{"id":1259,"date":"2025-02-14T17:48:40","date_gmt":"2025-02-14T17:48:40","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/advisor.wellington-altus.ca\/trivestwealthcounsel\/?p=1259"},"modified":"2025-02-21T19:03:32","modified_gmt":"2025-02-21T19:03:32","slug":"february-2025-finding-the-right-balance","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/advisor.wellington-altus.ca\/trivestwealthcounsel\/february-2025-finding-the-right-balance\/","title":{"rendered":"February 2025: FINDING THE RIGHT BALANCE"},"content":{"rendered":"<h3><span style=\"font-size: 10pt;color: #000000\"><b>INSIDE<\/b><\/span><\/h3>\n<h3><span style=\"font-size: 10pt\"><strong>The return of market volatility<\/strong><\/span><\/h3>\n<p><span style=\"font-size: 10pt\">Markets have been overly volatile this month thanks to global trade war threats coming out of the U.S. Pair this with unexpected U.S. earnings reports and we are witnessing some large daily moves especially in the <a href=\"https:\/\/pbs.twimg.com\/media\/GjNEHLOXgAAIlYN?format=jpg&amp;name=900x900\">highly valued<\/a> tech-heavy market. For example, did you know that <a href=\"https:\/\/pbs.twimg.com\/media\/Gi8JwZGWgAEc8yk?format=png&amp;name=medium\">the S&amp;P 500 Tech sector<\/a> has wiped out its entire post-election gain and has gone nowhere since last June?<\/span><\/p>\n<h3><strong><span style=\"font-size: 10pt\">Important changes being made to client portfolios<\/span><\/strong><\/h3>\n<p><span style=\"font-size: 10pt\">We\u2019ve been very busy trading portfolios over the past few weeks. Overall, we liken today\u2019s environment to entering the third period of a hockey game with a lot of goals over the first two periods and suddenly the other team is coming out swinging. Therefore, now is not the time to go on the offence and onboard more risk but rather play a bit more of what is called the neutral zone trap by protecting the gains and looking for opportunities to selectively strike.<\/span><\/p>\n<h3><span style=\"font-size: 10pt\"><strong>Some exciting new trades<\/strong><\/span><\/h3>\n<p><span style=\"font-size: 10pt\">Just recently we also derisked our energy exposure by selling half of our exposure, locking in some large gains. We then replaced it with a U.S. dollar note on energy stocks that has a 20 per cent annual coupon paired with 40 per cent downside exposure. These are just a few of the many trades done and so please read on in the rest of this report to find out more about the trades we\u2019ve implemented within client portfolios directly and\/or within our fund.<\/span><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<h2><span style=\"font-size: 14pt\"><strong>February 2025: FINDING THE RIGHT BALANCE<\/strong><\/span><\/h2>\n<p><span style=\"font-size: 10pt\">Welcome to this month\u2019s Market Strategy. In this edition we share our latest views on the market along with how we\u2019re positioned strategically.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-size: 10pt\">Markets have been overly volatile this month thanks to global trade war threats coming out of the U.S. Pair this with unexpected U.S. earnings reports and we are witnessing some large daily moves.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-size: 10pt\">We certainly haven\u2019t been sitting idle. Overall, we liken today\u2019s current environment to entering the third period of a hockey game with a lot of goals over the first two periods and suddenly the other team is coming out swinging. Therefore, now is not the time to go on the offence and onboard more risk but rather play a bit more of what is called the neutral zone trap by protecting the gains and looking for opportunities to selectively strike.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-size: 10pt\">For example, we\u2019ve been very busy trading client portfolios over the past few weeks taking advantage of the 30-day tariff reprieve. This involved reducing our large S&amp;P 500 exposure, as its top tech holdings have some exposure to the tariff risks. \u00a0We then replaced it with a fully protected, costless covered call strategy on the Russell 2000 along with moving into some attractively valued segments within the U.S. market that includes names like Berkshire Hathaway. \u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-size: 10pt\">We are also derisking our energy exposure by selling half of our exposure, locking in some large gains. We then replaced it with a U.S.-dollar note that has a 20 per cent annual coupon paired with 40 per cent downside exposure.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-size: 10pt\">These are just a few of the many trades done and so please read on in the rest of this report to find out more about the strategies we\u2019ve implemented alongside some in-depth analysis of the market and our positioning. Martin is also travelling out to Vienna at the end of the month at the behest of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and will report back on any interesting insight on the global energy markets.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-size: 10pt\">Thank you for reading, and please feel free to reach out to any of our team members should you have any comments or questions about markets, your portfolio or just wanting to catch up. All the best, and keep investing wisely!<\/span><\/p>\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignleft wp-image-872 \" src=\"https:\/\/advisor.wellington-altus.ca\/trivestwealthcounsel\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/119\/2024\/10\/Screenshot-2024-10-28-081020-300x51.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"206\" height=\"35\" srcset=\"https:\/\/advisor.wellington-altus.ca\/trivestwealthcounsel\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/119\/2024\/10\/Screenshot-2024-10-28-081020-300x51.png 300w, https:\/\/advisor.wellington-altus.ca\/trivestwealthcounsel\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/119\/2024\/10\/Screenshot-2024-10-28-081020.png 338w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 206px) 100vw, 206px\" \/><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<h2><span style=\"font-size: 14pt\"><strong>Asset allocation changes and the region-beta paradox<\/strong><\/span><\/h2>\n<p><span style=\"font-size: 10pt\">Risk is truly a four-letter word and the nature of it, like our perception of reality, depends on where you are standing.