{"id":2622,"date":"2022-07-27T19:58:43","date_gmt":"2022-07-27T19:58:43","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/advisor.wellington-altus.ca\/thewonggroup\/?p=2622"},"modified":"2023-06-28T18:54:14","modified_gmt":"2023-06-28T18:54:14","slug":"mailis-market-update-summer-2022","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/advisor.wellington-altus.ca\/thewonggroup\/mailis-market-update-summer-2022\/","title":{"rendered":"Maili\u2019s Market Update Summer 2022"},"content":{"rendered":"<h1 style=\"text-align: center;\">Maili\u2019s Market Insights:<\/h1>\n<h2 style=\"text-align: center;\">Weathering the Current Storm \u2013 Summer update July 2022<\/h2>\n<p>Happy Summertime everyone! As we enter the summer months, my team at The Wong Group and I hope you and your family are healthy and well, amidst all that is going on in the world today. We wanted to proactively reach out and share with you our latest insights on:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>&#8211; The recent market volatility<\/li>\n<li>&#8211; The stock market<\/li>\n<li>&#8211; The bond market<\/li>\n<li>&#8211; Inflation<\/li>\n<li>&#8211; Recession \u2013 are we heading toward a recession?<\/li>\n<li>&#8211; What you can do as an investor<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><iframe src=\"https:\/\/player.vimeo.com\/video\/732557505?h=db05c9c092&amp;title=0&amp;byline=0&amp;portrait=0\" width=\"640\" height=\"360\" frameborder=\"0\" allowfullscreen=\"allowfullscreen\"><\/iframe><\/p>\n<p>Our clients value our team as a stabilizing force during turbulent times.\u00a0 This value has been more important than ever over the past two years, as the world experienced a global pandemic, and the investment markets underwent some tremendous volatility \u2013 causing people to feel vulnerable from both a health and wealth perspective.<\/p>\n<p>Fortunately, our team has been present, focused and prepared to apply our Smart Risk approach to navigating these choppy waters.<\/p>\n<p>Most recently, as the peak of the pandemic news fades from the headlines, other global events have found the spotlight in the news, including:<\/p>\n<ol>\n<li>1. Rising Interest Rates in US and Canada<\/li>\n<li>2. Inflation and<\/li>\n<li>3. Higher interest rates, potentially leading to a Recession<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n<p>All these issues are giving rise to market swings and renewed volatility over the past six months.\u00a0 But what I hope to discuss today, is why while market volatility can \u201cfeel\u201d uncomfortable to the average investor, it\u2019s very normal, and an expected part of investing.\u00a0 I\u2019ll show how we can take advantage of this volatility, on behalf of our clients to seize the opportunities.<\/p>\n<div id=\"viewer\" class=\"pdfViewer\">\n<div class=\"page\" data-page-number=\"1\" data-loaded=\"true\">\n<hr \/>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<div id=\"viewer\" class=\"pdfViewer\">\n<div class=\"page\" data-page-number=\"1\" data-loaded=\"true\">\n<h3><strong><u>Recent Market Volatility <\/u><\/strong><\/h3>\n<p><img fetchpriority=\"high\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone wp-image-2636 size-full\" src=\"https:\/\/advisor.wellington-altus.ca\/thewonggroup\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/31\/2022\/07\/apic.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1119\" height=\"622\" srcset=\"https:\/\/advisor.wellington-altus.ca\/thewonggroup\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/31\/2022\/07\/apic.png 1119w, https:\/\/advisor.wellington-altus.ca\/thewonggroup\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/31\/2022\/07\/apic-300x167.png 300w, https:\/\/advisor.wellington-altus.ca\/thewonggroup\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/31\/2022\/07\/apic-1024x569.png 1024w, https:\/\/advisor.wellington-altus.ca\/thewonggroup\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/31\/2022\/07\/apic-768x427.png 768w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 1119px) 100vw, 1119px\" \/><\/p>\n<p>So, let\u2019s address these key global events and market drivers directly:<\/p>\n<p>Markets have been volatile.\u00a0 From a Global Perspective, the broader markets \u2013 both stocks and bonds, have been down significantly this year. Most global equity markets like the S&amp;P500 and Nasdaq indexes have experienced drops of 20% to 30%, respectively, this calendar year. Bonds are down 10% year to date \u2013 remember, when interest rates rise, bond prices go down.\u00a0 Why have interest rates been rising?\u00a0 Central banks have been raising interest rates to fight Inflation, which reflects that the general level of prices of goods and services has increased 9.1% from last year.<\/p>\n<ol>\n<li style=\"list-style-type: none;\">\n<ol>\n<li>&#8211; In the past 6 months within many of our client portfolios, we have taken a more \u201cdefensive\u201d position, and managing risks to tilt portfolios toward \u201chigh quality\u201d companies with strong balance sheets, low debt, and steady cash flows that they often distribute as dividends. These dividends can help our clients get \u201cpaid to wait\u201d for the markets to recover.<\/li>\n<li>&#8211; We\u2019re also ready to start adding risk back to client portfolios, as sentiment indicators are at all-time lows, and valuations look compelling with good companies trading at 20% to 50% on sale!<\/li>\n<li>&#8211; As a fellow portfolio manager put it, \u2018the market is the only store where customers run out screaming when there is a big sale.