{"id":997,"date":"2025-11-04T16:00:06","date_gmt":"2025-11-04T21:00:06","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/advisor.wellington-altus.ca\/stonehavenwealthmanagement\/?p=997"},"modified":"2025-11-04T15:29:56","modified_gmt":"2025-11-04T20:29:56","slug":"november-2025-update","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/advisor.wellington-altus.ca\/stonehavenwealthmanagement\/2025\/11\/04\/november-2025-update\/","title":{"rendered":"November 2025 Update"},"content":{"rendered":"

If you’d like to add friends or family to this email list, please sign up here<\/a>.<\/em><\/p>\n

October delivered another round of record highs across major equity indices. Despite holding elevated cash positions of roughly 50% across model portfolios, we posted solid results. The American Growth Portfolio led with a 3.9% gain for the month, now up 41.3% year-over-year. Our Income Portfolio rose 1.0%, bringing its annual return to 10.0%. The Growth Portfolio saw a modest decline of 2.2%, largely due to short-term gold volatility, but remains up 36% over the past year.<\/p>\n

These results reflect our core philosophy: protect capital first, then compound it. In a market priced for perfection, that discipline matters more than ever.<\/p>\n

We\u2019re seeing notable signs of exuberance in the options market, particularly among the \u201cMagnificent Seven\u201d tech stocks. A rare inversion in the “put-call skew”, where traders are paying more for near-term upside exposure than downside protection, suggests crowded positioning and elevated expectations. Historically, this setup has preceded short-term volatility.<\/p>\n

The economy remains broadly healthy, but signs of slowing momentum are emerging. We\u2019re operating in a regime of Fiscal Dominance, where government spending drives growth more than interest rates. While many assume this engine runs indefinitely, recent developments suggest a temporary deceleration. The U.S. government shutdown is withholding fiscal stimulus, while aggressive Treasury issuance is draining liquidity. The pace of lending to hedge funds and investment vehicles is also slowing. We view these as short-term but important headwinds, with the expectation that both fiscal spending and bank lending will re-engage in due course.<\/p>\n

Given the confluence of stretched equity positioning and tightening liquidity, we\u2019ve adjusted our near-term outlook to anticipate increased volatility into year-end. Rather than chase momentum, we\u2019re prepared to deploy capital when valuations become more compelling. Historically, periods of dislocation have offered some of the best opportunities for long-term investors. Our elevated cash levels are a strategic choice, giving us the flexibility to act decisively when prices reset. Our long-term thesis, that the rally which began in April 2025 has further to run, remains unchanged.<\/p>\n

Model Portfolio Highlights
\n<\/strong>Growth Portfolio: <\/strong>We realized gains in Palantir and reallocated proceeds to high-interest savings. We continue to hold positions in Constellation Software, Dollarama, Kinross Gold, and Tesla. Currently, 50% of the portfolio remains in cash.
\n<\/strong><\/p>\n

American Growth Portfolio: <\/strong>We also exited Palantir, with proceeds moved to high-interest savings. Cash levels are slightly higher here, at 58%.<\/p>\n

Income Portfolio: <\/strong>The Income Portfolio remains balanced, with 50% allocated to a diversified basket of global growth stocks and 50% in high-interest savings. This structure provides both yield and liquidity, aligning with our defensive posture in the current environment.
\n<\/strong><\/p>\n

Our approach targets opportunities with a significant margin of safety with minimal risk of permanent loss. Patience remains essential in realizing long-term gains.<\/p>\n

Our clients value proactive risk management, clear communication, and a disciplined approach to growth. If you know someone who might benefit from this perspective, feel free to forward this note. If you have questions or would like to schedule a conversation, please be in touch. As always, thank you for your continued trust.<\/p>\n

Yours,<\/p>\n

Ben<\/p>\n

Ben W. Kizemchuk
\nPortfolio Manager & Investment Advisor
\nWellington-Altus Private Wealth\"\"<\/p>\n

Office: 416.369.3024
\nEmail: bwk@wellington-altus.ca<\/a>
\nBook time with Ben W. Kizemchuk: Portfolio and Plan Review <\/a><\/p>\n

Ben Kizemchuk offers full-service wealth management for high-net-worth Canadians including families, business owners, and successful professionals. Ben and his team provide investment advice, financial planning, tax minimization strategies, and retirement planning.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Performance reporting disclaimer:<\/u> Performance results reflect the returns of each representative model portfolio. Returns are calculated using each model portfolio\u2019s monthly performance, including changes in securities values, and accrued income (i.e., dividend and interest), against its market value at the closing of the last business day of the previous month. Performance results are expressed in the stated strategy\u2019s base currency and are calculated on a net of fees basis. Individual account performance may materially differ from the representative performance history set out in this document, due to factors such as an account’s size, the length of time the strategy has been held, the timing and amount of deposits and withdrawals, the timing and amount of dividends and other income, and fees and other costs. Investors should seek professional financial advice regarding the appropriateness of investing in any investment strategy or security and no financial decisions should be made solely on the basis of the information provided in this document. This is not an official statement from WAPW. Please refer to your official WAPW statement for your specific performance numbers.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

If you’d like to add friends or family to this email list, please sign up here. October delivered another round of record highs across major equity indices. Despite holding elevated cash positions of roughly 50% across model portfolios, we posted solid results. The American Growth Portfolio led with a 3.9% gain for the month, now […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":90,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_oasis_is_in_workflow":0,"_oasis_original":0,"_oasis_task_priority":"","_exactmetrics_skip_tracking":false,"_exactmetrics_sitenote_active":false,"_exactmetrics_sitenote_note":"","_exactmetrics_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[14],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-997","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-market-commentary"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/advisor.wellington-altus.ca\/stonehavenwealthmanagement\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/997","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/advisor.wellington-altus.ca\/stonehavenwealthmanagement\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/advisor.wellington-altus.ca\/stonehavenwealthmanagement\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/advisor.wellington-altus.ca\/stonehavenwealthmanagement\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/90"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/advisor.wellington-altus.ca\/stonehavenwealthmanagement\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=997"}],"version-history":[{"count":3,"href":"https:\/\/advisor.wellington-altus.ca\/stonehavenwealthmanagement\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/997\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":1000,"href":"https:\/\/advisor.wellington-altus.ca\/stonehavenwealthmanagement\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/997\/revisions\/1000"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/advisor.wellington-altus.ca\/stonehavenwealthmanagement\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=997"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/advisor.wellington-altus.ca\/stonehavenwealthmanagement\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=997"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/advisor.wellington-altus.ca\/stonehavenwealthmanagement\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=997"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}