{"id":1809,"date":"2025-02-06T18:36:20","date_gmt":"2025-02-06T18:36:20","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/advisor.wellington-altus.ca\/wagner\/?p=1809"},"modified":"2025-02-06T18:36:20","modified_gmt":"2025-02-06T18:36:20","slug":"last-month-in-the-markets-january-2025-a-strong-start-to-2025","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/advisor.wellington-altus.ca\/wagner\/2025\/02\/06\/last-month-in-the-markets-january-2025-a-strong-start-to-2025\/","title":{"rendered":"Last Month in The Markets – January 2025 – A Strong Start to 2025"},"content":{"rendered":"

Last Month in the Markets: January 2-31, 2025\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

(source: Bloomberg https:\/\/www.bloomberg.com\/markets<\/a>, MSCI https:\/\/www.msci.com\/end-of-day-data-search<\/a> and ARG Inc. analysis)<\/p>\n

What happened in January?<\/strong><\/p>\n

Equity performance for the first month of 2025 was strong. If, over the next 11 months, the indexes continue to rise at the same pace that they rose in January, their 2025 returns could potentially outperform their 2024 returns.<\/p>\n

The month included the inauguration of the 47th<\/sup> U.S. President, interest rate announcements, inflation and gross domestic product (GDP) data.<\/p>\n

The most significant action affecting investors will be the threatened tariffs that were introduced on February 1 by President Donald Trump. The effects of tariffs will be felt in future periods.<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

In January, the events and announcements included:<\/p>\n

    \n
  1. January 10<\/strong><\/li>\n<\/ol>\n

    StatsCan\u2019s Labour Force Survey reported that Canadian employment rose by 91,000 in December. The unemployment rate declined slightly by 0.1 percentage points to 6.7 per cent.\u00a0\u00a0 StatsCan release<\/a>\u00a0\u00a0 CBC and LFS<\/a><\/p>\n

    U.S. employment increased by 256,000 in December. The unemployment rate remained constant at 4.1 per cent, and the number of unemployed people did not change in December and sat at 6.9 million.\u00a0 BLS release<\/a><\/p>\n

      \n
    1. January 15<\/strong><\/li>\n<\/ol>\n

      Consumer prices rose 0.4 per cent in December, and the all-items index increased by 2.9 per cent over the last year according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Over 40 per cent of the month\u2019s increase was attributed to energy prices. Gasoline rose 4.4 per cent in December. The annual rate for Core CPI, which excludes more volatile food and energy, was 3.2 per cent and slightly better than expectations of 3.3 per cent.\u00a0\u00a0 BLS CPI release<\/a>\u00a0\u00a0 CNBC and December 2024 CPI<\/a><\/p>\n

        \n
      1. January 17<\/strong><\/li>\n<\/ol>\n

        Although only 9 per cent of S&P 500 companies have reported, earnings, earnings per share and revenue growth are above 10-year averages. If the results continue, it will be the seventeenth consecutive quarter with revenue growth.\u00a0 The Financials sector was the largest contributor to the overall earnings growth rate.\u00a0 FactSet release<\/a><\/p>\n

        China\u2019s economy expanded by 5.4 per cent in the fourth quarter, exceeding expectations. Their full year GDP growth reached 5 per cent as stimulus measures delivered results aligned with overall goals. Future GDP growth may be hampered by tariffs imposed by President Trump, and the effects would likely be felt after the first quarter and beginning in the second half of the year.\u00a0\u00a0 CNBC and China GDP<\/a><\/p>\n

          \n
        1. January 20<\/strong><\/li>\n<\/ol>\n

          Trump was inaugurated as the 47th<\/sup> President of the U.S. in a ceremony on the Rotunda of the Capitol Building. Within the first days of his presidency, over 100 \u00a0executive orders were signed to further his agenda. The Republican party controls the Executive and Legislative branches of government, and the conservative Supreme Court provides a strong mandate enabled by limited resistance.<\/p>\n

            \n
          1. January 24<\/strong><\/li>\n<\/ol>\n

            As of his first Friday after returning to office, Trump\u2019s threatened tariffs had not materialized.\u00a0 A February 1 implementation date for 25 per cent tariffs against Canada and Mexico imports had been repeatedly mentioned. In some statements, Trump has implied that tariffs are designed to facilitate the tightening of borders that permit drugs and illegal immigrants to enter the U.S.<\/p>\n