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-size: 10pt\">Some of us actively seek it out while many of us fall privy to what is called the region-beta paradox as we recently learned from an investment class Martin\u2019s son is taking at the University of Calgary, that just so happens to be taught by a friend of ours. This paradox is that we often tolerate mediocrity and not-too-bad situations to avoid change, growth and the rewards that come with it.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-size: 10pt\">Perhaps this is what Nassim Taleb meant when we said that \u201cthe three most harmful addictions are heroin, carbohydrates, and a monthly salary.\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-size: 10pt\">When it comes to managing risk, TriVest\u2019s entire philosophy and approach is built around goals-based investing. This means focusing in on a specific target return for each client depending on their own financial goals and objectives and then adjusting the risk level given conditions of the market and their overall tolerance for it.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-size: 10pt\">Since the types of clients we work with generated substantial wealth by taking a lot of risk as entrepreneurs or professionals there usually isn\u2019t a huge appetite for risk-taking as they approach retirement or are already in it. Therefore, obtaining a 6 to 8 per cent annual return while mitigating the ups and downs of the market is plenty enough to meet lifestyle spending requirements and leaving a large inheritance to their family and\/or to charity.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-size: 10pt\">As a result,\u00a0we have little desire for levered beta plays like cryptos or chasing high flying U.S. tech that also comes with a lot of volatility, meaning downside risk that matches upside potential. However, we have to be especially careful not to fall privy to the region-beta paradox such as the traditional, passive 60\/40 portfolio and settling for mediocre returns.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-size: 10pt\">This means it is important for us to adjust risk levels based on the market environment allowing us to participate in broader market rallies like we\u2019ve witnessed over the past two years and minimizing the impact of a correction such as in 2022.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-size: 10pt\">We are not implying one should try to time the market such as moving to cash as there is all kinds of evidence showing this is impossible to do. That said, things like the options market tell you a lot about the environment you are in and provides the ability to add insurance when it is inexpensive, and when you think don\u2019t you need it.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-size: 10pt\">Today, surprisingly market participants are not overly concerned about the numerous uncertainties around global trade wars being initiated along with heightened geopolitical uncertainty.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-size: 10pt\">Corporate bond spreads are at ultra-low levels, high yield or junk bond prices are approaching new highs, U.S. tech companies are trading at levels not seen since the dot.com bubble, and investors are buying every dip on the S&amp;P 500 despite historical data telling you that based on current multiples the forward annualized 10-year return has been paltry +\/- 2 per cent. By-the-way, this doesn\u2019t imply flat markets over this entire period but rather the high probability for a sizable correction.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-size: 10pt\">There is a time to add risk and a time not to, and we think now is not the time. For those that follow hockey, we\u2019re coming out of some solid wins over the last two periods and why not play a little more defensive heading into the third period?<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-size: 10pt\">We call this our trap zone investment strategy aiming for as much downside protection as possible so that we can secure the past two years of solid returns while still being able to participate in the market upside this year with a targeted mid-to-high single digit return.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-size: 10pt\">For example, the current level of complacency allowed us to put a trade on the Russell 2000 index where the insurance was so cheap that we were able to fully protect the downside with 15 per cent capped upside through to this fall.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-size: 10pt\">We also sold nearly our entire tech-heavy S&amp;P 500 exposure locking in some excellent returns and replaced it with U.S. value stocks via a diversified exchange-traded fund holding companies such as Berkshire Hathaway Inc., JPMorgan Chase &amp; Co., Broadcom Inc., Exxon Mobil Corp., and UnitedHealth Group Inc. Overall, we worry that tariffs have the potential to really hurt many of the companies dominating the S&amp;P 500. So far this trade has yielded nearly two times the return of the S&amp;P 500, and isn\u2019t selling off nearly as much on the U.S. announcing tariffs.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-size: 10pt\">In regards to the Canadian-energy heavy market, who knows where global energy markets will settle out as U.S. President Donald Trump is going after Iran with strong sanctions which would send oil prices higher, but the Russia-Ukraine war could be dealt with, resulting in more Russian barrels and lower oil prices. Unfortunately, there remains added tariff risk as we only have one market to send our oil to.