\u2019<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<div id=\"viewer\" class=\"pdfViewer\">\n<div class=\"page\" data-page-number=\"1\" data-loaded=\"true\">\n<hr \/>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<h3><strong><u>A Rough Start to the Year<\/u><\/strong><\/h3>\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone wp-image-2605 size-full\" src=\"https:\/\/advisor.wellington-altus.ca\/thewonggroup\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/31\/2022\/07\/bpic.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1119\" height=\"625\" srcset=\"https:\/\/advisor.wellington-altus.ca\/thewonggroup\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/31\/2022\/07\/bpic.png 1119w, https:\/\/advisor.wellington-altus.ca\/thewonggroup\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/31\/2022\/07\/bpic-300x168.png 300w, https:\/\/advisor.wellington-altus.ca\/thewonggroup\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/31\/2022\/07\/bpic-1024x572.png 1024w, https:\/\/advisor.wellington-altus.ca\/thewonggroup\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/31\/2022\/07\/bpic-768x429.png 768w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 1119px) 100vw, 1119px\" \/><\/p>\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone wp-image-2606 size-full\" src=\"https:\/\/advisor.wellington-altus.ca\/thewonggroup\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/31\/2022\/07\/cpic.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1116\" height=\"627\" srcset=\"https:\/\/advisor.wellington-altus.ca\/thewonggroup\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/31\/2022\/07\/cpic.png 1116w, https:\/\/advisor.wellington-altus.ca\/thewonggroup\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/31\/2022\/07\/cpic-300x169.png 300w, https:\/\/advisor.wellington-altus.ca\/thewonggroup\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/31\/2022\/07\/cpic-1024x575.png 1024w, https:\/\/advisor.wellington-altus.ca\/thewonggroup\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/31\/2022\/07\/cpic-768x431.png 768w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 1116px) 100vw, 1116px\" \/><\/p>\n<p>As we know, it\u2019s been a rough start to the year for the global markets, and inflation is back in the headlines.\u00a0 My father Terry Wong says \u201cHey Mai, it was way worse back in the 70s and 80\u2019s\u201d. \u00a0Let\u2019s take a look at what happened during 1970s\u2026<\/p>\n<p>The first half of 1970 time period was similarly rough, as the Wall Street Journal put out \u201cMarkets have worst first half of the year in decades\u201d\u2026 \u00a0as you can see from this chart, it shows the first half of the year down significantly by about 20% much like today\u2026 but you don\u2019t hear the half of the story. The news media outlets play a big part; they love to hype up the numbers.<\/p>\n<p>But remember, when you read these stories, you often only get HALF the story, or the part that sells the most newspapers. \u00a0But in fact, for investors who remained patient, stuck with their investment plan, the back half of the year actually came out strong.<\/p>\n<p>As you can see from this chart, the back half of the year in 1970 reversed, and returned +29% for the S&amp;P500.\u00a0 That year ended up recovering and returned a net positive +4%! \u00a0Be wary of the doom and gloom headlines you read.<\/p>\n<p>Bottom line: this volatility is not new, and markets will eventually recover.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<div id=\"viewer\" class=\"pdfViewer\">\n<div class=\"page\" data-page-number=\"1\" data-loaded=\"true\">\n<hr \/>\n<\/div>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>Let\u2019s talk about Stock markets in more depth.<\/p>\n<div class=\"page\" data-page-number=\"1\" data-loaded=\"true\">\n<h3><strong><u>US Market Intra-Year Gains &amp; Declines VS Calendar Year Returns <\/u><\/strong><\/h3>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone wp-image-2607 size-full\" src=\"https:\/\/advisor.wellington-altus.ca\/thewonggroup\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/31\/2022\/07\/dpic.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1114\" height=\"628\" srcset=\"https:\/\/advisor.wellington-altus.ca\/thewonggroup\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/31\/2022\/07\/dpic.png 1114w, https:\/\/advisor.wellington-altus.ca\/thewonggroup\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/31\/2022\/07\/dpic-300x169.png 300w, https:\/\/advisor.wellington-altus.ca\/thewonggroup\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/31\/2022\/07\/dpic-1024x577.png 1024w, https:\/\/advisor.wellington-altus.ca\/thewonggroup\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/31\/2022\/07\/dpic-768x433.png 768w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 1114px) 100vw, 1114px\" \/><\/p>\n<p>In this chart, you are looking at the US stock market returns each year from 1979 to 2021, with the orange lines showing the year\u2019s Largest Intra-Year Decline; and the blue lines showing the Largest Intra-Year Gain.\u00a0 The yellow dots are showing the total year\u2019s annual returns, which are mostly positive.<\/p>\n<p>In several years, you see orange lines displaying large market drops during the year.\u00a0 But do these drops have any impact on the returns on that year? No, they actually don\u2019t; as you can see with most years having orange draw downs, the Yellow Circles representing the calendar year returns still end up in positive territory for the year.