            President Trump has suggested that firms could relocate production to the U.S. to avoid paying tariffs and that tariffs would generate revenue for the U.S. government. CNN and tariffs<\/a>\u00a0 CBC and tariffs<\/a>\u00a0\u00a0 The Guardian and tariffs<\/a>\u00a0 Global and threats<\/a><\/p>\n

            Fourth quarter earnings for U.S. corporations continued their positive results. After about 80 firms of the S&P 500 had reported, seven of the eleven sectors reported year-over-year earnings growth for Q4, and six of the seven reported double-digit growth.\u00a0 FactSet Insights 250124<\/a><\/p>\n

              \n
            1. January 29<\/strong><\/li>\n<\/ol>\n

              The Bank of Canada lowered its policy interest rate<\/a> by 25 basis points, the U.S. Federal Reserve held rates steady<\/a> and the European Central Bank took the same decision<\/a> as Canada. Progress against inflation was the main justification for continuing to reduce rates, along with the desire to stimulate economic activity. Tariffs have the capability of sparking inflation and reducing economic output, which will likely induce additional monetary policy changes.<\/p>\n

                \n
              1. January 31<\/strong><\/li>\n<\/ol>\n

                The U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis released the Personal Consumption and Expenditures (PCE) price index, the U.S. Federal Reserve\u2019s preferred inflation indicator. On a monthly basis headline PCE rose 0.3 per cent and 2.6 per cent on a year-over-year basis for December. Both figures were aligned with expectations and are above the Fed\u2019s targets.\u00a0 CNBC and PCE<\/a> BEA release<\/a><\/p>\n

                What\u2019s ahead for February and beyond?<\/strong><\/p>\n

                On Saturday, February 1, President Trump signed an executive order that imposed tariffs of 25 per cent on imports from Mexico and Canada.\u00a0 China and Canadian energy will be subject to a 10 per cent import tariff.<\/p>\n

                This order appears to be in violation of the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement, which was signed into law by Donald Trump in 2020 during his first presidency.\u00a0 The near universally held opinion at the time was that open trade between the three countries through the modernization of the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) was positive for each national partner.\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 USMCA explainer<\/a><\/p>\n

                On the morning of February 3, a one-month pause was negotiated by Mexico after committing to deploy troops along its northern border to slow illegal immigration and drug shipments.<\/p>\n

                The specifics of China\u2019s response, other than a challenge at the World Trade Organization (WTO), has not been communicated.<\/p>\n

                Canada introduced a retaliatory schedule of 25 per cent tariffs on American imports<\/a>. After two telephone calls between Trudeau and Trump on the eve of bilateral tariffs, a postponement for 30 days was agreed.\u00a0 Prime Minister Trudeau will implement a $1.3 Billion border security plan, appoint a fentanyl \u201cczar\u201d and designate Mexican drug cartels as terrorist organizations. Approximately 10,000 additional personnel will be deployed to the border.\u00a0 However, in 2024, less than 20 kg of fentanyl was seized entering the U.S. from Canada, while 9,570 kg was seized from Mexico.<\/p>\n

                During the 30 day pause, President Trump may impose additional demands on Canada and Mexico. Investors, governments and businesses have another few weeks to prepare for tariffs or negotiate terms to avoid their implementation.\u00a0 Tariff postponement<\/a>\u00a0 \u00a0Trump tariffs<\/a>\u00a0\u00a0 Canadian response<\/a>\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 Chinese response<\/a>\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 NYT summary<\/a><\/p>\n

                Lastly, for Canadian taxpayers looking to reduce their 2024 taxable income, the deadline for Registered Retirement Savings Plan contributions is March 3.<\/p>\n

                Click to view PDF<\/a><\/span><\/p>\n

                 <\/p>\n

                 <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

                What happened in January?<\/p>\n

                Equity performance for the first month of 2025 was strong. If, over the next 11 months, the indexes continue to rise at the same pace that they rose in January, their 2025 returns could potentially outperform their 2024 returns.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":235,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_oasis_is_in_workflow":0,"_oasis_original":0,"_oasis_task_priority":"","_exactmetrics_skip_tracking":false,"_exactmetrics_sitenote_active":false,"_exactmetrics_sitenote_note":"","_exactmetrics_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[15],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-1809","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-market-insights"],"yoast_head":"\nLast Month in The Markets - January 2025 - A Strong Start to 2025 - Wagner Investment Management Team<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"What happened in January? 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