{"id":764,"date":"2024-08-15T17:44:31","date_gmt":"2024-08-15T17:44:31","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/advisor.wellington-altus.ca\/trivestwealthcounsel\/?p=764"},"modified":"2024-11-15T15:38:06","modified_gmt":"2024-11-15T15:38:06","slug":"august-2024-tomorrow-tomorrows-wind-will-blow","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/advisor.wellington-altus.ca\/trivestwealthcounsel\/august-2024-tomorrow-tomorrows-wind-will-blow\/","title":{"rendered":"August 2024 \u2013 Tomorrow, tomorrow&#8217;s wind will blow."},"content":{"rendered":"<p><span style=\"color: #000000\"><strong><span style=\"font-size: 10pt\">INSIDE<\/span><\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #000000\"><strong><span style=\"font-size: 10pt\">A closer look at what was behind the recent flash crash <\/span><\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-size: 10pt\">Central bank policy and currency markets are having an outsized influence on equity markets, more than many realized. The recent and unexpected meltdown and recovery was a bit of a wakeup call.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #000000\"><strong><span style=\"font-size: 10pt\">The benefits of risk-managed investing<\/span><\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-size: 10pt\">Market flash crashes provide a great test of our risk processes and strategies. Our risk-managed approach of implementing downside protection on well over three-quarters of our positions has really helped us avoid the sell off while being well positioned to capture some strong risk-adjusted returns going forward.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #000000\"><strong><span style=\"font-size: 10pt\">Update on our strategic positioning<\/span><\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-size: 10pt\">We are quite comfortable with our current positioning weighted heavily to structured notes in both the fixed income and equity space complemented by a hedged long U.S. equity, hedged U.S. small cap, Canadian oil and gas, and a strong weighting to those segments that will benefit from falling interest rates.<\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"line-height: 15px;font-size: 13px\"><span style=\"font-size: 13px;line-height: 15px\">\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"font-size: 13px;line-height: 15px\"><span style=\"font-size: 14pt;color: #000000;line-height: 24px\"><strong>August 2024 \u2013 <em>\u201cTomorrow, tomorrow&#8217;s wind will blow.\u201d<\/em><\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-size: 10pt\">Welcome to this month\u2019s Market Strategy. This edition we take a closer look at what caused the huge spike in volatility sending global markets suddenly correcting before subsequently rebounding in short order. In particular, we examine what is called \u201cthe yen carry trade\u201d and how central bank policy and currency markets have had an outsized influence on equity markets which has created some opportunities as well as some new risks.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-size: 10pt\">Our risk-managed approach was put to the test and our downside protection on well over three-quarters of our positions really helped us avoid the sell off. For example, prior to the crash we also sold some of our U.S. dividend exposure and replaced it with a hedged put spread collar on the S&amp;P 500 and did a similar trade on the Russell 2000. As a result, while many segments of the market corrected double digits, we calculate that our risk-managed balanced fund fell only 0.3 per cent giving back some of the 8.1 per cent gained year-to-date to the end of July.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-size: 10pt\">This didn\u2019t mean we were sitting idle though. Our contrarian nature had us adding those segments of the market that have nothing to do with the yen unwind but suffered losses even deeper than the tech sector, such as Canadian oil and gas, and other areas like Canadian utilities and banks that will benefit from accelerated rate cuts.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-size: 10pt\">Ultimately the Bank of Japan caved last Wednesday and was willing to let its currency continue to depreciate in order to protect its equity market. That decision resulted in a steep recovery in global risk along with a rebound in those segments that sold off the hardest.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-size: 10pt\">The lesson in all of this market drama is that there is value in being able to sleep at night\u2014especially if it means not having to stay up to follow Japanese equity and currency markets.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-size: 10pt\">Finally, we are honoured for our TriVest team to have received the Wealth Professional 5-Star Advisory Teams award. A special thank you to all of our clients out there who provided the review to Wealth Professional.