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-size: 10pt\">Now that we\u2019ve been given a month to get things sorted out before the tariffs kick in, why not use it to also re-risk? For example, we locked in some very large gains on our energy companies reducing our long exposure by half and replaced it with a U.S. dollar denominated structured note that has 40 per cent downside protection and, should they trade positive in a year, we obtain a 20 per cent coupon. We did a similar trade on Canadian pipeline and utility companies but with a geared 30 per cent downside, and a 14 to 15 per cent coupon.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><img fetchpriority=\"high\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter wp-image-1262 size-full\" src=\"https:\/\/advisor.wellington-altus.ca\/trivestwealthcounsel\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/119\/2025\/02\/Picture1-1.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1119\" height=\"386\" srcset=\"https:\/\/advisor.wellington-altus.ca\/trivestwealthcounsel\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/119\/2025\/02\/Picture1-1.png 1119w, https:\/\/advisor.wellington-altus.ca\/trivestwealthcounsel\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/119\/2025\/02\/Picture1-1-300x103.png 300w, https:\/\/advisor.wellington-altus.ca\/trivestwealthcounsel\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/119\/2025\/02\/Picture1-1-1024x353.png 1024w, https:\/\/advisor.wellington-altus.ca\/trivestwealthcounsel\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/119\/2025\/02\/Picture1-1-768x265.png 768w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 1119px) 100vw, 1119px\" \/><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-size: 10pt\">We have also been adding to our U.S. dollar exposure for our clients as our dollar rallied back to near 70 cents on the 30-day delay in tariffs. However, should there be a resumption in the sell-off we may look to convert some back into Canadian dollars for a hefty profit.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-size: 10pt\">These are just a few of the many strategies we\u2019ve deployed, but hopefully demonstrate that there is value in managing risk in one\u2019s portfolio. Just like in life there is a good time to eat carbohydrates but we tend to save them for after a long hard day of skiing without injury or winning that third period of a hockey game.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-size: 10pt\">For those wanting more details on these trades and our strategic positioning, Martin had an in depth chat via Amber Kanwar\u2019s In The Money Podcast:<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-size: 10pt\"><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"wp-image-1263 size-medium alignnone\" src=\"https:\/\/advisor.wellington-altus.ca\/trivestwealthcounsel\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/119\/2025\/02\/Picture2-300x300.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"300\" height=\"300\" srcset=\"https:\/\/advisor.wellington-altus.ca\/trivestwealthcounsel\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/119\/2025\/02\/Picture2-300x300.jpg 300w, https:\/\/advisor.wellington-altus.ca\/trivestwealthcounsel\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/119\/2025\/02\/Picture2-150x150.jpg 150w, https:\/\/advisor.wellington-altus.ca\/trivestwealthcounsel\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/119\/2025\/02\/Picture2.jpg 547w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 300px) 100vw, 300px\" \/><\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-size: 10pt\">YouTube: <a href=\"https:\/\/youtube.com\/watch?v=F7t27LBKifE\u2026\">https:\/\/youtube.com\/watch?v=F7t27LBKifE\u2026<\/a><\/span><\/p>\n<h2><span style=\"font-size: 14pt\"><strong>A closer look at potential rip tides in the market<\/strong><\/span><\/h2>\n<p><span style=\"font-size: 10pt\">When caught in a rip tide, every instinct is to fight the current, which is exactly the wrong thing to do. Instead, one has to not panic and swim parallel to the shore to get out of trouble.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-size: 10pt\">This is why we strongly believe this is the same approach Canadians need to take when dealing with the recent U.S. protectionist threats as ignoring the problem isn\u2019t going to help, nor is trying to fight it. Instead look for a safe way out by remaining calm and calculating.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-size: 10pt\">Martin\u2019s daily living motto involves constantly reminding himself that outside of health and tragic events, most things happen FOR you, not TO you. When trouble hits we can go to the default 1) poor me or 2) blame them, or we can be brave enough to move immediately to 3) what am I going to do about it?<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-size: 10pt\">The same exercise should be done with managing our investment portfolios, as many of us have also become over-reliant on U.S. stock markets. These are looking a little long in the tooth with record setting valuations no longer backstopped by fundamentals and facing some serious threats from the Trump administration\u2019s actions.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-size: 10pt\">Take a look at Apple Inc. Its <a href=\"https:\/\/urldefense.com\/v3\/__https:\/pbs.twimg.com\/media\/GiktE5lW8AAxdm0?format=jpg&amp;name=large__;!!MtWvt2UVEQ!D867uHOwsxLeAEmHqh0gnKBPNzsbzcJa0jd69-Q4L4FzdnZ7u_oJp8MI4kisPjG52MVKjODvzNUx68zfaUVJwcX6rR910jpXNpDjAA$\">revenue growth has been fairly flat<\/a>\u00a0since September 2021 and yet its share price is up just over 60 per cent. As a result, it is trading at all-time highs representing nearly 10 times sales and 40 times earnings. The company also has <a href=\"https:\/\/urldefense.com\/v3\/__https:\/www.statista.com\/statistics\/382288\/geographical-region-share-of-revenue-of-apple\/?locale=en__;!!MtWvt2UVEQ!D867uHOwsxLeAEmHqh0gnKBPNzsbzcJa0jd69-Q4L4FzdnZ7u_oJp8MI4kisPjG52MVKjODvzNUx68zfaUVJwcX6rR910jrGtcwuGw$\">\u00a056 per cent<\/a>\u00a0of its sales coming from outside of the Americas. <a href=\"https:\/\/urldefense.com\/v3\/__https:\/pbs.twimg.com\/media\/GijgRK1XQAYf8Zq?format=png&amp;name=small__;!!MtWvt2UVEQ!D867uHOwsxLeAEmHqh0gnKBPNzsbzcJa0jd69-Q4L4FzdnZ7u_oJp8MI4kisPjG52MVKjODvzNUx68zfaUVJwcX6rR910jpWC5tqEw$\">Take a look at Telsa<\/a>\u00a0Inc. Its share price gained 63 per cent in 2024 and its revenue only grew one per cent. <a href=\"https:\/\/urldefense.com\/v3\/__https:\/worldpopulationreview.com\/country-rankings\/tesla-sales-by-country__;!!MtWvt2UVEQ!D867uHOwsxLeAEmHqh0gnKBPNzsbzcJa0jd69-Q4L4FzdnZ7u_oJp8MI4kisPjG52MVKjODvzNUx68zfaUVJwcX6rR910joF4cQFTw$\">51 per cent<\/a>\u00a0of its total sales outside of the U.S.