{"id":2353,"date":"2025-11-07T16:28:18","date_gmt":"2025-11-07T16:28:18","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/advisor.wellington-altus.ca\/wagner\/?p=2353"},"modified":"2025-11-07T16:28:18","modified_gmt":"2025-11-07T16:28:18","slug":"last-month-in-the-markets-october-2025-shutdown-shocks-gold-surges-and-rate-cut-rebounds","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/advisor.wellington-altus.ca\/wagner\/2025\/11\/07\/last-month-in-the-markets-october-2025-shutdown-shocks-gold-surges-and-rate-cut-rebounds\/","title":{"rendered":"Last Month in the Markets \u2013 October 2025 \u2013 Shutdown Shocks, Gold Surges, and Rate Cut Rebounds"},"content":{"rendered":"

Last Month in the Markets: October 1-31, 2025<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

Index returns based on index value (source: Bloomberg https:\/\/www.bloomberg.com\/markets<\/a>, MSCI https:\/\/www.msci.com\/end-of-day-data-search<\/a> and ARG Inc. analysis)<\/span><\/p>\n

What happened in October?<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n

North American equity investors saw strong performance, especially those focused on the U.S. indexes.\u00a0 Although the TSX moved up nearly one per cent, the American indexes moved up substantially more, with the NASDAQ delivering nearly five per cent.<\/p>\n

This performance came with an increase of uncertainty and volatility that spiked in the middle of the month.\u00a0 Further evidence of the resultant flight-to-safety was the peak closing price for gold on October 20, when it reached $4,359 USD.<\/p>\n

The volatility peak, gold rush and a drop in equity index values all closely followed the beginning of the U.S. government shutdown that preceded trading on Monday, October 13.<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

(source: Bloomberg https:\/\/www.bloomberg.com\/markets <\/a>and ARG Inc. analysis)<\/span><\/p>\n

Events that influenced markets in October included:<\/strong><\/p>\n

    \n
  1. October 1 \u2013 U.S. government shut-down began<\/strong><\/li>\n<\/ol>\n

    A government shutdown began after the U.S. Congress was unable to reach an agreement to extend funding to avoid the disruption of services and benefits.\u00a0 One of the casualties of the budget impasse was the scheduled Nonfarm Payroll Report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics.\u00a0 The payroll report is considered \u201cthe King of the Numbers\u201d and is closely watched, along with interest rates and inflation, to inform traders.\u00a0 Reuters and shutdown<\/a><\/p>\n

      \n
    1. October 1 \u2013 The Bank of Canada released its logic on the mid-September interest rate cut<\/strong><\/li>\n<\/ol>\n

      The Bank of Canada released its Summary of Deliberations from its September 17 0.25 point interest rate cut.\u00a0 Since the July Monetary Policy Report, \u201cthe global economy had proven resilient to increased U.S. tariffs in the first half of the year, there were increasing signs that economic growth was slowing.\u201d\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 BoC SoD<\/a><\/p>\n

        \n
      1. October 7 \u2013 Canada\u2019s trade balance affected by U.S. tariffs<\/strong><\/li>\n<\/ol>\n

        Prime Minister Mark Carney and President Donald Trump met in Washington to discuss several issues, including trade between the two countries, as Canada\u2019s trade surplus with the U.S. fell from $7.4 billion in July to $6.4 billion in August.\u00a0 CBC and trade<\/a><\/p>\n

          \n
        1. October 10 \u2013 Canada\u2019s employment numbers rebounded<\/strong><\/li>\n<\/ol>\n

          StatsCan released the latest employment report.\u00a0 Employment increased by 60,000 in September, after declining by more than a combined 100,000 in July and August.\u00a0 The unemployment rate was unchanged by 7.1 per cent.\u00a0 The turnaround from job losses to growth and an increase above analyst expectations is a positive sign for the health of the Canadian economy, despite the on-going trade war and negotiations with the U.S.\u00a0\u00a0 StatsCan employment report<\/a>\u00a0 CPI and employment<\/a><\/p>\n

            \n
          1. October 16 \u2013 Market volatility peaked mid-month<\/strong><\/li>\n<\/ol>\n

            The primary measure of volatility is the CBOE VIX Volatility Index<\/a>.\u00a0 At the highest level since Trump’s Liberation Day, the VIX peaked at 25.31, one week earlier, it was 16.43.\u00a0 The calculation of VIX is complicated, however the 54 per cent increase in one week indicates how quickly and dramatically volatility rose based on Trump\u2019s trade war and the government shutdown.\u00a0 To better understand VIX<\/a>, values below 20 represent stability, and values over 30 indicate greater market fear and uncertainty.<\/p>\n

              \n
            1. October 21 \u2013 Canada\u2019s consumer inflation moved up by one-half percent<\/strong><\/li>\n<\/ol>\n

              StatsCan announced that the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 2.4 per cent on a year-over-year basis in September, up from a 1.9 per cent increase in August.\u00a0 Economists had expected a rise of 2.2 per cent .\u00a0 A slower decline in prices for gasoline and a larger increase in grocery prices conspired together to push the inflation rate higher.\u00a0 The Bank of Canada preferred inflation indicator set is Core CPI, which excludes food and energy.\u00a0 The three measures of Core CPI in September were 2.7 per cent, 3.2 per cent and 3.1 per cent , with 3 per cent as the goal.\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 StatsCan CPI release<\/a>\u00a0\u00a0 CBC and CPI<\/a><\/p>\n

