{"id":1659,"date":"2025-07-24T12:00:54","date_gmt":"2025-07-24T12:00:54","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/advisor.wellington-altus.ca\/trivestwealthcounsel\/?p=1659"},"modified":"2025-07-24T19:56:55","modified_gmt":"2025-07-24T19:56:55","slug":"july-2025-rethinking-the-60-40-portfolio-why-investors-should-shift-to-a-goals-based-approach","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/advisor.wellington-altus.ca\/trivestwealthcounsel\/july-2025-rethinking-the-60-40-portfolio-why-investors-should-shift-to-a-goals-based-approach\/","title":{"rendered":"July 2025: Rethinking the 60\/40 Portfolio \u2014 Why Investors Should Shift to a Goals-Based Approach"},"content":{"rendered":"

INSIDE<\/b><\/span><\/h3>\n

Goals-Based Investing and Rethinking the 60\/40 Portfolio<\/strong><\/span><\/h3>\n

The traditional 60\/40 investment portfolio\u2014once a reliable strategy for balancing growth and stability\u2014is facing significant challenges in today\u2019s economic climate. With persistently high interest rates, inflationary pressures, and volatile equity markets, both bonds and stocks are underperforming, undermining the model\u2019s effectiveness. Bonds no longer provide the safety net they once did, and equity gains are increasingly concentrated in a few tech giants, raising concerns about diversification. As a result, investors are turning to alternative assets, structured products, global diversification, and more dynamic asset allocation strategies. While the 60\/40 model isn\u2019t obsolete, it requires thoughtful adaptation to remain relevant in this new financial landscape.<\/span><\/p>\n

For more on this, the benefits of goals-based investing and the use of structured notes over benchmarking to the traditional 60\/40 we recommend this recent podcast by Martin:<\/span><\/p>\n

\ud83d\udcfa Watch on YouTube<\/a><\/span><\/p>\n

\u00a0\ud83c\udfa7 Listen on Spotify<\/a><\/span><\/p>\n

Perspective, Portfolios, and Positioning for Q3<\/strong><\/span><\/h3>\n

During a recent holiday on the Amalfi Coast, Martin found clarity away from the constant noise of markets and media, realizing how easily a jaded worldview can form amid relentless headlines and policy concerns. Despite global economic headwinds, trade tensions, and geopolitical instability, equity markets have remained resilient \u2014 highlighting the disconnect between perception and portfolio performance. This experience reinforced the importance of stepping back, staying disciplined, and focusing on long-term goals rather than reacting emotionally to short-term events. Markets, while imperfect, are forward-looking and often more rational than they appear in the moment. By maintaining a diversified, resilient investment strategy and aligning portfolios with personal goals rather than market noise, investors can navigate uncertainty with confidence and composure.<\/span><\/p>\n

Finding Opportunity Amid Uncertainty<\/strong><\/span><\/h3>\n

In response to the shifting landscape, we have made a strategic pivot toward asymmetric profile instruments which have delivered strong, risk-adjusted returns while offering downside protection and tailored exposure. For example, we\u2019ve recently had a number of autocallable notes called away with some large yields. This includes a Canadian Blue Chip note that just paid a 20.5 per cent coupon, a Canadian Bank note that paid 20 per cent, one at 12.8 per cent, one at 12.6 per cent and another that paid 11 per cent, and a Principle Protected note that paid 8.2 per cent. We also had a monster Pipeline note with an annual 11.25 per cent coupon get called but it also had a 200 per cent participation so it paid out a whopping 75 per cent total combined one-year yield.<\/span><\/p>\n

Please reach out to any of our team members should you have any comments or questions about markets, your portfolio or just wanting to catch up. All the best, and keep investing wisely!<\/span><\/p>\n

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 <\/p>\n

July 2025: Rethinking the 60\/40 Portfolio<\/strong> \u2014<\/em><\/strong> Why Investors Should Shift to a Goals-Based Approach<\/em><\/strong><\/span><\/h2>\n

In today\u2019s market environment, the greatest threat to your portfolio may not be the market itself\u2014but how you respond to it.<\/span><\/p>\n

The traditional 60\/40 portfolio\u201460 per cent equities and 40 per cent bonds\u2014has long been a cornerstone of balanced investing. It offered a simple, effective way to manage risk and reward, with equities driving growth and bonds providing stability and income. But in today\u2019s economic climate, this once-reliable formula is showing signs of strain.<\/span><\/p>\n