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/pbs.twimg.com\/media\/GjJaxUNWIAAPsEK?format=jpg&amp;name=4096x4096\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter wp-image-1264 size-full\" src=\"https:\/\/advisor.wellington-altus.ca\/trivestwealthcounsel\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/119\/2025\/02\/Picture3.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"1390\" height=\"869\" srcset=\"https:\/\/advisor.wellington-altus.ca\/trivestwealthcounsel\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/119\/2025\/02\/Picture3.jpg 1390w, https:\/\/advisor.wellington-altus.ca\/trivestwealthcounsel\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/119\/2025\/02\/Picture3-300x188.jpg 300w, https:\/\/advisor.wellington-altus.ca\/trivestwealthcounsel\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/119\/2025\/02\/Picture3-1024x640.jpg 1024w, https:\/\/advisor.wellington-altus.ca\/trivestwealthcounsel\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/119\/2025\/02\/Picture3-768x480.jpg 768w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 1390px) 100vw, 1390px\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-size: 10pt\">We really do worry that the U.S. market has the potential to be what we call \u201cTrumped,\u201d with global tariffs having the potential to be a black swan event. We are not alone, as David Rosenberg recently posted:<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-size: 10pt\"><em>\u201cIt is interesting to look at U.S. equity futures and see that the launching of this trade war is so far being treated no differently than the initial reaction to DeepSeek. The lack of panic tells me that investors expect this tariff file to be resolved quickly. Room here for disappointment when you look at the real reason for the trade action \u2013 to defray the cost of the Trump tax-cut agenda.\u201d<\/em><\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-size: 10pt\">However, most strategists are recommending tobuy the dip. But this is ignoring the risk that Trump\u2019s actions have the potential to be a material change in the global economy of which the U.S. is a large part. Trump has now thrown a giant wrench into the cogs of international trade and commerce and the longer it stays in, the greater the chance something will break. This is a scenario few market participants are considering.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-size: 10pt\">This brings us to a saying we live by when managing portfolios. You can live by the sword and die by the sword, or you can diversify. However, we currently live in a world where many are telling you diversification is bad.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-size: 10pt\">Why own bonds when they\u2019ve performed so poorly? Why own international markets when they\u2019ve paled in comparison to U.S. markets? Heck, even the mighty S&amp;P 500 has thrown in the towel as the Magnificent Seven tech stocks now represent over one-third of the index, up from a fifth of the index two years ago.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-size: 10pt\">Can it really be that easy?<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-size: 10pt\">In the context of the market action over the past 10 years, apparently it is. The near 20 per cent drop in the S&amp;P 500 in 2020 seems like a distant memory, given two back-to-back years of more than 20 per cent gains.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-size: 10pt\">Investors who diversified may have achieved decent returns with less variability, but I fear that they may capitulate to the mantra that U.S. tech stocks only go up and wonder why they should own anything else?<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-size: 10pt\">The problem is that markets have cycles, and you better get the timing right if going all-in.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-size: 10pt\">For example, in the decade following the dotcom bubble bursting,\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/financialpost.com\/tag\/tech-sector\/\">U.S. tech stocks<\/a>\u00a0got pummelled. They contributed less and less to the S&amp;P 500, resulting in some material underperformance of the index. Meanwhile, the Chinese infrastructure boom and the corresponding bull run in commodities resulted in outstanding performance in resource-based stock markets such as in Canada or emerging markets. It, too, at that time was the only place to be and many investors wondered why they would own anything else.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-size: 10pt\">The best solution for high prices is high prices. Rocketing oil prices rapidly incentivized U.S. shale development, which flooded the market with oil, resulting in an OPEC price war and the resulting end of the bull run in oil. At the same time, the China story unravelled as the country took on too much debt and overbuilt.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-size: 10pt\">This is called disruption.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-size: 10pt\">A swift mean reversion leaves many who got the timing wrong with a lot of damage and their portfolio can take a long time to recover. This is why you diversify as you get older, as having a large position losing 17 per cent in one day can become unbearable, despite the promise of continued high double-digit returns.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-size: 10pt\">Remember this whenever hearing strategists talk only about highly volatile investments, such as cryptocurrencies and tech stocks. Sure, these could play some part in a portfolio and certainly make for a great narrative but could lead you straight into another rip tide.