<\/p>\n<p>So, for any given year, you may have a big up and a big down, but just because there is a big down, it doesn\u2019t necessarily mean that\u2019s how it will shake out for the calendar year.<\/p>\n<p>While the market downturn of -20% this year may feel like the world is coming to an end, in fact, it\u2019s pretty normal.\u00a0 Did you know that over the past 40 years, there have been <strong>10 times where there has been a decline of at least 20%?<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/div>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<div id=\"viewer\" class=\"pdfViewer\">\n<div class=\"page\" data-page-number=\"1\" data-loaded=\"true\">\n<hr \/>\n<\/div>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<div class=\"page\" data-page-number=\"1\" data-loaded=\"true\">\n<h3><strong><u>Average Returns After Downturns have been Positive<\/u><\/strong><\/h3>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone wp-image-2638 size-full\" src=\"https:\/\/advisor.wellington-altus.ca\/thewonggroup\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/31\/2022\/07\/coolinginflation.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1118\" height=\"630\" srcset=\"https:\/\/advisor.wellington-altus.ca\/thewonggroup\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/31\/2022\/07\/coolinginflation.png 1118w, https:\/\/advisor.wellington-altus.ca\/thewonggroup\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/31\/2022\/07\/coolinginflation-300x169.png 300w, https:\/\/advisor.wellington-altus.ca\/thewonggroup\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/31\/2022\/07\/coolinginflation-1024x577.png 1024w, https:\/\/advisor.wellington-altus.ca\/thewonggroup\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/31\/2022\/07\/coolinginflation-768x433.png 768w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 1118px) 100vw, 1118px\" \/><\/p>\n<p>Let\u2019s take a look at all of those times we see a decline of 20%, and what happened next.\u00a0 What happens to the market after a downturn of more than 20%?<\/p>\n<p>The good news is that the future returns are quite good.\u00a0 On average over the past 40 years when the US market was down 20% or more, one year out, the market has recovered and gone up about 22%; 3 years out, 41%, and 5 years out, up 71%.<\/p>\n<p><strong><u>Fundamentally, as an investor, you must understand that risk and return are related.<\/u><\/strong><\/p>\n<p><strong><u>So, what about cashing out and waiting for the market to turnaround before buying back in?\u00a0 This is a dangerous tactic that we call trying to \u201ctime the market\u201d or \u201cmarket timing\u201d.<\/u><\/strong><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<div id=\"viewer\" class=\"pdfViewer\">\n<div class=\"page\" data-page-number=\"1\" data-loaded=\"true\">\n<hr \/>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<h3><strong><u>Missing the Best Consecutive Days<\/u><\/strong><\/h3>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone wp-image-2609 size-full\" src=\"https:\/\/advisor.wellington-altus.ca\/thewonggroup\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/31\/2022\/07\/fpic.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1113\" height=\"627\" srcset=\"https:\/\/advisor.wellington-altus.ca\/thewonggroup\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/31\/2022\/07\/fpic.png 1113w, https:\/\/advisor.wellington-altus.ca\/thewonggroup\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/31\/2022\/07\/fpic-300x169.png 300w, https:\/\/advisor.wellington-altus.ca\/thewonggroup\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/31\/2022\/07\/fpic-1024x577.png 1024w, https:\/\/advisor.wellington-altus.ca\/thewonggroup\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/31\/2022\/07\/fpic-768x433.png 768w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 1113px) 100vw, 1113px\" \/><\/p>\n<p>Let\u2019s just see what would happen if you couldn\u2019t stomach being in the market, and sold out into cash.\u00a0 In reality, it may feel good in the short term.\u00a0 You might feel some relief that you stopped the bleeding.\u00a0 However, the stress of fearing losses is quickly replaced by the fear of missing out on the market recovery.\u00a0 I\u2019ve seen it, I\u2019ve lived it, and I saw it as recently as during the Pandemic market downturn.<\/p>\n<p>Let\u2019s look the data to examine what happens if you did this, sold out into cash but missed out on some of the initial market recovery.<\/p>\n<p>If we look a 25-year period of being invested, if you were fully invested in the US equity market the entire time, you may have earned a +9.8% return.<\/p>\n<p>But what if you missed the best week, your return would be lowered to 9%.<\/p>\n<p>What if you missed the best month, best 3 months, and best 6 months? Your returns would be even lowered by 10%, 15%, and 20%, respectively.\u00a0 This is the COST of trying to time the market.<\/p>\n<p>Think of it this way.\u00a0 When you cash out and try to get back in at the right time, you have to make two important decisions perfectly right: 1. WHEN to pull out of the market, but equally, if not more challenging, is WHEN to get BACK into the market.\u00a0 The stress of getting back IN the market sometimes is even more stressful than being IN in the market.<\/p>\n<p>Just remember, markets can turn on a dime, and you see positive returns very quickly, both sooner and stronger than expected.\u00a0 In 2020, the market recovered even though we were still in the thick of a global pandemic and rolling lockdowns. It\u2019s not about timing the markets, but rather, TIME in the markets.