                \n
              1. October 23 \u2013 Trump ended tariff negotiations with Canada, again<\/strong><\/li>\n<\/ol>\n

                Trump ended tariff negotiations on Thursday night<\/a> in reaction to a campaign that includes a video advertisement<\/a> that the Government of Ontario has been airing in the U.S.\u00a0 Trump has attributed the ad to Canada, not Ontario, which may have contributed to his decision to cease trade talks.<\/p>\n

                  \n
                1. October 24 \u2013 U.S. consumer inflation moved upward<\/strong><\/li>\n<\/ol>\n

                  Despite the U.S. government shutdown, the Bureau of Labor Statistics released CPI data for September.\u00a0 On a seasonally adjusted consumer prices rose 0.3 per cent, slightly below the 0.4 per cent measured in August.\u00a0 On a year-over-year basis, the all-items index rose 3.0 per cent versus 2.9 per cent in August.\u00a0 BLS CPI release<\/a>\u00a0\u00a0 CNBC and CPI<\/a><\/p>\n

                    \n
                  1. October 29 \u2013 The Bank of Canada and the U.S. Federal Reserve cut rates<\/strong><\/li>\n<\/ol>\n

                    Monetary policy dominated the North American economic news with the Bank of Canada and the U.S. Federal Reserve releasing interest rate decisions on Wednesday.\u00a0 These central banks both made the identical decision to lower their policy interest rate by 0.25 \u00a0per cent (25 basis points).<\/p>\n

                    For the second consecutive announcement, the Bank of Canada cut its overnight rate, which now sits at 2.25 per cent. At the press conference, Governor Tiff Macklem asserted that monetary policy cannot undo the damage caused by tariffs, but the Bank would respond.\u00a0 The prepared remarks included \u201cCanada\u2019s economy contracted by 1.6% in the second quarter, reflecting a drop in exports and weak business investment amid heightened uncertainty\u201d, \u201cCanada\u2019s labour market remains soft. Employment gains in September followed two months of sizeable losses\u201d, and \u201cCPI inflation was 2.4% in September, slightly higher than the Bank had anticipated.\u201d\u00a0 The Bank of Canada concluded, \u201cWith ongoing weakness in the economy and inflation expected to remain close to the 2 per cent target, Governing Council decided to cut the policy rate by 25 basis points.\u201d\u00a0 BoC release<\/a>\u00a0\u00a0 CBC and BoC<\/a><\/p>\n

                    The U.S. Federal Reserve stated, \u201cAvailable indicators suggest that economic activity has been expanding at a moderate pace. Job gains have slowed this year;\u201d and \u201cInflation has moved up since earlier in the year and remains somewhat elevated,\u201d as the government shutdown severely limited the dissemination of economic data.\u00a0 Nonetheless the Fed lowered the federal funds rate by 0.25 per cent to a range of 3.75 to 4 per cent.\u00a0 Chair of the U.S. Federal Reserve Jerome Powell stated that the Committee would continue to monitor economic indicators, which will be difficult with limited releases available during the shutdown, and that further rate reductions were not a forgone conclusion.\u00a0\u00a0 Fed release<\/a>\u00a0 CNBC and Fed<\/a><\/p>\n

                      \n
                    1. October 30 \u2013 European Central Banks held rates unchanged<\/strong><\/li>\n<\/ol>\n

                      The European Central Bank decided to maintain its interest rates since their consumer inflation has settled around their 2 per cent \u00a0goal and employment has stabilized.\u00a0 The effects of the trade war on European economies are more muted than on North American economies.\u00a0 ECB summary<\/a>\u00a0\u00a0 ECB release<\/a><\/p>\n

                       <\/p>\n

                      What\u2019s ahead for November and beyond?<\/strong><\/p>\n

                      The negotiations for the global trade war will continue to influence markets.\u00a0 U.S.-China relations will have a global effect, and U.S.-Canadian talks will directly affect values here, especially for companies or industries that export to the U.S.<\/p>\n

                      The effects of tariffs on inflation and employment will guide central bank actions for interest rates.<\/p>\n

                      Tuesday, November 4, will see the Carney led Liberals introduce a budget bill, which could provide insights for investors, although a promise of \u201cno surprises\u201d was made. Budget lead-up<\/a><\/p>\n

                      Click to view PDF<\/a><\/p>\n

                       <\/p>\n

                       <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

                      North American equity investors saw strong performance, especially those focused on the U.S. indexes.\u00a0 Although the TSX moved up nearly one per cent, the American indexes moved up substantially more, with the NASDAQ delivering nearly five per cent.\u00a0<\/p>\n

                      This performance came with an increase of uncertainty and volatility that spiked in the middle of the month.\u00a0 Further evidence of the resultant flight-to-safety was the peak closing price for gold on October 20, when it reached $4,359 USD.\u00a0<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":155,"featured_media":2361,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_oasis_is_in_workflow":0,"_oasis_original":0,"_oasis_task_priority":"","_exactmetrics_skip_tracking":false,"_exactmetrics_sitenote_active":false,"_exactmetrics_sitenote_note":"","_exactmetrics_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[15],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-2353","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-market-insights"],"yoast_head":"\nLast Month in the Markets \u2013 October 2025 \u2013 Shutdown Shocks, Gold Surges, and Rate Cut Rebounds - Wagner Investment Management 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