{"id":2156,"date":"2025-08-07T16:33:38","date_gmt":"2025-08-07T16:33:38","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/advisor.wellington-altus.ca\/wagner\/?p=2156"},"modified":"2025-08-07T16:34:20","modified_gmt":"2025-08-07T16:34:20","slug":"last-month-in-the-markets-july-2025-trade-tensions-rate-resilience-and-equity-elevation","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/advisor.wellington-altus.ca\/wagner\/2025\/08\/07\/last-month-in-the-markets-july-2025-trade-tensions-rate-resilience-and-equity-elevation\/","title":{"rendered":"Last Month in the Markets – July 2025 – Trade Tensions, Rate Resilience, and Equity Elevation"},"content":{"rendered":"

Last Month in the Markets: July 1-31, 2025<\/strong><\/p>\n

\"\"<\/strong><\/p>\n

(source: Bloomberg https:\/\/www.bloomberg.com\/markets<\/a>, MSCI https:\/\/www.msci.com\/end-of-day-data-search<\/a> and ARG Inc. analysis)<\/span><\/p>\n

What happened in July?<\/strong><\/p>\n

Equity indexes had a productive month.\u00a0 New all-time highs were reached several times by the TSX, S&P 500 and the NASDAQ.\u00a0 The Dow nearly achieved the same feat.\u00a0 The effects of President Donald Trump\u2019s global trade war have not had significant effects on nations, yet.\u00a0 For major economies the negotiated or imposed tariffs have not been implemented, or have not been in-place long enough, for inflationary, employment and output effects to have materialized.<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

\u00a0(source: Bloomberg https:\/\/www.bloomberg.com\/markets<\/a> and ARG Inc. analysis)<\/p>\n

Economic reports and geopolitics that influenced markets in July included:<\/strong><\/p>\n

    \n
  1. July 3 \u2013 Trade balances narrow and widen<\/strong><\/li>\n<\/ol>\n

    May\u2019s import, export and trade balance data was released by StatsCan<\/a>.\u00a0 Canada\u2019s merchandise trade deficit with the world narrowed from a record $7.6 billion in April to $5.9 billion in May.\u00a0 Exports to the U.S. (down 0.9 per cent) were down for a fourth consecutive month.\u00a0 Exports to countries other than the U.S. rose 5.7 per cent in May to reach a record high of $47.6 billion, the third consecutive monthly high.\u00a0\u00a0 \u00a0\u00a0CBC and trade<\/a><\/p>\n

    The U.S. trade balance increased more than 18 per cent to $71.5 billion in May (up from $60.3 billion in April) as exports fell according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis release<\/a>.\u00a0 Imports also fell, but by a smaller percentage than exports.\u00a0 In May, the largest trade deficits in billions were with Mexico ($17.1), Vietnam ($14.9) and China ($14.0).\u00a0 Reuters and trade balance<\/a><\/p>\n

      \n
    1. July 3 \u2013 U.S. job growth in June hits the average<\/strong><\/li>\n<\/ol>\n

      The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 147,000 in June, higher than expectations and just below the 12-month average of 146,000.\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 BLS release<\/a>\u00a0 CNBC and jobs data<\/a><\/p>\n

        \n
      1. July 8 \u2013 \u201cBig Beautiful Bill\u201d moves markets lower as debt grows higher <\/strong><\/li>\n<\/ol>\n

        Some of the downturn can be attributed to the approval and signing into law Trump\u2019s \u201cbig, beautiful budget bill\u201d.\u00a0 Projections<\/a> from the Congressional Budget Office have deficits increasing by $3.3 trillion over the next decade.<\/p>\n

          \n
        1. July 10 \u2013 Trade war continues with new letters from the American president<\/strong><\/li>\n<\/ol>\n

          Tariff letters were sent by Trump to major trading partners.\u00a0 \u201cThe resulting uncertainty is preventing companies and countries from making plans as the rule so global commerce give way to a state of chaos\u201d according to a NY Times article<\/a>.\u00a0 Canada and the U.S. had been negotiating toward an agreement before a deadline on July 21 until Trump sent a letter with a 35 per cent tariff and a new deadline of August 1.<\/p>\n