<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<div id=\"viewer\" class=\"pdfViewer\">\n<div class=\"page\" data-page-number=\"1\" data-loaded=\"true\">\n<hr \/>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<h3><strong><u>Interest Rates Over Time<\/u><\/strong><\/h3>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone wp-image-2610 size-full\" src=\"https:\/\/advisor.wellington-altus.ca\/thewonggroup\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/31\/2022\/07\/gpic.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1115\" height=\"627\" srcset=\"https:\/\/advisor.wellington-altus.ca\/thewonggroup\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/31\/2022\/07\/gpic.png 1115w, https:\/\/advisor.wellington-altus.ca\/thewonggroup\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/31\/2022\/07\/gpic-300x169.png 300w, https:\/\/advisor.wellington-altus.ca\/thewonggroup\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/31\/2022\/07\/gpic-1024x576.png 1024w, https:\/\/advisor.wellington-altus.ca\/thewonggroup\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/31\/2022\/07\/gpic-768x432.png 768w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 1115px) 100vw, 1115px\" \/><\/p>\n<p><strong>Let\u2019s shift to the Bond Markets.<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>As mentioned earlier, the prices and markets for bonds have come down this year, in some cases almost as much as the equity markets!\u00a0 This is mainly due to the rising level of interest rates back towards pre-pandemic levels.<\/p>\n<p>As a refresher, when the pandemic hit in March 2020 and global economies were shut down amidst sudden lockdowns, Central Banks around the world tried to prevent economic collapse by responding with interest rate decreases.\u00a0 These rate decreases were like a shot of adrenaline administered to a sick patient \u2013 they act like a stimulus to keep the economy going by making it easier for individuals and businesses to borrow money, spend and grow the economy.<\/p>\n<p>Two years later, economies are recovering from the pandemic and therefore Central Banks are now raising interest rates back to pre-pandemic levels.\u00a0 Rising interest rates can cause volatility as the proverbial \u201cpunchbowl is removed from the party\u201d, making it tougher for folks to afford higher mortgage payments, and businesses facing higher borrowing costs.\u00a0 Remember, however, why interest rates are rising.\u00a0 It\u2019s because the economy is getting back to normal &#8211; as opposed to needing emergency support!\u00a0 Central Banks around the world did emergency rate cuts early on in the pandemic, to prevent a global scale financial crisis.\u00a0 Two years later, it\u2019s promising to see these emergency stimulus measures being removed.\u00a0 It\u2019s kind of like being able to remove the sick patient from life support \u2013 because the patient is fortunately showing signs of strength.\u00a0 Of course, it\u2019s often a choppy path when the stimulus is being removed, but\u2026 it\u2019s a sign of recovery\u2026and it also builds a margin of safety upon which to draw, if needed in the future.<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<div id=\"viewer\" class=\"pdfViewer\">\n<div class=\"page\" data-page-number=\"1\" data-loaded=\"true\">\n<hr \/>\n<p>Let\u2019s talk about Inflation.\u00a0 It\u2019s all over the headline and news that the most recent year over year general level of price increases, aka inflation, +9.1% (June 2022)<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>&#8211; What does this mean?\u00a0 This is ultimately what we are feeling right now.<\/li>\n<li>&#8211; To fill up your tank of gas with Regular, it will cost you your arm<\/li>\n<li>&#8211; To fill up your tank of gas with Premium, it will cost you your leg<\/li>\n<li>&#8211; At the Premium Plus, it will take your soul<\/li>\n<li>&#8211; At if you are filling up with diesel, say goodbye to your kids!<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-medium wp-image-3246\" src=\"https:\/\/advisor.wellington-altus.ca\/thewonggroup\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/31\/2022\/07\/hpic-copy-300x215.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"300\" height=\"215\" srcset=\"https:\/\/advisor.wellington-altus.ca\/thewonggroup\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/31\/2022\/07\/hpic-copy-300x215.jpg 300w, https:\/\/advisor.wellington-altus.ca\/thewonggroup\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/31\/2022\/07\/hpic-copy.jpg 600w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 300px) 100vw, 300px\" \/><\/p>\n<p>Jokes Aside.\u00a0 What does the Inflation expectation look like for the next year?<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<div id=\"viewer\" class=\"pdfViewer\">\n<div class=\"page\" data-page-number=\"1\" data-loaded=\"true\">\n<hr \/>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<h3><strong><u>US Breakeven Inflation Rate<\/u><\/strong><\/h3>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone wp-image-2612 size-full\" src=\"https:\/\/advisor.wellington-altus.ca\/thewonggroup\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/31\/2022\/07\/ipic.