{"id":1704,"date":"2024-11-05T22:35:57","date_gmt":"2024-11-05T22:35:57","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/advisor.wellington-altus.ca\/wagner\/?p=1704"},"modified":"2024-11-05T22:39:38","modified_gmt":"2024-11-05T22:39:38","slug":"last-month-in-markets-record-highs-and-rate-cuts-october-2024","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/advisor.wellington-altus.ca\/wagner\/2024\/11\/05\/last-month-in-markets-record-highs-and-rate-cuts-october-2024\/","title":{"rendered":"Last Month in Markets – Record Highs and Rate Cuts – October 2024"},"content":{"rendered":"

Last Month in the Markets: October 1 \u2013 31, 2024<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

(source: Bloomberg https:\/\/www.bloomberg.com\/markets<\/a>, MSCI https:\/\/www.msci.com\/end-of-day-data-search<\/a> and ARG Inc. analysis)<\/span><\/p>\n

What happened in October?<\/strong><\/p>\n

Record highs were set again for the S&P\/TSX Composite, S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average, and the NASDAQ almost achieved the same feat, falling just short of its highest-ever level.\u00a0Gold continued its winning-ways and rose to its highest price of all-time, ending the month almost 4 per cent higher, and 33 per cent more than its price at the beginning of 2024.\u00a0before falling again and by the end of the month it was below its 2024 starting price and significantly below the level from one year ago.\u00a0Bond yields rose more than 250 basis points.<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

(source: Bloomberg https:\/\/www.bloomberg.com\/markets<\/a>and ARG Inc. analysis)<\/span><\/p>\n

The notable events included:<\/p>\n

    \n
  1. October 4<\/strong><\/li>\n<\/ol>\n

    The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released September\u2019s nonfarm payroll report showing that 254,000 jobs were added, much higher than the 159,000 in August.\u00a0In September, 6.3 people were unemployed.\u00a0The unemployment rate in September was essentially unchanged at 4.1 per cent compared with 4.2 per cent in August.<\/p>\n

    CNBC and nonfarm payrolls<\/a>. BLS Employment Situation Report: September 2024\u00a0\u00a0<\/a><\/p>\n

      \n
    1. October 9<\/strong><\/li>\n<\/ol>\n

      The U.S. Federal Reserve (the Fed) released the meeting minutes from their last Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)<\/a> interest rate decision on September 18.\u00a0Committee members were divided between a 0.25 and 0.5 reduction, with the larger cut ultimately carrying the vote, 11-1.\u00a0Recent jobs data suggests that a more gradual approach may have been appropriate.\u00a0 FOMC minutes<\/a>\u00a0 CNBC and FOMC<\/a><\/p>\n

        \n
      1. October 10<\/strong><\/li>\n<\/ol>\n

        According to the BLS, the Consumer Price Index rose 0.2 per cent for the month in September.\u00a0On a year-over-year basis, prices have risen 2.4 per cent, down slightly from August\u2019s annualized reading of 2.5 per cent.\u00a0In September, the index for shelter rose 0.2 per cent, and food increased 0.4 per cent.\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 BLS CPI release<\/a>\u00a0\u00a0 CNBC and CPI<\/a><\/p>\n

          \n
        1. October 11<\/strong><\/li>\n<\/ol>\n

          According to Statistics Canada\u2019s (StatsCan) Labour Force Survey for September, employment rose by 47,000 and the unemployment rate fell 0.1 per centage points to 6.5 per cent.\u00a0Full-time employment saw the largest monthly increase since May 2022.\u00a0Gains were made by youth and core-aged women.\u00a0The information, culture, and recreation (+22,000), wholesale and retail trade (+22,000) and professional, scientific and technical services (+21,000) sectors added the most employees.\u00a0The consensus remains that the condition of the economy continues to encourage the Bank of Canada (BoC) to continue cutting rates.\u00a0 StatsCan release<\/a>\u00a0 CBC and jobs<\/a><\/p>\n

            \n
          1. October 15<\/strong><\/li>\n<\/ol>\n

            StatsCan announced the Consumer Price Index rose 1.6 per cent on a year-over-year basis in September, down from 2.0 per cent in August.\u00a0It was the smallest yearly increase since February 2021.\u00a0Gasoline fell by more than 10 per cent in September and was the major contributor to inflation\u2019s deceleration.\u00a0The price of groceries rose 2.4 per cent in September, the same growth rate as August.\u00a0 StatsCan CPI release<\/a>\u00a0 CBC and CPI<\/a><\/p>\n