            \n
          1. July 11 \u2013 Canadian jobs growth surprises <\/strong><\/li>\n<\/ol>\n

            StatsCan released employment data for June.\u00a0 Expectations were for little change, however the Canadian economy surprised analysts by adding 83,000 jobs and unemployment fell 0.1 per cent to 6.9 per cent. This was the first increase in employment since January.\u00a0 The unemployment rate had increased for three consecutive months before the decrease in June.\u00a0 StatsCan release<\/a>\u00a0\u00a0 CBC and jobs<\/a><\/p>\n

              \n
            1. July 15 \u2013 Inflation data from Canada and the U.S.<\/strong><\/li>\n<\/ol>\n

              Canada\u2019s Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 1.9 per cent on a year-over-year basis in June, up from a 1.7 per cent increase in May.\u00a0 On a monthly basis, prices rose 0.1 per cent in June.\u00a0 StatsCan release<\/a><\/p>\n

              The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reported that consumer price increases have accelerated in response to President Trump\u2019s trade war and tariffs.\u00a0 In June, prices have risen 2.7 per cent on a year-over-year basis, the same measure in May was 2.4 per cent.\u00a0 Over the course of the month of June, prices rose 0.3 per cent, a significant increase from May\u2019s monthly inflation of 0.1 per cent.<\/p>\n

              The initial impact of the global trade war is reflected in these figures.\u00a0 Economists predict prices to rise further if threatened tariffs are imposed on August 1.\u00a0\u00a0 Despite already increasing inflation, Trump is calling for the U.S. Federal Reserve to lower interest rates at their next announcement on July 30.\u00a0\u00a0 BLS CPI release<\/a>\u00a0 CNBC and CPI<\/a>\u00a0\u00a0 NYTimes and CPI<\/a><\/p>\n

                \n
              1. July 21 \u2013 Bank of Canada\u2019s analysis shows companies expect more tariffs impacts<\/strong><\/li>\n<\/ol>\n

                The Bank of Canada released its Business Outlook Survey for the second quarter of 2025, which was conducted in May.\u00a0 \u201cUncertainty continues to drive cautiousness in outlooks for hiring and investment.\u201d Although some tariff effects have arrived, fewer firms expect future adverse impact.\u00a0 As of May, one-third of firms believe their costs will rise as a result of the trade war.\u00a0 BoC BOS<\/a><\/p>\n

                  \n
                1. July 22 \u2013 Magnificent Seven performance moves indexes higher<\/strong><\/li>\n<\/ol>\n

                  The TSX, S&P 500 and NASDAQ reached new all-time highs, and the Dow sat just 0.2 per cent or just 112 points below its closing record of 45,014 reached back in December.\u00a0 The TSX and S&P 500 have risen seven and nine per cent, respectively, since mid-June.\u00a0 Some instability may present itself this week as large trade deadlines loom, interest rate announcements await and corporate earnings from the Magnificent Seven<\/a> arrive. Factset’s analysis<\/a>.<\/p>\n

                    \n
                  1. July 30 \u2013 Bank of Canada and Federal Reserve hold rates steady <\/strong><\/li>\n<\/ol>\n

                    The Bank of Canada held its policy interest rate unchanged on Wednesday morning.\u00a0 It was the third consecutive interest rate decision that held rates firm at 2.75 per cent.\u00a0 The Canadian economy has shown resilience despite the threats of American tariffs.\u00a0 Inflation has not responded as favourably.\u00a0 Since it appears that the U.S. president will not return to more open trade conditions, and will impose tariffs and other restrictions, the Bank of Canada has not, yet taken steps to stimulate the economy.\u00a0 The Bank made projections based three scenarios: tariffs in-place as of July 27, an escalation in tariffs, and a de-escalation in tariffs. CBC and interest rates<\/a>\u00a0\u00a0 BoC release<\/a><\/p>\n