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1113\" height=\"626\" srcset=\"https:\/\/advisor.wellington-altus.ca\/thewonggroup\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/31\/2022\/07\/ipic.png 1113w, https:\/\/advisor.wellington-altus.ca\/thewonggroup\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/31\/2022\/07\/ipic-300x169.png 300w, https:\/\/advisor.wellington-altus.ca\/thewonggroup\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/31\/2022\/07\/ipic-1024x576.png 1024w, https:\/\/advisor.wellington-altus.ca\/thewonggroup\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/31\/2022\/07\/ipic-768x432.png 768w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 1113px) 100vw, 1113px\" \/><\/p>\n<p>Looking forward to over the next year, we actually think inflation is going to go down.\u00a0 In this chart, we look at inflation expectations, looking out one year from now and 30 years from now. Looking out to 30 years, inflation decreases.<\/p>\n<p>Markets are now expecting inflation to go down as pandemic-related supply chain issues start to ease, and as we roll over to compare year over year price level increases compared to today\u2019s levels, as opposed to last year when many economies were still fairly closed and travel had yet to open up again.<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<div id=\"viewer\" class=\"pdfViewer\">\n<div class=\"page\" data-page-number=\"1\" data-loaded=\"true\">\n<hr \/>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<h3><strong><u>Cooling Inflation Expectations?<\/u><\/strong><\/h3>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone wp-image-2613 size-full\" src=\"https:\/\/advisor.wellington-altus.ca\/thewonggroup\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/31\/2022\/07\/jpic.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1111\" height=\"625\" srcset=\"https:\/\/advisor.wellington-altus.ca\/thewonggroup\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/31\/2022\/07\/jpic.png 1111w, https:\/\/advisor.wellington-altus.ca\/thewonggroup\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/31\/2022\/07\/jpic-300x169.png 300w, https:\/\/advisor.wellington-altus.ca\/thewonggroup\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/31\/2022\/07\/jpic-1024x576.png 1024w, https:\/\/advisor.wellington-altus.ca\/thewonggroup\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/31\/2022\/07\/jpic-768x432.png 768w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 1111px) 100vw, 1111px\" \/><\/p>\n<p>New information comes out all the time. Markets started pricing in increases, which in this chart, peaked on March 25<sup>th<\/sup> due to the Ukraine\/Russian War which affected energy\/food\/supply prices affecting global trade.\u00a0 We already see inflation decreasing. Interestingly enough, month over month inflation figures are showing that Inflation is coming back down.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<div id=\"viewer\" class=\"pdfViewer\">\n<div class=\"page\" data-page-number=\"1\" data-loaded=\"true\">\n<hr \/>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<h3><strong><u>Will Inflation Hurt Stock Returns?<\/u><\/strong><\/h3>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone wp-image-2614 size-full\" src=\"https:\/\/advisor.wellington-altus.ca\/thewonggroup\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/31\/2022\/07\/kpic.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1114\" height=\"628\" srcset=\"https:\/\/advisor.wellington-altus.ca\/thewonggroup\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/31\/2022\/07\/kpic.png 1114w, https:\/\/advisor.wellington-altus.ca\/thewonggroup\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/31\/2022\/07\/kpic-300x169.png 300w, https:\/\/advisor.wellington-altus.ca\/thewonggroup\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/31\/2022\/07\/kpic-1024x577.png 1024w, https:\/\/advisor.wellington-altus.ca\/thewonggroup\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/31\/2022\/07\/kpic-768x433.png 768w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 1114px) 100vw, 1114px\" \/><\/p>\n<p><strong>Let\u2019s ask the real question \u2013 Do we think that diversified investment portfolios still make money during inflationary times?\u00a0 Yes.<\/strong><\/p>\n<p><strong>Will inflation hurt stock returns? Not Necessarily.<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>In this chart that shows the past 30 years, the yellow dots show the positive inflation rate that year, while the blue bars are the real return (return minus inflation) of the S&amp;P500.<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<div id=\"viewer\" class=\"pdfViewer\">\n<div class=\"page\" data-page-number=\"1\" data-loaded=\"true\">\n<hr \/>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<h3><strong><u>Will Inflation Hurt Stock Returns? Focusing on 1970s<\/u><\/strong><\/h3>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone wp-image-2615 size-full\" src=\"https:\/\/advisor.wellington-altus.ca\/thewonggroup\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/31\/2022\/07\/lpic.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1115\" height=\"629\" srcset=\"https:\/\/advisor.wellington-altus.ca\/thewonggroup\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/31\/2022\/07\/lpic.png 1115w, https:\/\/advisor.wellington-altus.ca\/thewonggroup\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/31\/2022\/07\/lpic-300x169.png 300w, https:\/\/advisor.wellington-altus.ca\/thewonggroup\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/31\/2022\/07\/lpic-1024x578.png 1024w, https:\/\/advisor.wellington-altus.ca\/thewonggroup\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/31\/2022\/07\/lpic-768x433.png 768w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 1115px) 100vw, 1115px\" \/><\/p>\n<p>How about during periods of HIGH inflation?