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September brought another wave of record highs across major stock indices, extending the V-shaped recovery we anticipated earlier this year. Our portfolios have responded well: the Growth Portfolio is up 40.7% over the past 12 months, the American Growth Portfolio has gained 39.1%, and the Income Portfolio has returned 12.3%.
While we’re pleased with these results, our focus now shifts to managing risk. Late September saw one of the sharpest price accelerations in recent history, flagged by our suite of proprietary indicators. Historically, such surges have preceded short-term pullbacks of 4-15%. These corrections have tended to be brief, with none evolving into prolonged bear markets.
In response, we’ve tactically reduced exposure and raised cash across the Growth and Income Portfolios, positioning ourselves to re-enter when conditions improve. Our guiding principle remains unchanged: protect capital first, participate in growth second. We continue to monitor market signals closely and expect to redeploy capital as the rally resumes into year-end.
We believe the potential volatility is not a reflection of economic weakness, but rather a temporary liquidity drain in the U.S. banking system. A unique mix of large September tax payments and elevated Treasury debt issuance has tightened reserves, potentially resulting in reduced market liquidity. While this is likely to amplify short-term swings, we ultimately view it as a transient issue. Liquidity should normalize in due course, allowing markets to stabilize.
Looking ahead, our outlook remains constructive. The economy continues to be powered by a “dual-engine” dynamic of ongoing fiscal spending and bank lending. This combination supports continued growth and reinforces our expectation for Gross Domestic Product growth to outperform consensus forecasts. We’re optimistic about what’s ahead and are preparing portfolios to take advantage of the next move higher once markets find their footing.
Model Portfolio Highlights
Growth Portfolio: In September, we realized profits on Alphabet, Amazon, Mastercard, Microsoft, and Shopify, raising cash levels to approximately 40%. That cash has been parked in liquid, high-interest savings, allowing us to earn while we wait. We continue to hold positions in Constellation Software, Dollarama, Kinross Gold, Palantir, and Tesla. Our buy list is ready should markets present attractive re-entry points.
American Growth Portfolio:We saw similar activity, with exits from Alphabet, Amazon, Mastercard, Microsoft, and a partial reduction in Netflix. This also brought cash levels to around 40%, now held in high-interest savings. We retained positions in Advanced Micro Devices, Intel, Netflix, Palantir, and Tesla.
Income Portfolio:We realized profits on our basket of global growth stocks, raising cash to roughly 50% of the portfolio. That capital has been moved into liquid, high-interest savings, while the remaining half remains invested in a diversified basket of Canadian large-cap stocks.
Our approach targets opportunities with a significant margin of safety with minimal risk of permanent loss. Patience remains essential in realizing long-term gains.
Our clients value proactive risk management, clear communication, and a disciplined approach to growth. If you know someone who might benefit from this perspective, feel free to forward this note. And as always, if you have questions or would like to schedule a conversation, we’re here to help.
Yours,
Ben
Ben W. Kizemchuk
Portfolio Manager & Investment Advisor
Wellington-Altus Private Wealth
Office: 416.369.3024
Email: bwk@wellington-altus.ca
Book time with Ben W. Kizemchuk: Portfolio and Plan Review
Ben Kizemchuk offers full-service wealth management for high-net-worth Canadians including families, business owners, and successful professionals. Ben and his team provide investment advice, financial planning, tax minimization strategies, and retirement planning.
Performance reporting disclaimer: Performance results reflect the returns of each representative model portfolio. Returns are calculated using each model portfolio’s monthly performance, including changes in securities values, and accrued income (i.e., dividend and interest), against its market value at the closing of the last business day of the previous month. Performance results are expressed in the stated strategy’s base currency and are calculated on a net of fees basis. Individual account performance may materially differ from the representative performance history set out in this document, due to factors such as an account’s size, the length of time the strategy has been held, the timing and amount of deposits and withdrawals, the timing and amount of dividends and other income, and fees and other costs. Investors should seek professional financial advice regarding the appropriateness of investing in any investment strategy or security and no financial decisions should be made solely on the basis of the information provided in this document. This is not an official statement from WAPW. Please refer to your official WAPW statement for your specific performance numbers.
Market Commentary
October 2025 Update
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September brought another wave of record highs across major stock indices, extending the V-shaped recovery we anticipated earlier this year. Our portfolios have responded well: the Growth Portfolio is up 40.7% over the past 12 months, the American Growth Portfolio has gained 39.1%, and the Income Portfolio has returned 12.3%.
While we’re pleased with these results, our focus now shifts to managing risk. Late September saw one of the sharpest price accelerations in recent history, flagged by our suite of proprietary indicators. Historically, such surges have preceded short-term pullbacks of 4-15%. These corrections have tended to be brief, with none evolving into prolonged bear markets.
