historically, such breadth thrusts have been reliable indicators of double-digit returns in the year ahead. The last time we witnessed a breadth thrust of this magnitude was in January 2023, which sparked the S&P 500’s current remarkable rally, ending the 2022 bear market. Now, with two consecutive breadth thrusts occurring within the last two months, our bullish outlook has grown even stronger.
The broader economic picture continues to reinforce our optimism. Recent GDP reports have exceeded expectations, retail spending remains robust, and wage gains continue to outpace inflation—further boosting consumer confidence. Although the unemployment rate has ticked up on both sides of the border, this is more a statistical nuance than a sign of job losses, in our opinion. In fact, both countries continue to experience net employment gains over the last year, with the rising unemployment rates largely driven by an expanding labour force due to an increase in immigration. This mirrors the dynamic of the late 1960s and 1970s when the unemployment rate grew as women entered the labour market. We believe today’s labour market is undergoing a similar and ultimately positive transformation.
We continue to favour high-quality stocks, particularly those poised to benefit from government spending, economic growth, and trends in passive investing. We are confident that stock prices are building a runway for significant appreciation, presenting excellent opportunities for our portfolios. Our strategy is solid, our outlook is bright, and we are committed to maximizing returns for our valued clients.
In our last note, we encouraged clients to deploy available cash to take advantage of the market dip, and we’re pleased that many of you took action. It’s not too late to take advantage of what we see as a strong year ahead. We invite you to share our success with your friends and family and again consider increasing your investment to fully benefit from the opportunities that lie ahead.
Thank you for your trust. Together, we look forward to continued success and prosperity.
Model Portfolio Highlights
Growth Portfolio
We made no changes in August.
American Growth Portfolio
We made no changes in August.
Income Portfolio
We made no changes to the portfolio in August. We continue to hold a diversified basket of high-quality stocks, allocating two-thirds to American companies and one-third to global companies.
Across all portfolios we look for mispriced opportunities, considering only those with a significant margin of safety and minimal risk of permanent capital loss. After identifying such opportunities, patience is the most important factor in realizing our expected long term return.
If you have any questions about your portfolio, financial planning or investments please be in touch.
Thank you.
Yours,
Ben
Ben W. Kizemchuk
Portfolio Manager & Investment Advisor
Wellington-Altus Private Wealth
Office: 416.369.3024
Email: bwk@wellington-altus.ca
Book a meeting
Ben Kizemchuk offers full-service wealth management for high-net-worth Canadians including families, business owners, and successful professionals. Ben and his team provide investment advice, financial planning, tax minimization strategies, and retirement planning.
Performance reporting disclaimer: Performance results reflect the returns of each representative model portfolio. Returns are calculated using each model portfolio’s monthly performance, including changes in securities values, and accrued income (i.e., dividend and interest), against its market value at the closing of the last business day of the previous month. Performance results are expressed in the stated strategy’s base currency and are calculated on a net of fees basis. Individual account performance may materially differ from the representative performance history set out in this document, due to factors such as an account’s size, the length of time the strategy has been held, the timing and amount of deposits and withdrawals, the timing and amount of dividends and other income, and fees and other costs. Investors should seek professional financial advice regarding the appropriateness of investing in any investment strategy or security and no financial decisions should be made solely on the basis of the information provided in this document. This is not an official statement from WAPW. Please refer to your official WAPW statement for your specific performance numbers.
Market Commentary
September 2024 Update
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We are pleased to report that our Growth and Income model portfolios have once again finished higher in August. Despite the typical summer lull, early August brought a significant spike in volatility, with the VIX Index surging above 50—a level usually associated with the most challenging market periods, such as the depths of the COVID-19 crash, the Great Financial Crisis, and the aftermath of 9/11.
The silver lining? History shows that these volatility spikes often pave the way for extraordinary returns. Since 1990, 91 out of 92 occurrences where the VIX reached these levels have resulted in higher stock prices a year later, with an average gain of 33%. This reinforces our belief that the market is set for a strong rally in the months ahead, and we are well-positioned to seize the opportunity.
Following the volatility spike, we observed a continuation of the breadth increase that began in July. Historically, such breadth thrusts have been reliable indicators of double-digit returns in the year ahead. The last time we witnessed a breadth thrust of this magnitude was in January 2023, which sparked the S&P 500’s current remarkable rally, ending the 2022 bear market. Now, with two consecutive breadth thrusts occurring within the last two months, our bullish outlook has grown even stronger.
