{"id":1980,"date":"2025-05-06T18:00:59","date_gmt":"2025-05-06T18:00:59","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/advisor.wellington-altus.ca\/wagner\/?p=1980"},"modified":"2025-05-06T18:00:59","modified_gmt":"2025-05-06T18:00:59","slug":"last-month-in-the-markets-april-2025-navigating-trade-wars-and-economic-shifts","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/advisor.wellington-altus.ca\/wagner\/2025\/05\/06\/last-month-in-the-markets-april-2025-navigating-trade-wars-and-economic-shifts\/","title":{"rendered":"Last Month in the Markets – April 2025 – Navigating Trade Wars and Economic Shifts"},"content":{"rendered":"

Last Month in the Markets: April 1 \u2013 30, 2025<\/strong><\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

(source: Bloomberg https:\/\/www.bloomberg.com\/markets<\/a>, MSCI https:\/\/www.msci.com\/end-of-day-data-search<\/a> and ARG Inc. analysis)<\/p>\n

What happened in April?<\/strong><\/p>\n

The difficult month for equities began with the announcement of tariffs by President Donald Trump on April 2.\u00a0 Considering economic theory and history, should the tariff scheme be implemented as proposed, the U.S., Canadian and global economy will likely fall into recession.<\/p>\n

The potential for stagflation<\/a> has also increased dramatically.\u00a0 The tools available to central banks to simultaneously battle rising inflation, high unemployment, and slow economic growth are limited.\u00a0 These sentiments have manifested themselves in equity values in the days and weeks following the announcement.\u00a0 BNN Bloomberg and JP Morgan Chase note<\/a><\/p>\n

Further evidence of challenging times ahead is reflected in the price of gold, which has leapt over 25 per cent in 2025 and over 44 per cent over the past year.\u00a0 Gold has maintained its reputation as a safe-haven<\/a> investment to protect against losses elsewhere, typically when uncertainty threatens equities.<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

Economic reports that influenced markets during April included:<\/strong><\/p>\n

    \n
  1. April 2 \u2013 Trump launches global trade war<\/strong><\/li>\n<\/ol>\n

    At a mid-afternoon press conference from the White House Rose Garden, Donald Trump imposed tariffs<\/a> on imports from 185 countries and territories.\u00a0 Watch CNBC<\/a><\/p>\n

    The calculation<\/a> to determine the tariff rate is the trade deficit divided by the total imports from that country, and then halved.\u00a0 This method is not an accepted practice used by economists and assumes that a trade deficit represents the sum of all unfair practices by the foreign counterpart.\u00a0 Trump stated that the calculation included currency manipulation and other barriers, but these factors are not included in the mathematical formula. A report<\/a> from the Cato Institute, which is based on 2023 World Trade Organization data, calculates China\u2019s trade-weighted average tariffs at 3 per cent. Trump imposed a minimum tariff of 10 per cent, bypassing his own calculation, since it was applied on 115 countries with which the U.S. has a trade surplus.<\/p>\n

      \n
    1. April 4 \u2013 Canadian employment falls in March, rises in U.S.<\/strong><\/li>\n<\/ol>\n

      Employment data was released in Canada and the U.S. for March.\u00a0 StatsCan<\/a> determined Canadian employment fell by 33,000, the first decline since January 2022, the employment rate declined 0.2 per cent and the unemployment rate rose 0.1 per cent to 6.7 per cent.<\/p>\n

      The total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 228,000 in March and the unemployment rate changed little according to the Employment Situation Summary<\/a> from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.\u00a0 Job gains were made in health care, social assistance, transportation and warehousing, and retail trade.\u00a0 Federal government employment declined.<\/p>\n

        \n
      1. April 7 \u2013 Bank of Canada releases its Business Outlook Survey<\/strong><\/li>\n<\/ol>\n

        The Bank of Canada released its Business Outlook Survey<\/a> (BOS) which does not include the latest tariff announcements since information was collected between February 6 and 26.\u00a0 One-third of businesses are including a recession in the next year as one of their planning assumptions.\u00a0 In the previous report, 45 per cent of companies expected to add employees and now only 32 per cent believe they will increase headcount. CBC and BOS<\/a><\/p>\n

          \n
        1. April 10 \u2013 U.S. inflation falls slightly<\/strong><\/li>\n<\/ol>\n

          In more encouraging news, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics announced that the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 2.4 per cent in March on a year-over-year basis.\u00a0 The same measure one month ago was 2.8 per cent.\u00a0 Core CPI which excludes more volatile food and energy, was also 2.8 per cent, which is its lowest level in four years.\u00a0 BLS release<\/a><\/p>\n

            \n
          1. April 15 \u2013 Canadian consumer inflation dips lower<\/strong><\/li>\n<\/ol>\n

            StatsCan announced that the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for March was 2.3 per cent on a year-over-year basis, down from 2.6 per cent in February.\u00a0 The slowdown in price increases was driven by lower prices for travel and gasoline in March.\u00a0 Airfare costs fell by 12 per cent on a year-over-year basis as fewer Canadians travelled to the U.S. last month, when many families head south for March Break.\u00a0 Excluding gasoline, the CPI rose 2.5 per cent following a 2.6 per cent increase (excluding gasoline) in February.\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 StatsCan CPI release<\/a>\u00a0\u00a0 CBC and CPI<\/a><\/p>\n