The Cracks in the Foundation<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

The 60\/40 model worked well in an era of falling interest rates and moderate inflation. Bonds provided a steady income stream and tended to rise in value when stocks fell, offering a natural hedge. But that dynamic has shifted dramatically.<\/span><\/p>\n

Any market corrections since 2022 have seen both stocks and bonds experience simultaneous declines\u2014a rare and painful scenario for investors. Interest rates have risen sharply, inflation remains sticky, and geopolitical instability continues to inject volatility into global markets. Bonds, once the cornerstone of conservative portfolios, are underdelivering, and equities are rebounding to new highs despite softening economic data.<\/span><\/p>\n

For traditional 60\/40 investors, this has been a particularly challenging period. The model has struggled to provide the downside protection it historically offered. Bonds have failed to hedge equity risk, and volatility has become more frequent\u2014and more emotionally charged.<\/span><\/p>\n

As Ben Carlson wrote in his blog<\/a> \u201c\u00a0The biggest risk for bonds is inflation because they pay you a fixed amount of income over time. You need to look at the inflation-adjusted returns to really understand how things compare over time.\u201d And when you do the result are terrible.<\/span><\/p>\n

\"\"<\/a><\/p>\n

The Emotional Toll of Volatility<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

This volatility doesn\u2019t just affect portfolios\u2014it affects people. Investors are becoming more reactive, more anxious, and more susceptible to the fear of missing out. They want to participate in market rallies but also demand protection from drawdowns. These are inherently conflicting goals, and managing that tension is where the real work of an adviser begins.<\/span><\/p>\n

As discretionary money managers, the challenge isn\u2019t just navigating markets\u2014it\u2019s managing expectations. The 60\/40 model no longer behaves as expected, and that requires a shift in both strategy and mindset.<\/span><\/p>\n

A Shift Toward Goals-Based Investing<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

That\u2019s why many advisors are moving toward a\u00a0goals-based investing framework. Rather than chasing benchmarks or the latest hot sector, the focus is on helping clients define what success looks like\u2014whether it\u2019s retirement income, capital preservation, or legacy planning\u2014and then building portfolios designed to meet those specific outcomes.<\/span><\/p>\n

This approach is especially effective in volatile markets because it removes the emotional element from investing. When clients are anchored to their personal goals rather than market headlines, they\u2019re less likely to panic during downturns or chase performance during rallies. It reframes the conversation from \u201cWhy aren\u2019t we beating the S&P?\u201d to \u201cAre we still on track to meet your goals?\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n

Practical Applications: Tools, Not Tricks<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

For example, someone nearing retirement may be concerned about missing out on the recent AI-driven rally. Rather than reallocating aggressively into tech, advisors might explore strategies such as\u00a0structured income notes\u00a0or\u00a0dividend-paying stocks\u00a0to meet their required return. This clarity helps clients stay the course and avoid unnecessary risk.<\/span><\/p>\n

Structured products, often misunderstood, are gaining traction as powerful tools when used properly. They\u2019re not speculative bets but goal-aligned instruments\u2014whether it\u2019s generating tax-efficient income, protecting capital, or smoothing returns. Since early 2021, many firms have implemented a range of structured notes across client portfolios. A recent performance review with National Bank Financial showed these notes we owned consistently delivered attractive risk-adjusted returns across various market conditions, often outperforming traditional bonds while offering built-in buffers against drawdowns.<\/span><\/p>\n

Yes, they can be complex\u2014but when clients understand how these notes work, what risks they carry, and how they fit into the broader portfolio, they\u2019re far more comfortable using them.<\/span><\/p>\n

Discipline Is the Edge<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

In a world where headlines change by the hour and markets swing on sentiment, the temptation to react is constant. But successful investing isn\u2019t about reacting\u2014it\u2019s about responding with discipline, clarity, and purpose.<\/span><\/p>\n

The goal isn\u2019t to predict the future, but to prepare for it. That means building portfolios that are\u00a0resilient, not reactive, and using every tool available\u2014including innovative products like structured notes\u2014to help clients stay on track, even when the path gets bumpy.<\/span><\/p>\n

Because in the end, the greatest threat to your portfolio isn\u2019t inflation, interest rates, or even a market correction. It\u2019s abandoning your plan when it matters most. And an adviser\u2019s job is to make sure that doesn\u2019t happen.<\/span><\/p>\n

Final Thoughts: Evolution, Not Abandonment<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

