Newswire

Home >> Newswire >> 

Testing Your Theory

Testing Your Theory

Hi Everyone,

It’s critical to constantly test and re analyze your ideas to see if A) you are wrong or in a better case, no longer right, or B) things have changed, to break your investment thesis.

We continually critically examine our ideas and when necessary change.  Often times we do not get the results we want immediately with a company and have to critically examine our thesis, if we are still right, we keep it and continue the wait.  Two great examples of the wait paying off are Bank of America and Twilio. Bank of America took 4 years, Twilio 18 months – mostly underwater.  In both cases the companies did exactly what we wanted and our discipline paid off.

When training Rebecca, I have gone through  a lot of why we invested in certain spaces and sectors, and critically examined some of our previous investment ideas that aren’t performing well this year, and have found my resolve even more intact.

A couple Stocks having a tough year are Facebook, Alibiba, and Tencent.

These three examples from top to bottom are down – 26%, 35% and 25%.  Its very normal for these large firms to come across hard times in the stock price and changes in market sentiment, but one must also look at the results they deliver and will continue to deliver going forward, in that case, all these companies look really good.

It’s always a bumpy ride, think back to 2006 – Apple dropped by 41% that year top to bottom and those who were shaken off the puck missed another 10 bagger return over the next decade.

The ride is never completely smooth, headline risk exists and investors can easily get spooked on small thoughts missing the big picture of a companies potential.  We think the big picture for these companies remains very strong.

Chris

The information contained herein has been provided for information purposes only.  The information has been drawn from sources believed to be reliable.  Graphs, charts and other numbers are used for illustrative purposes only and do not reflect future values or future performance of any investment.  The information does not provide financial, legal, tax or investment advice.  Particular investment, tax, or trading strategies should be evaluated relative to each individual’s objectives and risk tolerance.  This does not constitute a recommendation or solicitation to buy or sell securities of any kind. Market conditions may change which may impact the information contained in this document.  Wellington-Altus Private Wealth Inc. (WAPW) does not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of the information contained herein, nor does WAPW assume any liability for any loss that may result from the reliance by any person upon any such information or opinions.  Before acting on any of the above, please contact me for individual financial advice based on your personal circumstances.  All insurance products and services are offered by life licensed advisors of Wellington-Altus insurance Inc. or other insurance companies separate from WAPW.  WAPW is a member of the Canadian Investor Protection Fund and the Investment Industry Regulatory Organization of Canada.