{"id":954,"date":"2025-05-05T16:02:51","date_gmt":"2025-05-05T20:02:51","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/advisor.wellington-altus.ca\/stonehavenwealthmanagement\/?p=954"},"modified":"2025-05-06T05:38:41","modified_gmt":"2025-05-06T09:38:41","slug":"may-2025-update","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/advisor.wellington-altus.ca\/stonehavenwealthmanagement\/2025\/05\/05\/may-2025-update\/","title":{"rendered":"May 2025 Update"},"content":{"rendered":"

If you’d like to add friends or family to this email list, please sign up here<\/a>.<\/em><\/p>\n

Despite historic volatility, April ended on a strong note. The Growth portfolios posted solid gains for the month, while the Income portfolio saw a modest pullback. Year-over-year, all model portfolios remain firmly in positive territory.<\/p>\n

Most will remember April for the market\u2019s turbulence. We\u2019ll remember it for the clarity it brought.<\/p>\n

Our systems picked up a rare cluster of technical and sentiment signals, indicators that have historically appeared near major market bottoms. Chief among them: multiple \u201cbreadth thrust\u201d signals, which measure broad, aggressive investor buying. These signals are uncommon on their own, but April delivered several in rapid succession. Historically, when clusters like this have occurred\u2014March 2009 and March 2020 come to mind\u2014markets went on to deliver strong double-digit gains over the following 12 months.<\/p>\n

Meanwhile, investor sentiment reached extreme pessimism. The options market and surveys reflected the kind of widespread gloom typically seen at the end of downturns, not the beginning. It\u2019s often when investors feel most uncertain that opportunities are greatest.<\/p>\n

Beneath the noise, the economic backdrop remains solid. Consumer spending is steady, employment is firm, and credit creation is picking up. That disconnect between bleak headlines and strong fundamentals is precisely where future strength is born.<\/p>\n

Much of the recent concern stems from tariffs. While they\u2019ve clearly shaken confidence, the actual economic impact, around $150 billion annually, is modest in the context of a $30 trillion U.S. economy. Businesses have adapted, stockpiling inventory and softening the short-term blow. Our estimates suggest two to three months of goods are already in place. If tariffs are scaled back, a likely outcome in our view, that inventory could help fuel a fresh wave of consumption.<\/p>\n

Labour markets also continue to support the bigger picture. While headlines highlight isolated layoffs, most employers are holding on to workers, a trend known as \u201clabour hoarding.\u201d After the post-COVID-19 hiring scramble, businesses are reluctant to let go. Job openings remain well above historical norms, driven by the retirement of Boomers and growing demand for skilled labour. In Canada, a soft March jobs report likely reflected temporary disruptions from tariffs, and we expect a rebound in coming months.<\/p>\n

Perhaps most importantly, credit growth is accelerating. Recent data on loans and leases point to renewed risk-taking and investment. One of the most overlooked developments today is the push for U.S. bank deregulation. The potential release of over $700 billion in bank capital could dramatically expand credit access just as Millennials are forming households. This initiative could become the most growth-enhancing policy shift since the 2017 tax cuts.<\/p>\n

Add it all up, and we believe the case for continued economic expansion remains strong. Fiscal spending remains active, credit conditions are improving, and pessimism is peaking. That\u2019s a powerful mix for long-term investors.<\/p>\n

We remain focused on value, discipline, and capital preservation, and our portfolios are positioned accordingly. If you\u2019re considering putting additional capital to work, or simply want to understand what this environment means for your goals, this is an opportune time to reconnect.<\/p>\n

If you’re sitting on the sidelines with cash, it\u2019s not too late. We believe April marked a major market low, and moments like these don\u2019t come around often. If you have $1 million or more to invest, we\u2019d be pleased to show you how our tailored strategies can help you grow and protect your wealth. Please don\u2019t hesitate to reach out.<\/p>\n