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/d1sldxm8kemt77.cloudfront.net\/images\/521151b6-a7a8-40b1-bbc1-bd527c693e91\/Screenshot%202024-08-15%20071444.png\" \/><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-size: 10pt;line-height: 15px\">Hope you have a great summer, and keep investing wisely!<\/span><\/p>\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/d1sldxm8kemt77.cloudfront.net\/images\/521151b6-a7a8-40b1-bbc1-bd527c693e91\/Picture9.png\" \/><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-size: 14pt\"><strong>A closer look at what was behind the recent market volatility<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-size: 10pt\">The market volatility we\u2019ve seen over the past two weeks has been quite astounding to watch. The Volatility index rocketed higher as investors sold equity positions across the board with more speculative assets like U.S. tech, and crypto getting hit the hardest.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-size: 10pt\">It all started with some weaker U.S. economic data on Thursday, July 31 and Friday, August 1 following the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting on Wednesday July 30. Traders reacted by taking <a href=\"https:\/\/x.com\/TheStalwart\/status\/1819355060792443207\">the probability<\/a> for a 50 basis point rate from 11 per cent up to 70 per cent while the Bank of Japan hiked 25 basis points.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-size: 10pt\">This wasn\u2019t about worries over a U.S. recession but rather a massive liquidity squeeze as investors have been borrowing in yen and investing in U.S. assets like big tech. With the Bank of Japan hiking rates and the expectation of a larger rate drop by the U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed), it caused a portion of the U.S. $4 trillion yen carry trade to unwind and quickly.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-size: 10pt\">Don\u2019t kid yourself, this has been a powerful liquidity trade. For example, we calculate that the yen has depreciated nearly 35 per cent against the U.S. dollar since its January 2021 highs to its mid-July 2024 lows while the Nasdaq was up nearly 50 per cent over the same period.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/d1sldxm8kemt77.cloudfront.net\/images\/521151b6-a7a8-40b1-bbc1-bd527c693e91\/Picture5_1.png\" \/><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-size: 10pt\">Interestingly, we noticed a lot of panicking among those in the more speculative assets such as tech with calls for the U.S. Federal Reserve to do an emergency rate cut. Wharton&#8217;s Jeremy Siegel led the charge as only three days into this unwind and he was calling for a 150-basis point cut.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-size: 10pt\">However, given the current situation we find it astounding that they would make such a demand but perhaps it\u2019s out of habit of getting bailed out by the Fed many times over the past decade.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-size: 10pt\">If U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Powell was more dovish and indicated a 50-basis point potential drop in September and\/or went 25 basis points on their July 30 Wednesday meeting, imagine the impact that would have had on the markets accelerating the depth and size of the yen carry trade unwind. Then think about what would happen if the Fed took Siegel\u2019s advice.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-size: 10pt\">There are a couple of important take aways for investors here.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-size: 10pt\">Markets don\u2019t always go up, and as Charlie Bilello of Creative Planning said, \u201csuffering through drawdowns is the price of admission for long-term investors, without which there would be no reward.\u201d This is especially the case for younger investors who are early in their savings and can take advantage of price sales in the market by averaging in.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-size: 10pt\">For those older investors, corrections like these are a fantastic \u201cgut-check\u201d as to your ability to emotionally withstand corrections to your portfolio especially if it\u2019s important for you to keep pace with the hottest market segments.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-size: 10pt\">We have taken a different approach by focusing on risk-managed returns by implementing downside protection on well over three-quarters of our positions. This means that while we will not fully track high growth segments of the market it also means we won\u2019t move to the downside. For example, while many of these segments corrected double digits, we estimate that our risk-managed balanced fund fell only 0.3 per cent at the lows of the meltdown giving back some of the 8.1 per cent gained year-to-date to the end of July.