The 60\/40 portfolio isn\u2019t obsolete\u2014but it is evolving. It still has a role to play, especially for conservative investors or those nearing retirement. However, it should no longer be viewed as a set-it-and-forget-it solution.<\/span><\/p>\n

Today\u2019s market demands a more nuanced approach\u2014one that incorporates a broader range of asset classes, embraces flexibility, and is grounded in a deep understanding of macroeconomic trends. By adapting to this new reality, investors can better position themselves for long-term success, even in uncertain times.<\/span><\/p>\n

For more on this, the benefits of goals-based investing and the use of structured notes over benchmarking to the traditional 60\/40 we recommend this recent podcast by Martin:<\/span><\/p>\n

\ud83d\udcfa Watch on YouTube<\/a><\/span><\/p>\n

\u00a0\ud83c\udfa7 Listen on Spotify<\/a><\/span><\/p>\n

Clarity from the Coast: <\/strong>Perspective, Portfolios, and Positioning for Q3<\/em><\/strong><\/span><\/h2>\n

There\u2019s something about stepping away from the noise that sharpens clarity.<\/span><\/p>\n

During a recent holiday on the Amalfi Coast\u2014between long walks through sun-drenched villages, generous pours of local wine, and more pasta than he cares to admit\u2014Martin found himself reflecting not just on the beauty of the landscape, but on the internal dialogue that often goes unnoticed. Somewhere between plates of Caprese salad and glasses of chilled Aperol Spritz, he realized how much of his worldview had been shaded by a jaded lens\u2014one shaped by relentless headlines, geopolitical flashpoints, and economically questionable policy decisions.<\/span><\/p>\n

Fortunately, those perceptions haven\u2019t shaped our investment decisions.<\/span><\/p>\n

Perception vs. Portfolio<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

This distinction between perception and portfolio is more important than ever. Despite a backdrop of moderating global growth, escalating trade tensions, and geopolitical instability, equity markets have once again defied gravity. The World Bank\u2019s June 2025 outlook forecasts global growth slowing to just 2.3 per cent\u2014the weakest pace since 2008 outside of recessions. Yet markets remain buoyant, supported by liquidity, resilient earnings in key sectors, and expectations of continued central bank support.<\/span><\/p>\n

Even with unresolved trade risks\u2014like the looming tariff risks and rising protectionism\u2014markets have shown surprising resilience. This disconnect between policy turbulence and market performance underscores the complexity of today\u2019s investment landscape and reinforces the importance of maintaining a disciplined, long-term perspective.<\/span><\/p>\n

The Power of Stepping Back <\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

Taking time away from the markets can serve as a powerful reminder of the value of distance\u2014not just physical, but mental and emotional. In a world saturated with noise\u2014from the 24-hour news cycle to the endless scroll of social media and the constant hum of market data\u2014stepping back can be an act of clarity.<\/span><\/p>\n

Removing yourself from the daily barrage of information allows you to zoom out, recalibrate, and reconnect with the foundational principles that guide sound decision-making. It\u2019s in these quiet moments, away from the urgency of headlines and the pressure to react, that true perspective emerges.<\/span><\/p>\n

For us it is to ignore the noise and to stay true to the core of our investment philosophy: stay diversified, stay disciplined, and always have a plan. These aren\u2019t just tactical choices\u2014they\u2019re strategic commitments to long-term thinking, emotional resilience, and purposeful action. In a market environment where noise often masquerades as insight, the ability to pause, reflect, and refocus is not a luxury\u2014it\u2019s a competitive advantage.<\/span><\/p>\n

Strategy in Action<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

That clarity is informing how we\u2019re positioning portfolios heading into the third quarter. While the world feels chaotic, markets have a way of finding balance\u2014and we\u2019re preparing for both the risks and the opportunities ahead.<\/span><\/p>\n

Here are a few key strategies we\u2019re deploying:<\/span><\/p>\n

1. Structured Notes for Income and Protection<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

With volatility still elevated and traditional fixed income under pressure, we\u2019re using structured notes to generate income while providing downside buffers. These are tailored to client-specific goals\u2014whether it\u2019s capital preservation, tax-efficient yield, or equity participation with protection.<\/span><\/p>\n

2. Dividend-Focused Equity Strategies<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

We\u2019re emphasizing high-quality dividend payers, particularly in sectors with pricing power and strong balance sheets. These companies not only provide income but also tend to be more resilient during market drawdowns. In particular, our use of the Outcome Metric Canadian Equity Income rules-based model has already yielded some excellent results.<\/span><\/p>\n