\u00a0 Like the 1970\u2019s when Inflation was higher than average. As you can see, inflation didn\u2019t necessarily hurt the real returns on the US S&amp;P 500 index equity returns.<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<div id=\"viewer\" class=\"pdfViewer\">\n<div class=\"page\" data-page-number=\"1\" data-loaded=\"true\">\n<hr \/>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<h3><strong><u>Keeping it Real<\/u><\/strong><\/h3>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone wp-image-2616 size-full\" src=\"https:\/\/advisor.wellington-altus.ca\/thewonggroup\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/31\/2022\/07\/mpic.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1115\" height=\"625\" srcset=\"https:\/\/advisor.wellington-altus.ca\/thewonggroup\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/31\/2022\/07\/mpic.png 1115w, https:\/\/advisor.wellington-altus.ca\/thewonggroup\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/31\/2022\/07\/mpic-300x168.png 300w, https:\/\/advisor.wellington-altus.ca\/thewonggroup\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/31\/2022\/07\/mpic-1024x574.png 1024w, https:\/\/advisor.wellington-altus.ca\/thewonggroup\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/31\/2022\/07\/mpic-768x430.png 768w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 1115px) 100vw, 1115px\" \/><\/p>\n<p>Let\u2019s take a look at what did make money in years when Inflation was above the average level experienced over the past 95 years. How did different asset classes perform when there were high years of inflation?<\/p>\n<p>TBills = -0.8% this means T bills\/GIC\u2019s term deposits, cash alternative, after accounting for inflation, this asset class failed to keep pace with inflation.<\/p>\n<p>Govt\/Corporate Bonds = outperformed, this return is above and beyond inflation, but not by much<\/p>\n<p>Equity\/Stocks = a great way to outpace inflation, they\u2019ve done well, as you can see with the larger growth names and the smaller cap equity names.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<div id=\"viewer\" class=\"pdfViewer\">\n<div class=\"page\" data-page-number=\"1\" data-loaded=\"true\">\n<hr \/>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<h3><strong><u>Recession \/ Global Financial Crisis Example<\/u><\/strong><\/h3>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone wp-image-2617 size-full\" src=\"https:\/\/advisor.wellington-altus.ca\/thewonggroup\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/31\/2022\/07\/npic.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1118\" height=\"626\" srcset=\"https:\/\/advisor.wellington-altus.ca\/thewonggroup\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/31\/2022\/07\/npic.png 1118w, https:\/\/advisor.wellington-altus.ca\/thewonggroup\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/31\/2022\/07\/npic-300x168.png 300w, https:\/\/advisor.wellington-altus.ca\/thewonggroup\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/31\/2022\/07\/npic-1024x573.png 1024w, https:\/\/advisor.wellington-altus.ca\/thewonggroup\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/31\/2022\/07\/npic-768x430.png 768w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 1118px) 100vw, 1118px\" \/><\/p>\n<p>Lastly, I want to address the concerns about the R word \u2013 Recession.<\/p>\n<p>There has been a lot of talk in the media about the risks of a Recession, which means a slow down in the economy, and technically 2 consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth.\u00a0 The last major recession many of us experienced was back in the Global Financial Crisis of 2008, which took place between January 2007-Dec 2010.<\/p>\n<p>This chart shows you a growth of a $1 in stocks during this recessionary time period<\/p>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone wp-image-2618 size-full\" src=\"https:\/\/advisor.wellington-altus.ca\/thewonggroup\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/31\/2022\/07\/opic.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1115\" height=\"625\" srcset=\"https:\/\/advisor.wellington-altus.ca\/thewonggroup\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/31\/2022\/07\/opic.png 1115w, https:\/\/advisor.wellington-altus.ca\/thewonggroup\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/31\/2022\/07\/opic-300x168.png 300w, https:\/\/advisor.wellington-altus.ca\/thewonggroup\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/31\/2022\/07\/opic-1024x574.png 1024w, https:\/\/advisor.wellington-altus.ca\/thewonggroup\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/31\/2022\/07\/opic-768x430.png 768w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 1115px) 100vw, 1115px\" \/><\/p>\n<p>When was recession the Global Financial Crisis announced?<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>&#8211; In Dec 2008 we were told we were in a recession<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>When did it end?<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>&#8211; September 2010<\/li>\n<li>&#8211; Actually, they later told us that the recession started in 2007. But what does that mean to you?<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone wp-image-2619 size-full\" src=\"https:\/\/advisor.wellington-altus.ca\/thewonggroup\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/31\/2022\/07\/ppic.