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/d1sldxm8kemt77.cloudfront.net\/images\/521151b6-a7a8-40b1-bbc1-bd527c693e91\/Picture7_2.png\" \/><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-size: 10pt\">This didn\u2019t mean we were sitting idle though as our contrarian nature also had us adding those segments of the market that have nothing to do with the yen unwind but suffered losses even deeper than the tech sector such as Canadian oil and gas, and other areas like Canadian utilities and banks that will benefit from accelerated rate cuts.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-size: 10pt\">The good news in the end was that the Bank of Japan caved last Wednesday and indicated no further rate hikes as long as markets are unstable resulting in a steep recovery in global risk, and in those segments that sold off the hardest\u2014for now. It is almost as if the correction never happened, but it did, and there is a lesson or two to be gained from it.<\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"line-height: 15px;font-size: 13px\"><span style=\"font-size: 14pt;color: #000000;line-height: 24px\"><strong>The power of choosing your own path when investing<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-size: 10pt\">Nothing is more powerful than greed and envy when it comes to money. Greed is relatively easy to understand, but in order for envy to be a driving force, you need to have a baseline or reference point to compare to something else that is better than your present situation. Or as Warren Buffett once said, \u201cIt is not greed that drives the world but envy.\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-size: 10pt\">Those in the sales industry know this all too well. For example, a common tactic among realtors is to purposely show their clients a few not-so-desirable homes first and then follow it up at the end with more attractive homes they think their clients would want to buy.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-size: 10pt\">We\u2019ve seen investment advisers deploying a similar anchoring or benchmarking tactic, such as comparing their tech-heavy portfolio\u2019s performance this year against lacklustre indexes such as those in Canada and Europe or even the equal-weight S&amp;P 500 as a means to secure new business.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-size: 10pt\">You don\u2019t own\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/financialpost.com\/tag\/nvidia-corp\/\">Nvidia Corp.<\/a>? Don\u2019t worry, they say, you didn\u2019t miss out since market pundit Tom Lee\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/x.com\/TreGraves_\/status\/1815820893454754178\">recently said<\/a>\u00a0it has the potential to be a 10-bagger over the next 10 years, giving it a market value greater than the entire U.S. economy.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-size: 10pt\">Exchange-traded funds (ETFs) and other fund launches often feed into this and correspond with the hottest market segment, knowing full well there is an excellent correlation between fund flows and recent performance.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-size: 10pt\">I\u2019m sure we\u2019re not alone in noticing that the most-traded and\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/financialpost.com\/tag\/etfs\/\">fastest-growing ETFs<\/a>\u00a0happen to be those <a href=\"https:\/\/www.tradingview.com\/markets\/etfs\/funds-most-traded\/\">focused on the Nasdaq or semiconductors<\/a>. Feel like you missed out? It\u2019s OK, play catch-up by owning the leveraged version of the index, which we\u2019re all too happy to provide, fund providers say.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-size: 10pt\">The problem with envy is that you\u2019re never going to be happy because there is always going to be someone or something better out there. It could even prove to be destructive if you take greater and greater risks to try to beat everyone else.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-size: 10pt\">This is why we\u2019re a huge fan of investing based on your own goals and objectives and designing strategies around achieving them while minimizing the risk. Suddenly, it isn\u2019t about beating everyone else, but doing your own thing.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-size: 10pt\">Let\u2019s give you an example of one such strategy we\u2019ve deployed that suits this approach.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-size: 10pt\">There has been a lot of market talk around the sustainability of the recent rotation out of U.S. large caps into U.S. small caps, which will benefit from an improvement in the broader economic outlook of the U.S. economy. Unfortunately, this rally resulted in a structured note paying us a nice 10.3 per cent coupon on the iShares Russell 2000 ETF being called away, leaving us with funds to redeploy.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-size: 10pt\">So, we bought the ETF outright, paired with an at-the-money put through to January 2025 and made it costless by selling an out-of-the-money put and call with the same strike date. As a result, the payoff profile is such that our new position on the Russell 2000 will have a capped upside of eight per cent over the next six months and full downside protection on the first 13 per cent in case we get it wrong and the U.S. economy stalls.