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-size: 10pt\">Instead, we think the focus really should be on ways to generate targeted returns to meet financial goals and objectives while mitigating the risk.<\/span><\/p>\n<h2><span style=\"font-size: 14pt\"><strong>It is all relative, or is it?<br \/>\n<\/strong><\/span><\/h2>\n<p><span style=\"font-size: 10pt\">\u201cA<em> flower does not think of competing with the flower next to it. It just blooms.\u201d<\/em> &#8211; Zen Shin<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-size: 10pt\">One of the more important lessons we\u2019ve learned over the years is that the value of a dollar is relative. Human psychology plays a huge role, often leading to emotion overruling logic. This is because money is used as a measure of fairness and so we make comparisons in the determination of its value.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-size: 10pt\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.sciencedirect.com\/science\/article\/pii\/S0167268198000894\">A study<\/a>\u00a0by Solnick and Hemenway asked participants to choose between two options: A. You earn a yearly salary of $50,000 while others earn $25,000. Or B. You earn a salary of $100,000 while others earn $200,000.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-size: 10pt\">Interestingly, half of the participants choose the first option, which makes no sense whatsoever. For many of us, we would prefer to live in a world where we earned half of what we could, as long as we were earning more than others.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-size: 10pt\">A great real-life example is the recent emergence of the notion of \u201cour fair share.\u201d We have seen this over the past few years, via members of the public service or academia giving policy recommendations to the federal government advocating punitive tax changes affecting higher earners, including doctors or small and medium business owners.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-size: 10pt\">The problem is that often in order to make a higher income, people need to take on risk that those making a safer but lower paying salary may not be comfortable doing.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-size: 10pt\">When we look at investing, these notions of risk and comparison to others both play an important role.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-size: 10pt\">This is the problem of benchmarking when it comes to investing.\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/financialpost.com\/tag\/investors\/\">Investors<\/a>\u00a0are heavily swayed by whichever segment of the global market is performing the best, in spite of those fine print warnings that past performance does not indicate future results. Risk and reward are suddenly no longer part of the equation.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-size: 10pt\">We find that the entrepreneurs have an excellent understanding of this relationship, having learned through direct experience. They have charted their own course independent of everyone else by setting their own individual targets based on their perceived risks weighed against the upside potential.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-size: 10pt\">It\u2019s no different when\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/financialpost.com\/tag\/portfolio-management\/\">managing portfolios<\/a>. Our \u201cgoals-based\u201d approach means that we can avoid the risks that come with performance chasing. Doing an investment review suddenly means looking at the performance with a different set of eyes by asking if the pre-set goals are being achieved rather than if they beat everyone else.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-size: 10pt\">For example, in the old days when interest rates were much higher, it wasn\u2019t uncommon to do a laddered\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/financialpost.com\/tag\/Guaranteed-Investment-Certificates\/\">Guaranteed Investment Certificate<\/a>\u00a0(GIC) strategy that would yield six to eight per cent. If this was even an option today, I\u2019m sure it would encompass a large part of our portfolios given the nature of many of our clients. However, this would mean not allowing two back-to-back strong years in equity markets to influence our asset allocations, which can be a very tough thing to do.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-size: 10pt\">Unfortunately, the days of high paying GIC rates are long gone, but the good news is that there are other vehicles such as structured notes that can achieve these targets, albeit with\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/financialpost.com\/tag\/risk\/\">more risk<\/a>\u00a0than GICs but a lot less than\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/financialpost.com\/tag\/global-equities\/\">global equities<\/a>.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-size: 10pt\">This doesn\u2019t mean that by adopting such an approach there isn\u2019t room for improvement. But we believe true success is not being better off than someone else but rather being better off than you used to be.<\/span><\/p>\n<h2><span style=\"font-size: 14pt\"><b>Research, media, and reads of the month<\/b><\/span><\/h2>\n<div class=\"c-stack b-video-custom__metadata__stack\" data-style-direction=\"vertical\" data-style-justification=\"start\" data-style-alignment=\"unset\" data-style-inline=\"false\" data-style-wrap=\"nowrap\">\n<p class=\"c-paragraph b-video-custom__metadata__description\"><span style=\"font-size: 10pt\"><em>The path to success often comes through avoiding major mistakes rather than pursuing brilliant moves. This isn\u2019t about being passive \u2013 it\u2019s about being thoughtful and disciplined about where and how you compete. &#8211; <\/em><a href=\"https:\/\/fs.blog\/avoiding-stupidity\/\"><strong><em>Avoiding Stupidity is Easier than Seeking Brilliance<\/em><\/strong><\/a><\/span><span style=\"font-size: 10pt\"><em>\u00a0<\/em><\/span><\/p>\n<h3><span style=\"font-size: 10pt\"><strong>One of the best takes on tariffs and Canada <\/strong><\/span><\/h3>\n<p><span style=\"font-size: 10pt\">&#8220;A crisis of this magnitude &#8211; whether the tariffs materialize in 30 days or not \u2013 should be a wake-up call. We need to be an independent country that actually gets things done so that we are never as susceptible to the whims of our neighbour as we are today. That means diversifying our trade in earnest, as the European Union has done in signing three new trade deals in just the last two months. We need to maximize our internal efficiencies by dismantling interprovincial trade barriers and building a pipeline to get Alberta oil to eastern provinces without going through the U.S.