3. Selective Exposure to Alternatives<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

Our NewGen Focused Alpha allocation continues to offer very attractive risk-adjusted returns with a lower correlation to large cap equities. We\u2019re continuing to increase exposure to these areas where appropriate, particularly for clients seeking some growth and inflation protection.<\/span><\/p>\n

4. Global Diversification with a Defensive Tilt<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

While U.S. markets have led much of the recent rally, we\u2019re maintaining global diversification with a tilt toward defensive sectors and regions less exposed to trade tensions. This includes select opportunities in low volatility stocks and value segments of the market.<\/span><\/p>\n

5. Tax-Aware Rebalancing<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

As we move through mid-year, we continue to review portfolios for tax-loss harvesting opportunities and rebalancing to maintain alignment with long-term targets\u2014especially important in a year where gains have been concentrated in a narrow set of names.<\/span><\/p>\n

Lessons from the Coastline<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

Driving along the winding roads of the Amalfi Coast, Martin was reminded of another truth: sometimes the path is narrow, the turns are sharp, and the visibility is low. But if you stay focused, trust your preparation, and don\u2019t overreact to every bump, you\u2019ll get where you\u2019re going.<\/span><\/p>\n

The same is true in investing. We can\u2019t control the headlines. We can\u2019t predict the next policy decision or geopolitical flare-up. But we can control how we respond. We can choose discipline over emotion, strategy over speculation, and clarity over chaos.<\/span><\/p>\n

Navigating Q3: Finding Opportunity Amid Uncertainty<\/em><\/strong><\/span><\/h2>\n

As we step into the third quarter, uncertainty remains elevated\u2014but so does the potential for opportunity. Markets may be complex, but they are not impenetrable. With the right mindset, tools, and guidance, we believe investors can not only weather volatility but capitalize on it.<\/span><\/p>\n

During the quarter, we made several high-conviction portfolio adjustments. A significant GIC note was called away, and we redeployed that capital into a pair of innovative accelerator look-back notes\u2014now the fund\u2019s largest position. One note is USD-denominated and held within the fund, while the other is CAD-denominated and allocated to individual client accounts. This shift marked a strategic reallocation from traditional fixed income into a more dynamic equity-linked structure.<\/span><\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

These equity notes are tied to a basket of large-cap Canadian equities\u2014including TC Energy, Enbridge, CIBC, TD Bank, Agnico Eagle Mines, and Manulife Financial\u2014and run over a three-year term. Six months post-inception (from May), the notes will lock in the lowest point for the basket and provide 1.18x (or 1.55x for the USD note) upside participation from that level, with a 30 per cent downside buffer. This structure offers a compelling risk-reward profile: even if markets decline in the near term, investors stand to benefit from gains off the bottom with meaningful downside protection.<\/span><\/p>\n

We also doubled our commodities exposure by adding to gold on a dip and tactically increased energy holdings ahead of the Israel-Iran standoff. This included tax-loss harvesting\u2014selling Baytex and rotating into Vermilion Energy\u2014and a timely switch from Cenovus to MEG Energy, which proved prescient given the subsequent takeover offer by Strathcona Resources.<\/span><\/p>\n

Our cash position was tactically deployed early in the quarter during market weakness, and we increased our Canadian dividend exposure. The portfolio remains well-diversified and strategically hedged, with top holdings focused more on absolute return than on beta-driven market rallies.<\/span><\/p>\n

We\u2019ve also been redeploying a lot of autocallable notes that were called away with some large yields the last few months. This includes a Canadian Blue Chip note that just paid a 20.5 per cent coupon, a Canadian Bank note that paid 20 per cent, one at 12.8 per cent, one at 12.6 per cent and another that paid 11 per cent, and a Principle Protected note that paid 8.2 per cent. We also had a monster Pipeline note with an annual 11.25 per cent coupon get called but it also had a 200 per cent participation so it paid out a whopping 75 per cent one-year yield.<\/em><\/span><\/p>\n