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-size: 10pt\">An eight per cent return over six months may not be sexy for those chasing tech stocks, but it more than meets the goals and objectives for all our clients.<\/span><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p style=\"font-size: 13px;line-height: 15px\"><span style=\"font-size: 14pt;color: #000000;line-height: 24px\"><strong>Our tactical positioning<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-size: 10pt\">Currently, within our TWC Risk-Managed Balanced Growth fund, we\u2019re running about 8 per cent cash and money market paying about 5 per cent in interest, 3.4 per cent in U.S. floating rate bonds paying nearly 6 per cent, 4 per cent in a 1.2 times 20-Year Treasury note with 20 per cent downside protection (our recession hedge), 21 per cent in fixed income structured notes with 100 per cent principal protection and yields ranging from 7.0 to 8.5 per cent and about 3 per cent equity tracking principal protected notes.<\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"line-height: 14px\"><span style=\"font-size: 13px;line-height: 15px\"><br \/>\n<img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/d1sldxm8kemt77.cloudfront.net\/images\/521151b6-a7a8-40b1-bbc1-bd527c693e91\/Picture8_2.png\" \/><br \/>\n<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-size: 10pt\">We also have a 30 per cent weighting to equity structured notes, generating some fantastic yields with embedded downside protection ranging from 25 to 50 per cent. Some of the yearly autocallables we\u2019ve written over the past year to two years have been getting called away, locking in some strong double-digit returns along with some monthly contingents that have been generating 8 to 12 per cent annual returns with most outperforming their underlying equity indices.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-size: 10pt\">We have replaced a lot of our yearly autocallables with monthly contingents as we like them from a risk standpoint in a market that appears to be a bit shaky with more downside.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-size: 10pt\">For example, we did one on the Canadian pipes paying an annualized 11.52 per cent out monthly with 25 per cent downside and one on $BNS, $BCE, $EMA, $ENB, $TC, $T that is paying an annualized 10.23 per cent out monthly with 30 per cent downside. We did a 100 per cent principal protected note on Canadian Blue Chips that will pay a 40 per coupon if the index is between 0 to 40 per cent over the next 42 months, and track one-for-one any index returns above that.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-size: 10pt\">We also implemented a put spread collar trade on the IWM ETF representing the Russell 2000 through to January 2025. It will have a capped upside return of 8.5 per cent with full protection on the first 15 per cent of a correction. Finally, we replaced our U.S. dividend exposure with the <a href=\"https:\/\/www.simplify.us\/etfs\/heqt-simplify-hedged-equity-etf\">Simplify Hedged equity ETF (HEQT)<\/a> which is an ETF that ladders the put spread collar trade into the next forward 3 months offering decent capped upside and downside protection.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-size: 10pt\">As a result, nearly our entire U.S. equity exposure has decent downside protection in case things get rocky over the next few months especially heading into the U.S. election. In total, about 85 per cent of our total strategy portfolio has embedded downside protection with decent upside return potential at a time when things are getting more volatile in global markets.<\/span><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #000000;font-size: 14pt;line-height: 24px\"><strong>In the media<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-size: 10pt\"><strong>BNN Bloomberg: <\/strong>Martin shares our thoughts on the market volatility we\u2019ve seen over the past few trading days, what was behind it and the importance of understanding the relationship between risk and return. <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/9mZ0BRWoUC\">Watch Here<\/a><\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-size: 10pt\"><strong>Financial Post: <\/strong>While equity market volatility has picked up considerably, most of Main Street in Canada are suffering the effects of a seriously weakening economy. Martin\u2019s piece on why we\u2019re worried about the collapsing Canadian economy and some ways to protect yourself. <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/F1zDRJotGV\">Read Here<\/a><\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-size: 10pt\"><strong>BNN Bloomberg:<\/strong> Martin shares our thoughts on $BCE, some ways we&#8217;re positioning around it as a