                    The U.S. Federal Reserve held their federal funds rate unchanged at a range of 4.25 to 4.5 per cent.\u00a0 The announcement included, \u201c\u2026recent indicators suggest that growth of economic activity moderated in the first half of the year. The unemployment rate remains low, and labor market conditions remain solid. Inflation remains somewhat elevated.\u201d\u00a0 All but two of the Governors voted in-favour of maintaining rates at the current level.\u00a0 Fed release<\/a><\/p>\n

                      \n
                    1. July 31 \u2013 Canadian employment and economic growth move in different directions<\/strong><\/li>\n<\/ol>\n

                      On Thursday, StatsCan released jobs data for May showing that \u201cpayroll employment\u201d increased by 15,300 in May, a slight increase from April\u2019s 14,600.\u00a0 Over the past year payroll employment has increased 43,300 as of May.\u00a0 StatsCan and payroll employment<\/a><\/p>\n

                      Canadian gross domestic product edged downward by 0.1 per cent in May, the second consecutive month of decline.\u00a0 Goods producing industries like mining, quarrying, and oil and gas extraction, while manufacturing expanded.\u00a0 Services sectors were unchanged overall.\u00a0 StatsCan and GDP<\/a><\/p>\n

                      What\u2019s ahead for August and beyond?<\/strong><\/p>\n

                      Trump implemented 35 per cent tariffs against Canadian imports that are non-compliant with the Canada U.S. Mexico Agreement (CUSMA) on August 1.\u00a0 Prime Minister Mark Carney released a statement<\/a> outlining the Canadian government\u2019s disappointment and continued commitment to CUSMA.\u00a0 Canadian trade officials travelled to meet with Mexico\u2019s President and trade team to begin the month. Canada\/Mexico cooperation<\/a><\/p>\n

                      Also, before markets opened on August 1, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) signalled that tariffs had already affected the American economy when it reported that just 73,000 jobs were added in July.\u00a0 This is half the number averaged over the last twelve months.\u00a0 The uncertainty of tariff amounts and timing that will increase inflation and decrease economic activity had hiring deferred or avoided. Trump\u2019s immediate response was to fire the leader of the BLS.\u00a0 BLS release<\/a>\u00a0\u00a0 Trump fires BLS leader<\/a><\/p>\n

                      Additionally, Trump has been calling for the U.S. Federal Reserve to lower interest rates, and has threatened the tenure of Fed Chair, Jerome Powell.\u00a0 On the same day that he fired the BLS leader, a Federal Reserve Governor resigned.\u00a0 The replacements at the Fed and BLS could provide some insight into the path of monetary policy and economic reporting for the balance of his presidency.\u00a0 CNBC and Fed and BLS<\/a><\/p>\n

                      Canadian monetary policy leaders operate independently of political pressure and will announce their next interest rate decisions on September 19 and October 29, as will the U.S. Federal Reserve.<\/p>\n

                      The path of trade negotiations and monetary policy will provide significant influence over markets in Canada, the United States and globally.<\/p>\n

                      Click To View PDF<\/a><\/span><\/p>\n

                       <\/p>\n

                       <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

                      Equity indexes had a productive month.\u00a0 New all-time highs were reached several times by the TSX, S&P 500 and the NASDAQ.\u00a0 The Dow nearly achieved the same feat.\u00a0 The effects of President Donald Trump\u2019s global trade war have not had significant effects on nations, yet.\u00a0 For major economies the negotiated or imposed tariffs have not been implemented, or have not been in-place long enough, for inflationary, employment and output effects to have materialized.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":155,"featured_media":2168,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_oasis_is_in_workflow":0,"_oasis_original":0,"_oasis_task_priority":"","_exactmetrics_skip_tracking":false,"_exactmetrics_sitenote_active":false,"_exactmetrics_sitenote_note":"","_exactmetrics_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[15],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-2156","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-market-insights"],"yoast_head":"\nLast Month in the Markets - July 2025 - Trade Tensions, Rate Resilience, and Equity Elevation - Wagner Investment Management Team<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Equity indexes had a productive month.\u00a0 New all-time highs were reached several times by the TSX, S&P 500 and the NASDAQ.\u00a0 The Dow nearly achieved the same feat.\u00a0 The effects of President Donald Trump\u2019s global 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