{"id":1381,"date":"2023-12-07T17:32:37","date_gmt":"2023-12-07T17:32:37","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/advisor.wellington-altus.ca\/wagner\/?p=1381"},"modified":"2024-01-10T20:37:33","modified_gmt":"2024-01-10T20:37:33","slug":"last-month-in-the-markets-healthy-gains-across-north-american-markets","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/advisor.wellington-altus.ca\/wagner\/2023\/12\/07\/last-month-in-the-markets-healthy-gains-across-north-american-markets\/","title":{"rendered":"Last Month In The Markets: Healthy Gains Across North American Markets"},"content":{"rendered":"

Last Month in the Markets: November 1st<\/sup> \u2013 30th<\/sup>, 2023<\/span><\/h2>\n

\"Last<\/p>\n

(source: Bloomberg https:\/\/www.bloomberg.com\/markets<\/a>, MSCI https:\/\/www.msci.com\/end-of-day-data-search<\/a> and ARG Inc. analysis)<\/span><\/p>\n

What happened in November?\u00a0\u00a0<\/span><\/h2>\n

The major North American indexes were led by the NASDAQ with a 10\u00bd percent increase, the Dow and S&P 500 at nearly 9 percent, and the TSX delivered a very healthy gain of more than 7 percent.<\/p>\n

Gold continued to perform well despite a calming, or at least the sense of calming, in political and geopolitical uncertainty.\u00a0 President Biden and Chinese President Xi met in San Francisco ahead of the Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation summit to thaw relations between the two countries.\u00a0 A U.S. government shutdown was averted mid-month after passing a bipartisan spending and debt bill.\u00a0 The war between Hamas and Israel paused to allow humanitarian aid into Gaza, and a hostage\/prisoner exchange.<\/p>\n

The month concluded with positive inflation news from the U.S., and growing analyst expectations that the Federal Reserve and other central banks, like the Bank of Canada, could begin cutting rates in 2024.<\/p>\n

\"Equities<\/p>\n

\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 (source: Bloomberg https:\/\/www.bloomberg.com\/markets <\/a>and ARG Inc. analysis)<\/span><\/p>\n

Many events contributed to the up-and-up-and-up month for investors:<\/p>\n

    \n
  1. November 1st<\/sup> <\/strong><\/li>\n<\/ol>\n

    The U.S. Federal Reserve held the federal funds rate unchanged, and within a range of 5\u00bc to 5\u00bd percent.\u00a0 Although, no promises of rate reductions were offered, the continuation in the pause of rate increases caused a positive reaction in equity markets.\u00a0 North America stocks rose on the news after several weeks of poor performance.\u00a0 Fed release<\/a> CNBC equities and Fed<\/a><\/p>\n

      \n
    1. November 3rd<\/sup> <\/strong><\/li>\n<\/ol>\n

      The Canadian economy added 18,000 jobs last month, after adding 64,000 jobs in September and 40,000 in August.\u00a0 October\u2019s performance represents a slowing of the Canadian economy.\u00a0 The unemployment rate rose to 5.7%, the fourth consecutive monthly increase.\u00a0 StatsCan release<\/a><\/p>\n

      The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that nonfarm payroll had risen by 150,000 in October, and the unemployment rate rose 0.1% to 3.9%.\u00a0 Each of the major worker categories saw minor change sin unemployment rates, as a total of 6.5 million Americans were unemployed.\u00a0 BLS release<\/a><\/p>\n

        \n
      1. November 9th<\/sup><\/strong><\/li>\n<\/ol>\n

        Federal Reserve Chair, Jerome Powell, stated at an International Monetary Fund meeting that interest rates may not be high enough, yet, to bring inflation back to the 2% target, again demonstrating the sensitivity of markets to interest rate speculation. AP and Powell<\/a><\/p>\n

          \n
        1. November 14th<\/sup> <\/strong><\/li>\n<\/ol>\n

          The U.S. annualized Consumer Price Index increased 3.2%, down from September\u2019s year-over-year inflation of 3.7%.\u00a0 The rise in the price of shelter was offset by the decline in the price of gasoline.\u00a0 The Federal Reserve\u2019s pause on interest rate increases appears to be well reasoned at this time.\u00a0 U.S. equity indexes rose 1\u00bd to 2\u00bd percent and the TSX jumped 1.6% for the day.\u00a0 BLS release<\/a>\u00a0 CNBC and CPI<\/a>\u00a0 More CNBC and CPI<\/a><\/p>\n

            \n
          1. November 15th<\/sup> <\/strong><\/li>\n<\/ol>\n

            After the U.S. House of Representatives passed another spending bill the day before, the Senate voted 87-11 to end the third and latest fiscal standoff ahead of a deadline.\u00a0 CNN and US Govt<\/a><\/p>\n

              \n
            1. November 21st<\/sup> <\/strong><\/li>\n<\/ol>\n

              The Canadian Consumer Price Index (CPI), rose 3.1% on a year-over-year basis for October, down from 3.8% in September.\u00a0 Gasoline prices fell by 7.8% in October and was the primary driver of lower overall inflation for Canadian households. StatsCan CPI release<\/a><\/p>\n

                \n
              1. November 23rd<\/sup> <\/strong><\/li>\n<\/ol>\n

                U.S. Thanksgiving closed markets there all-day Thursday and at 1 pm on Friday, November 24th<\/sup>.<\/p>\n

                  \n
                1. November 30th<\/sup> <\/strong><\/li>\n<\/ol>\n

                  Canadian GDP dropped 0.3% in the third quarter after rising by the same amount in the second quarter.\u00a0 Less exports, slower inventory accumulation, lower non-residential construction, greater household savings contributed to the decline.\u00a0 StatsCan GDP release<\/a><\/p>\n

                  Also, on the 30th<\/sup>, the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis released its Personal Consumption and Expenditures (PCE) price index, the Federal Reserve\u2019s primary inflation indicator.\u00a0 For the most recent period, October, the PCE rose 0.1%, and 3% from a year ago, matching analyst expectations.\u00a0\u00a0 CNBC and PCE<\/a>\u00a0 BEA PCE release<\/a>\u00a0 NYTimes and PCE<\/a><\/p>\n

                  What\u2019s ahead for December?<\/span><\/h2>\n

                  The next two interest rate announcements from the Bank of Canada and the Federal Reserve are scheduled for December 6th<\/sup> and 13th<\/sup>, respectively.\u00a0 The recent inflation news, along with employment levels, will guide the monetary policy of these two bodies.<\/p>\n

                  The most recent news from the Bureau of Economic Analysis regarding the PCE has some believing that rate cuts are more likely next year than previously thought.\u00a0 An easing of interest rates would promote consumer and corporate spending, which could lead to additional corporate profits.<\/p>\n

                  \n

                   <\/p>\n

                  Wagner Investment Management Team<\/em> contributors: Susyn Wagner & Karen Routledge & Patti Dolan<\/em><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

                  The major North American indexes were led by the NASDAQ with a 10\u00bd percent increase, the Dow and S&P 500 at nearly 9 percent, and the TSX delivered a very healthy gain of more than 7 percent.\u00a0<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":149,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_oasis_is_in_workflow":0,"_oasis_original":0,"_oasis_task_priority":"","_exactmetrics_skip_tracking":false,"_exactmetrics_sitenote_active":false,"_exactmetrics_sitenote_note":"","_exactmetrics_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[15],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-1381","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-market-insights"],"yoast_head":"\nLast Month In The Markets: Healthy Gains Across North American Markets - Wagner Investment Management Team<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, 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