trade, the market sell off after sleeping on yesterday&#8217;s FOMC, and some hedged strategies we&#8217;ve been deploying via $IWM and $HEQT. <a href=\"https:\/\/www.bnnbloomberg.ca\/video\/shows\/trading-day\/2024\/08\/01\/bce-focused-on-cost-management\/\">Watch Here<\/a><\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-size: 10pt\"><strong>Unusual Whales: <\/strong>This episode of the Unusual Whales Pod was recorded Live on July 31, 2024 prior to and after the FOMC interest rate decision. Our panel of experts cover all topics from gold and commodities, to international inflation sentiment, as well as the overall outlook in the markets for the latter half of 2024. <a href=\"https:\/\/lnkd.in\/g4WXye77\">Listen Here<\/a><\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-size: 10pt\"><strong>Financial Post:<\/strong> Martin zeroes in on the biggest risk to your wealth and happiness\u2014envy. And some strategies we&#8217;ve been deploying to minimize this from impacting your portfolio. <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/xr776tqg2n\">Read Here<\/a><\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-size: 10pt\"><strong>BNN Bloomberg:<\/strong> Stocks rise as investors look beyond Biden\u2019s exit. Laura Lau, CIO of Brompton Group, Martin Pelletier, senior portfolio manager for Trivest Wealth at Wellington-Altus Private Counsel, David Doyle, head of economics at Macquarie Group, join BNN Bloomberg to discuss investing strategies amid uncertainty. <a href=\"https:\/\/bnnbloomberg.ca\/video\/shows\/the-open\/2024\/07\/22\/stocks-rise-as-investors-look-beyond-biden-exit-2\/\">Watch Here<\/a><\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-size: 10pt\"><strong>BNN Bloomberg:<\/strong> Part I &#8211;\u00a0Portfolio manager Martin Pelletier predicts strong Q2 U.S. stock season straying away from tech. <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/WgJ1cmGAD2\">Watch Here<\/a> Part II &#8211; Some strategies we&#8217;re deploying heading into the second half of 2024. <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/bHGOpzfPCU\">Watch Here<\/a><\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-size: 10pt\"><strong>Financial Post:<\/strong> Martin\u2019s column on the dangers of FOMO chasing the S&amp;P 500 as there isn\u2019t always safety in the herd. So perhaps it\u2019s worth considering investing based on your own goals and objectives and not trying to keep up with or beat everyone else? <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/y9KrA3zLbP\">Read Here<\/a><\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-size: 10pt\"><strong>BNN Bloomberg:<\/strong> Martin\u2019s thoughts on this market environment, some of the risks of an overly concentrated U.S. equity market, the falling CAD, bonds, and some ways we&#8217;re positioning. <a href=\"https:\/\/ampvideo.bnnbloomberg.ca\/video\/major-risks-for-the-market~2951070\">Watch Here<\/a><\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-size: 10pt\"><strong>UPCOMING EVENT:<\/strong> We&#8217;re thrilled to have Martin join us. With over 20 years of experience in the investment industry and an admirable track record as a Senior Portfolio Manager at Wellington-Altus Private Counsel, Martin&#8217;s expertise will be invaluable to the event. His impressive credentials and media presence make him a standout in the field. Welcome aboard, Martin!<\/span><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p style=\"font-size: 13px;line-height: 15px\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/d1sldxm8kemt77.cloudfront.net\/images\/521151b6-a7a8-40b1-bbc1-bd527c693e91\/Picture9.jpg\" \/><\/p>\n<p style=\"line-height: 15px;font-size: 13px\"><span style=\"font-size: 14pt;line-height: 15px\"><strong><span style=\"color: #000000;line-height: 14px\"><span style=\"line-height: 24px\">What we\u2019re reading<\/span><\/span><\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-size: 10pt\"><strong>U.S. tech layoffs. <\/strong>In 2024, tech companies have laid off +126,032 people. <a href=\"https:\/\/x.com\/GRDecter\/status\/1820856443018326222\">See Here<\/a><\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-size: 10pt\"><strong>U.S. earnings season. <\/strong>This has been the most volatile earnings season since the Global Financial Crisis according to Goldman Sachs. <a href=\"https:\/\/pbs.twimg.com\/media\/GT8pGrdXsAEMGtg?format=jpg&amp;name=small\">See Here<\/a><\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-size: 10pt\"><strong>Goldman bull or bear? <\/strong>Compared to the previous bull market correction, the current S&amp;P 500 drawdown has been sharper, tracking the average bear market. <a href=\"https:\/\/pbs.twimg.com\/media\/GUS83yoWoAAl3i0?format=png&amp;name=900x900\">See Here<\/a><\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-size: 10pt\"><strong>Yen carry trade unwind is only about halfway finished, JPMorgan warns. <\/strong>\u201dWe think that the carry trade unwind within the speculative investing community is maybe somewhere between 50% and 60% complete.