{"id":2367,"date":"2025-12-08T21:33:08","date_gmt":"2025-12-08T21:33:08","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/advisor.wellington-altus.ca\/wagner\/?p=2367"},"modified":"2025-12-15T17:44:06","modified_gmt":"2025-12-15T17:44:06","slug":"last-month-in-the-markets-november-2025-shutdown-shocks-gold-surges-and-rate-cut-rebounds","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/advisor.wellington-altus.ca\/wagner\/2025\/12\/08\/last-month-in-the-markets-november-2025-shutdown-shocks-gold-surges-and-rate-cut-rebounds\/","title":{"rendered":"Last Month in the Markets \u2013 November 2025 \u2013 Shutdown Ends, Data Delays, and Rate Cut Uncertainty"},"content":{"rendered":"

Last Month in the Markets: November 3 \u2013 28, 2025<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

Index returns based on index value (source: Bloomberg https:\/\/www.bloomberg.com\/markets<\/a>, MSCI https:\/\/www.msci.com\/end-of-day-data-search<\/a> and ARG Inc. analysis)<\/span><\/p>\n

What happened in November?<\/strong><\/p>\n

The final, and Thanksgiving shortened, week of the month salvaged what had been a dismal period for North American equity indexes.\u00a0 The S&P 500 and Dow eked out small gains but gains nonetheless after rising more than 3 percent last week.\u00a0 The TSX rose 4 percent in the last week and achieved another all-time high.\u00a0 In the four trading days last week, NASDAQ jumped nearly 5 percent but remained 1\u00bd percent below its level from the end of October.<\/p>\n

Gold continued to hold much of its gains, up about 60 percent from one year ago.\u00a0 Oil continues to slip toward its 52-week low as supply outpaces demand.<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 (source: Bloomberg https:\/\/www.bloomberg.com\/markets<\/a>and ARG Inc. analysis)<\/span><\/p>\n

Events that influenced markets in November included:<\/strong><\/p>\n

1. November 4\u2013 Federal Liberals tabled their budget in the House of Commons<\/strong><\/p>\n

Prime Minister Mark Carney introduced the first Canadian federal budget<\/a> in 18 months.\u00a0 The promised 25% reduction in minimum RRIF withdrawals was not included.\u00a0 Some businesses will be able to immediately expense investment in new facilities, some small corporations\u2019 shares will be RDSP eligible in 2027 and bare trust reporting will finally begin in 2027 for year-ends of December 31, 2026, and later.<\/p>\n

2. November 7 \u2013 Canadian employment bounced-back<\/strong><\/p>\n

The Labour Force Survey from StatsCan reported that employment increased by 67,000 in October and the unemployment rate declined by 0.2% to 6.9%.\u00a0 Wages have increased 3.5% (+ $1.27 to $37.06) on a year-over-year basis in October, following growth of 3.3% in September. StatsCan release<\/a><\/p>\n

Shutdown scuttled U.S. air travel<\/strong><\/p>\n

The U.S. government shutdown and subsequent legal battles created confusion for travellers.\u00a0 The immediate effect was the cancellation of 1,400 flights and the delay of 6,000 more were delayed at the 40 largest airports for safety reasons.\u00a0 BBC and flights<\/a><\/p>\n

3. November 12 \u2013 Government shutdown ended<\/strong><\/p>\n

The longest government shutdown in U.S. history finally ended, and the reopening will take several weeks, if not months, to achieve.<\/p>\n

4. November 14 \u2013 Effects of shutdown reduced likelihood of Fed rate cut<\/strong><\/p>\n

Unfortunately, the positive effect of reopening was tempered for investors.\u00a0 During the shutdown the Bureau of Labor Statistics missed reporting several key economic indicators, and it appears that several may never be reported.\u00a0 Missed reports in 2025 will prevent the interpretation of annualized trends in 2026 when year-over-year comparisons are impossible.\u00a0 Doubt has begun to rise whether the Federal Reserve has sufficient evidence to reduce interest rates. As of November 14 CME’s FedWatch tool<\/a> indicated that the likelihood of a \u00bc point rate cut was slightly less than rates remaining unchanged.\u00a0\u00a0 NYTimes, data and rate cuts<\/a>\u00a0 CNBC and data<\/a><\/p>\n

5. November 17\u2013 Canadian consumer inflation edged upward<\/strong><\/p>\n

StatsCan reported that the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 2.2% on a year-over-year basis in October, slightly lower than the 2.4% increase in September.\u00a0 CPI fell due to lower gasoline prices and a slowing of price increases for groceries.\u00a0 StatsCan CPI release<\/a><\/p>\n