&#8221; <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/VfoZEfDLn0\">Read Here<\/a><\/span><\/p>\n<h3><span style=\"font-size: 10pt\"><strong>How has China been preparing for a bigger trade war with the U.S.?<\/strong><\/span><\/h3>\n<p><span style=\"font-size: 10pt\">Some very interesting points here. Maybe it\u2019s time investors start establishing a position in Chinese markets and selling down U.S.? <a href=\"https:\/\/x.com\/i\/status\/1886133824314020202\">Watch Here<\/a><\/span><\/p>\n<h3><span style=\"font-size: 10pt\"><strong>DeepSeek a Sputnik moment? <\/strong><\/span><\/h3>\n<p><span style=\"font-size: 10pt\">&#8220;If AI becomes part of a new global arms race, a lack of guardrails could lead to a scary future \u2014 one far more dangerous than anything people imagined because of Sputnik&#8221;. <a href=\"https:\/\/x.com\/i\/status\/1886127597550960738\">Watch Here<\/a><\/span><\/p>\n<h3><span style=\"font-size: 10pt\"><strong>The region-beta paradox<\/strong><\/span><\/h3>\n<p><span style=\"font-size: 10pt\">&#8220;Do you only get motivated to work hard and grind after a big downswing?&#8221; This is an example of the region-beta paradox, a levered beta trade. That isn\u2019t to downplay its usefulness, but it helps to understand its relationship when running a portfolio. <a href=\"https:\/\/www.pokerstrategy.com\/news\/world-of-poker\/GTO-Poker-Theories-The-Region-Beta-Paradox_127323\/\">Read Here<\/a><\/span><\/p>\n<h3><span style=\"font-size: 10pt\"><strong>Valuations matter<\/strong><\/span><\/h3>\n<p><span style=\"font-size: 10pt\">Equities don&#8217;t always outperform inflation, even if held for 20 years. Therefore, starting points matter, even for a dollar cost averaging (DCA) strategy. Something many have forgotten in 2025. <a href=\"https:\/\/x.com\/TimmerFidelity\/status\/1885334850112286948\">Read Here<\/a><\/span><\/p>\n<h3><span style=\"font-size: 10pt\"><strong>Follow the flow<\/strong>.<\/span><\/h3>\n<p><span style=\"font-size: 10pt\">Something we missed in 2024 was the $6 trillion injected into the market as a means for the Biden Administration to get re-elected. That said, will markets move higher absent U.S. Federal Reserve and Treasury liquidity? <a href=\"https:\/\/x.com\/MPelletierCIO\/status\/1884330553979416678\/photo\/1\">See Here<\/a><\/span><\/p>\n<h3><span style=\"font-size: 10pt\"><strong>Very interesting charts and Michael Howell interview. <\/strong><\/span><\/h3>\n<p><span style=\"font-size: 10pt\">Found this interview via a client recommendation to read his book Capital Wars: the rise of global liquidity. <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/YK1JEyuDJo\">Watch Here<\/a><\/span><\/p>\n<h3><span style=\"font-size: 10pt\"><strong>Debt maturities<\/strong><\/span><\/h3>\n<p><span style=\"font-size: 10pt\">This will be a major headwind in the next decade. We&#8217;ve kicked the can on debt refinancing risk. <a href=\"https:\/\/pbs.twimg.com\/media\/GiZkXODaEAAyWSB?format=jpg&amp;name=medium\">See Here<\/a><\/span><\/p>\n<h3><span style=\"font-size: 10pt\"><strong>The electric vehicle revolution <\/strong><\/span><\/h3>\n<p><span style=\"font-size: 10pt\">Alberta will start collecting a $200 annual tax on electric vehicles next Thursday. Albertans will need to pay the annual fee when they register their electric vehicle. Think this will become a trend globally? <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/goXgLWAp59\">Read Here<\/a><\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-size: 10pt\">Ford Motor Company expects a $5 billion-$5.5 billion loss in its &#8220;Model e&#8221; electric vehicle segment this year due to cost challenges, executives said, as the company aims to increase its EV volume. <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/YSOTjuZRwn\">Read Here<\/a><\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-size: 10pt\">Porsche\u2019s deliveries last year dropped 3 per cent compared with 2023, with its push into the fast-growing market for electric vehicles in China misfiring. The group\u2019s Chinese sales slumped 28 per cent last year, with consumers failing to embrace its electric Taycan sedan. <a href=\"https:\/\/cnevpost.com\/2025\/01\/13\/porsche-2024-deliveries-china-fall\/#:~:text=Porsche's%20deliveries%20in%20China%20were,to%20about%20100%20before%202027.\">Read Here<\/a><\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-size: 10pt\">&#8220;BYD&#8217;s new Denza Z9 GT EV can parallel park in place by turning and spinning its right rear wheel forward and left rear wheel backward. It can also crab walk through tight spaces. Deliveries have already begun in China and start at US$47,000&#8221;. <a href=\"https:\/\/x.com\/i\/status\/1886899315735507255\">Watch Here<\/a><\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-size: 10pt\">I know \u201cfundamentals don\u2019t matter\u201d anymore with <a href=\"https:\/\/x.com\/search?q=%24TSLA&amp;src=cashtag_click\">$TSLA<\/a>, but still find it remarkable that the consensus 2025 estimate for adjusted earnings-per-share (EPS) ($3.05) has completely round-tripped to where it was in 2019, before the stock went parabolic. <a href=\"https:\/\/pbs.twimg.com\/media\/Gio3UoSXsAAgIUd?format=jpg&amp;name=medium\">See Here<\/a><\/span><\/p>\n<h3><span style=\"font-size: 10pt\"><strong>Iranian sanction enforcement<\/strong><\/span><\/h3>\n<p><span style=\"font-size: 10pt\">Trump\u2019s Iranian sanctions hit three ships active in China trade measures that stopped short of maximum pressure pledged by the U.S. One very-large crude carrier and two Aframaxes were affected. <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/04RGsnCRv6\">Read Here<\/a><\/span><\/p>\n<\/div>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<h2><span style=\"font-size: 14pt\"><b>On the Positive\u00a0<\/b><\/span><\/h2>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignleft wp-image-1265 size-medium\" src=\"https:\/\/advisor.wellington-altus.ca\/trivestwealthcounsel\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/119\/2025\/02\/Picture4-300x209.