\u201d <a href=\"https:\/\/www.marketwatch.com\/story\/yen-carry-trade-unwind-is-only-about-halfway-finished-jpmorgan-warns-c730f744\">Read Here<\/a><\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-size: 10pt\"><strong>Markets must navigate well beyond one bounce.<\/strong> The selloff\u2019s damage to the tectonic plates of global finance won\u2019t be clear for weeks. <a href=\"https:\/\/x.com\/MPelletierCIO\/status\/1821204030141645036\">Read Here<\/a><\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-size: 10pt\"><strong>Warren Buffett&#8217;s Berkshire Hathaway sold nearly half its stake in Apple. <\/strong>Isn\u2019t this an interesting development especially considering how much cash he is already sitting on. <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/YX1R9DzUfz\">Read Here<\/a> Also, did Buffett learn from his positioning in Coke? \u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/x.com\/i\/status\/1820135570561183790\">Watch Here<\/a><\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-size: 10pt\"><strong>What if Generative AI turned out to be a Dud? <\/strong>\u201cI just wrote a great piece for WIRED predicting that the AI bubble will collapse in 2025, and now I wish I hadn\u2019t. Clearly, I got the year wrong. It\u2019s going to be days or weeks from now, not months.\u201d <a href=\"https:\/\/garymarcus.substack.com\/p\/what-if-generative-ai-turned-out\">Read Here<\/a><\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-size: 10pt\"><strong>Commodities once again a hated trade. <\/strong>Hedge funds turn bearish on commodities for the first time in more than 8 years. <a href=\"https:\/\/pbs.twimg.com\/media\/GUCU8Y0WMAA8OZc?format=png&amp;name=small\">See Here<\/a><\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-size: 10pt\"><strong>\u201c\u2019Quite striking\u2019 oil markets haven\u2019t pre-emptively priced in Mideast tension.\u201d <\/strong>Daniel Yergin, S&amp;P Global vice chairman and \u2018The New Map\u2019 author, joins \u2018Squawk Box\u2019 to discuss the state of the energy sector, impact of Middle East tensions on oil supplies, and more. <a href=\"https:\/\/www.cnbc.com\/video\/2024\/08\/06\/sp-globals-dan-yergin-quite-striking-oil-markets-havent-preemptively-priced-in-mideast-tension.html\">Read Here<\/a><\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-size: 10pt\"><strong>Aramco CEO says oil demand is strong and recent selloff was overreaction. <\/strong>Saudi oil giant sees demand \u201cnorth of 106 million b\/d\u201d in 2025 and \u201crobust\u201d oil use points to \u201cfairly healthy\u201d market: CEO <a href=\"https:\/\/www.bloomberg.com\/news\/articles\/2024-08-06\/aramco-ceo-says-oil-demand-is-strong-and-recent-selloff-was-overreaction?utm_source=twitter&amp;utm_content=middleeast&amp;utm_medium=social&amp;utm_campaign=socialflow-organic&amp;sref=f2E6A62x\">Read Here<\/a><\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-size: 10pt\"><strong>A bit of a bias here? <\/strong>A closer look at how the EIA has consistently underestimated oil and gasoline demand in their reporting.\u00a0 <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/Ue883FLaPe\">Read Here<\/a><\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-size: 10pt\"><strong>What career risk looks like<\/strong>. If you diverge too far from what others are doing and miss out on the rally you face redemptions and getting fired. If you participate in the correction, you have the excuse that everyone else is doing poorly as well. This is how our industry works. <a href=\"https:\/\/pbs.twimg.com\/media\/GTqeR1HXMAAumby?format=png&amp;name=small\">See Here<\/a><\/span><\/p>\n<p><strong style=\"color: #000000;font-size: 14pt\"><span style=\"line-height: 24px\">On the Positive<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/d1sldxm8kemt77.cloudfront.net\/images\/521151b6-a7a8-40b1-bbc1-bd527c693e91\/Picture10_1.jpg\" \/>\u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0\u00a0 <img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/d1sldxm8kemt77.cloudfront.net\/images\/521151b6-a7a8-40b1-bbc1-bd527c693e91\/Picture11.jpg\" \/><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-size: 10pt\"><strong>Words. <\/strong>Words have power. Words can be our power. Words can unite or divide. Words can spit venom or can mend a broken soul. Words matter. <a href=\"https:\/\/x.com\/i\/status\/1821129113345663266\">Watch Here<\/a><\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-size: 10pt\"><strong>Effort does not change the person. <\/strong>You truly win the love of others not by the practice of techniques but by being a certain kind of person. And that is never achieved through effort and techniques. And so, it is with spirituality and holiness. Not what you do is what brings it to you. This is not a commodity that one can buy or a prize that one can win. What matters is what you are, what you become. <a href=\"https:\/\/www.awakin.org\/v2\/read\/view.php?tid=2629\">Read Here<\/a><\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-size: 10pt\"><strong>Now that\u2019s winning. <\/strong>He sacrificed becoming a world champion to help his brother cross the finish line!