Canadian budget bill passes House vote<\/strong><\/p>\n

The House of Commons approved the 2025 budget bill, which was enabled by four abstentions and the support of Green Party MP, Elizabeth May, the vote passed 170-168.\u00a0 Watch highlights here<\/a><\/p>\n

6. November 20\u2013 U.S. jobs added and returned to April levels<\/strong><\/p>\n

The U.S. Employment Situation Summary revealed that \u201ctotal nonfarm payroll employment edged up by 119,000 in September but has seen little change since April.\u201d Employment rose in health care, food services and social assistance and job losses occurred in transportation and warehousing and in the federal government.\u00a0 The unemployment rate changed little in September at 4.4 percent. BEA current release<\/a><\/p>\n

7. November 21\u2013 Fed released its meeting minutes and rate cuts have become less certain<\/strong><\/p>\n

The U.S. Federal Reserve released the minutes<\/a> from its interest rate meeting of October 28-29 when the federal funds rate was reduced by \u00bc percent.\u00a0 Some committee members stated that lowering the rate could entrench inflation above the 2% goal and signal a reduced commitment to achieving price stability.\u00a0 CME’s FedWatch tool<\/a> predicted a 60% chance that rates would be held steady on December 10th, up from about 50% one week earlier. Reuters and Fed minutes<\/a><\/p>\n

8. November 25 \u2013 More economic releases cancelled by U.S. administration<\/strong><\/p>\n

Three import indicators, jobs, inflation and GDP, have been delayed or cancelled with the now-ended government shutdown as the excuse for withholding data.\u00a0 The tariff scheme and mass deportations has reduced U.S. GDP by 7 percent according to one source, and consensus is growing that bad news is being withheld.\u00a0 MSN<\/a>\u00a0 Yahoo<\/a><\/p>\n

9. November 28\u2013 Canadian GDP rebounds in Q3<\/strong><\/p>\n

\u201cReal gross domestic product (GDP) rose 0.6% in the third quarter of 2025, after falling 0.5% in the second quarter\u201d according to the StatsCan release<\/a> on November 28.\u00a0 During the quarter, imports dropped 2.2% and exports edged upward 0.2%, strengthening the trade balance.\u00a0 Contributing to the GDP rise was increasing crude oil and bitumen exports, government capital investments in weapons systems and hospitals.\u00a0 The annualized GDP growth rate in the quarter was 2.6%.\u00a0 CBC and GDP<\/a><\/p>\n

December rate cut by fed grew more likely<\/strong><\/p>\n

The positive Canadian and scarce U.S. economic news does not account for the recent upswing in equity values.\u00a0 A noteworthy release, the Federal Reserve\u2019s Beige Book<\/a> summary of economic conditions, has CME’s FedWatch tool<\/a> predicting an interest rate cut in December.\u00a0 The decline in overall employment, among other statements and conclusions, was interpreted as leading to a rate cut.\u00a0\u00a0 Lower rates are, generally, a boost to business and personal spending, and push economic expansion and equities higher.<\/p>\n

What\u2019s ahead for December and beyond?<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

The upcoming Bank of Canada and Federal Reserve interest rate decisions, both on December 10, will provide influence over capital markets as the date and announcements approach.\u00a0 The analysis and negotiations associated with USMCA, tariff discussions, and geopolitical events in the Middle East and in Europe with Russia will not go unnoticed.\u00a0 As always, surprises will have the most impact, and typically negatively.<\/p>\n

Click To View PDF<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

The final, and Thanksgiving shortened, week of the month salvaged what had been a dismal period for North American equity indexes. The S&P 500 and Dow eked out small gains but gains nonetheless after rising more than 3 percent last week. The TSX rose 4 percent in the last week and achieved another all-time high. In the four trading days last week, NASDAQ jumped nearly 5 percent but remained 1\u00bd percent below its level from the end of October.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":155,"featured_media":2370,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_oasis_is_in_workflow":0,"_oasis_original":0,"_oasis_task_priority":"","_exactmetrics_skip_tracking":false,"_exactmetrics_sitenote_active":false,"_exactmetrics_sitenote_note":"","_exactmetrics_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[15],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-2367","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-market-insights"],"yoast_head":"\nLast Month in the Markets \u2013 November 2025 \u2013 Shutdown Ends, Data Delays, and Rate Cut Uncertainty - Wagner Investment Management Team<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"The final, and Thanksgiving shortened, week of the month salvaged what had been a dismal period for North American equity indexes. 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