Top Ten Securities by Market Value<\/strong><\/span><\/h4>\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
Description<\/strong><\/span><\/td>\nWeight<\/strong><\/span><\/td>\nStrategy<\/strong><\/span><\/td>\nSymbol<\/strong><\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
CDN LARGE CAP LOOKBACK $US<\/span><\/td>\n6.42%<\/span><\/td>\nFixed Income (Note)<\/span><\/td>\nJHN7757<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
OWM OUTCOME CDN EQUITY<\/span><\/td>\n5.42%<\/span><\/td>\nCdn Dividend<\/span><\/td>\nOWM209<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
VANGUARD VALUE ETF<\/span><\/td>\n5.10%<\/span><\/td>\nU.S. Equity<\/span><\/td>\nVTV<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
BMO SY NOTE FUND<\/span><\/td>\n3.99%<\/span><\/td>\nFixed Income (Note)<\/span><\/td>\nBMO95341<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
HEDGED US EQUITY ETF<\/span><\/td>\n3.99%<\/span><\/td>\nU.S. Equity<\/span><\/td>\nHEQT<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
TDB MONEY MARKET<\/span><\/td>\n3.18%<\/span><\/td>\nMoney Market<\/span><\/td>\nTDB8151<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
NBC MARATHON TLT $US NOTE<\/span><\/td>\n3.17%<\/span><\/td>\nFixed Income (Note)<\/span><\/td>\nNBC25288<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
NEW FSD ALPHA FUND<\/span><\/td>\n3.03%<\/span><\/td>\nCdn Alt Equity<\/span><\/td>\nNEW507<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
BMO ACALL TLT $US NOTE<\/span><\/td>\n2.83%<\/span><\/td>\nFixed Income (Note)<\/span><\/td>\nJHN18421<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
RBC EURO STX 50 NOTE<\/span><\/td>\n2.77%<\/span><\/td>\nEuro Equity (Note)<\/span><\/td>\nRBC10981<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n

<\/h4>\n

Asset Allocation<\/strong><\/span><\/h4>\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
EQUITY NOTES<\/span><\/td>\n33.70%<\/span><\/td>\nCDN ENERGY<\/span><\/td>\n3.80%<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
FIXED INCOME, PPNS<\/span><\/td>\n24.70%<\/span><\/td>\nPRIVATE EQUITY<\/span><\/td>\n3.40%<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
CASH\/MONEY MARKET<\/span><\/td>\n7.20%<\/span><\/td>\nCOMMODITIES<\/span><\/td>\n3.00%<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
U.S. VALUE<\/span><\/td>\n5.10%<\/span><\/td>\nCDN ALT L\/S<\/span><\/td>\n3.03%<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
CDN DIVIDEND<\/span><\/td>\n5.42%<\/span><\/td>\nU.S. UNHEDGED S&P<\/span><\/td>\n1.21%<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
CDN BROADER EQUITY<\/span><\/td>\n5.08%<\/span><\/td>\nINT’L EQUITY<\/span><\/td>\n0.40%<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
U.S. HEDGED EQUITY<\/span><\/td>\n3.99%<\/span><\/td>\n\u00a0<\/span><\/td>\n\u00a0<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n

 <\/p>\n

Despite a cautious market backdrop, the fund continues to deliver on its long-term, goals-based mandate:<\/span><\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Period<\/strong><\/span><\/td>\n1-Mo<\/strong><\/span><\/td>\n3-Mo<\/strong><\/span><\/td>\n6-Mo<\/strong><\/span><\/td>\nYTD<\/strong><\/span><\/td>\n1-Yr<\/strong><\/span><\/td>\n2-Yrs<\/strong><\/span><\/td>\n3-Yrs<\/strong><\/span><\/td>\n5-Yrs<\/strong><\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
TWC RM BG Fund Return <\/em><\/strong><\/span><\/td>\n1.20%<\/em><\/strong><\/span><\/td>\n0.60%<\/em><\/strong><\/span><\/td>\n2.00%<\/em><\/strong><\/span><\/td>\n2.00%<\/em><\/strong><\/span><\/td>\n8.90%<\/em><\/strong><\/span><\/td>\n9.10%<\/em><\/strong><\/span><\/td>\n8.20%<\/em><\/strong><\/span><\/td>\n8.00%<\/em><\/strong><\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Global Passive Balanced Return*<\/span><\/td>\n2.20%<\/span><\/td>\n3.10%<\/span><\/td>\n3.40%<\/span><\/td>\n3.40%<\/span><\/td>\n9.80%<\/span><\/td>\n10.40%<\/span><\/td>\n10.00%<\/span><\/td>\n6.10%<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n