\u00a0 This is a precious moment that will never be forgotten in a lifetime. <a href=\"https:\/\/x.com\/i\/status\/1819865187773768115\">Watch Here<\/a><\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-size: 10pt\"><strong>Quantum computing. <\/strong>The next decade is going to be amazing. <a href=\"https:\/\/x.com\/i\/status\/1819175575434809499\">Watch Here<\/a><\/span><\/p>\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/d1sldxm8kemt77.cloudfront.net\/images\/521151b6-a7a8-40b1-bbc1-bd527c693e91\/Screenshot%202024-08-14%20155812_1.png\" \/><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<table style=\"border-collapse: collapse;width: 100%\">\n<tbody>\n<tr>\n<td style=\"width: 22.375%\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/d1sldxm8kemt77.cloudfront.net\/images\/521151b6-a7a8-40b1-bbc1-bd527c693e91\/Picture15.jpg\" \/><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-size: 10pt;line-height: 14px\">Martin Pelletier is an investment pro columnist for the Financial Post. His columns can be <a style=\"text-decoration: underline\" href=\"https:\/\/financialpost.com\/author\/mpelletiernp\/\">read here<\/a> every Monday afternoon as well as his active <a style=\"text-decoration: underline\" href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/MPelletierCIO\">Twitter feed.<\/a><\/span><\/p>\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/d1sldxm8kemt77.cloudfront.net\/images\/521151b6-a7a8-40b1-bbc1-bd527c693e91\/Picture17.png\" \/><\/p>\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/d1sldxm8kemt77.cloudfront.net\/images\/521151b6-a7a8-40b1-bbc1-bd527c693e91\/Picture18.png\" \/><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/td>\n<td style=\"width: 77.625%\"><span style=\"font-size: 18px;line-height: 21px;color: #000000\"><strong>Thanks for Visiting<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-size: 10pt;line-height: 15px\">To find out more about the TriVest team and how we manage wealth, and follow us on <a style=\"text-decoration: underline\" href=\"https:\/\/trivestwealth.benchmarkurl.com\/c\/l?u=EAD5967&amp;e=155B670&amp;c=26A57&amp;t=1&amp;l=14EDCEC2&amp;email=14EQZVVJkTquuucOV2pnHcUwVYmFuk0yJTjeawJ2Q4s%3D&amp;seq=1\"><em>Twitter<\/em>, <\/a><a style=\"text-decoration: underline\" href=\"https:\/\/trivestwealth.benchmarkurl.com\/c\/l?u=EAD5968&amp;e=155B670&amp;c=26A57&amp;t=1&amp;l=14EDCEC2&amp;email=14EQZVVJkTquuucOV2pnHcUwVYmFuk0yJTjeawJ2Q4s%3D&amp;seq=1\"><em>LinkedIn<\/em><\/a> or <a style=\"text-decoration: underline\" href=\"https:\/\/trivestwealth.benchmarkurl.com\/c\/l?u=EAD5969&amp;e=155B670&amp;c=26A57&amp;t=1&amp;l=14EDCEC2&amp;email=14EQZVVJkTquuucOV2pnHcUwVYmFuk0yJTjeawJ2Q4s%3D&amp;seq=1\"><em>Facebook<\/em><\/a>.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/d1sldxm8kemt77.cloudfront.net\/images\/521151b6-a7a8-40b1-bbc1-bd527c693e91\/Picture16.png\" \/><\/p>\n<p style=\"font-size: 11px;line-height: 13px\"><span style=\"font-size: 10pt;line-height: 13px\"><span style=\"font-size: 8pt\">The information contained herein has been provided for information purposes only.\u00a0 The information has been drawn from sources believed to be reliable.\u00a0 Graphs, charts and other numbers are used for illustrative purposes only and do not reflect future values or future performance of any investment.\u00a0 The information does not provide financial, legal, tax or investment advice.\u00a0 Particular investment, tax, or trading strategies should be evaluated relative to each individual\u2019s objectives and risk tolerance.\u00a0 This does not constitute a recommendation or solicitation to buy or sell securities of any kind. Market conditions may change which may impact the information contained in this document. \u00a0<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"font-size: 11px;line-height: 13px\"><span style=\"font-size: 8pt;line-height: 13px\">Transactions of the type described herein may involve a high degree of risk, and the value of such instruments may be highly volatile. Such risks may include without limitation risk of adverse or unanticipated market developments, risk of issuer default and risk of illiquidity. In certain transactions counterparties may lose their entire investment or incur an unlimited loss. \u00a0This brief statement does not disclose all the risks and other significant aspects in connection with transactions of the type described herein, and counterparties should ensure that they fully understand the terms of the transaction, including the relevant risk factors and any legal, tax, regulatory and accounting considerations applicable to them, prior to transacting. \u00a0This report may contain links to third-party websites. WAPC is not responsible for the content of any third-party website or any linked content contained in a third-party website. The inclusion of a link in this report does not imply any endorsement by or any affiliation with WAPC. \u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"font-size: 11px;line-height: 13px\"><span style=\"font-size: 8pt;line-height: 13px\">Structured Notes are not suitable for all investors. The notes do not pay dividends, nor do the dividends paid on the underlying constituent\u2019s factor into the return calculation that determines your return. The protection and potential augmented returns on these notes are only available when held to maturity.