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1113\" height=\"627\" srcset=\"https:\/\/advisor.wellington-altus.ca\/thewonggroup\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/31\/2022\/07\/ppic.png 1113w, https:\/\/advisor.wellington-altus.ca\/thewonggroup\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/31\/2022\/07\/ppic-300x169.png 300w, https:\/\/advisor.wellington-altus.ca\/thewonggroup\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/31\/2022\/07\/ppic-1024x577.png 1024w, https:\/\/advisor.wellington-altus.ca\/thewonggroup\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/31\/2022\/07\/ppic-768x433.png 768w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 1113px) 100vw, 1113px\" \/><\/p>\n<div id=\"viewer\" class=\"pdfViewer\">\n<p>Remember, a Recession means 2 negative quarters of GDP growth. Often times, by the time economists have officially stated that the economy is in Recession, we may already be out of it as they are often short-lived.\u00a0 Markets are instantly pricing this new information into the market constantly.\u00a0 A good example was the recent recession in 2020, but it was short-lived.<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<div id=\"viewer\" class=\"pdfViewer\">\n<div class=\"page\" data-page-number=\"1\" data-loaded=\"true\">\n<hr \/>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<h3><strong><u>Global Pandemic Recession \u2013 January 2020-Dec 2020<\/u><\/strong><\/h3>\n<p>Are we currently in a recession? We don\u2019t know yet. What we do know is that recessions are not new, they may look different and be triggered by different causes, but that life and the economy still moves onward and upward. In fact, over the past 100 years, there have been <strong><u>16 US recessions and every one of them has led to a strong recovery. <\/u><\/strong>We need to come back to the fundamental principles.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<div id=\"viewer\" class=\"pdfViewer\">\n<div class=\"page\" data-page-number=\"1\" data-loaded=\"true\">\n<hr \/>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<h3><strong><u>Markets have Rewarded Discipline \/ Chart<\/u><\/strong><\/h3>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone wp-image-2620 size-full\" src=\"https:\/\/advisor.wellington-altus.ca\/thewonggroup\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/31\/2022\/07\/qpic.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1115\" height=\"625\" srcset=\"https:\/\/advisor.wellington-altus.ca\/thewonggroup\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/31\/2022\/07\/qpic.png 1115w, https:\/\/advisor.wellington-altus.ca\/thewonggroup\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/31\/2022\/07\/qpic-300x168.png 300w, https:\/\/advisor.wellington-altus.ca\/thewonggroup\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/31\/2022\/07\/qpic-1024x574.png 1024w, https:\/\/advisor.wellington-altus.ca\/thewonggroup\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/31\/2022\/07\/qpic-768x430.png 768w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 1115px) 100vw, 1115px\" \/><\/p>\n<p><strong><u>So bottom line, here are some important things to remember:<\/u><\/strong><\/p>\n<ol>\n<li>1. Markets Reward Discipline:\n<ol>\n<li>&#8211; Don\u2019t fall victim to emotions that may nag you to do something you may regret later. Stay disciplined and invest for the long term.<\/li>\n<li>&#8211; Yes, Global events have a near term and sometimes uncomfortable impact on stock prices. \u201cHow much\u201d, \u201cwhen\u201d, and \u201cWhat Direction\u201d is uncertain, but what we observe is stock markets recover from negative events, and often recover sooner than you think or before the bad news is over. For instance, in the early stages of the COVID 19 pandemic \u2013 the market fell 37% within a short period of time, but then rebounded faster than most expected and well before the pandemic was over.<\/li>\n<li><strong>&#8211; <u>Managing uncertainty is why investors get rewarded with higher returns over time.<\/u><\/strong><\/li>\n<\/ol>\n<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<ol>\n<li>2. It\u2019s not about TIMING the Market, it\u2019s about Time IN the market:\n<ol>\n<li>&#8211; Don\u2019t get seduced by trying to cash out and then buy back in at a more opportune time. For a successful market timing trade to take place, the investor must know exactly when to exit the market, and ALSO exactly when to re-enter the market. This mathematically reduces the probability of investing success. And let\u2019s be honest, watching a subsequent rebound in the markets from the sideline can often be just as stressful as watching the initial market decline.<\/li>\n<li><strong>&#8211; <u>A disciplined investor looks beyond the concerns of today to the long-term growth potential of markets.<\/u><\/strong><\/li>\n<\/ol>\n<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<div id=\"viewer\" class=\"pdfViewer\">\n<div class=\"page\" data-page-number=\"1\" data-loaded=\"true\">\n<hr \/>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<h3><strong><u>Remember, Average Returns after markets have been POSITIVE<\/u><\/strong><\/h3>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone wp-image-2638 size-full\" src=\"https:\/\/advisor.wellington-altus.ca\/thewonggroup\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/31\/2022\/07\/coolinginflation.