CAD<\/em>\u00a0<\/em>|<\/em>\u00a0<\/em>Investment return as of<\/em>\u00a0<\/em>June 30, 2025, | Global Passive Balanced 40% Vanguard Total Bond, 10% Capped S&P\/TSX, 50% iShares MSCI World Index <\/em>| <\/em>Past returns are not indicative of future returns. TWC returns reflecting 1% fee for TRI400 unit holders, and TWR calculated at month-end<\/em>.<\/em><\/span><\/p>\n

Overall, our\u00a0Risk-Managed Balanced Growth Fund\u00a0has delivered returns in-line with our goals-based target returns over the longer-term. While we don\u2019t like to compare to passive portfolios given our goals-based approach it is still useful showing the effectiveness of our strategies especially with the benefits of reducing the downside exposure which is reflected in our longer-term five-year outperformance.<\/span><\/p>\n

As we enter into the second half of the year, we anticipate an\u00a0acceleration in performance as more of our structured notes reach their payout thresholds. These instruments tend to lag in early stages of a recovery but often deliver outsized returns as markets stabilize\u2014helping to smooth performance over time. Given their significant weight in our client portfolios, this dynamic is especially important. Some of this is already starting to take shape as we estimate the fund is up another 0.75 per cent in the first week and a half of July.<\/span><\/p>\n

Research, reads of the month<\/b><\/span><\/h2>\n
\"\"<\/a> \"\"<\/a><\/div>\n
<\/div>\n

 <\/p>\n

The key to investing once you\u2019ve built wealth<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

In his latest Financial Post column, Martin explores how discipline, emotional control, and a long-term perspective are the real edge in today\u2019s volatile markets. If you\u2019re retired or approaching retirement, this is a must-read. Read Here<\/a><\/span><\/p>\n

Jeremy Grantham: How to predict a stock market bubble – and why NVIDIA may lead the Mag 7 crash<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

This week Wilf speaks to the man who has predicted some of the biggest stock market bubbles of the last 5 decades – Jeremy Grantham – who, on the day that NVIDIA hits $4trn market cap predicts that we are nearing the top of another major bubble, likening Nvidia’s success to the “guy selling shovels at the peak of the gold rush”. Striking a very bearish note on the US Magnificent 7, he discusses the pain that predicting crashes too early causes finance professionals but how private individuals have advantages as long as they step back and look at the data, as he shares his advice for investors following a legendary career. Watch Here<\/a><\/span><\/p>\n

Latest round of Trump tariffs weigh on markets<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

Martin Pelletier, senior portfolio manager at Wellington-Altus Private Counsel, joins BNN Bloomberg to discuss investing amid tariff tensions and volatility. Watch Here<\/a><\/span><\/p>\n

Morgan Stanley \u2013 the worst decade for developed-market government bond returns<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

It’s been the worst decade for developed-market government bond returns in modern history, as per \u00a0Deutsche Bank’s global head of economics and thematic research Jim Reid. This has pushed yields higher as governments keep selling bonds to plug fiscal gaps. The U.S. plans a net issuance of $223.2 billion in the next five weeks alone. See Here<\/a><\/span><\/p>\n

Trouble in Japanese bond markets<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

Japanese 30-year yields are rising back toward all-time highs. \u00a0\u201cConcerns over fiscal deterioration are very strong,” as well as “growing fears that the government may resort to fiscal expansion in response to an economic downturn caused by tariffs,\u201d says Katsutoshi Inadome, senior strategist at Sumitomo Mitsui Trust Asset Management. See Here<\/a> Japanese bond market evidence shows that there is a major structural shift with consequences from the years of quantitative easing (QE), low rate policy, and now massive deficit fiscal spending. See Here<\/a><\/span><\/p>\n

S&P 500 market breadth near the worst level this century<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

Only 5 per cent of S&P 500 stocks\u00a0are making new 52-week highs \u2014 down sharply from 24 per cent in November 2024. Market breadth\u00a0is a key indicator of the health of a rally. When only a few stocks are driving gains, it suggests fragility \u2014 if those leaders falter, the whole index could tumble. Investor caution\u00a0is warranted, as this kind of narrow leadership has historically preceded periods of volatility or correction. However,\u00a0historical data also shows\u00a0that such weak breadth can sometimes mark a\u00a0turning point, with broader participation improving over time. See Here<\/a><\/span><\/p>\n

Yes, we\u2019ve been here before<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

If you’re worried about Tech being a bubble let me remind you of Rail stocks in the 1900s which made up over 65 per cent of the U.S. stock market. See Here<\/a><\/span><\/p>\n