\u202fThese notes do not offer any protection if they are sold before the maturity date. If sold before the maturity date, returns may be positive or negative. These examples are for illustrative purposes only and should not be construed as an estimate or forecast of the performance of the Index or the return that an investor might realize on the Notes.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"font-size: 11px;line-height: 13px\"><span style=\"font-size: 8pt;line-height: 13px\">Wellington-Altus Private Counsel Inc. (WAPC) does not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of the information contained herein, nor does WAPC assume any liability for any loss that may result from the reliance by any person upon any such information or opinions.\u00a0 Before acting on any of the above, please contact your financial advisor.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"font-size: 11px;line-height: 13px\"><span style=\"font-size: 8pt;line-height: 13px\">All trademarks are the property of their respective owners.<\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"font-size: 11px;line-height: 13px\"><span style=\"font-size: 8pt;line-height: 13px\">\u00a9 2024, Wellington-Altus Private Counsel Inc.\u00a0 ALL RIGHTS RESERVED.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"font-size: 11px;line-height: 13px\"><span style=\"font-size: 8pt;line-height: 13px\">NO USE OR REPRODUCTION WITHOUT PERMISSION. <\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"font-size: 11px;line-height: 13px\"><span style=\"font-size: 8pt;line-height: 13px\"><a style=\"text-decoration: underline\" href=\"http:\/\/www.wellington-altus.ca\">www.wellington-altus.ca<\/a><\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Welcome to this month\u2019s Market Strategy. This edition we take a closer look at what caused the huge spike in volatility sending global markets suddenly correcting before subsequently rebounding in short order. In particular, we examine what is called \u201cthe yen carry trade\u201d and how central bank policy and currency markets have had an outsized influence on equity markets which has created some opportunities as well as some new risks.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":229,"featured_media":770,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_oasis_is_in_workflow":0,"_oasis_original":0,"_oasis_task_priority":"","_exactmetrics_skip_tracking":false,"_exactmetrics_sitenote_active":false,"_exactmetrics_sitenote_note":"","_exactmetrics_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[22],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-764","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-monthly-market-research"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/advisor.wellington-altus.ca\/trivestwealthcounsel\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/764","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/advisor.wellington-altus.ca\/trivestwealthcounsel\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/advisor.wellington-altus.ca\/trivestwealthcounsel\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/advisor.wellington-altus.ca\/trivestwealthcounsel\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/229"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/advisor.wellington-altus.ca\/trivestwealthcounsel\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=764"}],"version-history":[{"count":3,"href":"https:\/\/advisor.wellington-altus.ca\/trivestwealthcounsel\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/764\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":792,"href":"https:\/\/advisor.wellington-altus.ca\/trivestwealthcounsel\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/764\/revisions\/792"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/advisor.wellington-altus.ca\/trivestwealthcounsel\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/770"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/advisor.wellington-altus.ca\/trivestwealthcounsel\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=764"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/advisor.wellington-altus.ca\/trivestwealthcounsel\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=764"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/advisor.wellington-altus.ca\/trivestwealthcounsel\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=764"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}