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"300\" height=\"209\" srcset=\"https:\/\/advisor.wellington-altus.ca\/trivestwealthcounsel\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/119\/2025\/02\/Picture4-300x209.jpg 300w, https:\/\/advisor.wellington-altus.ca\/trivestwealthcounsel\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/119\/2025\/02\/Picture4.jpg 584w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 300px) 100vw, 300px\" \/><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignleft wp-image-1266\" src=\"https:\/\/advisor.wellington-altus.ca\/trivestwealthcounsel\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/119\/2025\/02\/Picture5.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"310\" height=\"206\" \/><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-size: 10pt\"><em>\u201cThe real man is one who always finds excuses for others but never excuses himself.\u201d-<\/em> Henry Ward Beecher \u00a0\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<h3><span style=\"font-size: 10pt\"><strong>Augmented reality breakthrough on medical imaging <\/strong><\/span><\/h3>\n<p><span style=\"font-size: 10pt\">Viewing MRI results on patients during examinations became that much easier. <a href=\"https:\/\/x.com\/i\/status\/1887704692995567616\">Watch Here<\/a><\/span><\/p>\n<h3><span style=\"font-size: 10pt\"><strong>The MIQ Process<\/strong><\/span><\/h3>\n<p><span style=\"font-size: 10pt\">Chess prodigy Josh Waitzkin developed a process to achieve peak performance in any craft or career. He\u2019s applied it to the world of investing, professional sports, science and more. The MIQ Process. It is not a quick fix, but rather a rewiring of your default settings. <a href=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/watch?v=wAnDWfEIwoE&amp;t=0s\">Watch Here<\/a><\/span><\/p>\n<h3><span style=\"font-size: 10pt\"><strong>When a cougar enters the room\u00a0 <\/strong><\/span><\/h3>\n<p><span style=\"font-size: 10pt\">This is exactly how we need to deal with threats when they arise. Calmly shutting the door to give us time to safely come up with a response. <a href=\"https:\/\/x.com\/i\/status\/1886178845541515339\">Watch Here<\/a><strong>\u00a0 <\/strong>Make important decisions out of harmony and peace. <a href=\"https:\/\/x.com\/i\/status\/1886148976271142980\">Watch Here<\/a><\/span><\/p>\n<h3><span style=\"font-size: 10pt\"><strong>Don\u2019t be afraid of failure<\/strong><\/span><\/h3>\n<p><span style=\"font-size: 10pt\">Some sage words here by Ed Sheeran. <a href=\"https:\/\/x.com\/i\/status\/1884026981928558830\">Watch Here<\/a><\/span><\/p>\n<h3><span style=\"font-size: 10pt\"><strong>RealCTZN<\/strong><\/span><\/h3>\n<p><span style=\"font-size: 10pt\">Martin\u2018s recent podcast on Canada\u2019s economic challenges, ways we can use it to transform our country to maximize its potential and some of the mantras that he finds helpful in navigating life and business. <a href=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/watch?v=l_bRbTQR4dc\">Watch Here<\/a><\/span><\/p>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter wp-image-1267 size-full\" src=\"https:\/\/advisor.wellington-altus.ca\/trivestwealthcounsel\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/119\/2025\/02\/Picture6.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"624\" height=\"376\" srcset=\"https:\/\/advisor.wellington-altus.ca\/trivestwealthcounsel\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/119\/2025\/02\/Picture6.png 624w, https:\/\/advisor.wellington-altus.ca\/trivestwealthcounsel\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/119\/2025\/02\/Picture6-300x181.png 300w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 624px) 100vw, 624px\" \/><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<h2><span style=\"font-size: 14pt\"><b>Thanks for visiting <\/b><\/span><\/h2>\n<p><span style=\"font-size: 10pt\">To find out more about the TriVest team and how we manage wealth, follow us on <a href=\"https:\/\/trivestwealth.benchmarkurl.com\/c\/l?u=EAD5967&amp;e=155B670&amp;c=26A57&amp;t=1&amp;l=14EDCEC2&amp;email=14EQZVVJkTquuucOV2pnHcUwVYmFuk0yJTjeawJ2Q4s%3D&amp;seq=1\"><i>Twitter<\/i>, <\/a><a href=\"https:\/\/trivestwealth.benchmarkurl.com\/c\/l?u=EAD5968&amp;e=155B670&amp;c=26A57&amp;t=1&amp;l=14EDCEC2&amp;email=14EQZVVJkTquuucOV2pnHcUwVYmFuk0yJTjeawJ2Q4s%3D&amp;seq=1\"><i>LinkedIn<\/i><\/a> or <a href=\"https:\/\/trivestwealth.benchmarkurl.com\/c\/l?u=EAD5969&amp;e=155B670&amp;c=26A57&amp;t=1&amp;l=14EDCEC2&amp;email=14EQZVVJkTquuucOV2pnHcUwVYmFuk0yJTjeawJ2Q4s%3D&amp;seq=1\"><i>Facebook<\/i><\/a>\u00a0.\u00a0Please <a href=\"mailto:trivestwealth@wellington-altus.ca\">email us<\/a> if you want to find out more about our services.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-838\" src=\"https:\/\/advisor.wellington-altus.ca\/trivestwealthcounsel\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/119\/2024\/09\/Screenshot-2024-09-10-133259.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1117\" height=\"544\" srcset=\"https:\/\/advisor.wellington-altus.ca\/trivestwealthcounsel\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/119\/2024\/09\/Screenshot-2024-09-10-133259.png 1117w, https:\/\/advisor.wellington-altus.ca\/trivestwealthcounsel\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/119\/2024\/09\/Screenshot-2024-09-10-133259-300x146.png 300w, https:\/\/advisor.wellington-altus.ca\/trivestwealthcounsel\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/119\/2024\/09\/Screenshot-2024-09-10-133259-1024x499.png 1024w, https:\/\/advisor.wellington-altus.ca\/trivestwealthcounsel\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/119\/2024\/09\/Screenshot-2024-09-10-133259-768x374.png 768w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 1117px) 100vw, 1117px\" \/><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-size: 10pt\">The information contained herein has been provided for information purposes only.