{"id":656,"date":"2018-06-29T15:54:37","date_gmt":"2018-06-29T15:54:37","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/advisor.wellington-altus.ca\/stuchberry1\/?p=656"},"modified":"2020-05-11T16:03:27","modified_gmt":"2020-05-11T16:03:27","slug":"stuchberry-group-outlook-newsletter-summer-2018-volume-7-issue-2","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/advisor.wellington-altus.ca\/stuchberrygroup\/blog\/2018\/06\/29\/stuchberry-group-outlook-newsletter-summer-2018-volume-7-issue-2\/","title":{"rendered":"Stuchberry Group Outlook Newsletter | Summer 2018 | Volume 7 Issue 2"},"content":{"rendered":"\t\t<div data-elementor-type=\"wp-post\" data-elementor-id=\"656\" class=\"elementor elementor-656\" data-elementor-post-type=\"post\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<section class=\"elementor-section elementor-top-section elementor-element elementor-element-f7096d1 elementor-section-boxed elementor-section-height-default elementor-section-height-default\" data-id=\"f7096d1\" data-element_type=\"section\" data-e-type=\"section\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-container elementor-column-gap-default\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-column elementor-col-100 elementor-top-column elementor-element elementor-element-f6cf8d9\" data-id=\"f6cf8d9\" data-element_type=\"column\" data-e-type=\"column\">\n\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-wrap elementor-element-populated\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-edc0224 elementor-widget elementor-widget-text-editor\" data-id=\"edc0224\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-e-type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"text-editor.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<p><strong>REVIEW<\/strong><\/p><p>The year is turning out better than anticipated and we are happy to report most investment themes are performing well in 2018.\u00a0 Our strength remains to be technology investments, highlighted by Twilio, which is up over 100% year to date.\u00a0 We are also witnessing great performance in Amazon, Facebook (post-hacking allegations), and Alibaba \u2013 all cloud computing companies.\u00a0 Our modern portfolios are performing as planned, and year-to-date we continue to add to the tech sector as opportunities have presentated themselves. We have bought some more Tencent in Q2 and will likely add to other names if opportunities arise over the summer.<\/p><p>The sector struggling in the portfolio is Financials, more specifically European Financials. Deutche Bank has been our worst performing stock year-to-date \u2013 forced to fire their CEO and generally having trouble with their turnaround plan.\u00a0 We also face a contradiction in global monetary policy; in the USA we have seen two interest rate hikes, but in Europe, they are actually trying to extend Quantitative Easing (forcing interest rates down).\u00a0 This has caused both shares of European Financials and the euro to fall, both of which hurt our investment \u2013 it\u2019s a perfect storm of what we don\u2019t want.<\/p><p>We were surprised to see the damage done to bond yields. It is important to see just how low European bond yields are; Germany is barely 30bps, where Canada and USA are 2.10% and 2.90% respectively.\u00a0 Germany is actually down 50% top-to-bottom in yields this year.\u00a0 In our opinion this is not sustainable, European yields must go higher, and when they do, we will be very happy owning European Financials.<\/p><p><img fetchpriority=\"high\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"wp-image-929 aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/advisor.wellington-altus.ca\/thestuchberrygroup\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/8\/2018\/06\/1.jpg\" sizes=\"(max-width: 737px) 100vw, 737px\" srcset=\"https:\/\/advisor.wellington-altus.ca\/thestuchberrygroup\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/8\/2018\/06\/1.jpg 529w, https:\/\/advisor.wellington-altus.ca\/thestuchberrygroup\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/8\/2018\/06\/1-300x212.jpg 300w\" alt=\"\" width=\"737\" height=\"520\" \/><\/p><p>Source: Bloomberg<\/p><p>\u00a0<\/p><p><strong>\u00a0<\/strong><strong>Outlook<\/strong><\/p><p>We think \u2018sell in May and go away\u2019 remains short sighted.\u00a0 We continue to believe there is a lot of value in the market, even in the sectors with such great performance.\u00a0 The secular growth trend in the interuption stocks and the digital innovators is still early.\u00a0 Add the fact that these companies generally have terrific balance sheets that make them immune to rising rate environment.\u00a0 As an example, when we first bought Facebook, it grew at 35% (yoy), it has grown at over 50% for nearly two years. Amazon was growing at 30% when we bought it \u2013 now it is growing at 40%. These companies have accelerated growth.<\/p><p>The recentpoliticial skirmishes will certainly cause short term moves in the markets, but it\u2019s important to note how little it impacts our companies.\u00a0 Tarriffs and trade war issues only affect things that are actually produced and consumed, and most of our holdings do not produce tangible goods, they are only services, and are unlikely to be affected by tarriffs.<\/p><p><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-full wp-image-930 aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/advisor.wellington-altus.ca\/thestuchberrygroup\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/8\/2018\/06\/2.gif\" alt=\"\" width=\"736\" height=\"530\" \/><\/p><p>Source: Bloomberg<\/p><p>We believe the market is still in the process of completing the January correction, and at 6 months long it is a proper correction in our eyes.\u00a0 Looking at the chart above is what gives us optimism. This secular bull market has been led higher by technology companies, and the Nasdaq broke out to new highs in June only to correct down to the old highs. It wouldn\u2019t be surprising to see the main markets take a few more months and join to the upside.\u00a0 That said, it is very possible for the lagging markets to pull the leaders down with them, but we do not think it is as likely a scenario.\u00a0 As we have said before, the economy remains strong, we don\u2019t think the tax cuts are fully priced into markets and longer term demographics are looking very good for consumption.\u00a0 We just had a 10% equity market correction, and have yet to break out higher in major markets.<\/p><p>Our strategy remains unchanged, and in this correction, we are going to hold much more cash than usual to prevent any kind of stress knowing we have at least a year of cashflow in client accounts.\u00a0 Second, we will continue to add selectively to financials, technology and strong balance sheet stocks in order to safely navigate this transitionary period as global bond markets must normalize over the next 1-3 years.\u00a0 Once complete, we should be able to safely add some income securities to enhance our cashflow.<\/p><p>\u00a0<\/p><p><strong>Update on Business<\/strong><\/p><ol><li>We have launched our new website \u2013\u00a0<a href=\"http:\/\/www.stuchberrygroup.ca\/\">StuchberryGroup.ca<\/a>\u00a0and added quite a bit of our content and blogs on markets. Please have a look, and give us your feedback.<\/li><li>Our Twitter and Linkedin profiles are full of new content.<\/li><li>Chris has taken on a more active role on BNN, doing a marketcall in June.<\/li><li>We are in the process of rolling out Maple as a healthcare benefit for Clients who qualify.<\/li><li>The firm continues to grow and has been recognized as one of the most successful startups in retail wealth management.<\/li><\/ol><p>\u00a0<\/p><p>Have a great summer,<\/p><p>Chris, Rick, Steve, Sophia<\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/section>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>REVIEW The year is turning out better than anticipated and we are happy to report most investment themes are performing well in 2018.\u00a0 Our strength remains to be technology investments, highlighted by Twilio, which is up over 100% year to date.\u00a0 We are also witnessing great performance in Amazon, Facebook (post-hacking allegations), and Alibaba \u2013 [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":12,"featured_media":657,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_oasis_is_in_workflow":0,"_oasis_original":0,"_oasis_task_priority":"","_exactmetrics_skip_tracking":false,"_exactmetrics_sitenote_active":false,"_exactmetrics_sitenote_note":"","_exactmetrics_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[18],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-656","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-quarterly-outlook"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.3 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Stuchberry Group Outlook Newsletter | Summer 2018 | Volume 7 Issue 2 - The Stuchberry Group<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link 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