              \n
            1. April 16 \u2013 Bank of Canada holds rates steady, and ECB drops 0.25 point<\/strong><\/li>\n<\/ol>\n

              The Bank of Canada maintained its target for the overnight rate at 2.75 per cent and released its Monetary Policy Report (MPR).\u00a0 Tiff Macklem, Bank of Canada Governor, indicated that the \u201cdramatic protectionist shift in US trade policy and the chaotic delivery have increased uncertainty, roiled financial markets, diminished global growth prospects and raised inflation expectations\u201d in his opening statement<\/a> to begin the press conference at 10:30 a.m. ET.\u00a0 Macklem outlined two of many scenarios; the first where the tariffs are negotiated away after an unpredictable process and households and businesses are cautious and the second scenario with a long-lasting global trade war.\u00a0 Neither of these, nor any combination of these extremes, provides a predictable and positive path.<\/p>\n

              The European Central Bank (ECB) released its Monetary Policy Statement (MPS) lowering its key lending rates by 0.25 per cent or 25 basis points.\u00a0 According to the ECB’s MPS<\/a> \u201cmost measures of underlying inflation suggest that inflation will settle at around the Governing Council\u2019s 2 per cent medium-term target on a sustained basis.\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 ECB MPS explained<\/a><\/p>\n

                \n
              1. April 24 \u2013 Interest rate speculation provides positivity<\/strong><\/li>\n<\/ol>\n

                It appears that the U.S. Federal Reserve may be more inclined to lower interest rates sooner than previously communicated.\u00a0 Trump has expressed frustration with Fed Chair, Jerome Powell, and had previously hinted at terminating him.\u00a0 Last week, Trump reversed his early opinion.\u00a0 Coincidentally, Powell said that lower rates could arrive this summer, which pleased Trump.\u00a0 An independent central bank that is not beholden to election results is the accepted standard to protect markets and investors, but could still be at risk in the U.S.\u00a0 CNBC on Trump and Powell<\/a><\/p>\n

                \u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n

                  \n
                1. April 25 \u2013 Canadian retail trade declines<\/strong><\/li>\n<\/ol>\n

                  Retail sales decreased by 0.4 per cent to $69.3 billion in February, when four of nine subsectors and seven of ten provinces declined.\u00a0 The largest drops were seen at motor vehicle and parts dealers, and in Quebec and British Columbia.\u00a0 StatsCan and retail sales<\/a><\/p>\n

                    \n
                  1. April 28 \u2013 Canada re-elects Liberals and Prime Minister Mark Carney<\/strong><\/li>\n<\/ol>\n

                    At the end of the five week campaign the Liberals won 169 seats, three short of the number needed to obtain a majority government.\u00a0 The official opposition will be the Conservatives with 144 seats.\u00a0 Elections Canada results<\/a><\/p>\n

                    Early indications are that Prime Minister Mark Carney and President Donald Trump will meet in the near future to discuss trade arrangements between the two countries.<\/p>\n

                      \n
                    1. April 30 \u2013 Gross Domestic Product (GDP) declines<\/strong><\/li>\n<\/ol>\n

                      Canadian real GDP was 0.2 per cent lower in February, following a 0.4 per cent increase in January.\u00a0 Goods producing industries fell 0.6 per cent, services-producing industries slipped 0.1 per cent in February.\u00a0 Mining, oil and gas extraction, construction, real estate, rental and leasing declined while durable goods, finance and insurance rose.\u00a0 StatsCan and GDP<\/a><\/p>\n

                      American GDP decreased at an annual rate of 0.3 per cent in the first quarter of 2025, according to the advance estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis.\u00a0 In the fourth quarter of 2024, real GDP increased 2.4 per cent.\u00a0 BEA release<\/a><\/p>\n

                      What\u2019s ahead for May and beyond?<\/strong><\/p>\n

                      For the last five years the primary driver of markets has been the path of the pandemic, government responses to protect individuals, families and the economy, the path of inflation and central bank actions to temper its rise while avoiding recession.\u00a0 The concerns for economic growth, employment, inflation and rates continue, but the underlying source has changed from the pandemic to a global trade war.<\/p>\n

                      Over the next weeks much of the uncertainty associated with the current situation should be reduced or eliminated if bilateral negotiations between the U.S. and Canada, China, Taiwan, U.K., Germany, France, Japan, and many others are successful.\u00a0 However, new rounds of presidential actions could reignite the type of market turmoil that has been observed since tariff-talk began in earnest in February.<\/p>\n

                      The Bank of Canada and the U.S. Federal Reserve will deliver their next interest rate announcements on June 4 and May 6, respectively, which could provide a steadying counterbalance to trade uncertainties.<\/p>\n

                      Click to view PDF<\/a><\/span><\/p>\n

                       <\/p>\n

                       <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

                      The difficult month for equities began with the announcement of tariffs by President Donald Trump on April 2.\u00a0 Considering economic theory and history, should the tariff scheme be implemented as proposed, the U.S., Canadian and global economy will likely fall into recession.\u00a0<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":235,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_oasis_is_in_workflow":0,"_oasis_original":0,"_oasis_task_priority":"","_exactmetrics_skip_tracking":false,"_exactmetrics_sitenote_active":false,"_exactmetrics_sitenote_note":"","_exactmetrics_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[15],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-1980","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-market-insights"],"yoast_head":"\nLast Month in the Markets - April 2025 - Navigating Trade Wars and Economic Shifts - Wagner Investment Management Team<\/title>\n<meta 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