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1118\" height=\"630\" srcset=\"https:\/\/advisor.wellington-altus.ca\/thewonggroup\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/31\/2022\/07\/coolinginflation.png 1118w, https:\/\/advisor.wellington-altus.ca\/thewonggroup\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/31\/2022\/07\/coolinginflation-300x169.png 300w, https:\/\/advisor.wellington-altus.ca\/thewonggroup\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/31\/2022\/07\/coolinginflation-1024x577.png 1024w, https:\/\/advisor.wellington-altus.ca\/thewonggroup\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/31\/2022\/07\/coolinginflation-768x433.png 768w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 1118px) 100vw, 1118px\" \/><\/p>\n<p>History has shown, when markets are down 20%, one year out, on average, you are up about 22%; 3 years out, 41%, and 5 years out, up 71%.<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<div id=\"viewer\" class=\"pdfViewer\">\n<div class=\"page\" data-page-number=\"1\" data-loaded=\"true\">\n<hr \/>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<h3><strong><u>Focus on What You Can Control<\/u><\/strong><\/h3>\n<ul>\n<li>1. Create an investment plan to fit your needs and risk tolerance<\/li>\n<li>2. Structure a portfolio along the dimensions of expected returns<\/li>\n<li>3. Diverse globally in high quality growth assets\n<ol>\n<li>a. Our Smart Risk approach builds a diversified portfolio of asset classes for you, all of which react differently to evolving market conditions. Diversifying across asset classes and across geographies, sectors and businesses helps provide strong defense against major global events, while also retaining the valuable upside.<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n<\/li>\n<li>4. Uncertainty and returns are related \u2013 consider market dips as opportunities to buy high quality assets \u201con sale\u201d<\/li>\n<li>5. Stay disciplined through market dips and swings<\/li>\n<li>6. Look beyond the headlines \u2013 there could be more than what the media tells you<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<h4 style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong>Logic + Evidence + Diversification + Long-Term Approach = Smart Risk<\/strong><\/h4>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>We\u2019ve been through tough times before and thank you for trusting our process.\u00a0 As always, we are present, focused and prepared to help you, your loved ones, and your portfolio stay resilient and well-positioned to take advantage of the opportunities at hand.<\/p>\n<p>If you\u2019d like to meet with me or one of my associates, please contact us at 778 655 2410 or through our website at <a href=\"http:\/\/www.thewonggroup.ca\">www.thewonggroup.ca<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p>I look forward to connecting with you again soon. Thank you.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<h2>Maili Wong, CFA, CFP, FEA<\/h2>\n<h3>Senior Portfolio Manager, Senior Wealth Advisor<\/h3>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>The information contained herein has been provided for information purposes only.\u00a0 The information has been drawn from sources believed to be reliable.\u00a0 Graphs, charts and other numbers are used for illustrative purposes only and do not reflect future values or future performance of any investment.\u00a0 The information does not provide financial, legal, tax or investment advice.\u00a0 Particular investment, tax, or trading strategies should be evaluated relative to each individual\u2019s objectives and risk tolerance.\u00a0 This does not constitute a recommendation or solicitation to buy or sell securities of any kind. Market conditions may change which may impact the information contained in this document. \u00a0Wellington-Altus Private Wealth Inc. (WAPW) does not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of the information contained herein, nor does WAPW assume any liability for any loss that may result from the reliance by any person upon any such information or opinions.\u00a0 Before acting on any of the above, please contact your financial advisor.\u00a0 WAPW is a member of the Canadian Investor Protection Fund and the Investment Industry Regulatory Organization of Canada.<\/p>\n<p>\u00a9 2022, Wellington-Altus Private Wealth Inc.\u00a0 ALL RIGHTS RESERVED.\u00a0 NO USE OR REPRODUCTION WITHOUT PERMISSION.<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"http:\/\/www.wellington-altus.ca\">www.wellington-altus.ca<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Maili\u2019s Market Insights: Weathering the Current Storm \u2013 Summer update July 2022 Happy Summertime everyone! As we enter the summer months, my team at The Wong Group and I hope you and your family are healthy and well, amidst all that is going on in the world today. We wanted to proactively reach out and [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":85,"featured_media":2640,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_oasis_is_in_workflow":0,"_oasis_original":0,"_oasis_task_priority":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[15],"tags":[466,468,452,469,453,109,470,434,129,465,454,436,467,222,455,464,451],"class_list":["post-2622","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-videos","tag-bond-market","tag-calendar-year","tag-current-storm","tag-downturns","tag-financial-advise","tag-inflation","tag-inflation-rate","tag-interest-rate","tag-investing","tag-investor","tag-market-updates","tag-recession","tag-rough-start","tag-stock-market","tag-summer-2022","tag-volatility","tag-weathering-the-current"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.3 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ 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