              \n
            1. October 23<\/strong><\/li>\n<\/ol>\n

              The BoC cut its policy rate another 0.5 per cent (50 basis points).\u00a0After three 0.25 point cuts and this 0.5 point cut, the overnight rate<\/a> has been lowered to 3.75 per cent from its peak of 5 per cent.\u00a0The rate cuts have contributed to the lowering of year-over-year inflation, which sits at 1.6 per cent according to the recent StatsCan release<\/a>.<\/p>\n

              The BoC also released its quarterly Monetary Policy Report outlining its rationale behind its rate cut and expectations for the economy, employment and inflation.\u00a0 BoC rate announcement<\/a>\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 Monetary Policy Report<\/a>\u00a0\u00a0 CBC and BoC rate cut<\/a><\/p>\n

                \n
              1. October 31<\/strong><\/li>\n<\/ol>\n

                The U.S. Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index rose 2.1 per cent on a year-over-year basis in September, down from 2.3 per cent in August.\u00a0Core PCE, which excludes food and energy, was up 2.7 per cent year-over-year, maintaining the same level for the past three months.\u00a0 BEA PCE release<\/a>\u00a0 CNBC and PCE<\/a><\/p>\n

                What\u2019s ahead for November and beyond?<\/strong><\/p>\n

                November began with the release of October\u2019s U.S. nonfarm payroll report.\u00a0Employment was essentially unchanged (+12,000), and the unemployment rate remained at 4.1 per cent.\u00a0The Dow Jones had predicted 100,000 jobs.\u00a0The number of unemployed was little changed at 7.0 million.\u00a0The two hurricanes in the Gulf of Mexico and the Boeing strike contributed to the slower than expected jobs growth.\u00a0Employment increased in health care and government and declined in temporary help services and manufacturing.<\/p>\n

                Equity markets reacted positively to begin the month with all major North American indexes posting positive gains.\u00a0Financial markets are predicting a rate cut of 0.25 per cent at the next two U.S. Federal Reserve announcements this year according to CME Group’s FedWatch tool<\/a>.\u00a0The next interest rate decision will be announced on November 6.\u00a0\u00a0 BLS release<\/a>\u00a0\u00a0 CNBC and jobs<\/a><\/p>\n

                 <\/p>\n

                 <\/p>\n

                 <\/p>\n

                 <\/p>\n

                 <\/p>\n

                 <\/p>\n

                 <\/p>\n

                 <\/p>\n

                 <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

                Last Month in the Markets: October 1 \u2013 31, 2024
                \nWhat happened in October?
                \nRecord highs were set again for the S&P\/TSX Composite, S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average, and the NASDAQ almost achieved the same feat, falling just short of its highest-ever level. Gold continued its winning-ways and rose to its highest price of all-time, ending the month almost 4 per cent higher, and 33 per cent more than its price at the beginning of 2024. Oil rose nearly 4 per cent in the first week before falling again and by the end of the month it was below its 2024 starting price and significantly below the level from one year ago. Bond yields rose more than 250 basis points. <\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":235,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_oasis_is_in_workflow":0,"_oasis_original":0,"_oasis_task_priority":"","_exactmetrics_skip_tracking":false,"_exactmetrics_sitenote_active":false,"_exactmetrics_sitenote_note":"","_exactmetrics_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[15],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-1704","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-market-insights"],"yoast_head":"\nLast Month in Markets - Record Highs and Rate Cuts - October 2024 - Wagner Investment Management Team<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/advisor.wellington-altus.ca\/wagner\/2024\/11\/05\/last-month-in-markets-record-highs-and-rate-cuts-october-2024\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Last Month in Markets - Record Highs and Rate Cuts - October 2024 - Wagner Investment Management Team\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Last Month in the Markets: October 1 \u2013 31, 2024 What happened in October? Record highs were set again for the S&P\/TSX Composite, S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average, and the NASDAQ almost achieved the same feat, falling just short of its highest-ever level. Gold continued its winning-ways and rose to its highest price of all-time, ending the month almost 4 per cent higher, and 33 per cent more than its price at the beginning of 2024. Oil rose nearly 4 per cent in the first week before falling again and by the end of the month it was below its 2024 starting price and significantly below the level from one year ago. 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