\u00a0 The information has been drawn from sources believed to be reliable.\u00a0 Graphs, charts and other numbers are used for illustrative purposes only and do not reflect future values or future performance of any investment.\u00a0 The information does not provide financial, legal, tax or investment advice.\u00a0 Particular investment, tax, or trading strategies should be evaluated relative to each individual\u2019s objectives and risk tolerance.\u00a0 This does not constitute a recommendation or solicitation to buy or sell securities of any kind. Market conditions may change which may impact the information contained in this document. \u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-size: 10pt\">Transactions of the type described herein may involve a high degree of risk, and the value of such instruments may be highly volatile. Such risks may include without limitation risk of adverse or unanticipated market developments, risk of issuer default and risk of illiquidity. In certain transactions counterparties may lose their entire investment or incur an unlimited loss.\u00a0 This brief statement does not disclose all the risks and other significant aspects in connection with transactions of the type described herein, and counterparties should ensure that they fully understand the terms of the transaction, including the relevant risk factors and any legal, tax, regulatory and accounting considerations applicable to them, prior to transacting.\u00a0 This report may contain links to third-party websites. WAPC is not responsible for the content of any third-party website or any linked content contained in a third-party website. The inclusion of a link in this report does not imply any endorsement by or any affiliation with WAPC.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-size: 10pt\">Structured Notes are not suitable for all investors. The notes do not pay dividends, and any dividends paid on the underlying constituent\u2019s may not factor into the return calculation that determines your return. The protection and potential augmented returns on these notes are only available when held to maturity.\u202fThese notes do not offer any protection if they are sold before the maturity date. If sold before the maturity date, returns may be positive or negative. These examples are for illustrative purposes only and should not be construed as an estimate or forecast of the performance of the Index or the return that an investor might realize on the Notes.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-size: 10pt\">Wellington-Altus Private Counsel Inc. (WAPC) does not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of the information contained herein, nor does WAPC assume any liability for any loss that may result from the reliance by any person upon any such information or opinions.\u00a0 Before acting on any of the above, please contact your financial advisor.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-size: 10pt\">All trademarks are the property of their respective owners.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-size: 10pt\">\u00a9 2025, Wellington-Altus Private Counsel Inc.\u00a0 ALL RIGHTS RESERVED.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-size: 10pt\">NO USE OR REPRODUCTION WITHOUT PERMISSION. <a href=\"http:\/\/www.wellington-altus.ca\">www.wellington-altus.ca<\/a><\/span><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Welcome to this month\u2019s Market Strategy. In this edition we share our latest views on the market along with how we\u2019re positioned strategically.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":229,"featured_media":1270,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_oasis_is_in_workflow":0,"_oasis_original":0,"_oasis_task_priority":"","_exactmetrics_skip_tracking":false,"_exactmetrics_sitenote_active":false,"_exactmetrics_sitenote_note":"","_exactmetrics_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[22],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-1259","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-monthly-market-research"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/advisor.wellington-altus.ca\/trivestwealthcounsel\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1259","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/advisor.wellington-altus.ca\/trivestwealthcounsel\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/advisor.wellington-altus.ca\/trivestwealthcounsel\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/advisor.wellington-altus.ca\/trivestwealthcounsel\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/229"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/advisor.wellington-altus.ca\/trivestwealthcounsel\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=1259"}],"version-history":[{"count":24,"href":"https:\/\/advisor.wellington-altus.ca\/trivestwealthcounsel\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1259\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":1334,"href":"https:\/\/advisor.wellington-altus.ca\/trivestwealthcounsel\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1259\/revisions\/1334"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/advisor.wellington-altus.ca\/trivestwealthcounsel\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/1270"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/advisor.wellington-altus.ca\/trivestwealthcounsel\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=1259"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/advisor.wellington-altus.ca\/trivestwealthcounsel\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=1259"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/advisor.wellington-altus.ca\/trivestwealthcounsel\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=1259"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}