In response, we’ve tactically reduced exposure and raised cash across the Growth and Income Portfolios, positioning ourselves to re-enter when conditions improve. Our guiding principle remains unchanged: protect capital first, participate in growth second. We continue to monitor market signals closely and expect to redeploy capital as the rally resumes into year-end.
We believe the potential volatility is not a reflection of economic weakness, but rather a temporary liquidity drain in the U.S. banking system. A unique mix of large September tax payments and elevated Treasury debt issuance has tightened reserves, potentially resulting in reduced market liquidity. While this is likely to amplify short-term swings, we ultimately view it as a transient issue. Liquidity should normalize in due course, allowing markets to stabilize.
Looking ahead, our outlook remains constructive. The economy continues to be powered by a “dual-engine” dynamic of ongoing fiscal spending and bank lending. This combination supports continued growth and reinforces our expectation for Gross Domestic Product growth to outperform consensus forecasts. We’re optimistic about what’s ahead and are preparing portfolios to take advantage of the next move higher once markets find their footing.
Model Portfolio Highlights
Growth Portfolio: In September, we realized profits on Alphabet, Amazon, Mastercard, Microsoft, and Shopify, raising cash levels to approximately 40%. That cash has been parked in liquid, high-interest savings, allowing us to earn while we wait. We continue to hold positions in Constellation Software, Dollarama, Kinross Gold, Palantir, and Tesla. Our buy list is ready should markets present attractive re-entry points.
American Growth Portfolio:We saw similar activity, with exits from Alphabet, Amazon, Mastercard, Microsoft, and a partial reduction in Netflix. This also brought cash levels to around 40%, now held in high-interest savings. We retained positions in Advanced Micro Devices, Intel, Netflix, Palantir, and Tesla.
Income Portfolio:We realized profits on our basket of global growth stocks, raising cash to roughly 50% of the portfolio. That capital has been moved into liquid, high-interest savings, while the remaining half remains invested in a diversified basket of Canadian large-cap stocks.
Our approach targets opportunities with a significant margin of safety with minimal risk of permanent loss. Patience remains essential in realizing long-term gains.
Our clients value proactive risk management, clear communication, and a disciplined approach to growth. If you know someone who might benefit from this perspective, feel free to forward this note. And as always, if you have questions or would like to schedule a conversation, we’re here to help.
Yours,
Ben
Ben W. Kizemchuk
Portfolio Manager & Investment Advisor
Wellington-Altus Private Wealth
Office: 416.369.3024
Email: bwk@wellington-altus.ca
Book time with Ben W. Kizemchuk: Portfolio and Plan Review
Ben Kizemchuk offers full-service wealth management for high-net-worth Canadians including families, business owners, and successful professionals. Ben and his team provide investment advice, financial planning, tax minimization strategies, and retirement planning.
Performance reporting disclaimer: Performance results reflect the returns of each representative model portfolio. Returns are calculated using each model portfolio’s monthly performance, including changes in securities values, and accrued income (i.e., dividend and interest), against its market value at the closing of the last business day of the previous month. Performance results are expressed in the stated strategy’s base currency and are calculated on a net of fees basis. Individual account performance may materially differ from the representative performance history set out in this document, due to factors such as an account’s size, the length of time the strategy has been held, the timing and amount of deposits and withdrawals, the timing and amount of dividends and other income, and fees and other costs. Investors should seek professional financial advice regarding the appropriateness of investing in any investment strategy or security and no financial decisions should be made solely on the basis of the information provided in this document. This is not an official statement from WAPW. Please refer to your official WAPW statement for your specific performance numbers.
Recent Posts
September 2025 Update
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August 2025 Update
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July 2025 Update
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June 2025 Update
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May 2025 Update
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The opinions contained herein are the opinions of the author and readers should not assume they reflect the opinions or recommendations of Wellington-Altus Private Wealth. Assumptions, opinions and information constitute the author’s judgement as of the date this material and subject to change without notice. We do not warrant the completeness or accuracy of this material, and it should not be relied upon as such. Before acting on any recommendation, you should consider whether it is suitable for your particular circumstances and, if necessary, seek professional advice. Graphs and charts are used for illustrative purposes only and do not reflect future values or future performance of any investment. The information does not provide financial, legal, tax or investment advice. Particular investment, tax, or trading strategies should be evaluated relative to each individual’s objectives and risk tolerance. All third party products and services referred to or advertised in this presentation are sold by the company or organization named. While these products or services may serve as valuable aids to the independent investor, WAPW does not specifically endorse any of these products or services. The third party products and services referred to, or advertised in this presentation, are available as a convenience to its customers only, and WAPW is not liable for any claims, losses or damages however arising out of any purchase or use of third party products or services. All insurance products and services are offered by life licensed advisors of Wellington-Altus. Wellington-Altus Private Wealth Inc. is a member of the Canadian Investor Protection Fund and the Investment Industry Regulatory Organization of Canada. All trademarks are the property of their respective owners.