{"id":1334,"date":"2023-11-13T15:23:35","date_gmt":"2023-11-13T15:23:35","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/advisor.wellington-altus.ca\/wagner\/?p=1334"},"modified":"2023-11-13T15:27:34","modified_gmt":"2023-11-13T15:27:34","slug":"last-month-in-the-markets-uncertainty-breeds-volatility","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/advisor.wellington-altus.ca\/wagner\/2023\/11\/13\/last-month-in-the-markets-uncertainty-breeds-volatility\/","title":{"rendered":"Last Month in the Markets: Uncertainty Breeds Volatility"},"content":{"rendered":"

Last Month in the Markets: October 1st<\/sup> \u2013 31st<\/sup>, 2023<\/h4>\n

\"Last<\/p>\n

(source: Bloomberg https:\/\/www.bloomberg.com\/markets<\/a>, MSCI https:\/\/www.msci.com\/end-of-day-data-search<\/a> and ARG Inc. analysis)<\/span><\/p>\n

What happened in October?<\/h4>\n

The 10th<\/sup> month of 2023 provided significant uncertainty and volatility.<\/p>\n

\"Equities<\/p>\n

(source: Bloomberg https:\/\/www.bloomberg.com\/markets<\/a> and ARG Inc. analysis)<\/span><\/p>\n

Many events contributed to the bumpy ride for investors:<\/p>\n

1. September 30th<\/sup> \/ October 1st<\/sup> <\/strong><\/p>\n

Just as the month was beginning, a stop-gap measure that extended spending for an additional 45 days was found to avoid a U.S. government shutdown.\u00a0\u00a0 CNBC and “shutdown”<\/a>\u00a0 CNN and “shutdown”<\/a><\/p>\n

2. October 6th<\/sup> <\/strong><\/p>\n

\u201cTotal nonfarm payroll employment rose by 336,000 in September, and the unemployment rate was unchanged at 3.8 percent\u201d, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.\u00a0 BLS release<\/a><\/p>\n

3. October 11th<\/sup> and 12th<\/sup><\/strong><\/p>\n

On two consecutive days U.S. producer and consumer inflation data was released.\u00a0 The Producer Price Index (PPI) increased 0.5% in September, down slightly from 0.7% in August.\u00a0 Year-over-year prices advanced 2.2%, which is the largest increase since April. Consumer prices rose 0.4% in September, down from 0.6% in August. Over the last 12 months the Consumer Price Index (CPI) has risen 3.7%, which is the same reading as in August.\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 BLS PPI release<\/a>\u00a0\u00a0 BLS CPI release<\/a><\/p>\n

4. October 17th<\/sup><\/strong><\/p>\n

Canada\u2019s CPI was lower than expected.\u00a0 On a year-over-year basis consumer prices rose 3.8% in September, slightly lower than the 4.0% gain measured in August.\u00a0 The slowing of price increases was led by travel, durable goods, and groceries.\u00a0 Gasoline rose 7.5% on an annualized basis, compared to August\u2019s 0.8% increase.\u00a0 Excluding gasoline, the CPI rose 3.7% in September.\u00a0 CBC and CPI<\/a>\u00a0\u00a0 StatsCan CPI release<\/a><\/p>\n

5. October 18th<\/sup> to 23rd<\/sup>\u00a0 <\/strong><\/p>\n

The U.S. corporate earnings season began as a mixed bag.\u00a0 The number of positive earnings surprises and the magnitude of the earnings surprises are slightly below the 10-year averages.\u00a0 The reaction of the markets suggests that investors were less than impressed.\u00a0 Factset and Q3 earnings<\/a><\/p>\n

6. October 25th<\/sup> <\/strong><\/p>\n

The Bank of Canada made a monetary policy announcement that kept the policy interest rate unchanged.\u00a0 According to the press release, \u201cInflation has been easing in most economies, as supply bottlenecks resolve, and weaker demand relieves price pressures. However, with underlying inflation persisting, central banks continue to be vigilant.\u201d This may provide insight into the U.S. Federal Reserve\u2019s next announcement.\u00a0 BoC Press Release<\/a>\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 CBC and BoC<\/a><\/p>\n

7. October 26th<\/sup> <\/strong><\/p>\n

U.S. GDP grew faster than expected during the third quarter.\u00a0 The annualized pace was 4.9%.\u00a0 The expanding economy, and inflation above goal, may serve as a rationale for the Federal Reserve to tighten monetary policy by raising interest rates, but traders see that as unlikely. CNBC and GDP<\/a>\u00a0 BEA release<\/a><\/p>\n

8. October 27th<\/sup> <\/strong><\/p>\n

The U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis released the Personal Consumption and Expenditures (PCE) price index.\u00a0 In September, the most recent reporting period, personal income rose 0.3%, and the PCE price index rose 0.4%.\u00a0 Core PCE (excluding volatile food and energy) increased 3.7% on a year-over-year basis.\u00a0 Core PCE peaked at 5.6% in early 2022, and has fallen steadily, but remains well above the Fed\u2019s target of 2%.\u00a0 The PCE is the Federal Reserve\u2019s primary inflation indicator. It was reported a few days ahead of the next U.S. interest rate announcement.\u00a0 BEA and PCE<\/a> CNBC and PCE<\/a><\/p>\n

9. October 31st<\/sup> <\/strong><\/p>\n

According to StatsCan, \u201cReal gross domestic product (GDP) was essentially unchanged for a second consecutive month in August as factors such as higher interest rates, inflation, forest fires and drought conditions continued to weigh on the economy.\u201d\u00a0 StatsCan release<\/a><\/p>\n

What\u2019s ahead for November and beyond in 2023?<\/h4>\n

On November 1st<\/sup>, the Federal Reserve announced that it was holding interest rates unchanged.\u00a0 The Federal Funds rate will remain in the range of 5\u00bc to 5\u00bd%.\u00a0 Fed Chair, Jerome Powell, said that rate reductions have not been considered or discussed for the next interest-rate meeting in December.\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 CNBC and Fed release<\/a>\u00a0\u00a0 Fed release and press conference<\/a><\/p>\n

Regarding the conflict in the Middle East, the focus of our practice will continue to be the financial futures of our clients and their families.\u00a0 The situation will be continuously monitored for effects on local clients.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Wagner Investment Management Team<\/em> contributors: Susyn Wagner & Karen Routledge & Patti Dolan<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

On November 1st, the Federal Reserve announced that it was holding interest rates unchanged.\u00a0 The Federal Funds rate will remain in the range of 5\u00bc to 5\u00bd%.\u00a0 Fed Chair, Jerome Powell, said that rate reductions have not been considered or discussed for the next interest-rate meeting in December.\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":149,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_oasis_is_in_workflow":0,"_oasis_original":0,"_oasis_task_priority":"","_exactmetrics_skip_tracking":false,"_exactmetrics_sitenote_active":false,"_exactmetrics_sitenote_note":"","_exactmetrics_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[15],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-1334","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-market-insights"],"yoast_head":"\nLast Month in the Markets: Uncertainty Breeds Volatility - Wagner Investment Management Team<\/title>\n<meta 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