APOLLO: Either the bond market are wrong or equity markets are wrong<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

Either the bond market is wrong, and rates must move higher due to accelerating growth. Or, equity markets are wrong, and stocks have to move lower because growth is slowing down., and rates must move higher due to accelerating growth. Or, equity markets are wrong, and stocks have to move lower because growth is slowing down. See Here<\/a><\/span><\/p>\n

A closer look at the fall of the USD<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

The strength of the U.S. equity market and tight credit spreads in investment grade and high yield indicate that the dollar decline in the first half of 2025 was not driven by foreign selling of U.S. assets. Instead, the decline in the dollar was likely driven by hedging activity, as foreign investors, after decades of not hedging their U.S. investments, began hedging some of their dollar exposures. With Section 899 behind us and the U.S. Federal Reserve keeping interest rates higher for longer, dollar hedging activity is likely to slow down. \u2013 Apollo. Read Here<\/a><\/span><\/p>\n

Stablecoins Are Becoming Major Treasury Buyers<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

This whole Stablecoin thing is fascinating. Stablecoins are becoming stealth buyers of U.S. debt. They already hold over $200B in Treasuries\u2014and inflows are now moving 3-month T-bill yields by 2bps. As demand scales into the trillions, expect a steeper curve and a new front-end bond market dynamic. Read Here<\/span><\/p>\n

Misguided policy risks<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

The most surprising development is U.S. President Donald Trump\u2019s heavy reliance on treasury bills until rates fall revealing a shift away from terming out debt and toward continued use of Activist Treasury Issuance<\/a> (). ATI is a term coined by economists Stephen Miran and Nouriel Roubini to describe a deliberate shift in the U.S. Treasury\u2019s debt issuance strategy\u2014specifically, the decision to favor short-term Treasury bills (T-bills) over longer-term bonds. This approach is seen as a way to influence financial conditions<\/a>, similar to how the Federal Reserve uses interest rates or quantitative easing. Fiscal discipline also appears abandoned, with deficit reduction off the table, reinforcing a backdrop of structurally easier financial conditions and persistent inflation\u2014favourable for equities, gold, and Bitcoin. The U.S. dollar remains under pressure, with personal observations from Europe highlighting rising costs. Nonetheless, markets are pricing in easing, driven by political pressure and expectations of the current Fed chair turning to a dovish stance, which is buoying risk assets. The idea that policymakers can lower rates to lock in cheap long-term debt is flawed\u2014doing so would likely backfire by reigniting inflation and pushing yields higher. \u00a0Read Here<\/a><\/span><\/p>\n

Will the Federal Reserve capitulate?<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

The Federal Reserve\u2019s balance sheet declined by -US$13 billion in June, to US$6.66 trillion, the lowest since April 2020. Large deficit fiscal spending has offset the reduction in the Fed\u2019s monetary policy. Hopefully they don\u2019t capitulate and start juicing the system as long as this deficit continues. See Here<\/a><\/span><\/p>\n

Massive change in employment in the U.S. over the past 34 years<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

From Scott Galloway’s newsletter. One hell of an infographic showing the shift in the top employment spot in each state. See Here<\/a><\/span><\/p>\n

Why Commodities Could Be the Trade of the Decade\u00a0<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

Are commodities entering a stealth bull market? In this episode of In the Money<\/em> with Amber Kanwar, Thompson Investment Partners senior portfolio manager Bob Thompson makes the case for why investors should look beyond tech and get serious about the next major cycle: commodities. Thompson explains why gold, copper, uranium, and fertilizer stocks are poised for long-term outperformance and why we may already be in a commodity bull market that most investors are missing. From underinvestment in mining to decade-long U.S. dollar cycles, he breaks down the macro forces driving this pivot and the historical parallels that suggest a major reversion is coming. Watch Here<\/a><\/span><\/p>\n

The amount of wealth leaving Canada would be eye-opening for many Canadians<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

Canada\u2019s future prosperity depends on policies that reward ambition rather than punish it. We don\u2019t just lose tax dollars when we drive away successful Canadians; we lose innovators, job creators, and the very people who can help build a better future. It\u2019s time for leadership that sees this clearly and acts decisively. Read Here<\/a><\/span><\/p>\n

Canada\u2019s economy keeps growing \u2014 but Canadians aren\u2019t feeling it.<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

In 2015, we ranked 6th in the world for GDP per capita. Today? 15th. Behind Ireland, Singapore, Norway, Australia \u2014 just ahead of the UK. So where is all the wealth going? See Here<\/a><\/span><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

