{"id":1426,"date":"2025-04-04T08:00:42","date_gmt":"2025-04-04T08:00:42","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/advisor.wellington-altus.ca\/trivestwealthcounsel\/?p=1426"},"modified":"2025-04-04T18:39:16","modified_gmt":"2025-04-04T18:39:16","slug":"trivest-market-and-strategy-update","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/advisor.wellington-altus.ca\/trivestwealthcounsel\/trivest-market-and-strategy-update\/","title":{"rendered":"TriVest Market and Strategy Update"},"content":{"rendered":"

As we prepare to send out our Q1 2025 Client Package, followed by our monthly strategy update, we wanted to take a moment to address recent market developments. Given the significant action over the past week, it\u2019s important to assess what\u2019s happening and what it could mean moving forward.<\/span><\/p>\n

Understanding the Market Sell-Off<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

The recent market downturn has triggered a wave of reflection and debate. Morgan Housel, author of The Psychology of Money<\/em>, captured the sentiment with a thought-provoking remark:<\/span><\/p>\n

“Spoke to an investor who said, \u2018If the market actually processes what happened yesterday, it would be down 30-40%. The fact that it\u2019s not is either denial or a belief that it will soon be reversed.\u2019”<\/em><\/span><\/p>\n

This highlights a critical question: Is the market underestimating the significance of recent events, or is it betting on a swift resolution?<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

At first glance, the sell-off appears to be part of a broader strategic maneuver\u2014potentially aimed at improving U.S. trade terms, weakening the dollar, and lowering domestic interest rates. However, the implications may be far more structural. We could be witnessing a fundamental shift in global trade dynamics, with consequences that extend well beyond short-term volatility.<\/span><\/p>\n

Ian Bremmer of Eurasia Group drew a stark parallel:<\/span><\/p>\n

“The British didn\u2019t understand what Brexit meant for their economy. But they wanted it, they voted for it, and they\u2019ve gotten it. Now it\u2019s the Americans\u2019 turn.”<\/em><\/span><\/p>\n

This comparison serves as a cautionary reminder: policy choices, even when made with confidence, can lead to unintended economic consequences. As the dust settles, we may see which sectors or companies were overexposed\u2014some may struggle under pressure<\/a>, while others could emerge as new opportunities. Successfully navigating this environment will require caution, adaptability, and discipline.<\/span><\/p>\n

Positioning Ahead of Uncertainty<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

Fortunately, we entered 2025 with a clear strategic framework in place, which we outlined in our February Market Strategy piece<\/a>\u2014our “Third-Period Trap Zone” approach<\/strong>:<\/span><\/p>\n

“We liken today\u2019s environment to entering the third period of a hockey game, where the first two periods were full of scoring, but now the opposing team is coming out swinging. This is not the time to take on unnecessary risk but rather to play a neutral zone trap\u2014protecting gains while selectively striking at opportunities.”<\/em><\/span><\/p>\n

In January and February, we were actively repositioning client portfolios and our TWC Risk-Managed Balanced Growth Fund in response to market developments, particularly taking advantage of the 30-day tariff reprieve:<\/span><\/p>\n