The broader economic picture continues to reinforce our optimism. Recent GDP reports have exceeded expectations, retail spending remains robust, and wage gains continue to outpace inflation—further boosting consumer confidence. Although the unemployment rate has ticked up on both sides of the border, this is more a statistical nuance than a sign of job losses, in our opinion. In fact, both countries continue to experience net employment gains over the last year, with the rising unemployment rates largely driven by an expanding labour force due to an increase in immigration. This mirrors the dynamic of the late 1960s and 1970s when the unemployment rate grew as women entered the labour market. We believe today’s labour market is undergoing a similar and ultimately positive transformation.
We continue to favour high-quality stocks, particularly those poised to benefit from government spending, economic growth, and trends in passive investing. We are confident that stock prices are building a runway for significant appreciation, presenting excellent opportunities for our portfolios. Our strategy is solid, our outlook is bright, and we are committed to maximizing returns for our valued clients.
In our last note, we encouraged clients to deploy available cash to take advantage of the market dip, and we’re pleased that many of you took action. It’s not too late to take advantage of what we see as a strong year ahead. We invite you to share our success with your friends and family and again consider increasing your investment to fully benefit from the opportunities that lie ahead.
Thank you for your trust. Together, we look forward to continued success and prosperity.
Model Portfolio Highlights
Growth Portfolio
We made no changes in August.
American Growth Portfolio
We made no changes in August.
Income Portfolio
We made no changes to the portfolio in August. We continue to hold a diversified basket of high-quality stocks, allocating two-thirds to American companies and one-third to global companies.
Across all portfolios we look for mispriced opportunities, considering only those with a significant margin of safety and minimal risk of permanent capital loss. After identifying such opportunities, patience is the most important factor in realizing our expected long term return.
If you have any questions about your portfolio, financial planning or investments please be in touch.
Thank you.
Yours,
Ben
Ben W. Kizemchuk
Portfolio Manager & Investment Advisor
Wellington-Altus Private Wealth
Office: 416.369.3024
Email: bwk@wellington-altus.ca
Book a meeting
Ben Kizemchuk offers full-service wealth management for high-net-worth Canadians including families, business owners, and successful professionals. Ben and his team provide investment advice, financial planning, tax minimization strategies, and retirement planning.
Performance reporting disclaimer: Performance results reflect the returns of each representative model portfolio. Returns are calculated using each model portfolio’s monthly performance, including changes in securities values, and accrued income (i.e., dividend and interest), against its market value at the closing of the last business day of the previous month. Performance results are expressed in the stated strategy’s base currency and are calculated on a net of fees basis. Individual account performance may materially differ from the representative performance history set out in this document, due to factors such as an account’s size, the length of time the strategy has been held, the timing and amount of deposits and withdrawals, the timing and amount of dividends and other income, and fees and other costs. Investors should seek professional financial advice regarding the appropriateness of investing in any investment strategy or security and no financial decisions should be made solely on the basis of the information provided in this document. This is not an official statement from WAPW. Please refer to your official WAPW statement for your specific performance numbers.
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The opinions contained herein are the opinions of the author and readers should not assume they reflect the opinions or recommendations of Wellington-Altus Private Wealth. Assumptions, opinions and information constitute the author’s judgement as of the date this material and subject to change without notice. We do not warrant the completeness or accuracy of this material, and it should not be relied upon as such. Before acting on any recommendation, you should consider whether it is suitable for your particular circumstances and, if necessary, seek professional advice. Graphs and charts are used for illustrative purposes only and do not reflect future values or future performance of any investment. The information does not provide financial, legal, tax or investment advice. Particular investment, tax, or trading strategies should be evaluated relative to each individual’s objectives and risk tolerance. All third party products and services referred to or advertised in this presentation are sold by the company or organization named. While these products or services may serve as valuable aids to the independent investor, WAPW does not specifically endorse any of these products or services. The third party products and services referred to, or advertised in this presentation, are available as a convenience to its customers only, and WAPW is not liable for any claims, losses or damages however arising out of any purchase or use of third party products or services. All insurance products and services are offered by life licensed advisors of Wellington-Altus. Wellington-Altus Private Wealth Inc. is a member of the Canadian Investor Protection Fund and the Investment Industry Regulatory Organization of Canada. All trademarks are the property of their respective owners.