On the Positive <\/strong>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

What I could have learnt from Ren\u00e9 Girard<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

The French theorist admired by the US right has an important message for both sides of politics Read Here<\/a><\/span><\/p>\n

The Comeback Is Personal<\/strong><\/span>
\nFinish 2025 with a powerful mindset. This video is a compilation of the most impactful motivational speeches from world-renowned voices like Eric Thomas, Les Brown, and David Goggins. Whether you’re rebuilding, starting over, or chasing something bigger\u2014this is your comeback season.<\/span>
\nPush past your limits.<\/em><\/span>
\n\ud83d\udc49<\/strong> Watch Here<\/a><\/span><\/p>\n

The Grind in 2025 Is Going to Be Personal<\/strong><\/span>
\nThis one\u2019s for the early risers and late grinders. A high-energy compilation designed to fuel your focus and remind you that\u00a0this year is yours to take\u2014if you\u2019re willing to work for it.<\/span>
\nNo more excuses. Just execution.<\/em><\/span>
\n\ud83d\udc49<\/strong>\u00a0Watch Here<\/a><\/span><\/p>\n

Your World Within \u2013 90 seconds<\/strong><\/span>
\nA 3-hour motivational marathon from\u00a0Eddie Pinero\u2019s Your World Within, this video is all about tuning out the noise and tuning into your purpose. Perfect for deep work, workouts, or when you need to reset your mindset.<\/span>
\nSilence the world. Amplify your vision.<\/em><\/span>
\n\ud83d\udc49<\/strong>\u00a0Watch Here<\/a><\/span><\/p>\n

The Power of Grit \u2013 Angela Duckworth<\/strong><\/span>
\nThink success is all about talent? Think again. Psychologist Angela Duckworth breaks down why\u00a0grit\u2014passion and perseverance for long-term goals\u2014is a better predictor of success<\/em>\u00a0than IQ or raw ability.<\/span>
\nWatch this when you\u2019re doubting your potential.<\/em><\/span>
\n\ud83d\udc49 Watch Here<\/a><\/span><\/p>\n

Nothing Comes Easy<\/strong><\/span>
\nThis 2025 compilation from Motivation2Study features powerful voices like\u00a0Coach Pain, William \u201cKing\u201d Hollis, and Marcus \u201cElevation\u201d Taylor. It\u2019s a raw, honest reminder that the path to greatness is never smooth\u2014but always worth it.<\/span>
\nWhen it gets hard, that\u2019s when it matters most.<\/em><\/span>
\n\ud83d\udc49\u00a0Watch Here<\/a><\/span><\/p>\n

The Mother of 10,000 Things<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

Written more than two thousand years ago, the Tao Te Ching is one of the true classics of spiritual literature. It is a guide to cultivating a life of peace, serenity, and compassion. Through aphorisms and parable, it leads readers toward the Tao, or the \u201cWay\u201d: harmony with the life force of the universe.<\/span><\/p>\n

Watch when you need to find peace.<\/em><\/span>
\n\ud83d\udc49\u00a0Watch Here<\/a><\/span><\/p>\n

Thanks for visiting <\/b><\/span><\/h2>\n

To find out more about the TriVest team and how we manage wealth, follow us on Twitter<\/i>, <\/a>LinkedIn<\/i><\/a> or Facebook<\/i><\/a>\u00a0.\u00a0Please email us<\/a> if you want to find out more about our services.<\/span><\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

The information contained herein has been provided for information purposes only.\u00a0 The information has been drawn from sources believed to be reliable.\u00a0 Graphs, charts and other numbers are used for illustrative purposes only and do not reflect future values or future performance of any investment.\u00a0 The information does not provide financial, legal, tax or investment advice.\u00a0 Particular investment, tax, or trading strategies should be evaluated relative to each individual\u2019s objectives and risk tolerance.\u00a0 This does not constitute a recommendation or solicitation to buy or sell securities of any kind. Market conditions may change which may impact the information contained in this document. \u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

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Wellington-Altus Private Counsel Inc. (WAPC) does not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of the information contained herein, nor does WAPC assume any liability for any loss that may result from the reliance by any person upon any such information or opinions.\u00a0 Before acting on any of the above, please contact your financial advisor.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

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NO USE OR REPRODUCTION WITHOUT PERMISSION. www.wellington-altus.ca<\/a><\/span><\/p>\n

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