You can book a time here: Book time with Ben W. Kizemchuk: Portfolio and Plan Review <\/a><\/p>\n


\nModel Portfolio Highlights
\n<\/strong>Growth Portfolio: <\/strong>In April, we trimmed Shopify and added to Kinross Gold. We believe increasing exposure to gold offers a prudent hedge against growing inflationary pressures.<\/p>\n

American Growth Portfolio: <\/strong>We reduced exposure to Intel and increased our position in Tesla.<\/p>\n

Income Portfolio: <\/strong>We maintained exposure to U.S. financials and Canadian utilities. Financials appear well-positioned for growth, while utilities offer stability in volatile markets\u2014two of the strongest themes in our selection universe.<\/p>\n

Our approach targets opportunities with a significant margin of safety with minimal risk of permanent loss. Patience remains essential in realizing long-term gains.<\/p>\n

For questions about your portfolio or to schedule a meeting, please contact us. Thank you.<\/p>\n

Yours,<\/p>\n

Ben<\/p>\n

Ben W. Kizemchuk
\nPortfolio Manager & Investment Advisor
\nWellington-Altus Private Wealth\"\"<\/p>\n

Office: 416.369.3024
\nEmail: bwk@wellington-altus.ca<\/a>
\nBook time with Ben W. Kizemchuk: Portfolio and Plan Review <\/a><\/p>\n

Ben Kizemchuk offers full-service wealth management for high-net-worth Canadians including families, business owners, and successful professionals. Ben and his team provide investment advice, financial planning, tax minimization strategies, and retirement planning.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Performance reporting disclaimer:<\/u> Performance results reflect the returns of each representative model portfolio. Returns are calculated using each model portfolio\u2019s monthly performance, including changes in securities values, and accrued income (i.e., dividend and interest), against its market value at the closing of the last business day of the previous month. Performance results are expressed in the stated strategy\u2019s base currency and are calculated on a net of fees basis. Individual account performance may materially differ from the representative performance history set out in this document, due to factors such as an account’s size, the length of time the strategy has been held, the timing and amount of deposits and withdrawals, the timing and amount of dividends and other income, and fees and other costs. Investors should seek professional financial advice regarding the appropriateness of investing in any investment strategy or security and no financial decisions should be made solely on the basis of the information provided in this document. This is not an official statement from WAPW. Please refer to your official WAPW statement for your specific performance numbers.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

If you’d like to add friends or family to this email list, please sign up here. Despite historic volatility, April ended on a strong note. The Growth portfolios posted solid gains for the month, while the Income portfolio saw a modest pullback. Year-over-year, all model portfolios remain firmly in positive territory. Most will remember April […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":90,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_oasis_is_in_workflow":0,"_oasis_original":0,"_oasis_task_priority":"","_exactmetrics_skip_tracking":false,"_exactmetrics_sitenote_active":false,"_exactmetrics_sitenote_note":"","_exactmetrics_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[14],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-954","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-market-commentary"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/advisor.wellington-altus.ca\/stonehavenwealthmanagement\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/954","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/advisor.wellington-altus.ca\/stonehavenwealthmanagement\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/advisor.wellington-altus.ca\/stonehavenwealthmanagement\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/advisor.wellington-altus.ca\/stonehavenwealthmanagement\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/90"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/advisor.wellington-altus.ca\/stonehavenwealthmanagement\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=954"}],"version-history":[{"count":7,"href":"https:\/\/advisor.wellington-altus.ca\/stonehavenwealthmanagement\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/954\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":961,"href":"https:\/\/advisor.wellington-altus.ca\/stonehavenwealthmanagement\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/954\/revisions\/961"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/advisor.wellington-altus.ca\/stonehavenwealthmanagement\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=954"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/advisor.wellington-altus.ca\/stonehavenwealthmanagement\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=954"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/advisor.wellington-altus.ca\/stonehavenwealthmanagement\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=954"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}